If we are honest, we remember our teenage years when we spent a lot of time examining our parents and other adults real or imagined faults. It is the Age of Rebellion in preparation for flying the coup out into society. Thus it is no surprise that, when Fox News Laura Ingraham (55) insulted 17-yr old survivor of the Parkland shooting David Hogg on her TV show, he did not throw insults back but hit her where it hurt, i.e. through getting advertisers to boycott her show.*
This caused shock jock Ingraham to offer an apology to Hogg in the spirit of "Holy Week." If it wasn't Holy Week, she wouldn't have apologized.? At any rate, Hogg knew what was going on and wouldn't accept her apology and said that she is a bully and needed to be addressed as such. He said it was the issues that are at stake, not personalities.*
As any parent of teenagers can attest, you must be careful of the way you deal with teenagers. Hogg's 14 yr-old sister has also gotten into the act.**
Some time ago I wondered what the fuss is all about on Laura Ingraham so I started listening to her Ingraham Angle TV show. I got the impression that she grew up in a working class family (her maternal grandparents were immigrants from Poland and her father an Irish American), and has never gotten over it. She seems to live to give it to the "Swells." But she was admirably motivated to get a B.A. from Dartmouth and a law degree from the University of Virginia. She has three adopted children. I don't know if she ever passed the bar examination to become a practicing lawyer.***
Ingraham was a homophobe, but there is nothing like having someone in the family with a condition to change your views. It turns out that her brother is Gay, and she became impressed with how her brother and his partner coped with AIDs, thus changing her views. She now even approves of civil unions for Gays.***
* https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/29/business/media/laura-ingraham-david-hogg.html
** https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2018/03/29/lauren-hogg-and-david-hogg-fight-back-against-laura-ingraham-s-bullying/219783
*** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Ingraham
Friday, March 30, 2018
Thursday, March 29, 2018
EFFECT OF TARIFFS
The figure above summarizes a report from CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/23/trumps-tariffs-trade-war-will-be-bad-for-us-and-china-cnbc-survey.html).
It looks like the steel and aluminum tariff fiasco has been subdued.* I don't understand why we did to South Korea what we did because we import most of our steel pipe and tubing from them. We just don't have the capacity to make it in the U.S. at this time. At any rate, the tariff costs will be handed off to consumers. Whether this extra cost is sufficient to stop some pipeline and tubing projects is not clear.
Though we do import a lot of steel and aluminum from Canada, overall we have a trade surplus with them because they buy a lot of services from us. Our president doesn't know such things. Our president is a loose cannon** who doesn't bother to check the facts.
We take the Canadian raw steel and aluminum and make it into value-added products. And in spite of all the imports, the U.S. still made 83 million tons of steel last year. That certainly sounds like we have a steel industry to me. And China now supplies only about 2.5% of our imported steel. It is true that a few years ago they were dumping a lot of steel on us, but Obama negotiated a deal where China closed a lot of its steel plants that were making excess steel. Again, our president didn't know what is going on.
President Tump has imposed a 20% tariff on imported soft-wood lumber from Canada which is estimated to add about $3,000 to the cost of an average house.***
President Trump is certainly not consumer friendly, His new tariffs on China should have two effects:
One is that U.S. consumers will be hurt. The typical consumer has about $260 in extra purchasing power as a result of trade with China. Those benefits, which disproportionately go toward working-class Americans, will fall due to the U.S. tariffs, as American importers will pass some of their increased costs along to consumers.
Secondly, American companies that export to China will be exposed to retaliation in the form of tariffs on U.S.-made goods. Shortly after Trump’s announcement, China released its own policy statement targeting $3 billion worth of U.S. exports.
Particularly vulnerable to Chinese retaliation are the pork and soybean industries, which are concentrated in the Trump-friendly Midwest. This list could grow if a trade war with China escalates.****
It looks like our president is functionally illiterate. I think he knows how to read, but apparently only with considerable difficulty so he avoids reading. I don't say this as a ciriticism because it is how he is and we must deal with it. [Note added March 30, 2018: Trump must have had adequate reading ability in college so something has happened to him since. One possibility is that he has had a small stroke affecting the part of the brain doing reading comprehension. Another possibility is that he has lost reading ability through lack of use, i.e. he never learned to read for pleasure..]
* https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2018/03/us-department-commerce-announces-steel-and-aluminum-tariff-exclusion
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/eu-brazil-south-korea-and-others-get-temporary-exemptions-from-trumps-steel-tariffs/2018/03/22/9d0fac5a-2de4-11e8-8dc9-3b51e028b845_story.html?utm_term=.ffd96e943f42
** President Trump has taken it upon himself to go after Amazon claiming they don't pay enough state and local tax on their sales. Actually, Amazon does collect the tax for state and local communities for their own products and has started taking the tax on 3rd party sales for states that demand they do so. Currently, this is the state of Washington but will add Pennsylvania on April 1.
Because the Federal government does have controls over interstate commerce, if Congress wants to pass a law that 3rd party sales taxes are collected for all states that have sales taxes on 3rd party sales, I'm sure that Amazon would comply. It is no big deal. Currently, Amazon pays about $200 million to state and local governments so adding 3rd party sales would maybe double the sum.
*** https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2017/11/02/u-s-moves-forward-with-canadian-lumber-tariffs-after-settlement-talks-fail/?utm_term=.33324975f820
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-homebuilders-buyers-would-feel-pain-of-canadian-lumber-tariff-2017-04-24
**** https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2017/11/02/u-s-moves-forward-with-canadian-lumber-tariffs-after-settlement-talks-fail/?utm_term=.33324975f820
Tuesday, March 27, 2018
CUTS TO MEDICARE, MEDICAID, SOCIAL SECURITY, SNAP, LIHEAP
The safety net, meant to take some of the rough edges off of capitalism, that has long been a part of America is being steeply eroded. AARP has an article listing the cuts to health and assistance programs in the Federal government. You are urged to read the whole article because I have summarized only a small part of the listings (the URL is long but I have tested it).
President Trump unveiled his federal budget proposal Monday, which takes aim at many of the health and safety net programs that older Americans rely on. The plan sharply reduces funding for Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security Disability Insurance and food stamps.
..............................................................
Medicare The budget cuts $237 billion over 10 years.
https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2018/trump-budget-affects-seniors-fd.html?cmp=EMC-DSO-NLC-WBLTR---MCTRL-021618-F1-2763397&ET_CID=2763397&ET_RID=10705690&mi_u=10705690&mi_ecmp=20180216_WEBLETTER_Member_Control_Winner_339600_465104&encparam=DSbpmFDpjN54nJMGDfr2hTFBOcS7LNFfJGOFYJjEh%2fc%3d
President Trump unveiled his federal budget proposal Monday, which takes aim at many of the health and safety net programs that older Americans rely on. The plan sharply reduces funding for Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security Disability Insurance and food stamps.
..............................................................
Medicare The budget cuts $237 billion over 10 years.
Medicaid The spending proposal give states more flexibility. The plan includes:
- Repealing the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion.
Food Stamps The budget would fundamentally change the way the program works. The proposal includes:
- Slashing the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) by $213.5 billion over a decade.
Social Security The budget plan would cut $72 billion over 10 years in the Social Security Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income programs.
Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP)
The budget would end this program. The proposal includes:
- Eliminating the $3.4 billion annual funding.
https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2018/trump-budget-affects-seniors-fd.html?cmp=EMC-DSO-NLC-WBLTR---MCTRL-021618-F1-2763397&ET_CID=2763397&ET_RID=10705690&mi_u=10705690&mi_ecmp=20180216_WEBLETTER_Member_Control_Winner_339600_465104&encparam=DSbpmFDpjN54nJMGDfr2hTFBOcS7LNFfJGOFYJjEh%2fc%3d
Monday, March 26, 2018
OH, THE PAIN OF IT ALL
As a person that uses the pain-killing drug Tramadol for severe arthritis, I object to the idea that opioid drugs are bad if used at prescription strength. I can testify that Tramadol is not habit forming in that I don't crave it. All I know is that taking Tramadol lessens my pain in the lumbar region. In fact, I probably miss taking one of my three daily doses once or twice a week. But it is recommended that you don't stop it "cold turkey" but taper off. I have had problems at times getting my prescription filled, and I do go into a withdrawal in which I get unsteady on my feet.
But opioids aren’t only a problem. They can also be highly effective medications that make the difference between a functional and dysfunctional life.
...............................................................
In a new article in Reason magazine, Jacob Sullum makes this case. The federal crackdown on opioids has failed to solve the overdose problem — indeed, it has made it worse — while also saddling many people with chronic pain, Sullum writes. Among his points:
“Contrary to the impression left by most press coverage of the issue, opioid-related deaths do not usually involve drug-naive patients who accidentally get hooked while being treated for pain,” he writes. “Instead, they usually involve people with histories of substance abuse and psychological problems who use multiple drugs, not just opioids.”
So making it harder for people with chronic pain to get opioid prescriptions is a mistake, Sullum argues. “The truth is,” he writes, “that patients who take opioids for pain rarely become addicted.” A large majority of opioid deaths don’t come from prescribed medicine; they come from illegally produced substances like heroin.
Cuts in school funding are back for student's health and make one want to take opioids:
Not O.K. A reader pointed out that Kansas and Louisiana — the subject of my newsletter yesterday — aren’t the only states to have enacted self-defeating tax cuts. Oklahoma has too, leading to deep spending cuts that include a four-day school week in many communities, Emma Brown explained in a Washington Post piece. It’s hard to fathom that some communities in the 21st century United States can’t afford, or won’t pay for, a full school week.**
* https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/09/opinion/opioids-benefits.html
** https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/08/opinion/louisiana-tax-cuts.html?emc=edit_ty_20180309&nl=opinion-today&nlid=83449966&te=1
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/with-state-budget-in-crisis-many-
oklahoma-schools-hold-classes-four-days-a-week/2017/05/27/24f73288-3cb8-11e7-8854-21f359183e8c_story.html?utm_term=.365378cd44e8
But opioids aren’t only a problem. They can also be highly effective medications that make the difference between a functional and dysfunctional life.
...............................................................
In a new article in Reason magazine, Jacob Sullum makes this case. The federal crackdown on opioids has failed to solve the overdose problem — indeed, it has made it worse — while also saddling many people with chronic pain, Sullum writes. Among his points:
“Contrary to the impression left by most press coverage of the issue, opioid-related deaths do not usually involve drug-naive patients who accidentally get hooked while being treated for pain,” he writes. “Instead, they usually involve people with histories of substance abuse and psychological problems who use multiple drugs, not just opioids.”
So making it harder for people with chronic pain to get opioid prescriptions is a mistake, Sullum argues. “The truth is,” he writes, “that patients who take opioids for pain rarely become addicted.” A large majority of opioid deaths don’t come from prescribed medicine; they come from illegally produced substances like heroin.
Cuts in school funding are back for student's health and make one want to take opioids:
Not O.K. A reader pointed out that Kansas and Louisiana — the subject of my newsletter yesterday — aren’t the only states to have enacted self-defeating tax cuts. Oklahoma has too, leading to deep spending cuts that include a four-day school week in many communities, Emma Brown explained in a Washington Post piece. It’s hard to fathom that some communities in the 21st century United States can’t afford, or won’t pay for, a full school week.**
* https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/09/opinion/opioids-benefits.html
** https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/08/opinion/louisiana-tax-cuts.html?emc=edit_ty_20180309&nl=opinion-today&nlid=83449966&te=1
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/with-state-budget-in-crisis-many-
oklahoma-schools-hold-classes-four-days-a-week/2017/05/27/24f73288-3cb8-11e7-8854-21f359183e8c_story.html?utm_term=.365378cd44e8
Saturday, March 24, 2018
HOSPITAL CLOSURES
A decrease of services continue to decline in the U.S. Closures of rural hospitals are becoming a real problem, especially in the South. Following is a map of hospital closures and quotes from the references (in italics).
There has been a total of 83 rural hospital closures in the United States from January 2010 to January 2018, according to the North Carolina Rural Health Research Program, a group which tracks rural hospital closures across the country.
.............................................................................
The reasons for rural hospital closures vary for every community but can include decreased demand for inpatient services, consolidation in the health-care space, and a state's decision of whether to expand Medicaid, Mark Holmes, director of NC RHRP, told CNBC.
(Click on figure to enlarge. The map is by Tableau)
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/23/rural-hospital-closures-force-towns-to-take-action.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/23/heres-a-map-of-where-rural-hospital-closures-are-happening-in-the-us.html
There has been a total of 83 rural hospital closures in the United States from January 2010 to January 2018, according to the North Carolina Rural Health Research Program, a group which tracks rural hospital closures across the country.
.............................................................................
The reasons for rural hospital closures vary for every community but can include decreased demand for inpatient services, consolidation in the health-care space, and a state's decision of whether to expand Medicaid, Mark Holmes, director of NC RHRP, told CNBC.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/23/rural-hospital-closures-force-towns-to-take-action.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/23/heres-a-map-of-where-rural-hospital-closures-are-happening-in-the-us.html
Tuesday, March 20, 2018
SELF-DRIVING CARS
An Uber self-driving test car killed a woman at night who was crossing the street (https://www.barrons.com/articles/so-much-for-the-self-driving-car-1521487131?mod=djemb_dr_h)
You can see the problem with the Uber test car hitting the woman with the bicycle in the following video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cuo8eq9C3Ec
An interesting correction to the problem was made by Notehound at: http://boards.fool.com/otuber-video-of-hitting-pedestrian-33019570.aspx
The Uber car in this video obviously does not have its high-beam headlights on, even though it is not approaching a car coming in the opposite direction.
At 40 MPH, even a drowsy driver like the lady behind the wheel of this Uber car could have slammed on the brakes or veered around the pedestrian if the high beam headlights had been in use.
If self-driving cars cannot auto-dim and illuminate high-beam headlights and stop or steer around a slow-moving pedestrian at 40 MPH, there is no way they are safe enough to be used on any road where deer or dogs may be crossing the road at night.
Someone at Uber needs to be programming in "high beam/low beam headlight switches," as well as a simple "deer detection system" - or there will be plenty of collisions on a daily basis as soon as self-driving cars are turned loose on most of the country where animals roam.
It occurs to me that an additional problem we are facing is that anything new demands perfection even though it may be considerably better than the present. Now testing of self-driving cars is on hold in one company because one of their cars killed a pedestrian crossing a street outside the crossing lines. If we demand zero deaths from self-driving cars, we will never have them. But what if self-driving cars result in 50% fewer deaths (My guess is that even in their current state, they will do better than this). Wouldn't that be a worthwhile advance? Wouldn't a cut from 30,000 deaths per year to 15,000 be an advance?
It could be that there is a limit to technological advances that are tolerated.
On automated hamburger flipping, suppose that 1 out of a thousand hamburgers are not cooked enough to kill toxins so that someone dies. Will this sort of thing kill such automation?
I don't know the answer but there seems to be a trend that we go back to the Good Old Days of the 1950s. That is where our president would like to take us (revitalize steel when we produce more than 80 MILLION tons a year now and aluminum that was more expensive). His chief of staff likes that idea too of the age when women were treasured, though he himself just trashed a woman Representative. Back to the age of no woman being beaten by a drunk husband and an age that was ushered in by the Berlin blockade and contained the Hungarian uprising and Sputnik showed that the Soviets had the intercontinental missile.
