How about a break from politics?
Have you ever wondered about such things as will a man who is Gay date a transgender man or a Lesbian date a transgender woman? Quite a bit has been written about this sort of thing. Here is what I have found. If interested I suggest you read the entire article.
Surprisingly, among the 127 participants open to dating a trans person, almost half selected a trans person of a gender incongruent with their stated sexual orientation. For example, 50% of the trans-inclusive straight women and 28% of the trans-inclusive gay men were willing to date a trans woman, even though one wouldn’t expect either straight women or gay men to be attracted to women. Similarly, 50% of trans-inclusive straight men and 69% of trans-inclusive lesbians said they’d date a trans man, even though both groups are presumably only attracted to women. And 33% of the trans-inclusive bisexual/queer participants said they would only date a trans person of one gender but not the other, even though one may expect this group to be attracted to multiple genders.*
Digging even deeper into the choices of cis [straight] folks willing to date trans people, an interesting pattern of discrimination against trans women in particular emerged among those who would be expected to be attracted to women: 28% of trans-inclusive bisexual/queer/nonbinary folks and 38% of trans-inclusive lesbians said they wouldn’t date a trans woman — only a trans man. There was no similar discrimination against trans men among those expected to be attracted to men: 0% of trans-inclusive gay men and only 5% of trans-inclusive bisexual/queer/nonbinary folks excluded trans men from their dating pool.*
The high rates of trans exclusion from potential dating pools are undoubtedly due in part to cisnormativity, cissexism, and transphobia — all of which lead to lack of knowledge about transgender people and their bodies, discomfort with these unknowns, and fear of being discriminated against by proxy of one’s romantic partner. It is also possible that at least some of the trans exclusion is due to the fact that for some people, sexual orientation might be not (just) about a partner’s gender identity, but attraction to specific body types and/or judgment of reproductive capabilities.*
And what do you call it if a transgender man marries a transgender woman? It would seem heterosexual both ways. I have Googles this, but can't find an example, but my guess is that it happened.
*https://www.them.us/story/cis-trans-dating
Saturday, June 15, 2019
Thursday, June 13, 2019
BALANCING THE BUDGET
Though I am a social libertarian, I am "reasonably" conservative on the Federal Budget as I follow Maynard Keynes in that the government should balance the budget over the period of a business cycle. Therefore, if the economy is as good as we are told, we should be well into paying off the Federal debt now, but instead we got a tax cut for the wealth creating a huge Federal deficits.
Both Parties seem to have abandoned balancing the budget, no matter what they say. Conservatives never seem to get enough national defense so, in order to get large increases in the defense budget, liberals insist on getting increased social benefits. Conservative more than anything want tax cuts for wealthy people and perhaps business so they are willing for the government to go deeply into debt to get tax cuts as it did with the 2017 tax cut at peak economic performance (by Trump) and during the Middle East Wars of Bush-43 that also financed the wars with National Debt.
Conservatives, of course, are willing to cut benefits to the poor. They feel that, contrary to the data, that poor people should get a job whereas most poor people do have jobs (some would like to do away with the minimum wage). Of course, children don’t have paid jobs (seemingly some would like to do away with the child labor laws).* At the same time they feel that workers are overpaid. Thus the working poor seem to get more and more behind and the working middle class is losing ground.
Conservatives like to say they are Christians, but they seem to have missed the part that Jesus was all about helping the poor.**
There is not all bad news. Economists tell us that, if the rate of increase in the deficit is less than the rate of increase in GDP, we could run increasing debt forever. Japan has gone this a couple steps further and blown the increase in debt way above their increase in GDP. They have done this for years and can do this apparently because nearly all their debt is internal.
The US debt is bought about 28% externally as I recall so I don’t know if we could get by doing the Japan course. In fact the problem in the Third World is external which keeps them in trouble as they owe the money to others who want to be paid.
