I thought it couldn't happen in America, but it has. Right now, President Trump has imposed his dictatorial tendencies upon the country. How this has happened is shocking. Republicans in the Senate refuse to act so that the President is disregarding laws and subpoenas with impunity.
The Democratic House can take him to court, of course, but this is estimated to consume years and:
1.) What could the autocrat Trump do to make the Senate Rebulicans act?
Suppose the Supreme Court rules that Trump must turn over his 6 yrs of taxes legally requested by a House committee and the President still refuses? What then? Would the Senate Republicans act? If they wouldn't, here is one answer to this question:
Courts also have limited power to implement the decisions that they make. For example, if the president or another member of the executive branch chooses to ignore a ruling, there is very little that the federal courts can do about it.*
For example, the Supreme Court ruled against the removal of the Cherokee from their native lands in 1831. President Andrew Jackson disagreed. He proceeded with the removal of the Cherokee, and the Supreme Court was powerless to enforce its decision.*
In other words, there is a case where a Supreme Court verdict was ignored without retribution; however, even President Nixon obeyed a unanimous verdict by the Supreme Court that he turn over the tapes. But then I think that the autocrat Trump admires Andrew Jackson.
If the Attorney General tried to do something (unlikely in the present case**), the President could fire him and continue to fire others until someone was found that would do nothing (as happened with Nixon and the Saturday Night Massacre.).
2.) Suppose President Trump is both Impeached and Convicted but refuses to leave office. Could he be forcibly removed? The constitution has nothing to say about this. My guess is that the Secret Service would stay loyal to America and would forcibly surrender him. If the Secret Service stays loyal to the President, getting him out of the White House could be a problem. It could become a real mess, perhaps starve him out, but what about all the innocent people inside. Well, I don't want to pursue this one further. (https://www.nola.com/opinions/2017/12/what_if_trump_loses_and_refuse.html)
3.) Since our president likes the Dictator of Russia Putin so much (some refer to the Russification of America), what if he started to shoot newsmen on 5th Ave.? Lest you think I am going bonkers, this actual topic has actually been considered before me and not just once.*** And here is one concerning President Trump shooting Michael Cohn.****
The number of analysts who are saying that the president of the U.S. has unlimited power while in office (i.e. a dictator/autocrat) seems overwhelming and into an agreement with our current president becoming a Dictator. And as Michael Cohen said, “I fear that if he loses the election in 2020, that there will never be a peaceful transition of power. And this is why I agreed to appear before you today,” (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/27/michael-cohen-i-fear-trump-wont-give-up-the-white-house-if-he-loses-in-2020.html) It turns out that our form of Democracy is very fragile.
* http://www.ushistory.org/gov/9e.asp
** We are told that the present Attorney General is about to release the guy who tried to bomb a number of Democratic Party leaders so why would he oppose the president over a paltry Supreme Court decision.
*** https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/28/opinion/trump-midterms-shoot-fifth-avenue.html
https://www.ajc.com/blog/jay-bookman/opinion-right-there-the-middle-5th-avenue/9FjZnFT2c5Yv5qoGJzwlXP/
**** https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/23/trump-michael-cohen-broad-daylight
Sunday, April 28, 2019
Wednesday, April 24, 2019
HAPPINESS AND SOCIALISM
"They" feel that Socialism doesn’t work though most developed countries in the world are Socialistic to various extents. And the U.S. is pretty Socialistic as well with programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid. I call our system Social Capitalism in which the government doesn’t own most companies (It does own a number, however, even having corporation in the title.*), but contracts with them to run the country. Companies have offices that encircle Washington, D.C., called Beltway Bandits that bid on government contracts.
A major feature of the American political method is an attempt to keep competition alive among private companies because companies will strive not to have to compete. Perhaps the best example is the ACA (Obamacare) that is run by the insurance companies, and they have divided up the country to have only one choice available for health insurance so there is no competition. As to subsidies, a good example is milk that is subsidized 72% of the cost of production by the government. Regulations are needed to keep businesses competing. The word monopoly (like Depression) is no longer fashionable to use so there are other words used now like “barriers to entry” and “a moat.”