I lived through that age and I was terrified. That romantic view of the 1950s never was.
You can see the problem with the Uber test car hitting the woman with the bicycle in the following video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cuo8eq9C3Ec
An interesting correction to the problem was made by Notehound at: http://boards.fool.com/otuber-video-of-hitting-pedestrian-33019570.aspx
The Uber car in this video obviously does not have its high-beam headlights on, even though it is not approaching a car coming in the opposite direction.
At 40 MPH, even a drowsy driver like the lady behind the wheel of this Uber car could have slammed on the brakes or veered around the pedestrian if the high beam headlights had been in use.
If self-driving cars cannot auto-dim and illuminate high-beam headlights and stop or steer around a slow-moving pedestrian at 40 MPH, there is no way they are safe enough to be used on any road where deer or dogs may be crossing the road at night.
Someone at Uber needs to be programming in "high beam/low beam headlight switches," as well as a simple "deer detection system" - or there will be plenty of collisions on a daily basis as soon as self-driving cars are turned loose on most of the country where animals roam.
It occurs to me that an additional problem we are facing is that anything new demands perfection even though it may be considerably better than the present. Now testing of self-driving cars is on hold in one company because one of their cars killed a pedestrian crossing a street outside the crossing lines. If we demand zero deaths from self-driving cars, we will never have them. But what if self-driving cars result in 50% fewer deaths (My guess is that even in their current state, they will do better than this). Wouldn't that be a worthwhile advance? Wouldn't a cut from 30,000 deaths per year to 15,000 be an advance?
It could be that there is a limit to technological advances that are tolerated.
On automated hamburger flipping, suppose that 1 out of a thousand hamburgers are not cooked enough to kill toxins so that someone dies. Will this sort of thing kill such automation?
I don't know the answer but there seems to be a trend that we go back to the Good Old Days of the 1950s. That is where our president would like to take us (revitalize steel when we produce more than 80 MILLION tons a year now and aluminum that was more expensive). His chief of staff likes that idea too of the age when women were treasured, though he himself just trashed a woman Representative. Back to the age of no woman being beaten by a drunk husband and an age that was ushered in by the Berlin blockade and contained the Hungarian uprising and Sputnik showed that the Soviets had the intercontinental missile.
I lived through that age and I was terrified. That romantic view of the 1950s never was.
Sunday, March 18, 2018
FIRED BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT - (Biographical)
Andrew McCabe and I share something in common in that we both were fired by the Federal government. True, mine was not as sad as his, but the upshot is the same.
McCabe was fired for "lack of candor" (not being truthful) in some of his answers to questions. The full report by the Inspector General has not been released. but I will say one thing, if they sig the Inspector General onto you, he (or she) will find something to be critical of.
I find it hard to believe that his firing will stand. For one thing, he was not given an opportunity to appeal the decision. For another, it was done after work hours on a Friday night with no scheduled work hours on the weekend. I'm sure he had already signed his retirement papers by close of business on Friday if not before. thirdly, I'm sure there was too much Presidential interference in the matter. Whatever he did, it should have been enough punishment to force him into an early retirement. To also fire him is double punishment. It is said that the following Monday he would only turn 50, still a man in mid-career.
In my case, the firing used a polite name of Reduction-In-Force where I was one of more than 500 let go or forced into retirement by the Geologic Division of the U.S. Geological Survey in 1995 as part of Vice President Gore's Reinventing Government effort.* A nice touch was that we were told to vacate the building by 4:30 PM on a Friday the 13th. But someone remembered that our contract was to go through Sunday (end of a pay period) so the pressure was off to leave by 4:30 PM. Management then could not get anyone to tell us to leave (something they resisted in the first place) even on the following Monday.
In the Federal Government, researchers have no Civil Service protection because they pretend you can only do the project you are currently on (no matter what projects you have done in the past). It is crazy, but the U.S. Geological Survey used this to decrease their staff when pressed by over 500 mostly researchers (including me).
I was on a five-year project to evaluate the mineral resources of the Upper Midwest that I was asked to do. and where I had no expertise on I was in the fourth year of this project. I asked to be able to finish the project in another year and then I would retire, but they were desperate so they scrubbed the project, said they didn't need it after all. My evaluations were Excellent in 4 of the previous 5 years.
It wasn't very long when I realized that what happened was just as well. They did let me use facilities (a desk, file cabinets, and computers) to finish research projects; however, by law, I couldn't finish the project they said they didn't need. My rule was, if it was something I wanted to do, it was free. If it was something they wanted me to do, they had to pay me. Everything I did was free as I was finishing incomplete studies. After five years of this, I moved on.
Why did I have unfinished research projects to work on? It was because a number of times my current research was interrupted by some project the organization needed. Some examples were that I was loaned out to NASA to help set up the Lunar Sample Program of Apollo. I supervise setting up a geology exhibits trailer to tour minority colleges to show opportunities in the Earth sciences. Another was I was loaned out the National Park Service to help set up stone test sites for acid rain studies. The National Park Service also wanted me to examine Memorials and Monuments for pollution damage. When I said that I didn't have experience in this kind of study, they said, "You are a scientist aren't you?" How could I refuse? Some others were administrative details. I do not regret doing any of these things, but I found I was glad it was over. Being a Federal Civil Servant is being a political football.
When I moved from northern Virginia to North Carolina, I still had two studies to write up, but the fire went out of me, and they were never finished. There is a lot of scut work in putting a manuscript together.
* Included in the firing were several electricians and electronics specialists who had military service and had to be rehired.
McCabe was fired for "lack of candor" (not being truthful) in some of his answers to questions. The full report by the Inspector General has not been released. but I will say one thing, if they sig the Inspector General onto you, he (or she) will find something to be critical of.
I find it hard to believe that his firing will stand. For one thing, he was not given an opportunity to appeal the decision. For another, it was done after work hours on a Friday night with no scheduled work hours on the weekend. I'm sure he had already signed his retirement papers by close of business on Friday if not before. thirdly, I'm sure there was too much Presidential interference in the matter. Whatever he did, it should have been enough punishment to force him into an early retirement. To also fire him is double punishment. It is said that the following Monday he would only turn 50, still a man in mid-career.
In my case, the firing used a polite name of Reduction-In-Force where I was one of more than 500 let go or forced into retirement by the Geologic Division of the U.S. Geological Survey in 1995 as part of Vice President Gore's Reinventing Government effort.* A nice touch was that we were told to vacate the building by 4:30 PM on a Friday the 13th. But someone remembered that our contract was to go through Sunday (end of a pay period) so the pressure was off to leave by 4:30 PM. Management then could not get anyone to tell us to leave (something they resisted in the first place) even on the following Monday.
In the Federal Government, researchers have no Civil Service protection because they pretend you can only do the project you are currently on (no matter what projects you have done in the past). It is crazy, but the U.S. Geological Survey used this to decrease their staff when pressed by over 500 mostly researchers (including me).
I was on a five-year project to evaluate the mineral resources of the Upper Midwest that I was asked to do. and where I had no expertise on I was in the fourth year of this project. I asked to be able to finish the project in another year and then I would retire, but they were desperate so they scrubbed the project, said they didn't need it after all. My evaluations were Excellent in 4 of the previous 5 years.
It wasn't very long when I realized that what happened was just as well. They did let me use facilities (a desk, file cabinets, and computers) to finish research projects; however, by law, I couldn't finish the project they said they didn't need. My rule was, if it was something I wanted to do, it was free. If it was something they wanted me to do, they had to pay me. Everything I did was free as I was finishing incomplete studies. After five years of this, I moved on.