* There are 16.4 million American children living in poverty. That’s nearly one quarter (22.6 percent) of all of our children. More alarming is that the percentage of poor children has climbed by 4.5 percent since the start of the Great Recession in 2007. And poor means poor. For a family of three with one child under 18, the poverty line is $18,400. [December 2017]
(https://www.huffpost.com/entry/americas-greatest-shame-c_b_4238566 )
** I have written before about Jesus and the poor and found a passage saying that poor and poverty are mentioned 446 times in 386 passages in the Bible (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-poor-in-bible.html)
Both Parties seem to have abandoned balancing the budget, no matter what they say. Conservatives never seem to get enough national defense so, in order to get large increases in the defense budget, liberals insist on getting increased social benefits. Conservative more than anything want tax cuts for wealthy people and perhaps business so they are willing for the government to go deeply into debt to get tax cuts as it did with the 2017 tax cut at peak economic performance (by Trump) and during the Middle East Wars of Bush-43 that also financed the wars with National Debt.
Conservatives, of course, are willing to cut benefits to the poor. They feel that, contrary to the data, that poor people should get a job whereas most poor people do have jobs (some would like to do away with the minimum wage). Of course, children don’t have paid jobs (seemingly some would like to do away with the child labor laws).* At the same time they feel that workers are overpaid. Thus the working poor seem to get more and more behind and the working middle class is losing ground.
Conservatives like to say they are Christians, but they seem to have missed the part that Jesus was all about helping the poor.**
There is not all bad news. Economists tell us that, if the rate of increase in the deficit is less than the rate of increase in GDP, we could run increasing debt forever. Japan has gone this a couple steps further and blown the increase in debt way above their increase in GDP. They have done this for years and can do this apparently because nearly all their debt is internal.
The US debt is bought about 28% externally as I recall so I don’t know if we could get by doing the Japan course. In fact the problem in the Third World is external which keeps them in trouble as they owe the money to others who want to be paid.
* There are 16.4 million American children living in poverty. That’s nearly one quarter (22.6 percent) of all of our children. More alarming is that the percentage of poor children has climbed by 4.5 percent since the start of the Great Recession in 2007. And poor means poor. For a family of three with one child under 18, the poverty line is $18,400. [December 2017]
(https://www.huffpost.com/entry/americas-greatest-shame-c_b_4238566 )
** I have written before about Jesus and the poor and found a passage saying that poor and poverty are mentioned 446 times in 386 passages in the Bible (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-poor-in-bible.html)
Tuesday, June 11, 2019
WHERE IS THE ECONOMY HEADED?
A question a lot of us would like to see answered is where is our economy headed. Steve Rattner thinks it might be into a recession.* Below is his figure from Morning Joe showing that every time the Yield Curve drops below zero, a recession has followed. You can see that this has happened recently (at the extreme right in the figure). Rattner attributes this to the ongoing Global Tariff War.
(Click on figure to enlarge)
The yield curve is the difference in interest rates between the government’s shorter term debt and its longer term debt.*
MANUFACTURING
Among the factors indicating economic problems is the decline in the manufacturing index.
“The Trump bump to manufacturing in the US which takes place in many swing states has already petered out,” Binky Chadha, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank, said in a research note. “In our view, a continued decline and in particular a falling below 50 will be hard to spin as anything but a manufacturing recession.”
The ISM reading for May came in at 52.1, essentially a percentage reading representing manufacturers who plan to increase activity. That means a reading under 50 means more companies are planning to decrease activity.
The index rose from 51.8 when Trump took office up to a peak of 60.8 in August 2018 during a year in which U.S. GDP increased nearly 3% and posted some of the strongest levels of activity since the recovery began in mid-2009**
TRUCKING
But that is not all. there also are problems in the trucking industry.
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for March showed its first negative reading in several years, reflecting a softening environment for carriers.
The March TCI reading fell to -1.18 driven by easing freight rates and sluggish, though still positive, demand. Active truck utilization and the truckload rate have also continued to ease. The weakness in truckload rates was attributed mostly to spot rates, but FTR also found that the contract rate outlook has turned slightly negative.
