http://www.epi.org/multimedia/unequal-states-of-america/
http://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/a-guide-to-statistics-on-historical-trends-in-income-inequality
http://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/SaezZucman2014Slides.pdf
Thursday, July 7, 2016
THE ONE PERCENT AND THE REST
Turns out that 1% of the families have 20.1% of the income The percentage reached a low in the 1970s and has been increasing rather rapidly in a zig-zag pattern ever since. It seems strange to me that the low point in the 1% income compared to the rest occurred during the end of the Nixon, Ford and Carter years. The bottom came in 1978 under Carter. The top at 25% occurred in 1929 (no less). Reagan started off the climb in percentage income of the wealthy with little change during Bush-41's one term then continued upward during the Clinton years. The wealthy also did well during Obama's first term.
(click on the figure to enlarge)
http://www.epi.org/multimedia/unequal-states-of-america/
http://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/a-guide-to-statistics-on-historical-trends-in-income-inequality
http://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/SaezZucman2014Slides.pdf
http://www.epi.org/multimedia/unequal-states-of-america/
http://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/a-guide-to-statistics-on-historical-trends-in-income-inequality
http://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/SaezZucman2014Slides.pdf
Wednesday, July 6, 2016
HOW DO WORKFORCE DROPOUTS SURVIVE?
A shrinking workforce percentage of those eligible has been shown for a long time, maybe as much as 25 yrs. I have long wondered, how do these people survive? For a while they get unemployment insurance that is about 30% of their previous salary (How do they pay their mortgage on their home?), but then what? Many, I guess, retire that otherwise would have worked for several or many more years. But there is a residual that can' retire yet.
Some unemployed may survive on some else's wages (married couples, for example). Many of those who can't retire yet must have jobs not counted. They can do "under the table" work like mow lawns, do handyman work, do house cleaning, etc., and perhaps are Uber drivers (I'll use Uber to represent the entire private drivers business like Flyt). I have been unable to find out how the Dept. of Labor counts Uber drivers. Can you be an Uber driver and still be counted as unemployed?
The next disruptive job to go will probably be taxicab and Uber drivers when self-driving cars becomes available.. This is going to affect many, many thousands of workers.
An increasing number of people are claiming disability.:
Another culprit behind the shrinking workforce participation rate may be a more serious issue: the rise of illness and disability. About 16.3 million Americans said they couldn't work because of health issues in 2014, up from 12.4 million a decade ago.
While even younger Americans increasingly claim health problems for sidelining them, the biggest bulge is among men and women between 55 to 64 years old, the BLS said. About one out of eight Americans in that group said they aren't able to work because of illness or disability, compared with slightly more than one out of 10 in 2004.*
Some other interesting articles on the workforce dropouts are cited below .**
* http://www.cbsnews.com/news/behind-the-rise-in-americas-workforce-dropouts/
** http://www.examiner.com/article/recruiters-respond-to-the-unemployed-need-not-apply
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/janice-harper/long-term-unemployment_b_5678959.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/what-do-the-jobless-do-when-the-benefits-end/2014/02/11/e135d74a-8eb7-11e3-b227-12a45d109e03_story.html
Some unemployed may survive on some else's wages (married couples, for example). Many of those who can't retire yet must have jobs not counted. They can do "under the table" work like mow lawns, do handyman work, do house cleaning, etc., and perhaps are Uber drivers (I'll use Uber to represent the entire private drivers business like Flyt). I have been unable to find out how the Dept. of Labor counts Uber drivers. Can you be an Uber driver and still be counted as unemployed?
The next disruptive job to go will probably be taxicab and Uber drivers when self-driving cars becomes available.. This is going to affect many, many thousands of workers.
An increasing number of people are claiming disability.:
Another culprit behind the shrinking workforce participation rate may be a more serious issue: the rise of illness and disability. About 16.3 million Americans said they couldn't work because of health issues in 2014, up from 12.4 million a decade ago.