Why did I have unfinished research projects to work on? It was because a number of times my current research was interrupted by some project the organization needed. Some examples were that I was loaned out to NASA to help set up the Lunar Sample Program of Apollo. I supervise setting up a geology exhibits trailer to tour minority colleges to show opportunities in the Earth sciences. Another was I was loaned out the National Park Service to help set up stone test sites for acid rain studies. The National Park Service also wanted me to examine Memorials and Monuments for pollution damage. When I said that I didn't have experience in this kind of study, they said, "You are a scientist aren't you?" How could I refuse? Some others were administrative details. I do not regret doing any of these things, but I found I was glad it was over. Being a Federal Civil Servant is being a political football.
When I moved from northern Virginia to North Carolina, I still had two studies to write up, but the fire went out of me, and they were never finished. There is a lot of scut work in putting a manuscript together.
* Included in the firing were several electricians and electronics specialists who had military service and had to be rehired.
Saturday, March 17, 2018
SOME HISTORY OF SCHOOL SHOOTINGS
I have written a piece on Probabilities And School Shootings: http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/02/probabilities-and-school-shootings-2013.html
Though I hope the school children have success in their pleadings for action on gun control, Some comfort can be taken thinking about the probability of school shootings. In my day, I don't recall ever hearing about a school shooting so I looked up history of school shootings..
The following I obtained from the records at the List Of School Shootings in Wikipedia: :https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_school_shootings_in_the_United_States
In my days at school, there were some shooting but they seemed to be aimed at individual principlals, teachers and other staff.
In my days at school, there were some shooting but they seemed to be aimed at individual principlals, teachers and other staff.
The modern age of mass murder in schools and similar gatherings was shooting at the University of Texas in 1966, a massacre. where 17 were killed, 31 injured. This was followed in 1968 by the South Carolina State University massacre shooting where 3 were killed and 27 injured.. (I don't remember this SC incident but do recall the Texas shooting)
The next big one was at Jackson State, Jackson, Mississippi. in 1970 where 2 were killed and 12 injured. I'll skip some incidents, but in 1989, 6 were killed and 32 injured in the Stockton, California, schoolyard killing.
Several mass shootings occcurred in 1998 such as the West Side Middle School shooting in Arkansas where 5 were killed and 10 wounded. Follwoing was the shooting at the Thurston, High School, in Springfield, Oregon, 4 were killed and 23 wounded. This preceded the 1999 Columbine High School, Littleton, Colorado shooting 15 killed and 21 injured.
In 2007 there was, of course, the famous shooting at Virginia Tech, virginia, where 33 were kiled and 23 injured. Less well known was the 2008 shooting at Northern Illinois University, Dekalb, Illinois with 6 killed and 21 injured.
A shooting that received a lot of note was at Newtown, CT, at Snadyhook elementary School where 28 were killed and 2 injured. Another mass shooting was at Umpqua Community College where 10 died and 9 were injured.
The pace may be picking up.
Already some shootings are not getting much notice such as the Novembeer 2017 shooting at Rancho Tehama Elementary School and environs where 6 were killed and 18 injured in followed by Marshall County High School shooting in January 2018 with 2 killed and 18 wounded.
Then in February of 2018, at Parkland, Florida, Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, 17 were killed and 14 injured leading to mass demonstrations for some gun control. A bill has passed the legislatures in Florida and the governor has signed it. The NRA, however, is suing Florida for raising the age of buying long guns to 21, the same age as for pistoles I can't see how the NRA can win this suit but we will see.
In between these mass shootings, there was a sprinkling of shooting where 1 person was killed and/or injured, etc..
In between these mass shootings, there was a sprinkling of shooting where 1 person was killed and/or injured, etc..
Friday, March 16, 2018
REX TILLERSON, SECRETARY OF STATE - R.I.P.
Last October, I published a piece on Secretary Of State Rex Tillerson (https://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/10/rex-tillerson.html) in which I wrote:
On the surface of it, it seemed like a good idea to get the recently retired (age 65) both Chairman and CEO of Exxon Mobile (stock symbol XOM)* to be Secretary Of State (It has become common for one person to hold both positions.). It is the largest U.S. oil company with a worldwide span so he had a lot of experience of dealing with foreign leaders and had, at least met, many of them.
But what they had not taken into account was that Tillerson retired from being equivalent to a Head Of State whereas the President was maybe wealthier but was head of a "Mom and Pop" real estate company (with no Mom). In more graphic terms, it was like having a General work for a Sargent. It wasn't preordained to failure, but it is tricky. It got off on the wrong foot Early on there was trouble when Tillerson was not allowed to pick his own Deputy, a position I assume is currently being held by an Acting-Deputy Civil Servant.
Well, the Sargent has fired the General!
On the surface of it, it seemed like a good idea to get the recently retired (age 65) both Chairman and CEO of Exxon Mobile (stock symbol XOM)* to be Secretary Of State (It has become common for one person to hold both positions.). It is the largest U.S. oil company with a worldwide span so he had a lot of experience of dealing with foreign leaders and had, at least met, many of them.
But what they had not taken into account was that Tillerson retired from being equivalent to a Head Of State whereas the President was maybe wealthier but was head of a "Mom and Pop" real estate company (with no Mom). In more graphic terms, it was like having a General work for a Sargent. It wasn't preordained to failure, but it is tricky. It got off on the wrong foot Early on there was trouble when Tillerson was not allowed to pick his own Deputy, a position I assume is currently being held by an Acting-Deputy Civil Servant.
Wednesday, March 14, 2018
U.S. TRADE DEFICITS AND TARIFFS
For the first half of my long life, the U.S. carried a trade surplus, but starting in 1976 our balance of trade turned to deficits that have continued through the present.*
The WSJ published a figure showing our tade deficits beginning with 1985 (see figure)
(click on figure to enlarge)
I have long wondered whether continuing such deficits will be bad fr America. Thus we have made much use of directed tariffs such as 20% on soft wood lumber from Canada and, as of 2016, some types of steel from China.
The problem with tariffs, of course, is that they drive up the prices of the goods being tariffed so that the price added to goods by the tariff are actually paid by the American consumer.
The duty on soft wood lumber from Canada has contibuted to a cost increase of $8,500 to a home. In addition to the duty, other factors contributing to the cost rise are forest fires in the West and transportation difficulties.***
The Obama administration has been discussing steel production with China, which pledged to trim output by up to 150 million metric tons over five years. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew this week in Beijing the country would press ahead with economic overhauls to shrink the steel industry.****
Directed tariffs, however, don't seem to raise too much alarm; however, President Trump is instituting a 25% tariff on imported steel and 10% on imported aluminum, initially across the board that has created much alarm and affected the stock markets as that could create a trade war with the possibility of leading to a depression such as occurred during the 1930s (the Great Depression).
The duty may not apply to our companian NAFTA countires of Canada (our largest foreign supplier of both steel and aluminum) and Mexico. Negotiations with couther countries are underway. So these tariffs are still in a state of flux as to whom they will apply.
* https://www.thoughtco.com/history-of-the-us-balance-of-trade-1147456
** https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2018/03/08/trump-readies-tariffs-u-s-trade-gap-widens-who-will-replace-gary-cohn/
*** https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-lumber-in-short-supply-record-wood-costs-are-set-to-juice-home-prices-1519916401
**** https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-imposes-266-duty-on-some-chinese-steel-imports-1456878180
The WSJ published a figure showing our tade deficits beginning with 1985 (see figure)
I have long wondered whether continuing such deficits will be bad fr America. Thus we have made much use of directed tariffs such as 20% on soft wood lumber from Canada and, as of 2016, some types of steel from China.
The problem with tariffs, of course, is that they drive up the prices of the goods being tariffed so that the price added to goods by the tariff are actually paid by the American consumer.