FTR’s outlook for loadings growth has been revised downward from previous forecasts with year-over-year growth now expected to be under 2%.
...............................................................
This trend was also spotted by analysts at ACT Research who noted in the May Freight Forecast that slowing freight and increased tractor sales will likely have a downward effect on freight rates.
“Freight remains soft, as expected, and while we see reasons for recovery in the second half of 2019, escalating trade tensions raise the risk of freight recession,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice president and senior analyst.***
FARMING
Then, of course, there is farming where problems due to tariffs are acute (particularly soy beans), but there are also problems related to natural disasters such as Hurricanes Michael and Florence plus the midwestern floodings. Though the relief bill was held up in the House by two Republican Representatives, it finally has passed on a rare bipartisan vote in early June.****
The fight in Washington has turned the nation’s farmers into collateral damage. The disaster bill includes $3 billion in direct aid that covers not only cotton farms in Georgia, but also cattle ranches in the Midwest that suffered historic flooding, vineyards in California hurt by wildfires and sweet potato fields swamped by Hurricane Florence. The Farm Bureau, an industry group, estimates losses to the agricultural sector at $8.5 billion.****
“It’s a reflection of our broken politics, but also of how few things are getting done these days,” said Brendan Buck, a former top advisor to House Speaker Paul Ryan. “Any legislation that matters is now a hostage to be taken. When so few bills become law, there’s much greater incentive to hold out to get what you want in there.”****
But not all information is bad. For example job hirings hit a new record in April
Hirings increased to 5.9 million for the month, a gain of 240,000 from March, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey indicated. The hiring rate rose to 3.9%, an increase of one-tenth of a percentage point. The total hirings was the most recorded in the data series’ history going back to December 2000. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/10/jolts-hirings-hit-record-high-1point6-million-more-jobs-than-unemployed.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/11/manpowergroup-hiring-expected-to-hit-highest-in-13-years-during-q3.html)
* https://stevenrattner.com/2019/06/steve-rattners-morning-joe-charts-trumps-erratic-policies-stoke-recession-fears/
** https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/11/that-big-trump-bump-in-manufacturing-is-pretty-much-gone-now.html
*** https://www.truckinginfo.com/331832/trucking-industry-hits-the-doldrums-with-neutral-economic-outlook
**** https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/07/farmers-feel-the-pain-as-lawmakers-haggle-over-disaster-relief-plan.html
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/disaster-bill-house-passes-long-delayed-19-1-billion-aid-package-sending-it-to-trumps-desk/
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/07/heres-where-the-jobs-are-in-one-chart.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/07/could-you-save-money-by-refinancing-your-mortgage.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/09/us-trade-deficit-widens-to-50-billion-in-march.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/americans-financial-happiness-hits-new-high-long-running-index-shows.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/heidi-heitkamp-trump-has-failed-rural-americas-reagan-test.htm
The yield curve is the difference in interest rates between the government’s shorter term debt and its longer term debt.*
MANUFACTURING
Among the factors indicating economic problems is the decline in the manufacturing index.
“The Trump bump to manufacturing in the US which takes place in many swing states has already petered out,” Binky Chadha, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank, said in a research note. “In our view, a continued decline and in particular a falling below 50 will be hard to spin as anything but a manufacturing recession.”
The ISM reading for May came in at 52.1, essentially a percentage reading representing manufacturers who plan to increase activity. That means a reading under 50 means more companies are planning to decrease activity.
The index rose from 51.8 when Trump took office up to a peak of 60.8 in August 2018 during a year in which U.S. GDP increased nearly 3% and posted some of the strongest levels of activity since the recovery began in mid-2009**
TRUCKING
But that is not all. there also are problems in the trucking industry.
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for March showed its first negative reading in several years, reflecting a softening environment for carriers.