Incidentally, Socialistic countries tend to be the happiest. The happiest country in 2017 was Belgium that ranked #2 in 2018; however, it has slipped to #18 in 2019 It also has the highest taxes. Finland is ranked the happiest country in 2019. Belgium has a wide range of welfare benefits such as universal healthcare and subsidized education. It was also ranked the second most Socialistic country in the world after China with Finland in the #3 spot. These are followed by The Netherlands, Canada, Sweden, Norway, Ireland, New Zealand, and Belgium. Others high on the Socialistic ranking of happiest are Norway, Denmark, and Sweden.
Happiest countries 2019** Socialistic Ranking***
? China #1
.....................................................
#1. Finland #3
#2 Denmark #2
#3 Norway #7
#4 Iceland ?
#5 Netherlands #4
#6 Switzerland ?
#7 Sweden #6
#8 New Zealand #9
#9 Canada #5
#10 Austria ?
.......................................................
#18 Belgium #10
#19 United States ?
There are those who say that Sweden is no longer a socialistic country, however, they provide federal pensions, universal health care, unemployment insurance, education through Ph.D., child day care. In addition they provide leaves of absence of 6 mo. to start your own company, and to do education) with 16 mo. of parental leave, with all these at (at 80% of pay.
In contrast, I guess it is obvious America is not a happy country and it does not even crack the top 10. Signs that we are not happy is that we are told voters are angry and elected someone to shake up the country. America ranked 14th in 2017 and 17 in 2018.
STATES There is a 2014 ranking of the most Socialistic states that I find interesting.**** The basis of the ranking measures the amount of the state GDP that is spent by the state government that ranges from 16.8% for Kentucky to 35.1% for West Virginia, even more than Alaska and Mississippi. At least six of these states in the top 10 are "Red" states.
.
Ranking by state % state GDP spent
by the government
_____________ _______________
10. Kentucky 16.8%
9. Delaware
8. Hawaii
7. Vermont
6. New Mexico
5. Mississippi 20%
4. Wyoming
3. Arkansas
2. Alaska
1. West Virginia 35.1%
Basically, conservatives seem to feel that we cannot afford to help the poor and yet we consider ourselves to be Christians where the Savior was all about helping the poor. At the same time, conservatives do things to enrich the fortunes of the wealthy. I think conservatives would like a system where a few people control the money and support varies things to run the country. there should be enough of these people so that necessities would be covered
* The U.S. government owns quite a few companies, for one example the Tennessee Valley Authority. Among others are Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC), Fanny Mae, Freddie Mac, FDIC, Amtrack, Corporation for Public Broadcasting, Corporation For Community Service (AmeriCorp), Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, and the USPS, among many others (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-owned_enterprises_of_the_United_States) of course many of these are controversial
** https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2019/03/20/finland-worlds-happiest-country-2019/3221328002
** *http://blog.peerform.com/top-ten-most-socialist-countries-in-the-world/
**** https://www.thestreet.com/story/13275683/1/10-most-socialist-states-in-america.html#5/
A major feature of the American political method is an attempt to keep competition alive among private companies because companies will strive not to have to compete. Perhaps the best example is the ACA (Obamacare) that is run by the insurance companies, and they have divided up the country to have only one choice available for health insurance so there is no competition. As to subsidies, a good example is milk that is subsidized 72% of the cost of production by the government. Regulations are needed to keep businesses competing. The word monopoly (like Depression) is no longer fashionable to use so there are other words used now like “barriers to entry” and “a moat.”
Incidentally, Socialistic countries tend to be the happiest. The happiest country in 2017 was Belgium that ranked #2 in 2018; however, it has slipped to #18 in 2019 It also has the highest taxes. Finland is ranked the happiest country in 2019. Belgium has a wide range of welfare benefits such as universal healthcare and subsidized education. It was also ranked the second most Socialistic country in the world after China with Finland in the #3 spot. These are followed by The Netherlands, Canada, Sweden, Norway, Ireland, New Zealand, and Belgium. Others high on the Socialistic ranking of happiest are Norway, Denmark, and Sweden.
