WHAT IF THE SENATE SHOULD PASS A HEALTH CARE BILL?

The House of Representatives narrowly passed a health care bill and sent it to the Senate.  The Senate has been massaging this bill and voted today on a procedural vote to consider a bill.*

Among the variants to be considered by the Senate is:
The chamber could then field some version of the replacement plan that stalled out recently, which may also fail. After that may come a vote for a partial, "skinny" repeal that would eliminate the individual mandate penalty, the employer mandate penalty and the medical device tax, according to NBC.    These mandates and device tax were made in an attempt by Democrats to pay for the ACA.   Republicans hate to pay for health care.  Reagan got a law that Emergency Rooms in hospitals must take all comers, and he left it up to the hospitals to find a way to pay for this.  George W. Bush (Bush-43) got Medicare D passed on prescription drugs, but also didn't pay for it so any deficit went "on the cuff."  It as no surprise that Republicans don't want to pay for the ACA.

 If the Senate passes a health care bill, it will be different from the House bill in important places so it gets sent back to the House to vote on it.  If the House doesn't pass the Senate Bill, the bill will go to a Conference Committee, presumably to resolve differences between the two Houses.

Here the fun can start because anything, absolutely anything, can happen to resolving the disputes, including letting the the bill "die in committee,"**  something not unusual even if the bills passed both houses by large margins.  Usually the Conference Committee "splits the difference" in some way between the two house bills, though I know of one case where the Conference Committee voted to increase the budget of a Bureau above what either the House or Senate bills provided.  At any rate, what comes out of the Conference Committee can be quite different from either the House or Senate bills.

If the Conference Committee comes to a conclusion and forms a revised bill, it then goes back to the houses for a vote where a member of the first house to consider the bill can recommend it go back to Conference Committee.  Also a member of the Senate can move to stricken some item from the Conference Committee bill, but 60 Senators can wave the rule.  In my experience, the House and the Senate usually vote to approve the Conference Committee bill.**

Don't hold your breath waiting for a  health bill.

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/25/sen-rand-paul-plans-to-support-republican-obamacare-vote.html
** https://www.thoughtco.com/how-bills-become-laws-3322300
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_conference_committee

JULY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE UP, NOT DOWN

The July Consumer Confidence Index yielded a nice surprise:

Economists polled by Reuters forecast the major indicator of consumer optimism to decline to 116.5 in July. Instead, consumer confidence remains at the highest level since July 2001.
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The Consumer Confidence Index beat expectations last month as well. In July, consumers said jobs were even more "plentiful" than last month's report, up to 34.1 percent from 32 percent, while also saying jobs were not as "hard to get."

(Click on figure to enlarge)

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/25/july-us-consumer-confidence.html

PUTIN'S LAP DOG

President Trump sat beside  Akie Abe, wife of the Shinzo Abe who is the Prime Minister of Japan, at the Couples Only dinner of the G20 Conference.  Japan has the 3rd largest economy in the world.  Incredibly, Trump got up from the table and went around to visit with Vladimir Putin, dictator of Russia.

It was a huge insult to Akie Abe.  One more insult to a woman, and one from a major country.  Trump says she didn't speak English, but he had a Japanese translator with him.  Of course Putin had a Russian translator with him.  As Trump's translator only was good in Japanese, Putin's translator was the only one to take notes or recordings.  So what was the difference?

It is unbelievable that Trump's backers then claimed that Akie Abe snubbed President Trump!  The rudeness of all this is unbelievable.  Talk about the "ugly American."

I don't know how you feel about this, but I''m embarrassed for my country that our President is so obsequious to Putin.   There is word from the Russian Foreign Minister that they may have met several other times at the Congress, e.g. in the bathroom (what we used to call "pissing partners.").

Trump says he was going to talk to his wife who was sitting next to Putin, but talked for about 15 min. with Putin.  Others say the visit was mor like an hour.  Everyone at the dinner noticed it which is why we know about it.

It would be nice if Trump was so smitten with his wife that he couldn't stay put with one of the major dignitaries at the dinner, but Trump managed to survive 3 or 4 months while his wife Malania stayed with their son in New York so he wouldn't have to change schools in the middle of a term.

Well, it looks like congress is overwhelmingly going to pass a sanctions bill on Russia, North Korea and Iran.*  Will Trump veto it?  Will congress override his veto (looks like they could).  Trump says this bill will restrict his powers because he has to go back to congress before he can get rid of any sanctions on Russia.  President Trump, that's exactly what its all about.