The March TCI reading fell to -1.18 driven by easing freight rates and sluggish, though still positive, demand. Active truck utilization and the truckload rate have also continued to ease. The weakness in truckload rates was attributed mostly to spot rates, but FTR also found that the contract rate outlook has turned slightly negative.
FTR’s outlook for loadings growth has been revised downward from previous forecasts with year-over-year growth now expected to be under 2%.
...............................................................
This trend was also spotted by analysts at ACT Research who noted in the May Freight Forecast that slowing freight and increased tractor sales will likely have a downward effect on freight rates.
“Freight remains soft, as expected, and while we see reasons for recovery in the second half of 2019, escalating trade tensions raise the risk of freight recession,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice president and senior analyst.***
FARMING
Then, of course, there is farming where problems due to tariffs are acute (particularly soy beans), but there are also problems related to natural disasters such as Hurricanes Michael and Florence plus the midwestern floodings. Though the relief bill was held up in the House by two Republican Representatives, it finally has passed on a rare bipartisan vote in early June.****
The fight in Washington has turned the nation’s farmers into collateral damage. The disaster bill includes $3 billion in direct aid that covers not only cotton farms in Georgia, but also cattle ranches in the Midwest that suffered historic flooding, vineyards in California hurt by wildfires and sweet potato fields swamped by Hurricane Florence. The Farm Bureau, an industry group, estimates losses to the agricultural sector at $8.5 billion.****
“It’s a reflection of our broken politics, but also of how few things are getting done these days,” said Brendan Buck, a former top advisor to House Speaker Paul Ryan. “Any legislation that matters is now a hostage to be taken. When so few bills become law, there’s much greater incentive to hold out to get what you want in there.”****
But not all information is bad. For example job hirings hit a new record in April
Hirings increased to 5.9 million for the month, a gain of 240,000 from March, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey indicated. The hiring rate rose to 3.9%, an increase of one-tenth of a percentage point. The total hirings was the most recorded in the data series’ history going back to December 2000. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/10/jolts-hirings-hit-record-high-1point6-million-more-jobs-than-unemployed.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/11/manpowergroup-hiring-expected-to-hit-highest-in-13-years-during-q3.html)
* https://stevenrattner.com/2019/06/steve-rattners-morning-joe-charts-trumps-erratic-policies-stoke-recession-fears/
** https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/11/that-big-trump-bump-in-manufacturing-is-pretty-much-gone-now.html
*** https://www.truckinginfo.com/331832/trucking-industry-hits-the-doldrums-with-neutral-economic-outlook
**** https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/07/farmers-feel-the-pain-as-lawmakers-haggle-over-disaster-relief-plan.html
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/disaster-bill-house-passes-long-delayed-19-1-billion-aid-package-sending-it-to-trumps-desk/
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/07/heres-where-the-jobs-are-in-one-chart.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/07/could-you-save-money-by-refinancing-your-mortgage.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/09/us-trade-deficit-widens-to-50-billion-in-march.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/americans-financial-happiness-hits-new-high-long-running-index-shows.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/heidi-heitkamp-trump-has-failed-rural-americas-reagan-test.htm
Thursday, June 6, 2019
INTEREST RATES: THE SPOILED GENERATION
I have to mention that I have been expecting runaway inflation since 2001. In reality, interest rates have been near the lower bound (0%) since 2008.
I don't know if you have noticed, but interest rates seem to be at or near all-time lows. The 30 yr mortgage rate is listed as 3.75% and the 15 yr as 3.125% as reported by Wells Fargo.* From 1971 through 2008, the lowest 30 yr loan rate didn't drop below 5%. It is only since 2011 that we seen the average annual mortgage rate drop below 4% and then for 5 of the 7 yrs.
The 10 yr Treasury interest rate is 2.131% and threatening to drop below 2%. Even the 30 yr Treasury is below 3% at 2.644%.**
I recall that, when I bought my first house back in 1963, I was able to assume a home loan at 5.0%, and I was so happy to get a loan less than 7%.