Happiest countries 2019** Socialistic Ranking***
? China #1
.....................................................
#1. Finland #3
#2 Denmark #2
#3 Norway #7
#4 Iceland ?
#5 Netherlands #4
#6 Switzerland ?
#7 Sweden #6
#8 New Zealand #9
#9 Canada #5
#10 Austria ?
.......................................................
#18 Belgium #10
#19 United States ?
There are those who say that Sweden is no longer a socialistic country, however, they provide federal pensions, universal health care, unemployment insurance, education through Ph.D., child day care. In addition they provide leaves of absence of 6 mo. to start your own company, and to do education) with 16 mo. of parental leave, with all these at (at 80% of pay.
In contrast, I guess it is obvious America is not a happy country and it does not even crack the top 10. Signs that we are not happy is that we are told voters are angry and elected someone to shake up the country. America ranked 14th in 2017 and 17 in 2018.
STATES There is a 2014 ranking of the most Socialistic states that I find interesting.**** The basis of the ranking measures the amount of the state GDP that is spent by the state government that ranges from 16.8% for Kentucky to 35.1% for West Virginia, even more than Alaska and Mississippi. At least six of these states in the top 10 are "Red" states.
.
Ranking by state % state GDP spent
by the government
_____________ _______________
10. Kentucky 16.8%
9. Delaware
8. Hawaii
7. Vermont
6. New Mexico
5. Mississippi 20%
4. Wyoming
3. Arkansas
2. Alaska
1. West Virginia 35.1%
Basically, conservatives seem to feel that we cannot afford to help the poor and yet we consider ourselves to be Christians where the Savior was all about helping the poor. At the same time, conservatives do things to enrich the fortunes of the wealthy. I think conservatives would like a system where a few people control the money and support varies things to run the country. there should be enough of these people so that necessities would be covered
* The U.S. government owns quite a few companies, for one example the Tennessee Valley Authority. Among others are Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC), Fanny Mae, Freddie Mac, FDIC, Amtrack, Corporation for Public Broadcasting, Corporation For Community Service (AmeriCorp), Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, and the USPS, among many others (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-owned_enterprises_of_the_United_States) of course many of these are controversial
** https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2019/03/20/finland-worlds-happiest-country-2019/3221328002
** *http://blog.peerform.com/top-ten-most-socialist-countries-in-the-world/
**** https://www.thestreet.com/story/13275683/1/10-most-socialist-states-in-america.html#5/
Tuesday, April 23, 2019
THE CASE AGAINST IMPEACHMENT - II
This item is an extension to the previous post of The Case Against Impeachment *and deals with what may happen if the Democrats impeach the President. When the impeachment goes to the Senate for trial, there is no guarantee that the Leader of The Senate will bring the matter up for a vote. I feel that it is more likely that the Leader of The Senate will bring it up directly to a vote without discussion as he did for The Green New Deal.
An alternative to impeachment might be to Censure the President that was last used against President Andrew Jackson.** Democrats even proposed to censure President Clinton rather than impeach him though the Republicans weren't having any of it.
For a censure to pass the Senate, it would take 60 votes, a difficult hurdle to attain, but it might gain some Republican votes if brought up. Certainly Mitt Romney's comments amount to a censure. Some other Republican that might feel they have to vote for censure would be Susan Collins and Cory Gardner, perhaps among others.
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-case-against-impeachment.html
** http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/04/barring-impeachment-democrats-could-still-censure-trump.html
An alternative to impeachment might be to Censure the President that was last used against President Andrew Jackson.** Democrats even proposed to censure President Clinton rather than impeach him though the Republicans weren't having any of it.