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/22/congress-reaches-bipartisan-agreement-on-sweeping-russia-sanctions.html

DEMOCRATIC ECONOMIC INITIATIVES AND THE TRUMP BASE

I've tried to think of ways that the Democratic Party might lure back the white male worker.  After considerable thought, I conclude there probably isn't a way.  Just consider our previous President, Barak Obama.  There was the Birther Movement among Republicans that Obama wasn't born in the U,S.  Even when he finally released the "long form" of his birth certificate the doubters said it was a forgery.  There was nothing you could do to get them to admit Obama was born in the U.S. to an American mother.  Even as recently as August of 2016 before the election as many as 72% of Republicans felt that Obama was not legitimate.  This percentage is far more than President Trump's base.

These same people, however, were ready to accept Senator Ted Cruse as legitimate even though he was born in Canada because he had an American mother.  So by analogy even if Obama was born outside America, it was to an American mother so if Cruz is legitimate, Obama should be also, but a double standard is clear.

The problem is that these workers feel the Democratic Party favors women, minorities, and Gays.  So the Democratic Party would have to abandon these groups.  Yet it was probably enough women, minorities, and Gays who crossed over and voted for Trump to put him over the top in crucial states because they felt that the Democratic Party hadn't done enough for them.  Politics is a hard game.

Still, the Republican Party is not a good fit for the disaffected white male workers.  For one thing, the Republican establishment ("elites") feel American workers are overpaid, and I feel the workers are also held in disdain by the establishment.  Even Donald Trump has said on at least two occasions that the American worker is overpaid.  For years, however, the Republican establishment soothed the white American male worker through telling them such things as they are "The Real Americans" and other syrupy terms.

But along came a candidate for President who talked in their terms.  Send illegal Hispanics back to Mexico, build a wall, outlaw Muslim immigration to the U.S., and "keep THEM under control."  The "Them" is, of course, women, minorities, and Gays.  They thought Trump would lead them "out of the wilderness" in a reform of the Republican Party, but they were conned.  I've heard from some of Trump's base say that the wall is the big thing (even over better pay), so it is the emotional things they love.

Below I've noted some of Hillary Clinton's proposals and actions (Quotes from references are given in italics):
Increase The Minimum Wage
    If the minimum wage is increased, everybody above it gets a raise also.
    She supported a $12/hr minimum wage.  She supports prevailing wage laws in states and a $15/hr  minimum wage where economics support it.

• Every student should have the option to graduate from a public college or university in their state without taking on any student debt. By 2021, families with income up to $125,000 will pay no tuition at in-state four-year public colleges and universities. And from the beginning, every student from a family making $85,000 a year or less will be able to go to an in-state four-year public college or university without paying tuition.*
• All community colleges will offer free tuition.*

Work for Women's Equality**
"If fighting for women’s health care and paid family leave and equal pay is playing the woman card, then deal me in."

She began her career at the Children's Defense Fund.  Wrote a book "It Takes A Village To Raise A Child," and fought to pass the Children's Health Insurance Act that has covered an estimated 8 million children.  Perhaps a negative was that she cosponsored the "Dream Act" three times.

And if there was any state the "owed" Hillary Clinton their vote it was Michigan.  She voted to save the automobile industry and Michigan has had the best record of increasing employment of the "rust belt" states.  She also was early involved in the Flint, Michigan, water problem.***

While Clinton may not have put a ton of resources into Wisconsin, her campaign peppered Michigan with visits by her and her surrogates during the final weeks.

Still, in Detroit, she won roughly 50,000 fewer votes than Obama did in 2012.***

She also campaigned in Detroit.****  I have no idea what more she could have done.

I think a problem for the white male worker is that Hillary is a woman.  This also seemed to bother many white educated women, especially in Pennsylvania where she had a major effort.  Incidentally, Pennsylvania is the Rust Belt state that had the greatest wage increases although the employment picture was static.

It seems like there is nothing the Democratic Party can do to win over the Trump base.

What all this means is that Congress is probably going to have to impeach the President (or Department heads rule he is incompetent: 25th amendment) while Republicans voters vastly approve of him (They will say he wasn't given a chance though Trump hung himself.).  This is going to take time.  You can find any number of Republicans outside of Congress, however, that oppose Trump vehemently.

