I have to hand it to Joe Scarborough who coined the nickname of "Moscow Mitch" for Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell who won’t let any bills on cybersecurity be voted on.
Wittingly or unwittingly, McConnell is a Russian asset, but it is hard to see that McConnel is acting unwittingly. On this, I am in agreement with Dana Milbank.*
American's problem is not solely Donald Trump. Moscow Mitch is an even bigger problem to American security.
I wonder if any foreign country will try to get a Democrat elected in 2020 now that it seems to be all right with Moscow Mitch to have foreign countries interfere in our elections. I suspect that Iran might favor a Democratic candidate though they seem to prefer just messing up things at this time. Boy, isn't that a choice, to be governed either by Russia or Iran? Perhaps China whom I doubt likes Trump at all. Other possibilities are France and perhaps Germany. I don't know yet about the UK.
Other countries may favor Trump. Saudi Arabia comes to mind as well as Israel that is ecstatic over our embassy being moved to Jerusalem by Trump. American Jews, however, greatly favor the Democratic Party. For example, there are no Jewish Republican Senators but there are 22 Jewish Democratic Senators, including the minority leader of the Senate Chuck Schumer.** Twenty-six members of the House are Jewish and only two are Republican.**
* https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mitch-mcconnell-is-a-russian-asset/2019/07/26/02cf3510-afbc-11e9-a0c9-6d2d7818f3da_story.html?utm_term=.586e3a69f753
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Jewish_members_of_the_United_States_Congress
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Saturday, July 27, 2019
AND MANY THAT AREN'T
I don't know where Trump gets his picks for appointments. Trump's nominations that were withdrawn are too numerous to list here (more than 60) but can be seen at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Donald_Trump_nominees_who_have_withdrawn
But the most notable of these is Andrew Pudzer who was nominated for Secretary of Labor. Also, 12 nominations for judge have been withdrawn.
It seems like Trump searches around until the worst possible candidate is found. Some of these appointments view their office as their private candy store and see how much candy they can force down. One of these was Tom Price, Secretary of Health and Human Services who "Resigned following scrutiny of his use of private charters and military aircraft for travel. His tenure was the shortest in the office's history."*
Another candy store Secretary was Ryan Zinke (Sec. Interior) who rode to work his first day in office astride a horse and liked to have a flag-waving when he was in office. But more seriously of the many investigations Zinke "Like other top administration officials, Zinke has come under fire for his use of private charter planes and government helicopters, including a $6,250 round-trip helicopter flight to meet Vice President Mike Pence for an afternoon horseback ride. "**
Also on Zinke: As the Huffington Post first reported in January, Zinke failed to report that he was still a shareholder in PROOF Research, a Montana company that manufactures and sells firearms. In addition to the undisclosed financial interest, Zinke’s calendar shows he met with executives and a lobbyist for the company — a move ethics experts said may have been a conflict of interest.
For more on Zinke see the reference **
Then there was Scott Pruitt Sec. of the Environmental Protection Agency who leased an apartment from the wife (a health lobbyist) of an energy lobbyist. He should have known something wasn't right when he was charged only $50.night. And he even fell behind payments on that. Asked by Fox whether renting a room from a Washington lobbyist was inconsistent with Trump’s promise to drain the swamp, Pruitt replied: “I don’t even think that that’s even remotely fair to ask that question.”
Pruitt was also in trouble with his spending and travel charges, among others. Actually, Pruitt was against the mission of EPA and filed 14 suits against it when he was Attorney General of Oklahoma. Four of the suits were against Clean Power.
At the top of the list of terrible appointments must be Michael Flynn who was appointed as Trump's national security officer even though he was an employee of the Turkish government. Then there was Sebastian Gorka who couldn't get a security clearance. Rob Porter who had to quit as White House Staff secretary after reports of spousal abuse by two former wives.
Brenda Fitzgerald, Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, "Resigned due to scrutiny of her financial holdings, which included stock in Japan Tobacco. Her tenure was the shortest in the office's history, excluding interim appointments."*
The most recent departure is Alexander Acosta (Sec. Labor) for giving a sweetheart deal to Jeff Epstein on sexual abuse charges. You have to wonder why he ever got appointed in the first place. K.T. McFarland withdrew because she "wasn't a good fit at NAC." After a few months in office, she was nominated to be ambassador to Singapore, but, eventually, even that offer was withdrawn.
CONTINUING IN OFFICE ARE:
Perhaps the worst case of a Cabinet Officer remaining in office is Wilbur Ross, Secretary of Commerce: The whole story is worth your time. But to highlight, Ross spent most of 2017 in office while maintaining partial ownership of, among other things:
Chinese state-owned enterprises
A shipping company tied to Russian oligarchs
A Cypriot bank that’s involved in Robert Mueller’s investigation
A major player in the auto parts industry with a direct stake in Commerce’s trade policy decisions
Perhaps the most egregiously corrupt aspect of this is that, according to Alexander, Ross even managed to find a way to profit off the exposure of his own corruption: “five days before reports surfaced last fall that Ross was connected to cronies of Vladimir Putin through a shipping firm called Navigator Holdings, the secretary of commerce, who likely knew about the reporting, shorted stock in the Kremlin-linked company, positioning himself to make money on the investment when share prices dropped.”*** He has also lied in inflating his net worth to $3.9 billion whereas financial disclosure statement puts it at $700 million.****
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Ben Carson, ordered $31,000 of furniture for his office by the government. When this turned into a scandal, the ordered was rescinded. Carson is a famous retired surgeon and must be worth millions of dollars. Why didn't he just pay for the furniture? If he didn't want it when he left office, he could have given it to the government. Carson is a big disappointment for me. He continues to remain in office.
Rick Perry, Secretary of Energy, wanted to eliminate the Department when he was running for president. It turns out he didn't know what the Department does (not unusual for political appointments). When he found out, he changed his mind.
Betsy DeVos, Secretary of Education, was barely approved with the vice-President casting the deciding vote.
Note Added August 3, 2019: John Ratcliffe withdrew his nomination as director of DNI (Director of National Intelligence) because of lack of qualifications on August 2nd. Ratcliffe was the guy who told Mueller that part II of the Mueller report was not authorized.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Trump_administration_dismissals_and_resignations
** https://grist.org/article/scandals-pile-up-for-interior-chief-ryan-zinke.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/05/scott-pruitt-condo-rental-504603
*** https://www.vox.com/2018/6/20/17479170/wilbur-ross-corruption
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2019/01/let-them-eat-cake.html
**** https://www.vox.com/2018/6/20/17479170/wilbur-ross-corruption
But the most notable of these is Andrew Pudzer who was nominated for Secretary of Labor. Also, 12 nominations for judge have been withdrawn.