While even younger Americans increasingly claim health problems for sidelining them, the biggest bulge is among men and women between 55 to 64 years old, the BLS said. About one out of eight Americans in that group said they aren't able to work because of illness or disability, compared with slightly more than one out of 10 in 2004.*
Some other interesting articles on the workforce dropouts are cited below .**
* http://www.cbsnews.com/news/behind-the-rise-in-americas-workforce-dropouts/
** http://www.examiner.com/article/recruiters-respond-to-the-unemployed-need-not-apply
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/janice-harper/long-term-unemployment_b_5678959.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/what-do-the-jobless-do-when-the-benefits-end/2014/02/11/e135d74a-8eb7-11e3-b227-12a45d109e03_story.html
Friday, July 1, 2016
MINIMUM GUARANTEED INCOME
For some time I have thought that there should be some sort of minimum income for adults, enough to keep someone in a modest home, keep in basic foods, and maybe a tiny bit for extras (i.e. have a modest TV, and, perhaps, going to a movie once a month or something like that). The reason for this is that automation is eliminating many jobs (letting your fingers do the walking on the telephone) and others are now turned over the the consumer (e.g. pumping your own gas) not to be spent on booze, beer, or cigarettes. Of course there are the jobs off-shored to low wage countries, and it would be poor to eliminate the low cost products as a result. Most adults won't be satisfied with minimal living and will seek work, but if the work is not available, they have this safety net.
Well it turns out just this sort of thimg has been proposed by others:
A tsunami of economic disruption is barreling toward the United States, and, as Pimco co-founder Bill Gross observed in his May "Investment Outlook," "No one in 2016 is really addressing the future as we are likely to experience it … Virtually every industry in existence is likely to become less labor-intensive in future years as new technology is assimilated into existing business models."
A 2013 Oxford University study concluded that 47 percent of jobs in the U.S. are at risk of being eliminated due to software, robotics and machines learning artificial intelligence. A McKinsey Global Institute study delivered similar results and went further to say that, if artificial intelligence progresses and is able to process and understand natural language a little better, that number could quickly jump to 58 percent of work activities that are automatable.*
..................................................................
Here's what I propose to both finally end poverty now and as insurance later to ease the difficult transition of what the experts are predicting in job loss — a universal basic income. Universal basic income may be the biggest "new" idea of the 21st century, although it traces its history to Thomas Paine, Milton Friedman and Richard Nixon, whose bill twice passed the U.S. House of Representatives.
How would it work? Each month, every adult would get a check for $1,000 — that's $12,000 a year, just above the poverty line. It's that simple. A form of universal basic income has been in place in Alaska since 1976, paid as a dividend from oil revenues from the North Shore. In 2014, that dividend provided $1,884 to 640,000 individuals using funds from a single revenue stream. By eliminating 126 current welfare programs that would be made redundant by UBI; instituting a financial transaction tax, which our country already had for 50 years; eliminating many, or all, federal tax expenditures and levying a value added tax (VAT), we could provide the funding necessary for a UBI.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/22/why-we-should-give-every-adult-1000month-for-free-commentary.html
Well it turns out just this sort of thimg has been proposed by others:
A tsunami of economic disruption is barreling toward the United States, and, as Pimco co-founder Bill Gross observed in his May "Investment Outlook," "No one in 2016 is really addressing the future as we are likely to experience it … Virtually every industry in existence is likely to become less labor-intensive in future years as new technology is assimilated into existing business models."
A 2013 Oxford University study concluded that 47 percent of jobs in the U.S. are at risk of being eliminated due to software, robotics and machines learning artificial intelligence. A McKinsey Global Institute study delivered similar results and went further to say that, if artificial intelligence progresses and is able to process and understand natural language a little better, that number could quickly jump to 58 percent of work activities that are automatable.*
..................................................................
Here's what I propose to both finally end poverty now and as insurance later to ease the difficult transition of what the experts are predicting in job loss — a universal basic income. Universal basic income may be the biggest "new" idea of the 21st century, although it traces its history to Thomas Paine, Milton Friedman and Richard Nixon, whose bill twice passed the U.S. House of Representatives.