The Federal Funds rate dropped to near zero in March of 2009 but that was when we had a financial collapse of the Great Recession.
Below is a chart of the Federal funds rate for the last 62 years.*** Note that the amount of time the Federal Funds Rate has been below 3% over this time is very small, especially since 1963. During my adulthood, I wouldn't buy a 5 yr Treasury below 5%. In the last decade, I bought a 30 yr Treasury that paid 5%. I soon could get three years equivalent of interest in capital gains by selling the bond and did so. I figured things would certainly go back to normal in 3 yrs. Mistake, as it turned out.
(Click on figure to enlarge)
The shocker is that people and companies are complaining that the current Federal Funds Rate is too high! Our president has said he wants them to lower it by a percent (but then he has variable rate loans so he would benefit financially from such a drop). I think people and companies are spoiled because of the exceptionally low rates after the great recession. For a brief period in 1981, the Federal Funds Rate got above 20%!
For a history of mortgage rates, see: https://bebusinessed.com/history/history-of-mortgages/
* https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/
https://www.valuepenguin.com/mortgages/historical-mortgage-rates#nogo
** https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/
*** https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart
I don't know if you have noticed, but interest rates seem to be at or near all-time lows. The 30 yr mortgage rate is listed as 3.75% and the 15 yr as 3.125% as reported by Wells Fargo.* From 1971 through 2008, the lowest 30 yr loan rate didn't drop below 5%. It is only since 2011 that we seen the average annual mortgage rate drop below 4% and then for 5 of the 7 yrs.
The 10 yr Treasury interest rate is 2.131% and threatening to drop below 2%. Even the 30 yr Treasury is below 3% at 2.644%.**
I recall that, when I bought my first house back in 1963, I was able to assume a home loan at 5.0%, and I was so happy to get a loan less than 7%.
The Federal Funds rate dropped to near zero in March of 2009 but that was when we had a financial collapse of the Great Recession.
Below is a chart of the Federal funds rate for the last 62 years.*** Note that the amount of time the Federal Funds Rate has been below 3% over this time is very small, especially since 1963. During my adulthood, I wouldn't buy a 5 yr Treasury below 5%. In the last decade, I bought a 30 yr Treasury that paid 5%. I soon could get three years equivalent of interest in capital gains by selling the bond and did so. I figured things would certainly go back to normal in 3 yrs. Mistake, as it turned out.
The shocker is that people and companies are complaining that the current Federal Funds Rate is too high! Our president has said he wants them to lower it by a percent (but then he has variable rate loans so he would benefit financially from such a drop). I think people and companies are spoiled because of the exceptionally low rates after the great recession. For a brief period in 1981, the Federal Funds Rate got above 20%!
For a history of mortgage rates, see: https://bebusinessed.com/history/history-of-mortgages/
* https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/
https://www.valuepenguin.com/mortgages/historical-mortgage-rates#nogo
** https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/
*** https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart
Friday, May 31, 2019
NOW TARIFFS TO STOP ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION!
Well, President Trump is at it again tweeting that he will impose a tariff on all Mexican goods entering the U.S.:
On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP. The Tariff will gradually increase [at a 5% increase /month] until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied,..*
You have to wonder what will they think of next? I have the feeling that this is another one of those snap decisions that will die a quiet death like Trumps proposed 10% tax cut for the middle class.**
There is speculation that Trump has done this to draw attention away from the Report.
If not, he has very bad instincts because if he ruins the economy of Mexico, that will just restart Mexican migration to the States. It goes along with his stopping of aid to Central America. If the economy there gets even worse, more people will come, which seems to be happening.***
* https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/30/us/politics/trump-mexico-tariffs.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/11/they-are-lies-until-proven-otherwise.html
*** https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/analysis-slashing-central-america-aid-could-drive-more-migrants-u-n989741
On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP. The Tariff will gradually increase [at a 5% increase /month] until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied,..*
You have to wonder what will they think of next? I have the feeling that this is another one of those snap decisions that will die a quiet death like Trumps proposed 10% tax cut for the middle class.**
There is speculation that Trump has done this to draw attention away from the Report.