It seems like Trump searches around until the worst possible candidate is found. Some of these appointments view their office as their private candy store and see how much candy they can force down. One of these was Tom Price, Secretary of Health and Human Services who "Resigned following scrutiny of his use of private charters and military aircraft for travel. His tenure was the shortest in the office's history."*
Another candy store Secretary was Ryan Zinke (Sec. Interior) who rode to work his first day in office astride a horse and liked to have a flag-waving when he was in office. But more seriously of the many investigations Zinke "Like other top administration officials, Zinke has come under fire for his use of private charter planes and government helicopters, including a $6,250 round-trip helicopter flight to meet Vice President Mike Pence for an afternoon horseback ride. "**
Also on Zinke: As the Huffington Post first reported in January, Zinke failed to report that he was still a shareholder in PROOF Research, a Montana company that manufactures and sells firearms. In addition to the undisclosed financial interest, Zinke’s calendar shows he met with executives and a lobbyist for the company — a move ethics experts said may have been a conflict of interest.
For more on Zinke see the reference **
Then there was Scott Pruitt Sec. of the Environmental Protection Agency who leased an apartment from the wife (a health lobbyist) of an energy lobbyist. He should have known something wasn't right when he was charged only $50.night. And he even fell behind payments on that. Asked by Fox whether renting a room from a Washington lobbyist was inconsistent with Trump’s promise to drain the swamp, Pruitt replied: “I don’t even think that that’s even remotely fair to ask that question.”
Pruitt was also in trouble with his spending and travel charges, among others. Actually, Pruitt was against the mission of EPA and filed 14 suits against it when he was Attorney General of Oklahoma. Four of the suits were against Clean Power.
At the top of the list of terrible appointments must be Michael Flynn who was appointed as Trump's national security officer even though he was an employee of the Turkish government. Then there was Sebastian Gorka who couldn't get a security clearance. Rob Porter who had to quit as White House Staff secretary after reports of spousal abuse by two former wives.
Brenda Fitzgerald, Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, "Resigned due to scrutiny of her financial holdings, which included stock in Japan Tobacco. Her tenure was the shortest in the office's history, excluding interim appointments."*
The most recent departure is Alexander Acosta (Sec. Labor) for giving a sweetheart deal to Jeff Epstein on sexual abuse charges. You have to wonder why he ever got appointed in the first place. K.T. McFarland withdrew because she "wasn't a good fit at NAC." After a few months in office, she was nominated to be ambassador to Singapore, but, eventually, even that offer was withdrawn.
CONTINUING IN OFFICE ARE:
Perhaps the worst case of a Cabinet Officer remaining in office is Wilbur Ross, Secretary of Commerce: The whole story is worth your time. But to highlight, Ross spent most of 2017 in office while maintaining partial ownership of, among other things:
Chinese state-owned enterprises
A shipping company tied to Russian oligarchs
A Cypriot bank that’s involved in Robert Mueller’s investigation
A major player in the auto parts industry with a direct stake in Commerce’s trade policy decisions
Perhaps the most egregiously corrupt aspect of this is that, according to Alexander, Ross even managed to find a way to profit off the exposure of his own corruption: “five days before reports surfaced last fall that Ross was connected to cronies of Vladimir Putin through a shipping firm called Navigator Holdings, the secretary of commerce, who likely knew about the reporting, shorted stock in the Kremlin-linked company, positioning himself to make money on the investment when share prices dropped.”*** He has also lied in inflating his net worth to $3.9 billion whereas financial disclosure statement puts it at $700 million.****
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Ben Carson, ordered $31,000 of furniture for his office by the government. When this turned into a scandal, the ordered was rescinded. Carson is a famous retired surgeon and must be worth millions of dollars. Why didn't he just pay for the furniture? If he didn't want it when he left office, he could have given it to the government. Carson is a big disappointment for me. He continues to remain in office.
Rick Perry, Secretary of Energy, wanted to eliminate the Department when he was running for president. It turns out he didn't know what the Department does (not unusual for political appointments). When he found out, he changed his mind.
Betsy DeVos, Secretary of Education, was barely approved with the vice-President casting the deciding vote.
Note Added August 3, 2019: John Ratcliffe withdrew his nomination as director of DNI (Director of National Intelligence) because of lack of qualifications on August 2nd. Ratcliffe was the guy who told Mueller that part II of the Mueller report was not authorized.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Trump_administration_dismissals_and_resignations
** https://grist.org/article/scandals-pile-up-for-interior-chief-ryan-zinke.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/05/scott-pruitt-condo-rental-504603
*** https://www.vox.com/2018/6/20/17479170/wilbur-ross-corruption
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2019/01/let-them-eat-cake.html
**** https://www.vox.com/2018/6/20/17479170/wilbur-ross-corruption
Friday, July 26, 2019
A FEW GOOD MEN AND WOMEN
Among all the weird appointments of President Donald Trump, a few good people have snuck through.
Among the people you hear about that are doing such a good job are that some are rumored to be replaced:
Jerome Powell (Federal Reserve) In fact Powell is doing such a good job that there is talk of replacing him, though it must be done for cause and Powell says he intends to finish his term. President Trump wants Powell to lower short term interest rates although they are low by historical standards (2.00-2.50%).
Gina Haspel (Central Intelligence Agency) was a surprise appointment to me because of President Trump's view that women are ornaments; however, she ran a "Black Site" for the CIA that committed torture and she is accused of destroying 92 tapes of interrogations so she is tough. As head of the CIA, she seems to be doing a good job.
Dan Coats (Director of National Intelligence by an 85-12 Senate vote) is a former Republican Representative and Senator from Indiana and also was Ambassador to Germany. In Congress, Coats supported some gun control measures. Hee is a member of the Right to Life He voted for the Iraq War and against the Iran nuclear arms deal. As Direct of DNI, he announced the unanimous verdict that the Russians had interfered in our election. There is the occasional talk of President Trump replacing Coasts.
Christopher Wray (Federal Bureau of Investigation) had previously served as the Assistant Attorney General of the Criminal Division in the Attorney Generals Office. At one time he had threatened to resign (along with Robert Mueller and Jim Comey) because of illegal surveillance that President Bush (Bush-43) had put into place. He was approved as Director in 2017 by a vote of 92-5 in the Senate. In the approval process,, Wray said he thought that the possible connection between the Russian election interference and the 2016 Presidential election was not a "Witch Hunt." He has also said he thinks most domestic terror is done by "white supremacists." At times Wray has gotten the displeasure of President Trump, but he still remains in office.
Paul Nakasone (National Security Agency)(U.S. Cyber Command unanimous vote) is a four-star general. He has held this office since April of 2018. Previously, he led the Army cyber command so he is experienced. I really don't know much about him (or his predecessor) but you don't hear anything bad about him.
RETIRED
Jim Mattis (Department Of Defense by 98-1 Senate vote) was also a retired Marine Corps General. Perhaps Mattis was the best appointment4 of all. In the beginning, President Trump seemed to like him but Mattis had trouble adjusting himself to Trump's "Style." His tenure lasted from January 2017 to December 2018. He approved letting Saudi Arabia enter the Yemen civil war.
Michael Rogers (National Security Agency)(U.S. Cyber Command unanimous vote) is a former Admiral appointed by Obama. He is a specialist in cryptology and cybersecurity. These are not independent agencies so Rogers has served while in the Navy rising to Admiral. He retired in May of 2018.
