BUY ON THE RUMOR, SELL ON THE NEWS

There is a lot of lore in the stock markets.  One is "Sell In May and Go Away."  In this case, selling stocks in May and rebuying after Halloween results in a 10% gain over "Buy and Hold."

We have just witnessed the application of another old adage which is" BUY ON THE RUMOR, SELL ON THE NEWS"  In the runup to the approval of the $2 Trillion Corononavirus Relief  Bill (Friday, March 27, 2020) for the economy, the stock markets rose precipitously for three days prior to the signing.   Not even record unemployment applications stopped the upsurge. When it became clear that the bill was going to be signed and approved on Friday, stocks crashed.  People not in the know were surprised at the decline, but I expected it.*

Incidentally, another important adage says "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." by John Maynard Keynes"  I refer to this one as the short sellers lament.  That is people who borrow (sell) a certain number of shares of stocks at one price and expect to pay the loan off by buying the stocks at a lower price making the difference between the selling price and the buying price.**  This is an advanced trading technique that I don't recommend for us retail investors.

Then there is The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different’."
Sir John Templeton

* https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/stocks-fall-questions-rise-over-passage-2-trillion-economic-relief-n1170221
** https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortselling.asp

THERE WILL BE A WOMAN PRESIDENT WHEN WOMEN WANT ONE

Though many women would like to see a woman president, when it comes to picking one, however, they back off.  Ok, so you want a woman president but not this woman (Hillary Clinton).  It turns out that more women voted for Trump than for Hillary.

But what about the current group?  Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Tulsi Gabbard, Marianne Williamson give a lot of choices such as Warren who is more liberal and Amy who is more centrist, etc.  Why didn't women back one of these candidates?  Too many choices?

I like Amy and hope she is chosen as the Vice-President candidate.  Incidentally, there has been no woman Vice-President.  A couple has been chosen as candidates but were not elected.  Common women, go for her!

Kamala is not only a former District Attorney and Attorney General of California but counts as a Black and India Indian to boot.

By the way, many decades ago I was living in Zurich (1968-1969) and the topic of the day there was should women be allowed to vote?  There was an organization of women called the Frauen Verein (simply Women's Organization).   Among the reasons they thought women shouldn't have the right to vote is that it would do away with all the chivalry/graces women have like men opening the doors for them.

TRUMP IS LIKE DEER CAUGHT IN THE CAR LIGHTS

President Trump has made some half-way progress toward becoming a President by announcing a National Emergency (and it is not about Mexicans crossing our Southern border), but he has to keep spoiling it with things like saying that the government is not a purchasing agent in the corona(Chinese)virus.  Yet that is exactly what is needed instead to leave it up to each governor.  And it is needed to be determined just how much of everything may be needed in this pandemic  While it is good for the President's morale to appear on TV with the press briefing on corona(Chinese)virus every day, we need him off trying to make sure that all the supplies needed are in production and increasing production.  After all, he says we are at war.  What is our military effort in this war - guarding the border to make sure no illegal Mexicans are crossing over??

Trump's declaring a National Emergency and that we are at war is permitting the military to get involved.  New York has ordered 4 field hospitals from the DOD that will have 250 beds each and come with ventilators.  Maybe the cavalry is coming?

Trump says that the benefit of coronavirus is that it lets him deal with illegal immigration as he sees fit, the part of the problem Trump's base treasures.  I find that kind of weird, but it does deal with the external part of the problem.   At this point, I think that the internal problem with coronavirus is more important.

The latest coming shortage appears to be of swabs for nose and mouth.*  Why don't we have some sort of organization looking at these things to make sure that we can fulfill the total package.?

American industry is willing to help with the Pandemic but is awaiting orders for the most part.  For example, a company called Steel Case has said they could convert to making hospital beds and is awaiting orders.  Is has been known that the number of hospital beds needed is going to increase alarmingly.**

Oh, and are medical masks ever going to catch up with the need?  There does seem to be some pickup in deliveries, but nearly all the news you hear is of state and hospitals and physicians saying they can't get the HP-95 masks.  I think the major maker of these masks in the U.S. is 3M.
3M Co. MMM, ...  said Friday it had doubled global production of N95 masks and plans to continue to expand amid concerns about dwindling supplies of the respirator masks for health workers treating COVID-19 patients. The company's output of N95 masks is at an annual rate of more than 1.1 billion a year, 3M said. The company is increasing investments, mostly in the U.S., to expand its global capacity by more than 30% in the next 12 months and maximizing production of other products used to combat the illness, including hand sanitizers, disinfectants and air-filtration products, it said, without providing dollar figures.***