If not, he has very bad instincts because if he ruins the economy of Mexico, that will just restart Mexican migration to the States. It goes along with his stopping of aid to Central America. If the economy there gets even worse, more people will come, which seems to be happening.***
* https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/30/us/politics/trump-mexico-tariffs.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/11/they-are-lies-until-proven-otherwise.html
*** https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/analysis-slashing-central-america-aid-could-drive-more-migrants-u-n989741
REPUBLICAN OVER-THE-TOP LANGUAGE
I must say that Republicans are getting scary:
Republicans threaten civil war:
[Senator from Utah Sen. Mike] Lee’s distorted view of the U.S. Constitution, and the legitimacy of the Federal government, is shared by the Koch brothers. And like the Koch brothers, Lee demands, and expects, a quick end to most of the Federal government’s agencies, departments and programs; he claims it is the only prescription to prevent civil war. In that sense, Lee is a Koch acolyte of the first order. It is true the Koch brothers do not threaten violence or warn of civil rebellion against the government, but they did co-create and contribute handsomely to the teabagger movement and Republicans who warned of civil war if they did not get their way.
.................................................................
Lee warned that the only way Democrats can avert violence is if they end their support for a long list of federal programs, agencies, and departments that also happen to be on the Koch brothers hit list going back three decades. Just a sampling of what Democrats have to willingly help eliminate to stave off a violent civil war according to Lee includes, but is not limited to: The interstate highway system, funding for K-12 public education, federal higher education accreditation, early childhood education, the Department of Commerce, housing policy, workforce regulations, and what the typically-Mormon Lee labeled the illegal “huge glut of federally owned land.”*
Lee also believes that federal child labor laws, Social Security, and Medicare are patently unconstitutional. According to his mind, the only means of avoiding civil war is ignoring that part of the Constitution granting authority to Congress to appropriate funds for the general welfare and establishes the federal government as a legitimate governing entity.*
President Trump also is in the act (not surprisingly), liberally using the word Treason;
Early on, Trump was relatively restrained in his treason talk. He even criticized Kim Jong Un’s liberal use of the treason charge. (Trump now calls Kim his “friend.”) He began applying the label more to the Mueller probe, and FBI officials, in 2018. He determined that “leakers are traitors” and said critical news coverage of his talks with Kim was “almost treasonous.” He said an anonymous op-ed writer and the New York Times both committed treason. He said Democrats who did not applaud at his State of the Union address were “Un-American. Somebody said, ‘treasonous.’ ”**
More recently, Trump seems to be edging up in his use of the word Treason, though he doesn't know what the word means.
Asked at a White House event which of his adversaries he had in mind when he accused them of treason, he said, "A number of people. They have unsuccessfully tried to take down the wrong person." He then specified former FBI director James Comey, former acting FBI director Andrew McCabe, former FBI lawyer Lisa Page, and former FBI agent Peter Strzok. (Underlining added)
....................................................................
Here's what the Constitution says (Article III, Section 3): "Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort."
"Enemy" means a country or an entity that has declared war or is in a state of open war against the US. "Aid and comfort" must be something material, not words of encouragement
I worry this sort of language is going to get someone hurt.
* https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/12/2/1815431/-Senate-Republican-warns-of-civil-war-if-Democrats-continue-supporting-the-Federal-government?detail=emaildkre
** https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/for-trump-the-name-of-the-season-is-treason/2019/04/12/f8c5c44c-5d33-11e9-a00e-050dc7b82693_story.html?utm_term=.ef939a824c0e
*** https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-doesn-t-understand-what-treason-means-n1009636
Republicans threaten civil war:
[Senator from Utah Sen. Mike] Lee’s distorted view of the U.S. Constitution, and the legitimacy of the Federal government, is shared by the Koch brothers. And like the Koch brothers, Lee demands, and expects, a quick end to most of the Federal government’s agencies, departments and programs; he claims it is the only prescription to prevent civil war. In that sense, Lee is a Koch acolyte of the first order. It is true the Koch brothers do not threaten violence or warn of civil rebellion against the government, but they did co-create and contribute handsomely to the teabagger movement and Republicans who warned of civil war if they did not get their way.