Among the people you hear about that are doing such a good job are that some are rumored to be replaced:
Jerome Powell (Federal Reserve) In fact Powell is doing such a good job that there is talk of replacing him, though it must be done for cause and Powell says he intends to finish his term. President Trump wants Powell to lower short term interest rates although they are low by historical standards (2.00-2.50%).
Gina Haspel (Central Intelligence Agency) was a surprise appointment to me because of President Trump's view that women are ornaments; however, she ran a "Black Site" for the CIA that committed torture and she is accused of destroying 92 tapes of interrogations so she is tough. As head of the CIA, she seems to be doing a good job.
Dan Coats (Director of National Intelligence by an 85-12 Senate vote) is a former Republican Representative and Senator from Indiana and also was Ambassador to Germany. In Congress, Coats supported some gun control measures. Hee is a member of the Right to Life He voted for the Iraq War and against the Iran nuclear arms deal. As Direct of DNI, he announced the unanimous verdict that the Russians had interfered in our election. There is the occasional talk of President Trump replacing Coasts.
Christopher Wray (Federal Bureau of Investigation) had previously served as the Assistant Attorney General of the Criminal Division in the Attorney Generals Office. At one time he had threatened to resign (along with Robert Mueller and Jim Comey) because of illegal surveillance that President Bush (Bush-43) had put into place. He was approved as Director in 2017 by a vote of 92-5 in the Senate. In the approval process,, Wray said he thought that the possible connection between the Russian election interference and the 2016 Presidential election was not a "Witch Hunt." He has also said he thinks most domestic terror is done by "white supremacists." At times Wray has gotten the displeasure of President Trump, but he still remains in office.
Paul Nakasone (National Security Agency)(U.S. Cyber Command unanimous vote) is a four-star general. He has held this office since April of 2018. Previously, he led the Army cyber command so he is experienced. I really don't know much about him (or his predecessor) but you don't hear anything bad about him.
RETIRED
Jim Mattis (Department Of Defense by 98-1 Senate vote) was also a retired Marine Corps General. Perhaps Mattis was the best appointment4 of all. In the beginning, President Trump seemed to like him but Mattis had trouble adjusting himself to Trump's "Style." His tenure lasted from January 2017 to December 2018. He approved letting Saudi Arabia enter the Yemen civil war.
Michael Rogers (National Security Agency)(U.S. Cyber Command unanimous vote) is a former Admiral appointed by Obama. He is a specialist in cryptology and cybersecurity. These are not independent agencies so Rogers has served while in the Navy rising to Admiral. He retired in May of 2018.
Monday, July 22, 2019
CONSERVATIVE AND LIBERAL STRAWS
Well, I hadn't realized it but, much to my surprise, straws are a political issue. Donald Trump is selling red plastic straws with his name etched on them - 10 for $15 that's $1.50 ea!. My bendable paper straws are $09 ea. (see the end for some examples) Straight straws are even less for the same quantities. Donald wouldn't be lining his pockets again, would he?
The straws as advertised are nine inches long and bright red — the same shade as Trump’s ubiquitous “Make America Great Again” baseball caps — and they’re branded with a laser-engraved “TRUMP” on one end. The description touts the straws as being reusable, recyclable, BPA-free and made in America.
................................................................
Biodegradable paper straws have grown in popularity — but they’re often criticized for dissolving or affecting the taste of beverages.*
Trump says paper straws don't work. I have used only paper straws or no straws since this last Earth Day (April 20th). People that say they go mushy are lying. I have ordered paper straws from three different companies and they are all good. I have my hospital mug that holds 3-1/4 cups of water. I sip water all day and night using a paper straw, and it is still good the next day. I use paper straws mainly for water in a large mug and iced tea and do not detect any change in flavor with these uses.
One mother says her children make quick work of paper straws. Come on Ma, I could make as quick work of a plastic staw as I did a paper straw when I was a kid. I grew up before plastic straws.
I understand that the people for plastic straws aren't interested in why they are bad for the oceans. For one reason plastic straws are so light they do not get separated into other plastic items like plastic plates or bottles (These are recyclable, Donald, and do not go into the ocean with garbage.** I had a deck made of Trex** recovered plastic, e.g grocery shopping bags. It required no maintenance.) so straws stay with the trash. I'm surprised but they get dumped into the ocean with the garbage.
When plastic does make it into the ocean it breaks down into smaller and smaller pieces known as “microplastics” rather than biodegrading or dissolving, which poses great threats to marine life including fish.***
I have to say that I saw a series of tweets mainly from people who ordered the Trump straws because they wanted to "stick it" to liberals. This doesn't sound very adult to me, but I guess it is where we are. They feel so strongly that they are willing to pay $1.50 for a Trump straw whereas a paper straw will cost 9 cents or less per straw. I can see buying an order as a collector's item by a Trump lover, but to pay that kind of money to stick it to liberals is incredible.
I would say the hierarchy of what should be done is:
Drink directly from the glass (best)
Use stainless steel straws (need occasional cleaning)
Use paper straws (disposable)
Use plastic straws as a last resort (worst)
* https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/19/trump-2020-campaign-selling-10-plastic-straws-for-15.html
** https://www.trex.com/recycling/recycling-partnerships/
*** https://www.strawlessocean.org/faq
Some examples of paper straws I have tried.
Bendable paper straws (unwrapped) - 100 for $8.99
https://www.amazon.com/Meijte-Bendable-Paper-Straws-White/dp/B07RB3QNF4/ref=sr_1_49?gclid=CjwKCAjwmtDpBRAQEiwAC6lm4zyiOuUCr07HwUthH2TBOILpN_Iche7FItqQRVELwOy6i7XNAHEKbxoC27MQAvD_BwE&hvadid=177772707240&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9010064&hvnetw=g&hvpos=1t4&hvqmt=e&hvrand=2502411152572318582&hvtargid=aud-646675774026%3Akwd-23354906356&hydadcr=21414_9712075&keywords=white+paper+straws&qid=1563754645&s=gateway&sr=8-49
Wrapped paper straws - 200 for 7>99
https://www.amazon.com/Dye-Free-Plasticless-Individually-Biodegradable-Food-Safe/dp/B07DLNGLJ4/ref=pd_rhf_se_p_img_2?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=AWSQ73BS7QTG8SPQN40T
The straws as advertised are nine inches long and bright red — the same shade as Trump’s ubiquitous “Make America Great Again” baseball caps — and they’re branded with a laser-engraved “TRUMP” on one end. The description touts the straws as being reusable, recyclable, BPA-free and made in America.
................................................................
Biodegradable paper straws have grown in popularity — but they’re often criticized for dissolving or affecting the taste of beverages.*
Trump says paper straws don't work. I have used only paper straws or no straws since this last Earth Day (April 20th). People that say they go mushy are lying. I have ordered paper straws from three different companies and they are all good. I have my hospital mug that holds 3-1/4 cups of water. I sip water all day and night using a paper straw, and it is still good the next day. I use paper straws mainly for water in a large mug and iced tea and do not detect any change in flavor with these uses.
One mother says her children make quick work of paper straws. Come on Ma, I could make as quick work of a plastic staw as I did a paper straw when I was a kid. I grew up before plastic straws.