For a censure to pass the Senate, it would take 60 votes, a difficult hurdle to attain, but it might gain some Republican votes if brought up. Certainly Mitt Romney's comments amount to a censure. Some other Republican that might feel they have to vote for censure would be Susan Collins and Cory Gardner, perhaps among others.
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-case-against-impeachment.html
** http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/04/barring-impeachment-democrats-could-still-censure-trump.html
Saturday, April 20, 2019
THE CASE AGAINST IMPEACHMENT
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has said that she opposes impeachment because it is too divisive and not worth it. I heartily agree and here is why:
The Democrats in the House could impeach the President.
But impeachment in the political system is only the equivalent to an indictment in the legal system.
So from the House, the matter must go to the Senate for trial. Assuming that all Democratic Senators vote guilty, they would still need 20 Republican Senators for a guilty verdict. So far as I can see, they couldn't get even one Republican vote.
So the vote to convict would fail. and the President would continue on as if nothing happened This would just provide the President with the claim that he is exonerated in a reelection bid. Remember Bill Clinton was impeached and filled out the remainder of his second term as president. He also retired with a 60% favorable rating. If he was able to run for a third term, my guess is that he would have won.
I have one more point, personally, in that I see no advantage to having the Vice President become President.
Of course Nancy Pelosi knows all of this so impeachment should be off the table.
Wednesday, April 17, 2019
WAR ON AMERICANS?
It seems as if President Trump is at war with Americans. His tariffs are pushing up prices, taking away whatever benefit they may have received from the tax cut.* In addition, many farmers are leaving their crop of soy beams to rot in the fields because of the tariff war.**
The government will pay up to $9.6 billion to crop and livestock producers to buffer the impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war, announced Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue on Monday, with the release of a second and final round of $4.7 billion in the Trump tariff payments.**
Still, lots of farmers are going bankrupt.* His attacks on our allies are isolating us in the world. His attacks on abortion are limiting women's choices, but one is insisting that a woman should get an abortion.**
Here is one estimate of the costs to Americans from the Global Trade War:*
(Click On Figure To Enlarge)
*https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/07/12/upshot/trade-war-cost-families.html
https://www.salon.com/2019/02/13/midwest-farmers-going-broke-at-record-rates-thanks-to-trumps-trade-war/
** As it turns out, the Federal government is helping farmers cope with the manufactured tariff problem by subsidizing them.
https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/trump-to-cut-soybean-farmers-a-check-for-165-per-bushel
https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/trump-writes-soybean-farmers-2nd-check-for-tariff-troubles
*** Although in American we don't pay women to have babies (though we do give a $1,000 tax break per child****), it is known to happen in the world (e.bg. Japan and a part of Italy)
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/why-people-in-japan-are-being-paid-to-have-babies
https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p06q933g/the-town-that-paid-women-to-have-babies
**** https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/ten-facts-about-the-child-tax-credit
The government will pay up to $9.6 billion to crop and livestock producers to buffer the impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war, announced Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue on Monday, with the release of a second and final round of $4.7 billion in the Trump tariff payments.**
Still, lots of farmers are going bankrupt.* His attacks on our allies are isolating us in the world. His attacks on abortion are limiting women's choices, but one is insisting that a woman should get an abortion.**
Here is one estimate of the costs to Americans from the Global Trade War:*
*https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/07/12/upshot/trade-war-cost-families.html
https://www.salon.com/2019/02/13/midwest-farmers-going-broke-at-record-rates-thanks-to-trumps-trade-war/
** As it turns out, the Federal government is helping farmers cope with the manufactured tariff problem by subsidizing them.
https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/trump-to-cut-soybean-farmers-a-check-for-165-per-bushel
https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/trump-writes-soybean-farmers-2nd-check-for-tariff-troubles
*** Although in American we don't pay women to have babies (though we do give a $1,000 tax break per child****), it is known to happen in the world (e.bg. Japan and a part of Italy)
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/why-people-in-japan-are-being-paid-to-have-babies
https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p06q933g/the-town-that-paid-women-to-have-babies
**** https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/ten-facts-about-the-child-tax-credit
Friday, April 12, 2019
ROD, GO. PLEASE. JUST GO.
Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, a President Trump appointee, served during the whole period of the Mueller investigation and took a lot of verbal punishment during this period. Rosenstein is one of the few Trump appointees who escaped with his reputation in tact.
Now Rosenstein has tendered an apology for the new Attorney General Barr and his five page summary of the Mueller report.
He did speak up on Barr's claim of the intelligence community "spying" on the Trump campaign, something that has been litigated already and found nothing wrong.
It isn’t known whether Mr. Barr’s review will examine any of Mr. Rosenstein’s actions, namely that he approved an application to ask a court to grant continued surveillance of former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page, who had long been on the radar of U.S. counterintelligence for his communications with Russians.
Mr. Rosenstein wouldn’t comment on Mr. Barr’s inquiry of that counterintelligence probe, but he said generally that he is open to objective scrutiny and stands by his approval of the renewal.
Some time ago, I even labeled Mr Rosenstein to be a Hero for his ability to withstand the pressures from the White House, among others.**
I admire Rosenstein's Heroic** Strength in doing what he did. He is right up there with the finest Republicans along with Sec. Defense Jim Mattis.**
Rosenstein did write the draft letter giving a reason to fire James Comey as head of the FBI. ** Actually, I thought the letter was appropriate because it's conclusion was based on how comey handled the Hillary Clinton affair. Rosenstein does still stand behind the letter which I think is fine.
Now Rosenstein is endangering his reputation by knuckling under to the politician, Attorney General Barr who is acting like Trump's lawyer rather than Americas lawyer..
* https://www.wsj.com/articles/rod-rosenstein-defends-justice-department-handling-of-mueller-report-11555021002
** tps://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/rosenstein-barr-sessions-justice/2019/01/09/id/897433/?
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/06/my-hero.html
Now Rosenstein has tendered an apology for the new Attorney General Barr and his five page summary of the Mueller report.
He did speak up on Barr's claim of the intelligence community "spying" on the Trump campaign, something that has been litigated already and found nothing wrong.
It isn’t known whether Mr. Barr’s review will examine any of Mr. Rosenstein’s actions, namely that he approved an application to ask a court to grant continued surveillance of former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page, who had long been on the radar of U.S. counterintelligence for his communications with Russians.
Mr. Rosenstein wouldn’t comment on Mr. Barr’s inquiry of that counterintelligence probe, but he said generally that he is open to objective scrutiny and stands by his approval of the renewal.
Some time ago, I even labeled Mr Rosenstein to be a Hero for his ability to withstand the pressures from the White House, among others.**
I admire Rosenstein's Heroic** Strength in doing what he did. He is right up there with the finest Republicans along with Sec. Defense Jim Mattis.**
Rosenstein did write the draft letter giving a reason to fire James Comey as head of the FBI. ** Actually, I thought the letter was appropriate because it's conclusion was based on how comey handled the Hillary Clinton affair. Rosenstein does still stand behind the letter which I think is fine.
Now Rosenstein is endangering his reputation by knuckling under to the politician, Attorney General Barr who is acting like Trump's lawyer rather than Americas lawyer..
* https://www.wsj.com/articles/rod-rosenstein-defends-justice-department-handling-of-mueller-report-11555021002
** tps://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/rosenstein-barr-sessions-justice/2019/01/09/id/897433/?
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/06/my-hero.html
Wednesday, April 10, 2019
FRACKING: JUST HOW PROFITABLE IS IT?
In 2014, I published a piece on the break-even price of Fracking.* Since this is now 5 yrs later, I thought an update would be in order. For example, has Fracking become more efficient and thus lowered costs?
I have found an article that lists only 7 of 29 Fracking companies with positive free cash flow in 2018.** EOG Resources is the only one with a free cash flow of over a billion dollars. Adding all the free cash flow of the 27 companies together, the group had a loss (i.e. negative) free cash flow of $6,690 million.