At least one other company is also ramping up production.
So why is it so hard to produce new masks? The New York Times reported that China made half of the world’s masks before the outbreak, and while factory production has increased nearly twelvefold, the country has kept most of its inventory as it sought to control the virus. US mask manufacturers are also seeing unprecedented demand for masks, with Prestige Ameritech, the country’s biggest producer, aiming to make 1 million masks a day, compared to an average 250,000 before the pandemic.****

The latest coming shortage appears to be of swabs for nose and mouth.  Why don't we have some sort of organization looking at these things to make sure that we can fulfill the total package?  Oh well, GM and Tesla have said they will start making ventilators.  That is not going to be so easy, I think.

* https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/18/817801222/testing-swabs-run-in-short-supply-as-makers-try-to-speed-up-production
** https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-hospital-bed-crunch-capacity-18e22c81-006b-4654-a74c-40ff86488431.html
*** https://www.marketwatch.com/story/3m-to-increase-production-of-n95-masks-other-coronavirus-related-products-2020-03-20
https://www.thomasnet.com/articles/top-suppliers/surgical-mask-manufacturer-suppliers/
**** https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2020/3/20/21188369/face-masks-short-supply-coronavirus-donations

CORONAVIRUS: ACTIONS AND INACTIONS

So the Fed has dropped the short-term interest rate to near zero.  Well, I suppose that saving 1 percent on your loans may be of some help,  but it is mainly "feel good" help.

It looks like Moscow Mitch has torpedoed the House financial bill that was aimed to help the working poor.  So it looks like millions of Americans are just going to have to suck it up.  Will food banks be open?  I guess there are groups that serve hot meals once a day.

So no surprise that the stock market is down big time again Monday.  Maybe it will be called the Mitch Recession?  Or how about the By, By Trump Recession.

He got a lot of credit for declaring a National Emergency, but then the next day he said he wasn't sure he did the right thing.  Still stepping on his good points.

Speaking of Trump,  all of a sudden he seems to realize that the Coronavirus is a real problem, even a real problem for him.  He is now appearing daily with the White House Taskforce and not stepping all over his concerns.  As they say in 12-step programs, "Fake it until you make it."  Trouble is, now Trump has to contend with Moscow Mitch who seems to think that the unemployed are no problem.

Even some Republicans are beginning to be believers in the pandemic.  Newt Gingrich, for example, is running a program from Rome that states you can't ignore facts.  well, that in itself is an advance for Republicans.*

* https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-much-of-america-takes-drastic-action-some-republicans-remain-skeptical-of-the-severity-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic/2020/03/17/f8b199c8-6786-11ea-b313-df458622c2cc_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most

CORONAVIRUS AND THE STOCK MARKETS

The Alex Witt program on MSNBC (March 14, 2020) had an unexpected speech by President Trump that was actually very uplifting.  Not only do we now have emergency relief money, but the White House/House of Representatives have come to an agreement on a package that addressees people being put out of work or staying home because of school closings, etc.* (Moscow Mitch sounds as if he will submarine it, but Sec. Treasury says there will only be some “technical” corrections on Monday.) The bill includes free testing, ramping up testing (Thermo-Fischer has been approved to do testing and is the first company)  If the bill passes the Senate, there will be good news for the stock markets and they can go up.  Trump says that shaking hands is not a good idea, but when someone puts out their hand to him, it is a reflex to shake the hand.  He will work on it.  Trump also has had a coronavirus test and he is OK.  Also, travel restrictions are extended to the UK and Ireland on Monday.

But isn’t this a complication?
In April, the U.S. Department of Agriculture is set to tighten rules for unemployed adults who don’t have minor children or disabilities, a policy that will shrink food benefit enrollment by 700,000, or about 2% annually.
(https://www.newsmax.com/politics/snap-cuts-administration/2020/03/13/id/958307/?ns_mail_uid=142cf6cb-b757-4a77-afda-d3310b9288ee&ns_mail_job=DM94941_03042020&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010104ggycvl )

If this is the new Trump, he may well be tough come election day.  His previous efforts to minimize reporting on the coronavirus wasn't working.

Regarding continuing care facilities, there is to be minimal contact between family and friends with residents   Contact will be permitted in end-of-life situations.


