Planning for life is very difficult. There is a saying, "Life is what happens as we plan other things."
There are uncertainties in how long you will live. For example no male on either side of my family lived to 75, and here I am 86 and age. I never dreamed of attaining in my wildest dreams!
And then there is the economy. Yes we know the economy goes up and down, but will it be down when you need some money? Who would have thought we would have another financial collapse like 1929; yet, we did in 20008-2009, and during my retirement at that. Our assets dropped in half. Fortunately I wasn't hurting for money so we came through that all right.
So how do you plan for inflation, deflation, financial collapse, runaway inflation, and possible sickness. I never took out long-term care insurance because I never expected to live to 75, though I hoped to live to 70. So I developed financial modules one for safe money (CDs) that couldn't be touched until desperate, one for runaway inflation (stocks and some bonds, and precious metals).
But what really gets me is our government. We live in a land of push and shove and anything goes so what is true today may not be true tomorrow. In the period of Reagan tax cuts and his reworking the tax code, I ended up paying more taxes because of the closing of certain "loopholes." For just one example, you used to be able to take interest on time purchases off your income, but no longer.
Now you have to finagle taking out a home construction loan to get money for such things and deduct the interest, but I no longer have a home. At one time, you used to be able to deduct health insurance from you income. Then it became health costs over 5%. Then it became health costs over 7.5% of your income (That happened just in my paying for Medicare and my backup plan.). Now it is more than 10% of AGI (adjusted gross income).*
You should tremble when congress talks of "reforming the tax code" because you are very likely to be among those who get hurt. For one example there is talk of drastically reducing what you can put into a 401K plan to $2,500. At $2,500/yr, 401K's are no longer a retirement plan. For another there is talk of elimination deductions of state and local taxes from your Federal taxes. Watch out!
* https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/health-care/deducting-medical-expenses-for-a-major-illness-or-injury/L5fSkrd6C
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/25/gop-shouldnt-raid-401k-retirement-plans-to-fund-tax-cuts-commentary.html
Monday, October 30, 2017
Sunday, October 29, 2017
DOLLAR INDEX TREND CHANGES
We have undergone an extended period where the Dollar Index ($DXY) has fallen, and then risen some but not as high as the previous high, then fallen some more and risen again but not as high as the previous high. This downward sine curve started last December, 2016, when the dollar index was above 102. We went through five declining peaks and valleys until the bottom set at 91.32 on September 8, 2017.
The following rise went to 93.79, slightly higher (not lower) than the previous peak of 93.73, indicating that the declining trend in the dollar might be over. The following valley only declined to 93.05, higher than the previous low of 91.32. The dollar index closed Friday at 94.80, higher again than the previous high of 93.79 on October 6.
Click on figure to enlarge)
How high the dollar may go in this rising trend is anyone's guess, but the high of last December was substantially higher than now. But the previous period prior to December 2016 had a horizontal trend of peaks close to 100 and troughs close to 92 in 2015.
Incidentally, in 2014 the $DXY hit a trough of 79.90 and the dollar has never gotten close to that in 2017.
At any rate, the rising dollar will have an macro economic effect, dampening U.S. export profits that doesn't sound good for multi-national companies at a time when the global economy is increasing nicely that does sound good for multi-national companies. Will the two things balance out?
Watch this space.
The following rise went to 93.79, slightly higher (not lower) than the previous peak of 93.73, indicating that the declining trend in the dollar might be over. The following valley only declined to 93.05, higher than the previous low of 91.32. The dollar index closed Friday at 94.80, higher again than the previous high of 93.79 on October 6.
How high the dollar may go in this rising trend is anyone's guess, but the high of last December was substantially higher than now. But the previous period prior to December 2016 had a horizontal trend of peaks close to 100 and troughs close to 92 in 2015.
Incidentally, in 2014 the $DXY hit a trough of 79.90 and the dollar has never gotten close to that in 2017.
At any rate, the rising dollar will have an macro economic effect, dampening U.S. export profits that doesn't sound good for multi-national companies at a time when the global economy is increasing nicely that does sound good for multi-national companies. Will the two things balance out?
Watch this space.
Friday, October 27, 2017
NEW MALLS
We all know that brick and mortar retail stores are having a tough time because of online purchases from companies like Amazon and retail stores themselves. Not surprisingly, the problem extends to mall operators themselves like giant GGP Inc. that owns 126 retail malls. but they are working on a new mall set to open in 2018.