* https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/
**  http://www.refinery29.com/2016/08/118582/hillary-clinton-strong-women-quotes
*** http://www.salon.com/2016/01/21/what_hillary_clinton_needs_to_learn_from_the_flint_water_crisis/
http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/09/how-clinton-lost-blue-wall-states-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin/93572020/
**** https://www.c-span.org/video/?416681-1/hillary-clinton-campaigns-detroit-michigan
https://www.c-span.org/video/?418008-1/hillary-clinton-campaigns-detroit-michigan

I'VE GOT A NICE BRIDGE TO SELL YOU: KILL OBAMACARE AND ?

and replace it in twio years.

After the collapse Monday night of the latest GOP plan to replace Obamacare, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he aimed to pass a bill to repeal the law and then pass a replacement during a "stable two-year transition period."*

If you believe that the Republicans will really come up with a health care bill during those two years, I got the proverbial bridge to sell you.

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/18/the-gops-obamacare-repeal-only-plan-is-already-on-the-verge-on-stalling.html

VAUDEVILLE AIN'T COMING BACK - KENTUCKY

CNBC has an interesting article on coal mining and renewable resources in Kentucky (quotes from the reference are in italics):

When Kiran Bhatraju, a native of Pikeville, Kentucky, and the CEO of renewable-energy company Arcadia Power, heard that a coal company would be converting an old strip mine into a solar farm, he expected huge backlash. But his community's reaction was the opposite.

"The mayor, local politicians and people in coal country are ready and excited about new jobs in the renewables industry," Bhatraju said. "The entire community has been rallying behind the project because it will retrain and put miners back to work."

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At one point more than 90 percent of the electric power provided by EKPC was coal-fired. Last year that number was down to about 70 percent, and today the cooperative is in the process of installing a 33,000-panel solar field on its property.[!]

"What we're doing is recognizing customer demand," Comer said. "And not just residential customers but also businesses. When companies are considering areas to locate a plant or facility, they're looking for energy options that are cost-effective and sustainable."

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Berkeley Energy Group, the coal company that Bhatraju referenced, announced their plans to build the state's largest solar farm in April, claiming that it would generate jobs for displaced coal workers. That same month, the Kentucky Coal Museum — a physical, standing tribute to the state's coal heritage — had 80 solar panels installed on its roof as a cost-saving measure. The museum's owner expects to save between $8,000 and $10,000 a year.

(Click on figure to enlarge)

But coal mining may not be dead, just a change from energy production to rare earth elements mining:

Hower and his university colleagues, for example, have partnered with the Department of Energy in the research of "rare earth elements," a group of 17 metals that are vital in the production of smartphones, wind turbines, solar panels and dozens of other modern-day technologies.

REEs, which include metals like scandium, yttrium and neodymium, are said to make up a $7 trillion global market, while supporting $500 billion to $600 billion in other industries. The United States imports 90 percent of its REEs from China, which holds a near monopoly over the market. This is despite the presence of 13 million metric tons of rare earth elements within the continental United States, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Hower said it's too soon to provide an estimate for REE resource potential in Kentucky, specifically.

"REEs can make Kentucky a player," Hower said. "You're not going to displace the entire range of imports from China, but if you could make a dent in it, that can go a long way."

On the city level, Louisville has joined the coalition of cities that will still follow the Paris accord:
On the city level, Louisville's government is setting sustainability standards for its residents. Following Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the city signed onto "We Are Still In," a coalition of more than 200 cities pledging to uphold the climate accord.
Also see: http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/07/parallel-government.html

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/18/post-coal-country-kentucky-bets-on-renewable-energy-metals-mining.html

ENGINEERS AND THE ACA

Many decades ago, I majored in engineering.  We had a little one credit course in which, in part, it was said that when a project was discussed, it was all right to propose alterations or even a new plan, but once a decision was made, everyone was to get together and make the plan work, even if you thought it wasn't the best plan or even if you thought it wouldn't work.  So the question is, ACA (Obamacare) became the plan (became law, a decision was made) so what did Republicans do to try and make the plan work?

True, the ACA was passed by one political party although the plan was that of the opposing party; yet none of the opposing party voted for it.  That is a big reason why the Republicans are having such a difficult time with repeal and replace for the ACA.  It was really their plan.

A huge problem in our current politics is that there is never a real decision made.  It sure makes it difficult for people to plan for the future.  You have to plan for every eventuality.

When Republican Bush-43 proposed Medicare D (prescription drugs), Democrats voted for it.  It was his fellow Republicans that gave Bush such a hard time, but it passed.  Now there is no argument over Medicare D.  President Reagan proposed that emergency rooms have to take all applicants, regardless of ability to pay.  Democrats and Republicans both voted for it and there is no argument against it today.  Come on Republicans, it is in your interest to propose some plan that Democrats can vote for or help fix the ACA.