I understand that the people for plastic straws aren't interested in why they are bad for the oceans. For one reason plastic straws are so light they do not get separated into other plastic items like plastic plates or bottles (These are recyclable, Donald, and do not go into the ocean with garbage.** I had a deck made of Trex** recovered plastic, e.g grocery shopping bags. It required no maintenance.) so straws stay with the trash. I'm surprised but they get dumped into the ocean with the garbage.
When plastic does make it into the ocean it breaks down into smaller and smaller pieces known as “microplastics” rather than biodegrading or dissolving, which poses great threats to marine life including fish.***
I have to say that I saw a series of tweets mainly from people who ordered the Trump straws because they wanted to "stick it" to liberals. This doesn't sound very adult to me, but I guess it is where we are. They feel so strongly that they are willing to pay $1.50 for a Trump straw whereas a paper straw will cost 9 cents or less per straw. I can see buying an order as a collector's item by a Trump lover, but to pay that kind of money to stick it to liberals is incredible.
I would say the hierarchy of what should be done is:
Drink directly from the glass (best)
Use stainless steel straws (need occasional cleaning)
Use paper straws (disposable)
Use plastic straws as a last resort (worst)
* https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/19/trump-2020-campaign-selling-10-plastic-straws-for-15.html
** https://www.trex.com/recycling/recycling-partnerships/
*** https://www.strawlessocean.org/faq
Some examples of paper straws I have tried.
Bendable paper straws (unwrapped) - 100 for $8.99
https://www.amazon.com/Meijte-Bendable-Paper-Straws-White/dp/B07RB3QNF4/ref=sr_1_49?gclid=CjwKCAjwmtDpBRAQEiwAC6lm4zyiOuUCr07HwUthH2TBOILpN_Iche7FItqQRVELwOy6i7XNAHEKbxoC27MQAvD_BwE&hvadid=177772707240&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9010064&hvnetw=g&hvpos=1t4&hvqmt=e&hvrand=2502411152572318582&hvtargid=aud-646675774026%3Akwd-23354906356&hydadcr=21414_9712075&keywords=white+paper+straws&qid=1563754645&s=gateway&sr=8-49
Wrapped paper straws - 200 for 7>99
https://www.amazon.com/Dye-Free-Plasticless-Individually-Biodegradable-Food-Safe/dp/B07DLNGLJ4/ref=pd_rhf_se_p_img_2?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=AWSQ73BS7QTG8SPQN40T
Saturday, July 20, 2019
LIFE'S PASSAGE - Biographical
Recently the Atlantic Magazine had an interesting article by Arthur Brooks titled "Your Professional Decline Is Coming (Much) Sooner Than You Think: Here’s how to make the most of it."*
After Apollo 11, I was asked by my super boss at the U.S. Geological Survey to take a detail with NASA to help set up the Lunar Sample Program. Though I had been opposed to the Space Program, something happened during Apollo 8 and the flight around the Moon and the Christmas Message. I had an epiphany and followed the adage, "There is no sinner like a converted sinner." I not only ended up buying all the trinkets but became involved with NASA even after my detail to NASA was over.
For example, I joined a Working Group in NASA on "Missions To Comets And Asteroids." that I found even more interesting than the Lunar sample program. When the Chief Scientist at Johnson space Center died (only 40 himself), I was asked to run the Lunar Sample AnalysisPlanning Team (LSAPT) that was the group of scientists that decided which scientist Principal Investigator should get which sample and how much. A lot of scientists felt constrained by this procedure and pronounced LSAPT as "Least Apt."
My detail to NASA concluded just as I was entering my 40s. It is said that most people feel a downer on turning 40, but I felt elated. I looked younger than my age, and I finally felt that I was now an adult. It used to be that when I would enter some bureaucrat's office, I got a look of "Who is this kid?"
Also, I was happy to return to the research that I loved. As my 40s rolled by, I began to notice that something was missing. Not only was less attention paid to my published work by my peers, but some other scientists felt it was all right to borrow from my studies without attribution. Good things happened also. I wrote a Monograph on "Lead Isotopes" has been cited more than 320 times in the scientific literature. It has been translated into Mandarin and Russian plus the Russians gave me a prize in 1976. A paper I wrote on mineral prospect evaluation has been cited nearly 300 times and became overused by the minerals divisions of the oil industry even though I had included cautionary statements. At the end of the 1970s, the grand finale of my studies on the behavior of lead isotopes in nature was published with my colleague Robert Zartman who told me that our paper became overused in China.
In the early 1980s, when I was in my early 50s,, I served as President of the Geochemical Society and gave a presidential address on the Past Is The Key to The Future** It was about at this time that I felt that I was mainly writing papers for myself.*** Also when I submitted a paper to a scientific meeting, I was assigned to Poster Sessions and not oral presentations. Another sign I was viewed as a has-been.
I have to admit, that I went much, much further than I ever dreamed as a child, but I also felt that I deserved so much more. My last scientific paper, published in 2002, has been cited only once. It was clear that I should move on. No sense crying about it. So I started a second career in non-scientific writing.
I have been fortunate to live in the times I do as I have been able to publish two novellas ["Swell Country" and "(All I Wanted Was) a Piece Of The Moon"] and a small book of my writings ("So How About An Asteroid Or Would You Believe A Comet") at no cost to me. These are available for purchase at Amazon as both paperback and online editions. In 2009, I started my blog Reunite Gondwanaland (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/) that has grown to over a thousand items with more than 100,000 page views. These efforts have kept my mind reasonably sharp, and I have lived a pleasant life, since my retirement, that is far longer than I ever dreamed and counting. I feel truly blessed.
For other items in this blog about my career, see:
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/03/fired-by-federal-government-biographical.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/05/you-must-wear-dress-biographical.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-tea-cup-seismograph-biographical.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/01/working-underground-my-rational-self.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/04/you-couldnt-have-been-on-that-plane.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/04/you-couldnt-have-been-on-that-plane_19.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/04/you-couldnt-have-been-on-that-plane_21.html
* https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/07/work-peak-professional-decline/590650/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
** Doe, B. R., l983, The past is the key to the future: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta v. 47, p. l34l-l354. (Geochemical Society Presidential Address)
Also, see in this blog: http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/01/global-housekeeping-challenge-is-issued.html Original in "Geotimes, 1990, pl 6."
*** This feeling seems to be born out by the citation index where papers with 50 or more citations were: 7 in the 1960s, 14 in the 1970s, 4 in the 1980s and 2 in the 1990s. From 4-49 citations there were 9 for the 1960s, 12 for the 1970s, 14 for the 1980s, 3 for the 1990s (out of 19 papers published), and 1 for 2000s (out of two). A paper with my colleague Robert Zartmen published in 1981 garnered 1801 citations and another in 1979 had 711 citations. Thus I would say that interest in my work peaked at just about 1980 when I was only 49.
After Apollo 11, I was asked by my super boss at the U.S. Geological Survey to take a detail with NASA to help set up the Lunar Sample Program. Though I had been opposed to the Space Program, something happened during Apollo 8 and the flight around the Moon and the Christmas Message. I had an epiphany and followed the adage, "There is no sinner like a converted sinner." I not only ended up buying all the trinkets but became involved with NASA even after my detail to NASA was over.