It seems to be the case that, since the production from Fracking is increasing, the companies are trying to make up their losses by the old joke of selling more oil and gas (at a loss).
It is a very interesting article and I recommend reading the whole thing.**
Note added April 19, 2019: “The U.S. oil price needed for shale oil to be profitable is around $53 a barrel or above,” said Roy Martin, an analyst at consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. According to Barclays , a price of $60 is needed to sustain growth in excess of 0.5 million barrels a day.
(Click on figure to enlarge)
(https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-vs-shale-the-battle-for-oil-price-supremacy-11555588826?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=7)
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/10/break-even-price-of-fracking-oil.html
** http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Q4-2018_More-Red-Flags-on-Fracking_March-2019.pdf
I have found an article that lists only 7 of 29 Fracking companies with positive free cash flow in 2018.** EOG Resources is the only one with a free cash flow of over a billion dollars. Adding all the free cash flow of the 27 companies together, the group had a loss (i.e. negative) free cash flow of $6,690 million.
It seems to be the case that, since the production from Fracking is increasing, the companies are trying to make up their losses by the old joke of selling more oil and gas (at a loss).
It is a very interesting article and I recommend reading the whole thing.**
Note added April 19, 2019: “The U.S. oil price needed for shale oil to be profitable is around $53 a barrel or above,” said Roy Martin, an analyst at consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. According to Barclays , a price of $60 is needed to sustain growth in excess of 0.5 million barrels a day.
(https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-vs-shale-the-battle-for-oil-price-supremacy-11555588826?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=7)
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/10/break-even-price-of-fracking-oil.html
** http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Q4-2018_More-Red-Flags-on-Fracking_March-2019.pdf
Saturday, April 6, 2019
ECONOMY - APRIL 2019
There still seems to be confusing information on the economy. Bryan Moynihan says that the economy is in good shape ("More people are working now than ever, the unemployment claims are low, wages are growing fast...It's a good place, right now," Moynihan told CNBC's Wilfred Frost in an interview).* This evaluation is in response to the Secretary of the President's Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow who is panicky and says the Fed needs to cut rates immediately and by a half of a percent rather than a quarter of a percent. ** I'm gradually beginning to get a hang for what is going on.
One analyst has pointed out that President Trump has quite a few loans that are variable/adjustable rate, so any increase in the interest rates costs him a lot of money.*** But at a rate by the Fed of 2.25-2.5%, my view is that rates are incredibly low historically. (https://www.jpmorganchase.com/corporate/About-JPMC/historical-prime-rate.htm)
Bryan Moynihan is not all the good news, however. The Walmart CEO says that the consumer is in pretty good shape.* Also manufacturing good and construction spending up*
But these are not the whole story. There are others who feel that the next move by the Fed is to cut rates.**** And while there are plenty of jobs, there is also a problem of fitting job seekers to a job.**** Also the yield ion the 2 yr Treasury has been higher than the 5 yr, which is unsettling because an inverted yield curve (short term rates high than longer term rates often signals a recession. We do not have a whole inversion yet, so there are those who feel that a recession if premature.****
My conclusion is that , for now, it is full steam ahead on the economy.