Mr. Mathrani said the death of shopping malls has been exaggerated. GGP has leased nearly 10 million square feet so far this year, up from 9.5 million for all of 2016. But he concedes there is a wide variance between the top-rated malls and weaker properties. For instance, foot traffic rose 1.4% at GGP’s high-end A malls for the first six months of the year, but was flat at its midtier B malls.
The peak decade for new mall construction was 1966 - 1975 The decade does not neatly fit into presidential terms as it includes the later half of the Reagan administration, the entire Bush-41 administration, and beginning of the Clinton administration. Thus the decline has been in effect for some time but has dropped to a new minimum during the decade of 2006 - 2015 (the end of the bush-43 administration and most of the Obama administration).
(click on figure to enlarge)
GGP is also upending the standard formula. Only about 30% of the SoNo mall will contain retail chains, reflecting a shift in shopper spending away from clothing toward beauty, health and fitness and entertainment.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-mall-operator-bets-that-america-needs-a-new-mall-1508842802
Mr. Mathrani said the death of shopping malls has been exaggerated. GGP has leased nearly 10 million square feet so far this year, up from 9.5 million for all of 2016. But he concedes there is a wide variance between the top-rated malls and weaker properties. For instance, foot traffic rose 1.4% at GGP’s high-end A malls for the first six months of the year, but was flat at its midtier B malls.
The peak decade for new mall construction was 1966 - 1975 The decade does not neatly fit into presidential terms as it includes the later half of the Reagan administration, the entire Bush-41 administration, and beginning of the Clinton administration. Thus the decline has been in effect for some time but has dropped to a new minimum during the decade of 2006 - 2015 (the end of the bush-43 administration and most of the Obama administration).
GGP is also upending the standard formula. Only about 30% of the SoNo mall will contain retail chains, reflecting a shift in shopper spending away from clothing toward beauty, health and fitness and entertainment.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-mall-operator-bets-that-america-needs-a-new-mall-1508842802
Thursday, October 26, 2017
PRESIDENTIAL DECORUM
We in America have invested our President, not only with the duties of a prime minister but with certain trappings of royalty as well. This is why decorum in a president is important. President Kennedy was very aware of this and played it to the hilt. When given a cowboy hat as a gift, he held it in his hands and did not put it on, for example.
But decorum in the president is "out the window" now. Someone like Sen. Flake* can have a 97% approval rating as a conservative and still have only 18% poll rating in Arizona largely because of his critical remarks about the lack of decorum by the president. Flake after all voted for ALL the "health care" measures rapidly thrown together in the Senate no matter how awful. That should be enough to endanger his reelection, but it is not the reason.
True, Flack, like me, finds our President scary on foreign policy. He is sympathetic to illegal workers, and opposed to the WALL. The latter is enough for Trump lovers to hate Flake by itself.
But the problem with our President goes beyond him. Proposals being put forth by Republicans in the Senate and House are depressing. The House narrowly passed the "budget" bill that blasts open the deficit by an estimated $1.5 trillion. To pay for this deficit, Republicans will try to take away various benefits people are getting from Medicaid and Medicare. Can we afford health care for the people in America?
Our big hope is for Trump to screw up the tax reform. I would be OK with a 10% cut in the corporate tax rate from 36% to 26% and see if it pays for itself. I'm also OK with a tax rate of 10% on foreign earnings returned to America for companies that legally agree not to buy back stock for at least five years. Buying back stock in most cases is just a waste of money by companies that don't know what to do with their excess earnings. It is hardly certain that companies will either increase the number of employees or increase their wages as neither of these happened in the 2004 tax Holiday.
* http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/25/politics/flake-speech-trump-gop/index.html
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/michael-barone-jeff-flake-is-the-senator-from-the-wrong-state/article/2638593
But decorum in the president is "out the window" now. Someone like Sen. Flake* can have a 97% approval rating as a conservative and still have only 18% poll rating in Arizona largely because of his critical remarks about the lack of decorum by the president. Flake after all voted for ALL the "health care" measures rapidly thrown together in the Senate no matter how awful. That should be enough to endanger his reelection, but it is not the reason.
True, Flack, like me, finds our President scary on foreign policy. He is sympathetic to illegal workers, and opposed to the WALL. The latter is enough for Trump lovers to hate Flake by itself.