How would it work? Each month, every adult would get a check for $1,000 — that's $12,000 a year, just above the poverty line. It's that simple. A form of universal basic income has been in place in Alaska since 1976, paid as a dividend from oil revenues from the North Shore. In 2014, that dividend provided $1,884 to 640,000 individuals using funds from a single revenue stream. By eliminating 126 current welfare programs that would be made redundant by UBI; instituting a financial transaction tax, which our country already had for 50 years; eliminating many, or all, federal tax expenditures and levying a value added tax (VAT), we could provide the funding necessary for a UBI.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/22/why-we-should-give-every-adult-1000month-for-free-commentary.html
Tuesday, June 28, 2016
MALES DROPPING OUT OF WORK FORCE
A recent WSJ article addresses an interesting and serious topic of why are less skilled men dropping out of the work-force. You are encouraged to look at the whole article.
(Click on figure to enlarge)
* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/06/20/as-low-skilled-jobs-disappear-men-drop-out-of-the-workforce/?mod=djemRTE_h
Why aren’t men in the prime of their lives working more?
Working-age males have been sitting on the sidelines in greater numbers for decades, a trend that accelerated during the latest recession and has broad implications for individual well-being as well as the overall economy.
A new White House study highlights the sharpest decline among men with lower levels of educational attainment and concludes much of the cause is a loss of economic opportunity for those would-be workers.
“No single factor can fully explain this decline, but analysis suggests that a reduction in the demand for less skilled labor has been a key cause of declining participation rates as well as lower wages for less skilled workers,” the Council of Economic Advisers said in the report.*
The article has several very interesting graphs, but I haven't seen this one of workforce participation rate by educational achievement. I shock is that even among the better educational attainment, the workforce participation rate among men is still declining, although slightly.
* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/06/20/as-low-skilled-jobs-disappear-men-drop-out-of-the-workforce/?mod=djemRTE_h
Monday, June 27, 2016
SLOW GROWTH + IMMIGRATION = BREAKUP!
So countries breaking up into smaller entities* continues with Great Britain voting to leave the European Union. It leaves me limp. No one knows how this will end. Scotland may have another vote to leave the U,K and it may well succeed because they voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU. Northern Ireland may break off to join Ireland. In the end, Britain may end up with a looser European economy.
It seems like lots of Brits voted for breakup as a protest vote and now are shocked at what they have done so there is a movement to have yet another vote that is being resisted.
Incidentally, it isn't Middle Eastern immigration that was the problem but free movement of people within the EU. Foreign born people in the UK doubled since 1990. But this is no problem in the U.S. California and Texas welcome immigrants from other states and, in fact, brag about it. Of course they speak the same language pretty well. California is considered the "Golden State" for sure. It was populated largely by the radical distillate from the Mid-West, both the far right and far left. There is some movement to Texas because of taxes by people who don't care so much about their environment (Texas has no mountains to speak of and lots of desert and most of the population is inland from the ocean.). One can expect this talk to resume if Hillary is elected President.
Will this have any effect on the U.S. where people are also saying they want their country back.* Will Texas want to secede? There are those in Texas that talk about this a lot. And there are those in California that want the state broken up into six states. Everything is kind of nervous right now.
* Consider the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia among others. Perhaps the big exception is the reuniting of East and West Germany.
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/06/taking-my-country-back-again.html
It seems like lots of Brits voted for breakup as a protest vote and now are shocked at what they have done so there is a movement to have yet another vote that is being resisted.
Incidentally, it isn't Middle Eastern immigration that was the problem but free movement of people within the EU. Foreign born people in the UK doubled since 1990. But this is no problem in the U.S. California and Texas welcome immigrants from other states and, in fact, brag about it. Of course they speak the same language pretty well. California is considered the "Golden State" for sure. It was populated largely by the radical distillate from the Mid-West, both the far right and far left. There is some movement to Texas because of taxes by people who don't care so much about their environment (Texas has no mountains to speak of and lots of desert and most of the population is inland from the ocean.). One can expect this talk to resume if Hillary is elected President.
Will this have any effect on the U.S. where people are also saying they want their country back.* Will Texas want to secede? There are those in Texas that talk about this a lot. And there are those in California that want the state broken up into six states. Everything is kind of nervous right now.
* Consider the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia among others. Perhaps the big exception is the reuniting of East and West Germany.