The duty on soft wood lumber from Canada has contibuted to a cost increase of $8,500 to a home. In addition to the duty, other factors contributing to the cost rise are forest fires in the West and transportation difficulties.***
Analysts say trade protection will prop up prices, but can’t be expected to save beleaguered companies or improve market demand, especially in the oil and gas segment.
“There’ll be a short-term benefit,“ said John Packard of Steel Market Update. ”However, in the long run, the U.S. mills are always going to want more tariffs, and it’s questionable how much more [protection] they can get." The U.S. already has anti-dumping duties in place on 19 categories of Chinese steel. And the U.S. needs some imports because U.S. demand—regularly over 110 million tons—is far higher than the U.S.’s annual production of around 80 million tons.
Although China is only the seventh biggest exporter of steel to the U.S., behind Canada, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, South Korea and Turkey, Chinese steelmakers have received the most attention because they have the ability to disrupt the U.S. market. Their prices tend to be 20% to 50% lower than anybody else’s, say steel traders****
........................................................................The Obama administration has been discussing steel production with China, which pledged to trim output by up to 150 million metric tons over five years. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew this week in Beijing the country would press ahead with economic overhauls to shrink the steel industry.****
Directed tariffs, however, don't seem to raise too much alarm; however, President Trump is instituting a 25% tariff on imported steel and 10% on imported aluminum, initially across the board that has created much alarm and affected the stock markets as that could create a trade war with the possibility of leading to a depression such as occurred during the 1930s (the Great Depression).
The duty may not apply to our companian NAFTA countires of Canada (our largest foreign supplier of both steel and aluminum) and Mexico. Negotiations with couther countries are underway. So these tariffs are still in a state of flux as to whom they will apply.
* https://www.thoughtco.com/history-of-the-us-balance-of-trade-1147456
** https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2018/03/08/trump-readies-tariffs-u-s-trade-gap-widens-who-will-replace-gary-cohn/
*** https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-lumber-in-short-supply-record-wood-costs-are-set-to-juice-home-prices-1519916401
**** https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-imposes-266-duty-on-some-chinese-steel-imports-1456878180
Saturday, March 10, 2018
BULL MARKETS: STARTING IN 2009 IS THE LONGEST FOR THE DJIA
An article on CNBC gives some great information on bull runs in the stock market.* We are in the longest bull run for stocks on the DJIA and 2nd longest run on the SandP 500 (only the period of October 11, 1990 to March 24, 2000 was longer) .
(click on table to enlarge)
(click on table to enlarge)
The growth of the three main stock market indices is shown on a figure from a paper by Akane Otani.** The rise in the indices contains the two terms as president of Barack Obama and continues under the presidency of Donald Trump. After a dip in early 2016, the markets have surged.
(click on table to enlarge)
The longest Bull run for the SandP 500 comprised the one term as president of George H.W. Bush and the two terms of Bill Clinton.
* https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/08/the-bull-market-just-turned-9-years-old-heres-how-the-stock-surge-compares-with-past-runs.html
** http://ereader.wsj.net/ WSJ ,March 8, 2018 in Markets, p B12)
The growth of the three main stock market indices is shown on a figure from a paper by Akane Otani.** The rise in the indices contains the two terms as president of Barack Obama and continues under the presidency of Donald Trump. After a dip in early 2016, the markets have surged.
The longest Bull run for the SandP 500 comprised the one term as president of George H.W. Bush and the two terms of Bill Clinton.
* https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/08/the-bull-market-just-turned-9-years-old-heres-how-the-stock-surge-compares-with-past-runs.html
** http://ereader.wsj.net/ WSJ ,March 8, 2018 in Markets, p B12)
Friday, March 9, 2018
BACK TO THE GOOD OLD DAYS - 1950s
President Trump and his Chief of Staff Gen. John Kelly seem to play the same tune in at least one respect - both want to go back to the 1950s.
Gen Kelly carries a romantic idea about the period - the days when women were treasured. I guess no drunk husbands beat up their wives then? And of course the treasured didn't include the broad area of job opportunities that women posses today.
President Trump wants to go back to the 1950s when there was King Coal and U.S. Steel was the dominant U.S. corporation.
I have a different view of the 1950s. For me it was a decade of terror, introduced by the Berlin Blockade and contained Hungarian Uprising (1958) where I thought there would be a nuclear war for sure, if not by design, then by accident. Then there was Sputnik. http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/04/you-couldnt-have-been-on-that-plane.htm
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/03/snake-bit_8.html
STEEL
Back then, when U.S. Steel raised their prices, there was a ripple of price rises throughout the economy. Big Steel was the # 1 most valuable company as America entered the 20th Century, formed in 1901. That they still exist is quite an accomplishment. For example the #2 company was U.S. Leather, long gone. Though U.S. Steel is not the dominant power it once was, it is still of significance and their common stock even pays a dividend. It was the world's first billion dollar company though today it ranks as #24 among the world's largest steel companies and trails Nucor as the largest American producer.*
Though American companies produced 115 million tons of steel in 1967, they still produced 81.6 million tons in 2017 as the 4th largest steel producing country. China produces about 10 times the U.S. production supplying about 46% of the world's steel production.*
About 16.5% of our steel imports come from Canada with another 14.6% from the European Union and 13.5% from Brazil. followed by 9.2% from Mexico. China is a minor supplier at 2.2%, ranking 11th, although at one time it was dumping lots of surplus steel on the U.S. market.
Most pipes and tubes are imported as the American steel companies do not manufacture much of these products. with U.S.. Steel making some. The largest imports come from South Korea, followed by Canada, Mexico, and India.*
ALUMINUM
Alcoa has a longer history than even U.S. Steel harking back to 1887.** Essentially, all aluminum ore (called bauxite) is imported to the U.S. and reduced by an electrical process. In addition, Alcoa recycles aluminum beverage cans. Alcoa merged with Reynold's Aluminum in 2000. In 2016, Alcoa spun off a fabrication company, Arconic.
The largest aluminum producing country is, again, China supplying about 53.5% of the world production. The U.S. ranked 9th in aluminum production in 23017.*
The largest aluminum imports come from Canada (about 63%). Following Canada are Russia, United Arab Emirates, and China.*** Five aluminum plants remain in the U.S. and Century Aluminum is the only one making aluminum of the quality used in fighter jets.***
The aerospace industry has been one of the most vocal about what could go wrong if Trump imposes a blanket tariff on all aluminum imports. The United States is a top exporter of airplanes and airplane parts. It's one of the key areas in which America runs a trade surplus, but it's also an industry that uses a lot of aluminum.***
.................................................................
Ann Wilson, senior vice president of government affairs at the Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association
She says some aluminum products used in cars aren't available in the United States and must be imported, but she argues those imports support more than 870,000 American auto parts jobs since workers modify or assemble those products into larger car parts.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Steel
https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-us.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_steel_production
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/key-facts-us-steel-aluminum-industries/story?id=53616380
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcoa
*** https://www.voanews.com/a/top-us-import-sources-steel-aluminum/4277212.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/03/01/foreign-suppliers-are-flooding-the-u-s-aluminum-market/?utm_term=.8a18853dbaa7
Gen Kelly carries a romantic idea about the period - the days when women were treasured. I guess no drunk husbands beat up their wives then? And of course the treasured didn't include the broad area of job opportunities that women posses today.
President Trump wants to go back to the 1950s when there was King Coal and U.S. Steel was the dominant U.S. corporation.