.................................................................
Lee warned that the only way Democrats can avert violence is if they end their support for a long list of federal programs, agencies, and departments that also happen to be on the Koch brothers hit list going back three decades. Just a sampling of what Democrats have to willingly help eliminate to stave off a violent civil war according to Lee includes, but is not limited to: The interstate highway system, funding for K-12 public education, federal higher education accreditation, early childhood education, the Department of Commerce, housing policy, workforce regulations, and what the typically-Mormon Lee labeled the illegal “huge glut of federally owned land.”*
Lee also believes that federal child labor laws, Social Security, and Medicare are patently unconstitutional. According to his mind, the only means of avoiding civil war is ignoring that part of the Constitution granting authority to Congress to appropriate funds for the general welfare and establishes the federal government as a legitimate governing entity.*
President Trump also is in the act (not surprisingly), liberally using the word Treason;
Early on, Trump was relatively restrained in his treason talk. He even criticized Kim Jong Un’s liberal use of the treason charge. (Trump now calls Kim his “friend.”) He began applying the label more to the Mueller probe, and FBI officials, in 2018. He determined that “leakers are traitors” and said critical news coverage of his talks with Kim was “almost treasonous.” He said an anonymous op-ed writer and the New York Times both committed treason. He said Democrats who did not applaud at his State of the Union address were “Un-American. Somebody said, ‘treasonous.’ ”**
More recently, Trump seems to be edging up in his use of the word Treason, though he doesn't know what the word means.
Asked at a White House event which of his adversaries he had in mind when he accused them of treason, he said, "A number of people. They have unsuccessfully tried to take down the wrong person." He then specified former FBI director James Comey, former acting FBI director Andrew McCabe, former FBI lawyer Lisa Page, and former FBI agent Peter Strzok. (Underlining added)
....................................................................
Here's what the Constitution says (Article III, Section 3): "Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort."
"Enemy" means a country or an entity that has declared war or is in a state of open war against the US. "Aid and comfort" must be something material, not words of encouragement
I worry this sort of language is going to get someone hurt.
* https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/12/2/1815431/-Senate-Republican-warns-of-civil-war-if-Democrats-continue-supporting-the-Federal-government?detail=emaildkre
** https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/for-trump-the-name-of-the-season-is-treason/2019/04/12/f8c5c44c-5d33-11e9-a00e-050dc7b82693_story.html?utm_term=.ef939a824c0e
*** https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-doesn-t-understand-what-treason-means-n1009636
Tuesday, May 28, 2019
GOP TAX MYTH
Republicans keep insisting that tax cuts promote economic growth even though this is proven to be a myth.* The best growth followed the tax increases of President George H.W. Bush ("read my lips no new taxes") followed by another big tax increase by President Bill Clinton.
Much of the tax cuts on companies has been wasted by companies buying back massive amount of stock ($800 billion in 2018).**
Buyback Monsters
Share count reduction since 2010:**
Travelers: 51 percent
AutoZone: 48 percent
Kohl’s: 46 percent
Northrup Grumman: 45 percent
Lowe’s: 44 percent
Gap: 42 percent
IBM: 32 percent
Apple: 26 percent
Source: S&P Global
Home Depot has bought back about 35% of its stock making a phony increase in the earnings per share without any increase in revenues or profits.** Also, such massive buybacks mean the company is slowly liquidating, whether that is the purpose.
A few excerpts from a particularly good recent (April 2019) analysis*** of the 2017 tax cuts follow:
The Trump tax cuts cost the government even more. The Act increases the deficit by $1 trillion over the next 10 years according to the Joint Committee on Taxation. It says the Act will increase growth by 0.7% annually, reducing some of the revenue loss from the $1.5 trillion in tax cuts.