For example, I joined a Working Group in NASA on "Missions To Comets And Asteroids." that I found even more interesting than the Lunar sample program. When the Chief Scientist at Johnson space Center died (only 40 himself), I was asked to run the Lunar Sample AnalysisPlanning Team (LSAPT) that was the group of scientists that decided which scientist Principal Investigator should get which sample and how much. A lot of scientists felt constrained by this procedure and pronounced LSAPT as "Least Apt."
My detail to NASA concluded just as I was entering my 40s. It is said that most people feel a downer on turning 40, but I felt elated. I looked younger than my age, and I finally felt that I was now an adult. It used to be that when I would enter some bureaucrat's office, I got a look of "Who is this kid?"
Also, I was happy to return to the research that I loved. As my 40s rolled by, I began to notice that something was missing. Not only was less attention paid to my published work by my peers, but some other scientists felt it was all right to borrow from my studies without attribution. Good things happened also. I wrote a Monograph on "Lead Isotopes" has been cited more than 320 times in the scientific literature. It has been translated into Mandarin and Russian plus the Russians gave me a prize in 1976. A paper I wrote on mineral prospect evaluation has been cited nearly 300 times and became overused by the minerals divisions of the oil industry even though I had included cautionary statements. At the end of the 1970s, the grand finale of my studies on the behavior of lead isotopes in nature was published with my colleague Robert Zartman who told me that our paper became overused in China.
In the early 1980s, when I was in my early 50s,, I served as President of the Geochemical Society and gave a presidential address on the Past Is The Key to The Future** It was about at this time that I felt that I was mainly writing papers for myself.*** Also when I submitted a paper to a scientific meeting, I was assigned to Poster Sessions and not oral presentations. Another sign I was viewed as a has-been.
I have to admit, that I went much, much further than I ever dreamed as a child, but I also felt that I deserved so much more. My last scientific paper, published in 2002, has been cited only once. It was clear that I should move on. No sense crying about it. So I started a second career in non-scientific writing.
I have been fortunate to live in the times I do as I have been able to publish two novellas ["Swell Country" and "(All I Wanted Was) a Piece Of The Moon"] and a small book of my writings ("So How About An Asteroid Or Would You Believe A Comet") at no cost to me. These are available for purchase at Amazon as both paperback and online editions. In 2009, I started my blog Reunite Gondwanaland (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/) that has grown to over a thousand items with more than 100,000 page views. These efforts have kept my mind reasonably sharp, and I have lived a pleasant life, since my retirement, that is far longer than I ever dreamed and counting. I feel truly blessed.
For other items in this blog about my career, see:
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/03/fired-by-federal-government-biographical.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/05/you-must-wear-dress-biographical.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-tea-cup-seismograph-biographical.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/01/working-underground-my-rational-self.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/04/you-couldnt-have-been-on-that-plane.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/04/you-couldnt-have-been-on-that-plane_19.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/04/you-couldnt-have-been-on-that-plane_21.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/04/zurich-first-days-biography.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/12/muammar-qaddafi-and-me-biographical.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2009/11/you-are-so-lucky.html* https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/07/work-peak-professional-decline/590650/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
** Doe, B. R., l983, The past is the key to the future: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta v. 47, p. l34l-l354. (Geochemical Society Presidential Address)
Also, see in this blog: http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/01/global-housekeeping-challenge-is-issued.html Original in "Geotimes, 1990, pl 6."
*** This feeling seems to be born out by the citation index where papers with 50 or more citations were: 7 in the 1960s, 14 in the 1970s, 4 in the 1980s and 2 in the 1990s. From 4-49 citations there were 9 for the 1960s, 12 for the 1970s, 14 for the 1980s, 3 for the 1990s (out of 19 papers published), and 1 for 2000s (out of two). A paper with my colleague Robert Zartmen published in 1981 garnered 1801 citations and another in 1979 had 711 citations. Thus I would say that interest in my work peaked at just about 1980 when I was only 49.
Thursday, July 18, 2019
REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY OR AUTOCRACY?
America's more than 200 yr experiment as a Representative Democracy seems to be hanging by a thread. Our system of government is under attack as never before and its continuation is in the hands of a 79 yr-old woman, Nancy Pelosi.
Through misuse of the President's authority on National Security, refusing to obey laws, and having his aids refuse to honor subpoenas, President Trump has succeeded to become an autocratic president.*
I am near the end of life so why should I care about whether America abandons Representative Democracy for an autocratic state? But I do. The biblical phrase, of Jesus on the cross, comes to my mind, "Then Jesus said, “Father, forgive them, for they do not know what they are doing.” "****
A major part of the problem is Republicans in the Senate not being willing to act to rein in the President. The shocking thing is that more than a third of the adult population seems to approve of the President's autocratic ways. In fact, after President Trump's racist remarks about four women Representatives of color, his approval rating rose by 5 pts.**
It is curious in view of Trump's comments that the four women should go back to the countries they came from because 3 of the 4 Representatives were born in the U.S. In the case of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, not only was she born in the Bronx, NY, but so was her father, and her mother was born in Puerto Rico so is an American citizen by birth.***
It is curious in view of Trump's comments that the four women should go back to the countries they came from because 3 of the 4 Representatives were born in the U.S. In the case of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, not only was she born in the Bronx, NY, but so was her father, and her mother was born in Puerto Rico so is an American citizen by birth.***
I am near the end of life so why should I care about whether America abandons Representative Democracy for an autocratic state? But I do. The biblical phrase, of Jesus on the cross, comes to my mind, "Then Jesus said, “Father, forgive them, for they do not know what they are doing.” "****
*http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2019/04/president-trump-our-de-facto-dictator.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2019/06/president-trump-our-de-facto-dictator-ii.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/republican-support-for-trump-rises-after-racist-tweets-reutersipsos-poll.html
*** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandria_Ocasio-Cortez
**** https://biblehub.com/luke/23-34.htm
** https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/republican-support-for-trump-rises-after-racist-tweets-reutersipsos-poll.html
*** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandria_Ocasio-Cortez
**** https://biblehub.com/luke/23-34.htm
Tuesday, July 16, 2019
CLOSING AND OPENING OF RETAIL STORES
Below, I summarize store closing and opening given in the reference. You are encouraged to see the reference for details.
Brick and Mortar store closing seem to be accelerating.
So far, 7,062 store closures have been announced by U.S. retailers this year, according to a tracking done by Coresight Research. And the tally could top 12,000 by the end of 2019, setting a new record, Coresight says. Last year, Coresight tracked 5,524 store closures, down more than 30% from an all-time high of 8,139 closures announced in 2017.
But not all is bad news. As many stores are closing, some others are opening.
Amid all the closings, there are still retailers opening stores. Coresight has tracked 3,017 store opening announcements so far this year. This past Thursday, Lululemon opened its biggest store ever in Chicago. And there’s a massive, 3-million-square-foot mall called American Dream slated to open in New Jersey on Oct. 25.