* https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/02/bank-of-america-ceo-brian-moynihan-says-us-economy-is-strong.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/04/walmart-ceo-the-american-consumer-is-in-pretty-good-shape-right-now.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/01/ism-.html
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/deutsche-bank-weighed-extending-trump-loans-on-default-risk/ar-BBTQkDA
****https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/01/the-biggest-question-for-the-market-entering-the-second-quarter-recession-or-just-a-soft-patch.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/dallas-fed-president-too-soon-for-fed-to-consider-cutting-rates-11553679121
https://qz.com/1583024/us-gdp-growth-weaker-than-originally-thought-as-sugar-high-wears-off/
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/05/americas-bustling-jobs-market-is-still-leaving-some-people-behind.html
https://www.jpmorganchase.com/corporate/About-JPMC/historical-prime-rate.htm
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/a-key-recession-indicator-just-did-something-that-hasnt-happened-in-12-years.html
One analyst has pointed out that President Trump has quite a few loans that are variable/adjustable rate, so any increase in the interest rates costs him a lot of money.*** But at a rate by the Fed of 2.25-2.5%, my view is that rates are incredibly low historically. (https://www.jpmorganchase.com/corporate/About-JPMC/historical-prime-rate.htm)
Bryan Moynihan is not all the good news, however. The Walmart CEO says that the consumer is in pretty good shape.* Also manufacturing good and construction spending up*
But these are not the whole story. There are others who feel that the next move by the Fed is to cut rates.**** And while there are plenty of jobs, there is also a problem of fitting job seekers to a job.**** Also the yield ion the 2 yr Treasury has been higher than the 5 yr, which is unsettling because an inverted yield curve (short term rates high than longer term rates often signals a recession. We do not have a whole inversion yet, so there are those who feel that a recession if premature.****
My conclusion is that , for now, it is full steam ahead on the economy.
* https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/02/bank-of-america-ceo-brian-moynihan-says-us-economy-is-strong.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/04/walmart-ceo-the-american-consumer-is-in-pretty-good-shape-right-now.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/01/ism-.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/29/white-house-advisor-kudlow-says-fed-should-cut-rates-report.html
*** https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-still-owes-lenders-including-deutsche-bank-as-much-as-480-million-2018-05-16https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/deutsche-bank-weighed-extending-trump-loans-on-default-risk/ar-BBTQkDA
****https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/01/the-biggest-question-for-the-market-entering-the-second-quarter-recession-or-just-a-soft-patch.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/dallas-fed-president-too-soon-for-fed-to-consider-cutting-rates-11553679121
https://qz.com/1583024/us-gdp-growth-weaker-than-originally-thought-as-sugar-high-wears-off/
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/05/americas-bustling-jobs-market-is-still-leaving-some-people-behind.html
https://www.jpmorganchase.com/corporate/About-JPMC/historical-prime-rate.htm
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/a-key-recession-indicator-just-did-something-that-hasnt-happened-in-12-years.html
Wednesday, April 3, 2019
MY FAVORITE CANDIDATES - APRIL
Here are the ages as of the geriatric candidates, March 20019:*
Bernie Sanders 78 in September (b September 8, 1941)
Joe Biden 77 in November (b November 20, 1942)
John Kerry 76 in December ((b December 11, 1943)
DonaldTrump 73 in June (b June 14, 1946)
Eliz. Warren 70 in June (b June 22, 1949)
John Hickenlooper 67 in February (b February 7, 1952)
My favorites are (no change from March):
Favorite #1 is Beto O'Rourke 47 in September (September 26,1972).
Favorite #2 is John Hickenlooper 67 in February (b February 7, 1952)
Favorite #3 is Amy (True Grit) Klobuchar 59 in May (May 25, 1960)
I reserve the right to change my opinion.
Though I would love to have a president from my generation (the Depleted Generation from 1930-1945, i.e. the Great Depression and WW-II), I feel that Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden chances should be over. As I have written elsewhere, I don't know what happened to the Baby Boomers, Remember when Baby Boomers back in the 1960s used to say "You can't trust anyone over 30." Now they seem to say, "You can't trust anyone younger than 70.*
Some other candidates are: Cory Booker will be 50 in April (April 27, 1969), Kirsten Gillibrand will be 53 (December 9, 1966), Kamala Harris will be 55 in October (October 20, 1964) plus Julian Castro 44, Pete Buttigieg 37, Tulsi Gabbard 36
I have heard Mayor Pete Buttigieg interviewed several times in the last month, and he is very impressive. On the Morning Joe news program, O'Rourke, Kamala Harris and Buttigieg have been referred to as political athletes.