I have a different view of the 1950s. For me it was a decade of terror, introduced by the Berlin Blockade and contained Hungarian Uprising (1958) where I thought there would be a nuclear war for sure, if not by design, then by accident. Then there was Sputnik. http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/04/you-couldnt-have-been-on-that-plane.htm
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/03/snake-bit_8.html
STEEL
Back then, when U.S. Steel raised their prices, there was a ripple of price rises throughout the economy. Big Steel was the # 1 most valuable company as America entered the 20th Century, formed in 1901. That they still exist is quite an accomplishment. For example the #2 company was U.S. Leather, long gone. Though U.S. Steel is not the dominant power it once was, it is still of significance and their common stock even pays a dividend. It was the world's first billion dollar company though today it ranks as #24 among the world's largest steel companies and trails Nucor as the largest American producer.*
Though American companies produced 115 million tons of steel in 1967, they still produced 81.6 million tons in 2017 as the 4th largest steel producing country. China produces about 10 times the U.S. production supplying about 46% of the world's steel production.*
About 16.5% of our steel imports come from Canada with another 14.6% from the European Union and 13.5% from Brazil. followed by 9.2% from Mexico. China is a minor supplier at 2.2%, ranking 11th, although at one time it was dumping lots of surplus steel on the U.S. market.
Most pipes and tubes are imported as the American steel companies do not manufacture much of these products. with U.S.. Steel making some. The largest imports come from South Korea, followed by Canada, Mexico, and India.*
ALUMINUM
Alcoa has a longer history than even U.S. Steel harking back to 1887.** Essentially, all aluminum ore (called bauxite) is imported to the U.S. and reduced by an electrical process. In addition, Alcoa recycles aluminum beverage cans. Alcoa merged with Reynold's Aluminum in 2000. In 2016, Alcoa spun off a fabrication company, Arconic.
The largest aluminum producing country is, again, China supplying about 53.5% of the world production. The U.S. ranked 9th in aluminum production in 23017.*
The largest aluminum imports come from Canada (about 63%). Following Canada are Russia, United Arab Emirates, and China.*** Five aluminum plants remain in the U.S. and Century Aluminum is the only one making aluminum of the quality used in fighter jets.***
The aerospace industry has been one of the most vocal about what could go wrong if Trump imposes a blanket tariff on all aluminum imports. The United States is a top exporter of airplanes and airplane parts. It's one of the key areas in which America runs a trade surplus, but it's also an industry that uses a lot of aluminum.***
.................................................................
Ann Wilson, senior vice president of government affairs at the Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association
She says some aluminum products used in cars aren't available in the United States and must be imported, but she argues those imports support more than 870,000 American auto parts jobs since workers modify or assemble those products into larger car parts.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Steel
https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-us.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_steel_production
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/key-facts-us-steel-aluminum-industries/story?id=53616380
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcoa
*** https://www.voanews.com/a/top-us-import-sources-steel-aluminum/4277212.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/03/01/foreign-suppliers-are-flooding-the-u-s-aluminum-market/?utm_term=.8a18853dbaa7
Thursday, March 8, 2018
SNAKE BIT (Republished)
(Something is wrong with the original post and it comes on with a DIGG reference, Thus I am publishing it again.)
President Obama must feel snake bit. First he opens up drilling on the Atlantic shelf of the U.S. and then BP screws it up by creating a disaster in the Gulf. Then he seems to seriously consider enlarging the U.S. nuclear power capabilities, and nature screws it up by the Japan super earthquake of 2011.
I think that it was criticism of our president for not taking sides earlier in the Egypt rebellion that got him to say that Qaddafi must go. And the Tunisian uprising was successful also. And now it looks like Qaddafi may stay. As George Will has said, President Obama is doing as well as can be expected in a situation over which he has no control. Still I have this peculiar feeling that "Here We Go Again." I hope it is wrong.
Tuesday, March 6, 2018
TRUMP'S "NIXON GOES TO CHINA" MOMENT?
President Trump looked as if he might have a moment for a "Nixon Goes To China," that is, for an accomplishment you wouldn't expect. Of course, he backed off of it, just as he backed off the DACA commitment.
Trump's moment was to outlaw new sales of semi-automatic weapons and bumper stocks as well as authorize universal background checks for all gun sales and gifts. Of course, owners of the 2.3 million semiautomatic weapons would be grandfathered in, but the Federal government could offer to buy them back as was done in Australia. And if your son (or daughter) can't pass a background check, should they really have a gun?
Well, one can dream, can't one?
Trump's moment was to outlaw new sales of semi-automatic weapons and bumper stocks as well as authorize universal background checks for all gun sales and gifts. Of course, owners of the 2.3 million semiautomatic weapons would be grandfathered in, but the Federal government could offer to buy them back as was done in Australia. And if your son (or daughter) can't pass a background check, should they really have a gun?
Well, one can dream, can't one?
Sunday, March 4, 2018
TARIFFS? AND HOW WILL THE TAX REDUCTION MONEY BE USED?
On March 1, President Trump said he was going to slap a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum.
In 2017, total U.S. trade with foreign countries was $5.2 trillion. That was $2.3 trillion in exports and $2.9 trillion in imports of both goods and services. The United States was the world's third-largest exporter, after China and the European Union. It was the world's second-largest largest importer after the EU. * Russia comes in at number 24 on the list of countries by imports.
In 2017, the U.S. had a trade deficit of $502 billion.
It seemed to be China that bothers President Trump; however, the top 10 countries from which we import steel in 2017 does not include China but does include many of our allies (see figure):* This situation is in flux and keeps changing as President Trump does seem to be using the tariffs as a bargaining tool in NAFTA negotiations with Canada and Mexico to decrease their large steel exports to the U.S.
(Click on figure to enlarge)
There is some confusion in the figures, however, because a report in 2016 said that China was the 7th largest exporter of steel to America. The problem arises because the Chinese were dumping steel just a few years ago. Then President Obama had negotiations with China on the promise that China will work toward cutting overproduction of steel. Chinese cuts in steel production were promised again in 2017.* As a result, now China is a minor exporter of steel to the U.S. but promised to cut steel production even further in March of 2018.
The largest items in various categories of Exports and Imports are listed below. As for aluminum, 63% of imports come from Canada. About 99% of aluminum ore (bauxite) must be imported for American smelters. Canada is also the largest exporter of steel to the U.S., about 36%, but it is also the largest importer. Exports from America to Canada are about 50% of America's steel exports.
Among the largest U.S. exports 2017 are (in $U.S. billions):**
Capital and Consumer Goods
Automobiles:10 percent of all exported goods ($158)
Commercial aircraft ($121).
Chemicals ($77)
Petroleum products ($71)
Pharmaceuticals ($51)
Services
Travel services ($291)
Computer and business services ($191)
Royalties and license fees ($124).
Private services, such as financial services, added $121 billion.
Among the largest imports are (in $U.S. billions):**
Services
Travel and transportation ($236)
business and computer ($141)
Capital Goods
Computers ($128)
Telecommunications equipment, incl. semiconductors ($128).
Cell phone and TV ($121)
Consumer goods
Apparel and footwear ($123)
Pharmaceutical imports ($110)
Industrial Machinery And Equipment
Oil and petroleum products ($183)
Automobile
Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($359 billion)
Food, feeds and beverages ($138 billion).
The Labor Department’s producer-price index for goods used in construction industries— which include asphalt, concrete, diesel fuel and other materials—was up 4.9% year-to-year in January. In November, prices were up 5.6% on an annual basis, the steepest increase in seven years. A separate producer price index for steel-mill products was up 7.8% in 2017, according to the Labor Department.**
These price increases were already making any infrastructure program more expensive. Increasing the price of steel 25% and aluminum 10% will further add to the cost of any infrastructure program.
...........................................................
The housing industry, meanwhile, is grappling with tariffs on softwood lumber imposed last year that could boost home prices this year. Lumber futures have hit records on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The National Association of Home Builders estimates the tariffs will result in about 9,400 construction jobs lost while raising the price of the average single-family home by $1,360.**
Tax Reduction Act
I have warned that the results of the Tax Reduction Act may be different from what is expected because it all depends on how much stock buyback and debt payoffs by companies and taxpayers occurs.*** It is complicated because when a company buys back stock, the company of the person that has sold the stock to them gets the money and then what do they do with it? Paying down debt can be something else, but if a company or a person pays off debt, that money cannot be used for something profitable because it is gone. True the receiver of the debt paydown then has some money to do something with and, if they reloan it, perhaps something beneficial will come out of it. We'll just have to see how all this works out. And the proposed tariffs complicate the picture even further.