* According to House Appropriations Committee Democrats, the legislation: 

Requires private health plans to cover coronavirus testing at no cost, and allocates $1 billion for testing for uninsured Americans
Ensures employers with fewer than 500 employees and government employers offer two weeks of paid sick leave. The provision expires at the end of the year
Requires those same kinds of employers to provide up to 3 months of paid family and medical leave for people forced to quarantine due to the virus or care for children or family members because of the outbreak
Offers payroll tax credits for employers providing those leave benefits
Puts $1 billion into emergency state grants for providing unemployment insurance benefits. It includes $500 million for staffing and logistical costs for states, with an additional $500 million reserved for states that see a 10% increase in unemployment
Puts $500 million into food assistance for low-income pregnant women and mothers with young children, $400 million into local food banks and $250 million into a senior nutrition program
Suspends the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program work requirements for the duration of the crisis

* https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-outbreak-pelosi-and-trump-administration-reach-deal.html

Here is another interesting article on the stock markets.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/31/the-stock-market-boomed-in-2019-heres-how-it-happened.html

CORONAVIRUS AND AGE; WILL IT GO AWAY?

Not many children are getting the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), but it is the elderly at most risk.

"We now know more about who is at risk. Average age of death for people from coronavirus is 80. Average age of people who need medical attention is age 60. We want people who are older, people who have medical conditions, to take steps to protect themselves, including avoiding crowded spaces, including thinking very carefully about whether or not now is the time to get on that cruise ship, whether now is the time to take that long haul flight," Adams said. "For most people you're going to be fine. But if you have medical conditions, or you're older, now is the time to rethink that."&

"We now know more about who is at risk. Average age of death for people from coronavirus is 80. Average age of people who need medical attention is age 60. We want people who are older, people who have medical conditions, to take steps to protect themselves, including avoiding crowded spaces, including thinking very carefully about whether or not now is the time to get on that cruise ship, whether now is the time to take that long haul flight," Adams said. "For most people you're going to be fine. But if you have medical conditions, or you're older, now is the time to rethink that."*
.....................................................................
Will COVID-19 go away in the summer like normal flu?
And experts warn that even if COVID-19 becomes less active in the summer, it could return if public health officials do not gain control of the outbreak first.

“If we continue to see sustained transmission in multiple countries, it will be very difficult to eradicate the virus,” says Charles Chiu, a professor of laboratory medicine at the University of California, San Francisco. “There is a risk that it may end up becoming a seasonal virus without global concerted public health interventions to prevent spread.”**

He points to the 2009 outbreak of the H1N1 virus, otherwise known as swine flu, which began in April of that year. He says that as it adapted to the human population, it adopted a seasonal pattern, with most infections now occurring during the winter months.**

* https://q13fox.com/2020/03/08/us-surgeon-general-says-he-thinks-coronavirus-is-contained-in-certain-areas-of-the-country/
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/coronavirus-kill-senior-citizens/2020/03/09/id/957522/?ns_mail_uid=142cf6cb-b757-4a77-afda-d3310b9288ee&ns_mail_job=DM95997_03092020&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010135hgigw6
** https://time.com/5790880/coronavirus-warm-weather-summer/.

CAN YOU GET CORONAVIRUS FROM PACKING MATERIAL?

Though we are calling the present outbreak of super flu using the general name coronavirus, the actual name is COVID-19, ‘CO’ stands for ‘corona,’ ‘VI’ for ‘virus,’ and ‘D’ for disease.*
........................................................
I have wondered whether we can get COVID-19 from packaging material.  Based on the behavier of previous coronavirus outbreaks like MERS and particularly genetically related SARS, it appears that packing materials are not a problem.
About 81% of people who are infected with the coronavirus have mild cases of COVID-19, according to a study published Feb. 18 by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. About 13.8% report severe illness, meaning they have shortness of breath, or require supplemental oxygen, and about 4.7% are critical, meaning they face respiratory failure, multi-organ failure or septic shock. The data thus far suggests that only around 2.3% of people infected with COVID-19 die from the virus. People who are older or have underlying health conditions seem to be most at risk of having severe disease or complications. While there's no need to panic, people should take steps to prepare and protect themselves and others from the new coronavirus.
.....................................................................
A past study found that these related coronaviruses can stay on surfaces such as metal, glass or plastic for as long as nine days, according to a study published Feb. 6 in The Journal of Hospital Infection. But the surfaces present in packaging are not ideal for the virus to survive.

For a virus to remain viable, it needs a combination of specific environmental conditions such as temperature, lack of UV exposure and humidity — a combination you won't get in shipping packages, according to Dr. Amesh A. Adalja, Senior Scholar, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, who spoke with Live Science's sister site Tom's Hardware.*

When bringing home groceries and packages or having them delivered, it is a good idea to wash your hands after putting things away because of recent contacts with other people.  But this is true for the flu also.


* https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-myths.html
See index at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html and
 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html