Bed Bath And Beyond is closing at least 40 stores this year but will open another 15.
And some are going out of business. The big one is Payless ShoeSource is closing all 2,500 of its North American stores. Also large is Gymboree that is closing all 800 of its stores as well as its Crazy 8 stores. Dollar Stores is closing 390 Family Dollar stores, but not going out of business. Two examples of liquidating are Charming Charlie and Charlotte Russe, stores I've never heard of. Another I've never heard of is Top Shop that is closing all 11 of its stores in the U.S. Dress Barn is also closing. Bed And Body Works is unusual in that it is closing about 24 stores but opening 46, i.e. opening more than it is closing. The most famous store is J.C Penney that continues to close stores but still has a lot.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/13/retail-store-closures-in-2019-freds-charming-charlie-and-more.html
Brick and Mortar store closing seem to be accelerating.
So far, 7,062 store closures have been announced by U.S. retailers this year, according to a tracking done by Coresight Research. And the tally could top 12,000 by the end of 2019, setting a new record, Coresight says. Last year, Coresight tracked 5,524 store closures, down more than 30% from an all-time high of 8,139 closures announced in 2017.
But not all is bad news. As many stores are closing, some others are opening.
Amid all the closings, there are still retailers opening stores. Coresight has tracked 3,017 store opening announcements so far this year. This past Thursday, Lululemon opened its biggest store ever in Chicago. And there’s a massive, 3-million-square-foot mall called American Dream slated to open in New Jersey on Oct. 25.
Bed Bath And Beyond is closing at least 40 stores this year but will open another 15.
And some are going out of business. The big one is Payless ShoeSource is closing all 2,500 of its North American stores. Also large is Gymboree that is closing all 800 of its stores as well as its Crazy 8 stores. Dollar Stores is closing 390 Family Dollar stores, but not going out of business. Two examples of liquidating are Charming Charlie and Charlotte Russe, stores I've never heard of. Another I've never heard of is Top Shop that is closing all 11 of its stores in the U.S. Dress Barn is also closing. Bed And Body Works is unusual in that it is closing about 24 stores but opening 46, i.e. opening more than it is closing. The most famous store is J.C Penney that continues to close stores but still has a lot.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/13/retail-store-closures-in-2019-freds-charming-charlie-and-more.html
Saturday, July 13, 2019
DESEGREGATION BUSING
There was a time when there was forced busing of students from mostly White schools to mostly Black schools and from mostly Black schools to mostly White schools (called desegregation busing). The effects of busing to desegregate schools was a major issue in the 1960s and 1970s but, to some degree, continued into the first decade of this century. Most hadn't heard about busing until Sen. Kamala Harris (of Black and American Indian heritage) told about how she waited for the bus to take her to a desegregated school in the First Democratic Presidential "debate" for nominees for the 2020 presidential election.
Apparently, desegregation busing worked for Sen. Harris but was very controversial and led to the formation of many private schools for White students. Many parents choose to live where they feel there are good schools. to move to such a place and then have your children bused elsewhere was a frustration beyond belief. The complaints about desegregation busing not only came from Whites but blacks as well.
After busing, 60 percent of Boston parents, both black and white, reported more discipline problems in schools.[4]
.............................................................
Ultimately, many black leaders, from Wisconsin State Rep. Annette Polly Williams, a Milwaukee Democrat, to Cleveland Mayor Michael R. White led efforts to end busing.[26]
In 1978, a proponent of busing, Nancy St. John, studied 100 cases of urban busing from the North and did not find what she had been looking for;[4] she found no cases in which significant black academic improvement occurred, but many cases where race relations suffered due to busing, as those in forced-integrated schools had worse relations with those of the opposite race than those in non-integrated schools.[4] Researcher David Armour, also looking for hopeful signs, found that busing "heightens racial identity" and "reduces opportunities for actual contact between the races".[4] A 1992 study led by Harvard University Professor Gary Orfield, who supports busing, found black and Hispanic students lacked "even modest overall improvement" as a result of court-ordered busing.[27]*
Many things were done to avoid desegregation busing. Perhaps the most extreme was that of Prince Edward County, Virginia:
Berkeley’s school superintendent, Neil Sullivan, was also a vocal supporter of school desegregation. Sullivan took the Berkeley job in 1964, after successfully opening free schools in Prince Edward County, Virginia, which had closed its public schools to avoid court-ordered desegregation, leaving black students without public education for four years.**
Not all studies claim that overall busing did not work, there are studies of racially integrated school have benefits to both Minorities and Whites. One curious effect of busing was the decline in the number of black teachers. though this is often mentioned, I have not seen an explanation of why.
(https://tcf.org/content/facts/the-benefits-of-socioeconomically-and-racially-integrated-schools-and-classrooms/?session=1)(https://chalkbeat.org/posts/us/2019/07/01/busing-for-school-integration-succeed-work-research/)
I have read a book by a woman who is a Black who says that even within an "integrated" there is little mixing between the Minority students and the Whites. for example a lunchtime the Minority students will eat at their own tables and Whites at other tables.
(https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2017/09/06/beverly-daniel-tatum-discusses-new-version-why-are-all-black-kids-sitting-together)
I think it is safe to say that there no issue more heated than segregation busing.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desegregation_busing
** https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/kamala-harris-and-busing-debate/593047/
Apparently, desegregation busing worked for Sen. Harris but was very controversial and led to the formation of many private schools for White students. Many parents choose to live where they feel there are good schools. to move to such a place and then have your children bused elsewhere was a frustration beyond belief. The complaints about desegregation busing not only came from Whites but blacks as well.
After busing, 60 percent of Boston parents, both black and white, reported more discipline problems in schools.[4]
.............................................................
Ultimately, many black leaders, from Wisconsin State Rep. Annette Polly Williams, a Milwaukee Democrat, to Cleveland Mayor Michael R. White led efforts to end busing.[26]
In 1978, a proponent of busing, Nancy St. John, studied 100 cases of urban busing from the North and did not find what she had been looking for;[4] she found no cases in which significant black academic improvement occurred, but many cases where race relations suffered due to busing, as those in forced-integrated schools had worse relations with those of the opposite race than those in non-integrated schools.[4] Researcher David Armour, also looking for hopeful signs, found that busing "heightens racial identity" and "reduces opportunities for actual contact between the races".[4] A 1992 study led by Harvard University Professor Gary Orfield, who supports busing, found black and Hispanic students lacked "even modest overall improvement" as a result of court-ordered busing.[27]*
Many things were done to avoid desegregation busing. Perhaps the most extreme was that of Prince Edward County, Virginia:
Berkeley’s school superintendent, Neil Sullivan, was also a vocal supporter of school desegregation. Sullivan took the Berkeley job in 1964, after successfully opening free schools in Prince Edward County, Virginia, which had closed its public schools to avoid court-ordered desegregation, leaving black students without public education for four years.**
(https://tcf.org/content/facts/the-benefits-of-socioeconomically-and-racially-integrated-schools-and-classrooms/?session=1)(https://chalkbeat.org/posts/us/2019/07/01/busing-for-school-integration-succeed-work-research/)
(https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2017/09/06/beverly-daniel-tatum-discusses-new-version-why-are-all-black-kids-sitting-together)
I think it is safe to say that there no issue more heated than segregation busing.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desegregation_busing
** https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/kamala-harris-and-busing-debate/593047/
Sunday, July 7, 2019
CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT (after 1st Democratic debate)
I didn't listen to the whole debate last night (June 26), but I didn't hear anything to change my selections. It seemed like my 3rd choice Amy Klobuchar (turned 59 in May) did very well on the first night and Beto O'Rourke (47 in September) did well. On Morning Joe, people seemed most impressed with Julian Castro (44) perhaps followed by Cory Booker 40 b (April 27, 1969). In spite of Castro's performance, his polling numbers don't seem to have changed.