How spending as a result of the Tax Reduction Act is shaping up.
Share buybacks announced by large U.S. companies have exceeded $200 billion in the past three months, more than double the prior year, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data for S&P 500 companies.****
(click on figure to enlarge)
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_imports
https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-us.pdf
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-03/05/c_136104886.htm
https://www.ft.com/content/e62e3722-fee2-11e5-ac98-3c15a1aa2e62
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/china-sets-2018-growth-target-65-percent-53509631
** https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-imports-and-exports-components-and-statistics-3306270
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-proposed-tariffs-risk-hobbling-infrastructure-plan-1520191916?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/12/dont-be-fooled-by-congressional-tax-plan.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/02/new-tax-plan-and-corporate-taxes.html
**** https://www.wsj.com/articles/boom-in-share-buybacks-renews-question-of-who-wins-from-tax-cuts-1519900200?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=4
In 2017, total U.S. trade with foreign countries was $5.2 trillion. That was $2.3 trillion in exports and $2.9 trillion in imports of both goods and services. The United States was the world's third-largest exporter, after China and the European Union. It was the world's second-largest largest importer after the EU. * Russia comes in at number 24 on the list of countries by imports.
In 2017, the U.S. had a trade deficit of $502 billion.
It seemed to be China that bothers President Trump; however, the top 10 countries from which we import steel in 2017 does not include China but does include many of our allies (see figure):* This situation is in flux and keeps changing as President Trump does seem to be using the tariffs as a bargaining tool in NAFTA negotiations with Canada and Mexico to decrease their large steel exports to the U.S.
There is some confusion in the figures, however, because a report in 2016 said that China was the 7th largest exporter of steel to America. The problem arises because the Chinese were dumping steel just a few years ago. Then President Obama had negotiations with China on the promise that China will work toward cutting overproduction of steel. Chinese cuts in steel production were promised again in 2017.* As a result, now China is a minor exporter of steel to the U.S. but promised to cut steel production even further in March of 2018.
The largest items in various categories of Exports and Imports are listed below. As for aluminum, 63% of imports come from Canada. About 99% of aluminum ore (bauxite) must be imported for American smelters. Canada is also the largest exporter of steel to the U.S., about 36%, but it is also the largest importer. Exports from America to Canada are about 50% of America's steel exports.
Among the largest U.S. exports 2017 are (in $U.S. billions):**
Capital and Consumer Goods
Automobiles:10 percent of all exported goods ($158)
Commercial aircraft ($121).
Chemicals ($77)
Petroleum products ($71)
Pharmaceuticals ($51)
Services
Travel services ($291)
Computer and business services ($191)
Royalties and license fees ($124).
Private services, such as financial services, added $121 billion.
Among the largest imports are (in $U.S. billions):**
Services
Travel and transportation ($236)
business and computer ($141)
Capital Goods
Computers ($128)
Telecommunications equipment, incl. semiconductors ($128).
Cell phone and TV ($121)
Consumer goods
Apparel and footwear ($123)
Pharmaceutical imports ($110)
Industrial Machinery And Equipment
Oil and petroleum products ($183)
Automobile
Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($359 billion)
Food, feeds and beverages ($138 billion).
The Labor Department’s producer-price index for goods used in construction industries— which include asphalt, concrete, diesel fuel and other materials—was up 4.9% year-to-year in January. In November, prices were up 5.6% on an annual basis, the steepest increase in seven years. A separate producer price index for steel-mill products was up 7.8% in 2017, according to the Labor Department.**
These price increases were already making any infrastructure program more expensive. Increasing the price of steel 25% and aluminum 10% will further add to the cost of any infrastructure program.
...........................................................
The housing industry, meanwhile, is grappling with tariffs on softwood lumber imposed last year that could boost home prices this year. Lumber futures have hit records on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The National Association of Home Builders estimates the tariffs will result in about 9,400 construction jobs lost while raising the price of the average single-family home by $1,360.**
Tax Reduction Act
I have warned that the results of the Tax Reduction Act may be different from what is expected because it all depends on how much stock buyback and debt payoffs by companies and taxpayers occurs.*** It is complicated because when a company buys back stock, the company of the person that has sold the stock to them gets the money and then what do they do with it? Paying down debt can be something else, but if a company or a person pays off debt, that money cannot be used for something profitable because it is gone. True the receiver of the debt paydown then has some money to do something with and, if they reloan it, perhaps something beneficial will come out of it. We'll just have to see how all this works out. And the proposed tariffs complicate the picture even further.
How spending as a result of the Tax Reduction Act is shaping up.
Share buybacks announced by large U.S. companies have exceeded $200 billion in the past three months, more than double the prior year, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data for S&P 500 companies.****
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_imports
https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-us.pdf
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-03/05/c_136104886.htm
https://www.ft.com/content/e62e3722-fee2-11e5-ac98-3c15a1aa2e62
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/china-sets-2018-growth-target-65-percent-53509631
** https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-imports-and-exports-components-and-statistics-3306270
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-proposed-tariffs-risk-hobbling-infrastructure-plan-1520191916?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/12/dont-be-fooled-by-congressional-tax-plan.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/02/new-tax-plan-and-corporate-taxes.html
**** https://www.wsj.com/articles/boom-in-share-buybacks-renews-question-of-who-wins-from-tax-cuts-1519900200?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=4
Friday, March 2, 2018
HOW MANY TIMES CAN YOU BULLY FRIENDS BEFORE YOU LOSE THEM?
I suppose it depends on the person. Well, President Trump continues to bully his Attorney General. I think he has gone too far, and I suspect that the Attorney General isn't going to give him any breaks.
What a choice to make between Trump and Sessions! With sarcasm, I say that it couldn't have happened to two nicer guys. They deserve each other, but I don't blame Sessions for "losing the faith." People are begging Sessions to hang in there because they are worried that his replacement would be even worse.
Thursday, March 1, 2018
HILLARY'S PROBLEM
After an election, the loser gets blasted for "running a terrible " campaign. It happened to Romney and now it is Hillery's turn. but I think her problem is not that she ran a terrible campaign but that she ran a campaign too good for the time.
The media keeps saying that no one knows what the Democratic Party stands for, but it is very simple. The Democratic Party stands for Fairness and Justice For All. The Republican Party may claim they are for Fairness and Justice except they can't add the For All.
Thus Democrats and Hillary have supported the cases of women, minorities and the LGBT community. This can be tricky as some fell she has not done enough for them. A rebel group of young Latinos seems to like Hillary's views but they just don't trust her (http://www.latinorebels.com/2016/05/11/why-young-people-of-color-are-rejecting-hillary-clinton/).
I hope they like what they got. If it comes to who I would pick between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on the trust issue, I know who I would pick. Hint: the name has a W and a C in it.
Hillary tried to adopt where she could, e.g. came out against TPP, but couldn't adopt enough for her principles. Besides, people felt she was lying about her opposition to TPP. I ho[e she was.
The news media didn't like her and actually published more negative things about her and fewer positive things about her than for Donald Trump than all other major candidates (https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2016/04/15/media-analysis-shows-hillary-clinton-has-received-most-negative-stories-least-positive-stories-all/209945). The news media typed her and once you get typed by the media, it is almost impossible to change it.