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/06/taking-my-country-back-again.html
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
EVANGELICAL PASTORS AND HOMOSEXUALS
Many Evangelical pastors seem to subscribe special powers to gays:
And then there are those who cite Biblical passages that say Gays should be killed to excuse their views:
Last weekend Senator Ted Cruz, along with fellow GOP presidential candidates Mike Huckabee and Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal, spoke at a conference in Des Moines headed up by a man who advocates the execution of gay people — per his interpretation of the bible — and who made his call for mass extermination once again, onstage at the event, the National Religious Liberties Conference. Pastor Kevin Swanson has said in the past that Christians should attend gay weddings and hold up signs telling the newly married gay and lesbian couples that they “should be put to death.” He was an advocate of Uganda’s infamous “Kill the Gays” bill, which he saw as a model.**
And where are the Evangelicals who oppose killing of Gays?
It may be true that the “death to gays” pastors and their followers represent a tiny portion of evangelicals. But a much larger group of white evangelicals (and their leaders), which represented half of all GOP primary voters in the current presidential race, is not speaking out against the people making claims in the name of their religious faith. And by not doing so they are giving tacit approval to calls for violence, murder and genocide.***
Not all Evangelical Pastors recommend killing Gays. A North Carolina Pastor recommends an electric fence in pen where male homosexuals are put in one part. Separated from them is a space for Lesbians. They are to be fed and live out their natural lifetime after which there would be none left.****
* http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/20/colorado-floods-gay-blame_n_3962912.html
**http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michelangelo-signorile/post_10496_b_8544540.html; http://www.thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/davidbadash/christian_pastor_says_gays_worthy_of_death_at_conference_with_3_gop_presidential_candidates; http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/09/robert-gallaty-anti-gay-pastor_n_5792996.html; http://www.huffingtonpost.com/courtney-odonnell/anti-gay-pastors_b_1566346.html
*** http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michelangelo-signorile/do-all-evangelical-leader_b_1562032.html
**** http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/21/north-carolina-pastor-gay-rant-starvation_n_1533463.html
[Pastor] Swanson asked, “Is this
a coincidence that this was the worst year
in the history of Colorado, at least if you
use God’s law as a means of
determining human ethics?”
a coincidence that this was the worst year
in the history of Colorado, at least if you
use God’s law as a means of
determining human ethics?”
He slammed the state legislators who
“committed homosexual acts on the front
page of the Denver Post,” which, along
with marijuana and abortion rights,
prompted the “worst year ever in terms
of flood and fire damage in Colorado’s history.”*
“committed homosexual acts on the front
page of the Denver Post,” which, along
with marijuana and abortion rights,
prompted the “worst year ever in terms
of flood and fire damage in Colorado’s history.”*
Last weekend Senator Ted Cruz, along with fellow GOP presidential candidates Mike Huckabee and Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal, spoke at a conference in Des Moines headed up by a man who advocates the execution of gay people — per his interpretation of the bible — and who made his call for mass extermination once again, onstage at the event, the National Religious Liberties Conference. Pastor Kevin Swanson has said in the past that Christians should attend gay weddings and hold up signs telling the newly married gay and lesbian couples that they “should be put to death.” He was an advocate of Uganda’s infamous “Kill the Gays” bill, which he saw as a model.**
And where are the Evangelicals who oppose killing of Gays?
It may be true that the “death to gays” pastors and their followers represent a tiny portion of evangelicals. But a much larger group of white evangelicals (and their leaders), which represented half of all GOP primary voters in the current presidential race, is not speaking out against the people making claims in the name of their religious faith. And by not doing so they are giving tacit approval to calls for violence, murder and genocide.***
Not all Evangelical Pastors recommend killing Gays. A North Carolina Pastor recommends an electric fence in pen where male homosexuals are put in one part. Separated from them is a space for Lesbians. They are to be fed and live out their natural lifetime after which there would be none left.****
“Build a great, big, large fence — 150 or 100 mile long —
put all the lesbians in there,” Worley suggests in the
clip, reportedly filmed on May 13.
put all the lesbians in there,” Worley suggests in the
clip, reportedly filmed on May 13.
He continues: “Do the same thing for the queers and
the homosexuals and have that fence electrified so
they can’t get out...and you know what, in a few years,
they’ll die out. Do you know why?
They can’t reproduce!”
the homosexuals and have that fence electrified so
they can’t get out...and you know what, in a few years,
they’ll die out. Do you know why?
They can’t reproduce!”