Very Interesting write-ups
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beto_O%27Rourke
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hickenlooper
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Klobuchar
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2019/02/presidential-candidates-ages.html
Bernie Sanders 78 in September (b September 8, 1941)
Joe Biden 77 in November (b November 20, 1942)
John Kerry 76 in December ((b December 11, 1943)
DonaldTrump 73 in June (b June 14, 1946)
Eliz. Warren 70 in June (b June 22, 1949)
John Hickenlooper 67 in February (b February 7, 1952)
My favorites are (no change from March):
Favorite #1 is Beto O'Rourke 47 in September (September 26,1972).
Favorite #2 is John Hickenlooper 67 in February (b February 7, 1952)
Favorite #3 is Amy (True Grit) Klobuchar 59 in May (May 25, 1960)
I reserve the right to change my opinion.
Though I would love to have a president from my generation (the Depleted Generation from 1930-1945, i.e. the Great Depression and WW-II), I feel that Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden chances should be over. As I have written elsewhere, I don't know what happened to the Baby Boomers, Remember when Baby Boomers back in the 1960s used to say "You can't trust anyone over 30." Now they seem to say, "You can't trust anyone younger than 70.*
Some other candidates are: Cory Booker will be 50 in April (April 27, 1969), Kirsten Gillibrand will be 53 (December 9, 1966), Kamala Harris will be 55 in October (October 20, 1964) plus Julian Castro 44, Pete Buttigieg 37, Tulsi Gabbard 36
I have heard Mayor Pete Buttigieg interviewed several times in the last month, and he is very impressive. On the Morning Joe news program, O'Rourke, Kamala Harris and Buttigieg have been referred to as political athletes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beto_O%27Rourke
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hickenlooper
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Klobuchar
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2019/02/presidential-candidates-ages.html
Tuesday, April 2, 2019
IF KIRSCHNER'S TELLING THE SAUDI'S OUR SECRETS BOTHERS YOU ...
... what about President Trump? We know of at least two secrets he told the Russians, and one of these was a secret of Israel's and not the U.S., yet President Trump remains very popular in Israel probably because of his moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. His popularity must be further enhanced by his supporting Israel's claim to the Golan heights.
So we know that President Trump has told secrets to the Russians, and what does he do with all those private meetings and telephone calls to Putin, some/many without an American translator (He uses the Russian translator)? * The only safe thing for our security is to assume that any secret Trump knows, the Russians know also.
So how are our security agencies handling this?
Note added September 13, 2019: So CNN’s scoop on Monday about the exfiltration of a top American intelligence asset in Russia is, like so much in the Trump era, both staggering and not at all surprising. According to CNN, in a secret mission in 2017, America “extracted from Russia one of its highest-level covert sources inside the Russian government,” partly because of worries that Trump’s cavalier handling of intelligence information could expose the person. On Monday evening, The New York Times added to the story, reporting that the source was a Russian official whose job provided “access to the highest level of the Kremlin.”
* According to a NY Times article on January 15, 2019, there are known to be 9 phone call, 4 letters, and 5 meetings between President Trump and Vladimir Putin.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-putin-hide-conversations-778402/
** https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/15/us/politics/trump-putin-meetings-phone-calls.html
So we know that President Trump has told secrets to the Russians, and what does he do with all those private meetings and telephone calls to Putin, some/many without an American translator (He uses the Russian translator)? * The only safe thing for our security is to assume that any secret Trump knows, the Russians know also.
So how are our security agencies handling this?
Note added September 13, 2019: So CNN’s scoop on Monday about the exfiltration of a top American intelligence asset in Russia is, like so much in the Trump era, both staggering and not at all surprising. According to CNN, in a secret mission in 2017, America “extracted from Russia one of its highest-level covert sources inside the Russian government,” partly because of worries that Trump’s cavalier handling of intelligence information could expose the person. On Monday evening, The New York Times added to the story, reporting that the source was a Russian official whose job provided “access to the highest level of the Kremlin.”
* According to a NY Times article on January 15, 2019, there are known to be 9 phone call, 4 letters, and 5 meetings between President Trump and Vladimir Putin.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-putin-hide-conversations-778402/
** https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/15/us/politics/trump-putin-meetings-phone-calls.html
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