Consider: Democrats are FOR an increase in the minimum wage that has remained static since 2009 Republicans are AGAINST it, and some would like to get rid of it. We are actually living in a Republican "Heaven" age of low wages, and as a result, companies are making a lot of money passing little or none of it on to their workers. German automobile companies think of the American South as a third world country and are happy to make cars there, even for export. The BMW Spartanburg, South Carolina, plant is the biggest exporter of cars from America.* Honda assembles more cars in America than it does in Japan.*
Consider: Hillery has had a lifelong interest in the betterment of children since graduating from law school. Her first job was with the Children's Defense Fund. She even published a book, "It Takes A Village To Raise A child." As a Senator, she worked hard to get a bill passed (Children's Health Insurance Program or CHIP) to provide health care for 8 million needy children.** She was a co-sponsor of the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, the first act President Obama signed into law.
Consider: "White Americans need to do a better job at listening when African Americans talk about the seen and unseen barriers they face every day," she said. "Practice humility rather than assume that our experience is everyone’s experiences."***
Hillary has had a long association with Hispanics going as far back as 1972.
Garry Mauro, one of her first contacts in Texas, told the San Antonio Express in 2008 that back then she had a "cultural affinity with Hispanics," asking questions and listening to their concerns, a dynamic that would be on display again, more than three decades later in Nevada, as she tried to woo an influential Latino activist.***
Consider: And we will defend, we will defend all our rights. Civil rights, human rights and voting rights. Women’s rights and workers’ rights. LGBT rights and the rights of people with disabilities.”
Hillary's speeches seem to have been continually criticized by the press. I heard a number of her speeches, and they seemed very good to me. At first, it was that she was too serious, so she smiled more and sometimes even gave her famous belly laugh.
A big issue became Hillary's marriage to Bill Clinton. Some women, mostly younger, blame her for not getting divorced over her husband's infidelities. Whatever happened to "Until death do us part." in the marriage ceremony? There are lots of wives who put up with their husband's infidelities and even married a man they knew beforehand would be unfaithful (an example is Dolores Hope, wife of Bob Hope who stayed married for 69 yrs.).
Hillary was accused of enabling her husband's escapades, but these people don't know about enabling. If you are going to stay married, you are an enabler. To divorce is to create a broken family if you think that is good. I have written about this elsewhere (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/enabling.html).
I do not understand so many women's criticism of Bill Clinton in the Monica Lewinski affair as she did come on to him and even tried to get him to get divorced. In my day she would have been considered a home wrecker. It seems that women feel that the age of 22 is still childhood. I have a suggestion, get the statutory rape act extended to whatever age women feel is adulthood.
* https://www.bmwusfactory.com/bmw_articles/bmw-manufacturing-remains-largest-u-s-automotive-exporter/
https://www.cars.com/articles/2012/04/which-foreign-owned-carmakers-build-the-most-in-america/
** http://www.politifact.com/colorado/statements/2016/feb/17/hillary-clinton/hillary-clinton-wrong-sanders-claim/
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/womens-rights-and-opportunity/
*** https://www.vox.com/2016/2/22/11069158/hillary-clinton-in-harlem
https://www.buzzfeed.com/adriancarrasquillo/hillary-clinton-has-deep-history-with-latinos-and-theres-not?utm_term=.ruxMKv0XPW#.yv38EK3pyl
**** https://www.colorlines.com/articles/every-time-hillary-clinton-mentioned-people-color-during-her-dnc-speech
The media keeps saying that no one knows what the Democratic Party stands for, but it is very simple. The Democratic Party stands for Fairness and Justice For All. The Republican Party may claim they are for Fairness and Justice except they can't add the For All.
Thus Democrats and Hillary have supported the cases of women, minorities and the LGBT community. This can be tricky as some fell she has not done enough for them. A rebel group of young Latinos seems to like Hillary's views but they just don't trust her (http://www.latinorebels.com/2016/05/11/why-young-people-of-color-are-rejecting-hillary-clinton/).
I hope they like what they got. If it comes to who I would pick between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on the trust issue, I know who I would pick. Hint: the name has a W and a C in it.
Hillary tried to adopt where she could, e.g. came out against TPP, but couldn't adopt enough for her principles. Besides, people felt she was lying about her opposition to TPP. I ho[e she was.
The news media didn't like her and actually published more negative things about her and fewer positive things about her than for Donald Trump than all other major candidates (https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2016/04/15/media-analysis-shows-hillary-clinton-has-received-most-negative-stories-least-positive-stories-all/209945). The news media typed her and once you get typed by the media, it is almost impossible to change it.
Consider: Democrats are FOR an increase in the minimum wage that has remained static since 2009 Republicans are AGAINST it, and some would like to get rid of it. We are actually living in a Republican "Heaven" age of low wages, and as a result, companies are making a lot of money passing little or none of it on to their workers. German automobile companies think of the American South as a third world country and are happy to make cars there, even for export. The BMW Spartanburg, South Carolina, plant is the biggest exporter of cars from America.* Honda assembles more cars in America than it does in Japan.*
Consider: Hillery has had a lifelong interest in the betterment of children since graduating from law school. Her first job was with the Children's Defense Fund. She even published a book, "It Takes A Village To Raise A child." As a Senator, she worked hard to get a bill passed (Children's Health Insurance Program or CHIP) to provide health care for 8 million needy children.** She was a co-sponsor of the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, the first act President Obama signed into law.
Consider: "White Americans need to do a better job at listening when African Americans talk about the seen and unseen barriers they face every day," she said. "Practice humility rather than assume that our experience is everyone’s experiences."***
Hillary has had a long association with Hispanics going as far back as 1972.
Garry Mauro, one of her first contacts in Texas, told the San Antonio Express in 2008 that back then she had a "cultural affinity with Hispanics," asking questions and listening to their concerns, a dynamic that would be on display again, more than three decades later in Nevada, as she tried to woo an influential Latino activist.***
Consider: And we will defend, we will defend all our rights. Civil rights, human rights and voting rights. Women’s rights and workers’ rights. LGBT rights and the rights of people with disabilities.”
Hillary's speeches seem to have been continually criticized by the press. I heard a number of her speeches, and they seemed very good to me. At first, it was that she was too serious, so she smiled more and sometimes even gave her famous belly laugh.
A big issue became Hillary's marriage to Bill Clinton. Some women, mostly younger, blame her for not getting divorced over her husband's infidelities. Whatever happened to "Until death do us part." in the marriage ceremony? There are lots of wives who put up with their husband's infidelities and even married a man they knew beforehand would be unfaithful (an example is Dolores Hope, wife of Bob Hope who stayed married for 69 yrs.).
Hillary was accused of enabling her husband's escapades, but these people don't know about enabling. If you are going to stay married, you are an enabler. To divorce is to create a broken family if you think that is good. I have written about this elsewhere (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/enabling.html).
I do not understand so many women's criticism of Bill Clinton in the Monica Lewinski affair as she did come on to him and even tried to get him to get divorced. In my day she would have been considered a home wrecker. It seems that women feel that the age of 22 is still childhood. I have a suggestion, get the statutory rape act extended to whatever age women feel is adulthood.
* https://www.bmwusfactory.com/bmw_articles/bmw-manufacturing-remains-largest-u-s-automotive-exporter/
https://www.cars.com/articles/2012/04/which-foreign-owned-carmakers-build-the-most-in-america/
** http://www.politifact.com/colorado/statements/2016/feb/17/hillary-clinton/hillary-clinton-wrong-sanders-claim/
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/womens-rights-and-opportunity/
*** https://www.vox.com/2016/2/22/11069158/hillary-clinton-in-harlem
https://www.buzzfeed.com/adriancarrasquillo/hillary-clinton-has-deep-history-with-latinos-and-theres-not?utm_term=.ruxMKv0XPW#.yv38EK3pyl
**** https://www.colorlines.com/articles/every-time-hillary-clinton-mentioned-people-color-during-her-dnc-speech
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