I'm shocked at how little attention is being paid by Democratic candidates to improve Obamacare or ACA. It was such a fight to get it and to keep it and now many Democrats are for scrapping it. Exceptions are Biden, O'Rourke, and Hickenlooper. Some are for Medicare at 50, such as Amy Klobuchar that I guess I can support but would rather see 60 as a step.
People for Medicare for all must be modifying it a lot because poor people couldn't afford it as it is now.
Our country is now being run by a very old group of people. Trump has turned 73 and his opponent Bill Wells has just turned 74. Mitch Mcconnell is 77 and Nancy Pelosi is 79. I have to admit, I would prefer Wells to Trump. My favorites are Beto O'rourke, Amy Klobuchar and Hickenlooper.. things do not look well for Hickenlooper. Klobuchar is getting lots of TV time right now, and O'Rourke's TV time has picked up.
But I cannot support any candidate that is for scrapping Obamacare (ACA). So I have to seriously consider Joe Biden, along with O'Rourke, Klobuchar and Michael Bennet.
It is just insane to scrap Obamacare. The thought of this leaves me limp. It goes along with Trump's abandoning the atomic bomb treaty with Iran.
Democratic candidates:
Here are the ages as of the geriatric candidates.:*
Bernie Sanders 78 in September (b September 8, 1941)
Joe Biden 77 in November (b November 20, 1942)
John Kerry 76 in December ((b December 11, 1943)
DonaldTrump 73 in June (b June 14, 1946)
Eliz. Warren 70 in June (b June 22, 1949)
John Hickenlooper 67 in February (b February 7, 1952)
Republican candidates:
Donald Trump 73 in June (b June 14, 1946)
Bill Wells 74 in July (b July 1, 1945)
Congressional leaders:
Mitch McConnell 77 ( b February 1942)
Nancy Pelosi 79 (b March 26, 1940)
I'm shocked at how little attention is being paid by Democratic candidates to improve Obamacare or ACA. It was such a fight to get it and to keep it and now many Democrats are for scrapping it. Exceptions are Biden, O'Rourke, and Hickenlooper. Some are for Medicare at 50, such as Amy Klobuchar that I guess I can support but would rather see 60 as a step.
People for Medicare for all must be modifying it a lot because poor people couldn't afford it as it is now.
Our country is now being run by a very old group of people. Trump has turned 73 and his opponent Bill Wells has just turned 74. Mitch Mcconnell is 77 and Nancy Pelosi is 79. I have to admit, I would prefer Wells to Trump. My favorites are Beto O'rourke, Amy Klobuchar and Hickenlooper.. things do not look well for Hickenlooper. Klobuchar is getting lots of TV time right now, and O'Rourke's TV time has picked up.
But I cannot support any candidate that is for scrapping Obamacare (ACA). So I have to seriously consider Joe Biden, along with O'Rourke, Klobuchar and Michael Bennet.
It is just insane to scrap Obamacare. The thought of this leaves me limp. It goes along with Trump's abandoning the atomic bomb treaty with Iran.
Democratic candidates:
Here are the ages as of the geriatric candidates.:*
Bernie Sanders 78 in September (b September 8, 1941)
Joe Biden 77 in November (b November 20, 1942)
John Kerry 76 in December ((b December 11, 1943)
DonaldTrump 73 in June (b June 14, 1946)
Eliz. Warren 70 in June (b June 22, 1949)
John Hickenlooper 67 in February (b February 7, 1952)
Republican candidates:
Donald Trump 73 in June (b June 14, 1946)
Bill Wells 74 in July (b July 1, 1945)
Congressional leaders:
Mitch McConnell 77 ( b February 1942)
Nancy Pelosi 79 (b March 26, 1940)
Friday, July 5, 2019
WILL THERE BE A RECESSION NEAR THE 2020 ELECTION?
(I have been able to make a copy of Recession Near The 2020 Election without all the trash. This post replaces the previous attempt.)
The reason I keep tracking what is going on in the economy is that I wonder if there will be a recession near the 2020 election?* President Trump followers seem to be so smitten with him that I doubt it would affect his vote much, but it probably would a little and that might be enough.
Company executives are getting more nervous about the state of the U.S. economy, with nearly half now expecting a recession within a year.*
Some 48.1% now see negative growth by the second quarter of 2020, according to the latest Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey. The results show that 69% figure a recession will start before the end of next year, which is roughly consistent with the previous survey in April that showed 67% were anticipating a downturn by the third quarter of 2020.*
There is all this hoopla over the Fed cutting rates as early as this month. With rates already at record lows As President Donald Trump’s trade wars rattle investors, Wall Street has reached for a security blanket: new Federal Reserve rate cuts to offset the economic damage.**
That measure of financial comfort could come as early as this week as the Fed meets for two days and issues a statement Wednesday. If not this week, nervous investors and the Trump White House hope for a rate cut in July, or perhaps September.**
Just how unusual it is for the Fed rates to be this low is shown in the figure.***
“The bar for precautionary cuts is lower if you are worried about the zero lower bound,’’ said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc, which predicts 0.75 percentage points of easing this year, one of the most aggressive calls on Wall Street.***
That said, economists are still parsing how much weight the Fed will put on the economic data in hand versus risks and uncertainties, and there isn’t much consensus. Twelve firms expect at least one cut this year, the Bloomberg survey showed, while 12 expect two cuts. Sixteen firms expected no cut at all, and two projected a hike.***
(Click on figure to enlarge)
Companies are forecasting lower earnings.**** With Tariffs of 10% to 25%, we should be seeing price inflation, something that is not yet seen. Assuming that the Government is actually collecting the tariffs, this must mean that companies are absorbing the tariffs so it follows that there will be a hit on corporate earnings.
..............................................................
Ahead of a season that starts in earnest the week of July 15, 77% of the 113 companies that have issued earnings per share guidance have warned that their numbers will be worse than what Wall Street analysts are estimating, according to FactSet.****
........................................................