**http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michelangelo-signorile/post_10496_b_8544540.html; http://www.thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/davidbadash/christian_pastor_says_gays_worthy_of_death_at_conference_with_3_gop_presidential_candidates; http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/09/robert-gallaty-anti-gay-pastor_n_5792996.html; http://www.huffingtonpost.com/courtney-odonnell/anti-gay-pastors_b_1566346.html
*** http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michelangelo-signorile/do-all-evangelical-leader_b_1562032.html
**** http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/21/north-carolina-pastor-gay-rant-starvation_n_1533463.html
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGNS
I'm 85 yrs old and have been through a lot of elections. My opinion is that at this time, voters are playing around so that polls are not particularly accurate. They will say that anyone is better than my party's candidate so I'm going to vote for the other party, but when the time comes to pull the lever, they just can't stand to pull the other party's lever. People begin to get serious maybe 4 days before the election and many will decide in the voting booth. So I wouldn't put too much stock in today's polling.
About 35% of the voters will vote Republican no matter what, likewise about 35% will vote Democratic. The only way you can affect these voters is to convince them not to vote. Among the independents, a large number are Right leaning and a similar number are Left leaning. There is hope of swaying these voters and that decides the election. Democrats have a particularly hard time getting their voters to come out on mid-term elections. On-the-other-hand, Republicans are more emotional and come out for all elections. The result is divided government.
Lots of working people are with Donald Trump because of the way he talks. They think he is with them. but they should be very careful. After all, Donald Trump on at least two occasions has said that he thinks American wages are too high.* You have to remember that he is a con man and he will con you if he can. So he may not be as sympathetic with the workers as he sounds as he has studied what they want to hear (Like President Obama is not an American born citizen.).
But as I survey the Republican field (and I include Paul Ryan in this), Donald Trump looks like the best Republican candidate with the exception of John Kasich. Jeb Bush may be a bit better than some of the others, but he is awful when it comes to the Right To Life and single-handedly kept Teri Schiavo on life support systems for years after she was brain dead.** Even after a couple of bad weeks for Donald Trump, he is only a few points behind Hillary Clinton in the polls (fewer than 10 points in any poll).
My point is that it is still very early in the election cycle, and, so far as I am concerned, the winner is still open. Remember that Hillary is doing rather well because she finally is officially the Democratic presumptive Democratic nominee and is getting a bounce from that.
* http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/12/politics/donald-trump-explains-wages-too-high-comment/
** http://www.nbcnews.com/id/8225637/ns/us_news/t/schiavo-autopsyshows-irreversiblebrain-damage/#.V2lSRPkrKM8
About 35% of the voters will vote Republican no matter what, likewise about 35% will vote Democratic. The only way you can affect these voters is to convince them not to vote. Among the independents, a large number are Right leaning and a similar number are Left leaning. There is hope of swaying these voters and that decides the election. Democrats have a particularly hard time getting their voters to come out on mid-term elections. On-the-other-hand, Republicans are more emotional and come out for all elections. The result is divided government.
Lots of working people are with Donald Trump because of the way he talks. They think he is with them. but they should be very careful. After all, Donald Trump on at least two occasions has said that he thinks American wages are too high.* You have to remember that he is a con man and he will con you if he can. So he may not be as sympathetic with the workers as he sounds as he has studied what they want to hear (Like President Obama is not an American born citizen.).
But as I survey the Republican field (and I include Paul Ryan in this), Donald Trump looks like the best Republican candidate with the exception of John Kasich. Jeb Bush may be a bit better than some of the others, but he is awful when it comes to the Right To Life and single-handedly kept Teri Schiavo on life support systems for years after she was brain dead.** Even after a couple of bad weeks for Donald Trump, he is only a few points behind Hillary Clinton in the polls (fewer than 10 points in any poll).
My point is that it is still very early in the election cycle, and, so far as I am concerned, the winner is still open. Remember that Hillary is doing rather well because she finally is officially the Democratic presumptive Democratic nominee and is getting a bounce from that.
* http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/12/politics/donald-trump-explains-wages-too-high-comment/
** http://www.nbcnews.com/id/8225637/ns/us_news/t/schiavo-autopsyshows-irreversiblebrain-damage/#.V2lSRPkrKM8
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