........................................................
The JCT analysis is probably the most accurate since it only analyzes the cost of the tax cuts themselves.
........................................................
Increase in sovereign debt dampens economic growth in the long run. Investors see it as a tax increase on future generations. That's especially true if the ratio of debt-to-GDP is near 77%. That's the tipping point, according to a study by the World Bank. It found that every percentage point of debt above this level costs the country 1.7% in growth. The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio was 104% before the tax cuts.
.......................................................
Many large corporations confirmed they won't use the tax cuts to create jobs. Corporations are sitting on a record $2.3 trillion in cash reserves, double the level in 2001. The CEOs of Cisco, Pfizer, and Coca-Cola would instead use the extra cash to pay dividends to shareholders. The CEO of Amgen will use the proceeds to buy back shares of stock. In effect, the corporate tax cuts will boost stock prices but won't create jobs.***
This blog has had many discussions on taxes and tax cuts, see: http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/08/taxes-discussions-on-reunite.html
* https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/09/28/i-helped-create-the-gop-tax-myth-trump-is-wrong-tax-cuts-dont-equal-growth/?utm_term=.afb5b3bd82f6
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/14/tax-cut-economic-boom-republicans-584197
** https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/27/companies-keep-buying-their-own-stock-in-force-led-by-buyback-monsters-like-home-depot.html
*** https://www.thebalance.com/trump-s-tax-plan-how-it-affects-you-4113968
Much of the tax cuts on companies has been wasted by companies buying back massive amount of stock ($800 billion in 2018).**
Buyback Monsters
Share count reduction since 2010:**
Travelers: 51 percent
AutoZone: 48 percent
Kohl’s: 46 percent
Northrup Grumman: 45 percent
Lowe’s: 44 percent
Gap: 42 percent
IBM: 32 percent
Apple: 26 percent
Source: S&P Global
Home Depot has bought back about 35% of its stock making a phony increase in the earnings per share without any increase in revenues or profits.** Also, such massive buybacks mean the company is slowly liquidating, whether that is the purpose.
A few excerpts from a particularly good recent (April 2019) analysis*** of the 2017 tax cuts follow:
The Trump tax cuts cost the government even more. The Act increases the deficit by $1 trillion over the next 10 years according to the Joint Committee on Taxation. It says the Act will increase growth by 0.7% annually, reducing some of the revenue loss from the $1.5 trillion in tax cuts.
........................................................
The JCT analysis is probably the most accurate since it only analyzes the cost of the tax cuts themselves.
........................................................
Increase in sovereign debt dampens economic growth in the long run. Investors see it as a tax increase on future generations. That's especially true if the ratio of debt-to-GDP is near 77%. That's the tipping point, according to a study by the World Bank. It found that every percentage point of debt above this level costs the country 1.7% in growth. The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio was 104% before the tax cuts.
.......................................................
Many large corporations confirmed they won't use the tax cuts to create jobs. Corporations are sitting on a record $2.3 trillion in cash reserves, double the level in 2001. The CEOs of Cisco, Pfizer, and Coca-Cola would instead use the extra cash to pay dividends to shareholders. The CEO of Amgen will use the proceeds to buy back shares of stock. In effect, the corporate tax cuts will boost stock prices but won't create jobs.***
This blog has had many discussions on taxes and tax cuts, see: http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/08/taxes-discussions-on-reunite.html
* https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/09/28/i-helped-create-the-gop-tax-myth-trump-is-wrong-tax-cuts-dont-equal-growth/?utm_term=.afb5b3bd82f6
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/14/tax-cut-economic-boom-republicans-584197
** https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/27/companies-keep-buying-their-own-stock-in-force-led-by-buyback-monsters-like-home-depot.html
*** https://www.thebalance.com/trump-s-tax-plan-how-it-affects-you-4113968
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