A closely followed gauge of manufacturing in the New York area fell this month to its lowest level in nearly three years.****
(Second reference)
The Empire State Manufacturing Index tumbled to a -8.6 reading from 17.8 in May, a 26.4-point drop that was the biggest slide for a data series that goes back to 2001 and well below Wall Street expectations of 11.5. In all, 22% of respondents reported that conditions had improved since May while 30% said conditions worsened, according to the index, compiled by the New York Federal Reserve and indicating the difference between plans to expand and contract.****
Notes added July 3rd: The ten year Treasury dropped below two percent that is the lowest it has been since 2016. Note in the table at the end of the article that the 3 mo. Treasury is greater than the 10 yr Treasury. This often signals a recession. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/03/us-bonds-treasury-yields-tick-lower-as-investors-monitor-data.html)
Note added July 10th: The famous guru of CNBC on stocks "...pointed to New York Fed’s recession indicator, which is based off of the spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields."
“For the first time in a long, long time, [it] has popped above 30% likelihood of a recession in 2020,” Cashin said. “Whenever it gets up to 30% it’s had a pretty good history of calling it.”
.....................................................................
“I’m not talking about necessarily an immediate recession. What I’m saying is with the warning signs moving, Powell has got to move along and that’s exactly what he is doing,” Cashin said.
(https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/art-cashin-wearing-sp-500-3000-hat-warns-of-rising-recession-risk.html)
Then another economic forecaster says that the Fed would be wrong to lower the interest rates of Treasuries to stimulate inflation. I agree because the current Fed Funds rate of 2.25-2.50% is very low (see figure above). It is already inflationary and hasn't worked. David Kelly, the chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, told CNBC’s “Power Lunch” that he doesn’t think rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will boost the U.S. economy.
.....................................................................
You could go all the way down to zero on the Federal Funds Rate and not get to 2% inflation,” Kelly said.
(https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/jp-morgan-strategist-fed-is-making-a-mistake-by-cutting-rates.html)
Note added July 12th: Inflation may be coming after all? After all, the current rate for the Federal Funds Rate is 2.25-2.50% which by itself is inflationary by historical standards and great pressure is put on the Fed to lower the rate further (see above). I wonder what will happen? Can inflation get out of control when the Fed Zigs instead of Zags and lowers rates?
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/12/us-bonds-traders-await-fresh-data.html
* https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/duke-cfo-survey-corporate-executives-fearing-a-recession-in-2020.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/14/fed-rate-cut-may-not-be-security-blanket-wall-street-is-expecting.html
*** https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-16/powell-s-concern-over-zero-rates-seen-lowering-bar-for-fed-cut
**** https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/01/companies-are-warning-that-earnings-results-are-going-to-be-brutal.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/17/empire-state-manufacturing-index-just-saw-its-biggest-drop-in-18-years.html
The reason I keep tracking what is going on in the economy is that I wonder if there will be a recession near the 2020 election?* President Trump followers seem to be so smitten with him that I doubt it would affect his vote much, but it probably would a little and that might be enough.
Company executives are getting more nervous about the state of the U.S. economy, with nearly half now expecting a recession within a year.*
Some 48.1% now see negative growth by the second quarter of 2020, according to the latest Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey. The results show that 69% figure a recession will start before the end of next year, which is roughly consistent with the previous survey in April that showed 67% were anticipating a downturn by the third quarter of 2020.*
There is all this hoopla over the Fed cutting rates as early as this month. With rates already at record lows As President Donald Trump’s trade wars rattle investors, Wall Street has reached for a security blanket: new Federal Reserve rate cuts to offset the economic damage.**
That measure of financial comfort could come as early as this week as the Fed meets for two days and issues a statement Wednesday. If not this week, nervous investors and the Trump White House hope for a rate cut in July, or perhaps September.**
Just how unusual it is for the Fed rates to be this low is shown in the figure.***
“The bar for precautionary cuts is lower if you are worried about the zero lower bound,’’ said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc, which predicts 0.75 percentage points of easing this year, one of the most aggressive calls on Wall Street.***
That said, economists are still parsing how much weight the Fed will put on the economic data in hand versus risks and uncertainties, and there isn’t much consensus. Twelve firms expect at least one cut this year, the Bloomberg survey showed, while 12 expect two cuts. Sixteen firms expected no cut at all, and two projected a hike.***
Companies are forecasting lower earnings.**** With Tariffs of 10% to 25%, we should be seeing price inflation, something that is not yet seen. Assuming that the Government is actually collecting the tariffs, this must mean that companies are absorbing the tariffs so it follows that there will be a hit on corporate earnings.
..............................................................
Ahead of a season that starts in earnest the week of July 15, 77% of the 113 companies that have issued earnings per share guidance have warned that their numbers will be worse than what Wall Street analysts are estimating, according to FactSet.****
........................................................
A closely followed gauge of manufacturing in the New York area fell this month to its lowest level in nearly three years.****
(Second reference)
The Empire State Manufacturing Index tumbled to a -8.6 reading from 17.8 in May, a 26.4-point drop that was the biggest slide for a data series that goes back to 2001 and well below Wall Street expectations of 11.5. In all, 22% of respondents reported that conditions had improved since May while 30% said conditions worsened, according to the index, compiled by the New York Federal Reserve and indicating the difference between plans to expand and contract.****
Notes added July 3rd: The ten year Treasury dropped below two percent that is the lowest it has been since 2016. Note in the table at the end of the article that the 3 mo. Treasury is greater than the 10 yr Treasury. This often signals a recession. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/03/us-bonds-treasury-yields-tick-lower-as-investors-monitor-data.html)
Note added July 10th: The famous guru of CNBC on stocks "...pointed to New York Fed’s recession indicator, which is based off of the spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields."
“For the first time in a long, long time, [it] has popped above 30% likelihood of a recession in 2020,” Cashin said. “Whenever it gets up to 30% it’s had a pretty good history of calling it.”
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“I’m not talking about necessarily an immediate recession. What I’m saying is with the warning signs moving, Powell has got to move along and that’s exactly what he is doing,” Cashin said.
(https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/art-cashin-wearing-sp-500-3000-hat-warns-of-rising-recession-risk.html)
Then another economic forecaster says that the Fed would be wrong to lower the interest rates of Treasuries to stimulate inflation. I agree because the current Fed Funds rate of 2.25-2.50% is very low (see figure above). It is already inflationary and hasn't worked. David Kelly, the chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, told CNBC’s “Power Lunch” that he doesn’t think rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will boost the U.S. economy.
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You could go all the way down to zero on the Federal Funds Rate and not get to 2% inflation,” Kelly said.
(https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/jp-morgan-strategist-fed-is-making-a-mistake-by-cutting-rates.html)
Note added July 12th: Inflation may be coming after all? After all, the current rate for the Federal Funds Rate is 2.25-2.50% which by itself is inflationary by historical standards and great pressure is put on the Fed to lower the rate further (see above). I wonder what will happen? Can inflation get out of control when the Fed Zigs instead of Zags and lowers rates?
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/12/us-bonds-traders-await-fresh-data.html
* https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/duke-cfo-survey-corporate-executives-fearing-a-recession-in-2020.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/14/fed-rate-cut-may-not-be-security-blanket-wall-street-is-expecting.html
*** https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-16/powell-s-concern-over-zero-rates-seen-lowering-bar-for-fed-cut
**** https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/01/companies-are-warning-that-earnings-results-are-going-to-be-brutal.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/17/empire-state-manufacturing-index-just-saw-its-biggest-drop-in-18-years.html
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