But the problem with our President goes beyond him. Proposals being put forth by Republicans in the Senate and House are depressing. The House narrowly passed the "budget" bill that blasts open the deficit by an estimated $1.5 trillion. To pay for this deficit, Republicans will try to take away various benefits people are getting from Medicaid and Medicare. Can we afford health care for the people in America?
Our big hope is for Trump to screw up the tax reform. I would be OK with a 10% cut in the corporate tax rate from 36% to 26% and see if it pays for itself. I'm also OK with a tax rate of 10% on foreign earnings returned to America for companies that legally agree not to buy back stock for at least five years. Buying back stock in most cases is just a waste of money by companies that don't know what to do with their excess earnings. It is hardly certain that companies will either increase the number of employees or increase their wages as neither of these happened in the 2004 tax Holiday.
* http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/25/politics/flake-speech-trump-gop/index.html
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/michael-barone-jeff-flake-is-the-senator-from-the-wrong-state/article/2638593
Wednesday, October 25, 2017
ABORTION REFUSED FOR 17 YR-OLD IMMIGRANT GIRL
Just a week ago, I wrote about Lights Going Out In America.* Now I have become aware of a case of an immigrant from Mexico, a 17 yr-old girl, is being refused an abortion by herr custodian - the American government.** The article cited is by The Economist and is very good. I urge you to read it in entirely. It is not long.
The young girl is not asking the U.S. government to pay for her abortion, drive her to the facility, etc, but she is still being refused to have it, even though a Court Of Appeals has said she should be allowed to have it. The government may take it to the Supreme court. They want to stall until the girl is 20 wks pregnant so she cannot have an abortion because of Texas Law. She is currently 16 wks pregnant.
But an additional feature of the article mentions other cases where someone agrees that someone else should not have their rights. When we now talk about religious freedom, we need to ask, "Freedom For Whom?" It is usually a freedom to discriminate against someone else, supposedly because of religious beliefs.
Also mentioned is the Hobby Lobby and Little Sisters Of The Poor cases where an employer refuses to even let the government pay for what the organizations say are abortifactients. and the Christian baker who refused to bake a wedding cake for a Gay couple,
The article ends with:
Federal agencies are not bearers of religious-liberty interests. By the same token, the Department of Defence cannot suddenly decide to pull out of wars it deems unjust. Nor can the Social Security Administration close up shop because its personnel adopt the Amish belief that insurance is an insult to God. The rule of law governs in America: an arm of the federal government cannot go rogue in the hopes of avoiding “complicity” in lawful endeavours.**
Nice words but yes, the lights ARE going out in America.
I got word this morning (October 26) from NARAL, that the 17 yr old girl was able to get an abortion after all.
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/10/lights-going-out-in-america.html
** https://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2017/10/testing-limits
The young girl is not asking the U.S. government to pay for her abortion, drive her to the facility, etc, but she is still being refused to have it, even though a Court Of Appeals has said she should be allowed to have it. The government may take it to the Supreme court. They want to stall until the girl is 20 wks pregnant so she cannot have an abortion because of Texas Law. She is currently 16 wks pregnant.
But an additional feature of the article mentions other cases where someone agrees that someone else should not have their rights. When we now talk about religious freedom, we need to ask, "Freedom For Whom?" It is usually a freedom to discriminate against someone else, supposedly because of religious beliefs.
Also mentioned is the Hobby Lobby and Little Sisters Of The Poor cases where an employer refuses to even let the government pay for what the organizations say are abortifactients. and the Christian baker who refused to bake a wedding cake for a Gay couple,
The article ends with:
Federal agencies are not bearers of religious-liberty interests. By the same token, the Department of Defence cannot suddenly decide to pull out of wars it deems unjust. Nor can the Social Security Administration close up shop because its personnel adopt the Amish belief that insurance is an insult to God. The rule of law governs in America: an arm of the federal government cannot go rogue in the hopes of avoiding “complicity” in lawful endeavours.**
Nice words but yes, the lights ARE going out in America.
I got word this morning (October 26) from NARAL, that the 17 yr old girl was able to get an abortion after all.
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/10/lights-going-out-in-america.html
** https://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2017/10/testing-limits
Tuesday, October 24, 2017
MELANIA TRUMP ON BULLYING
First Lady Melania Trump has taken a tour to schools in which she is trying to combat bullying. * Some news-people make fun of her as she is married to the biggest Bully anyone has ever heard of. I wish they wouldn't do that. After all, you can be sure that she has been bullied by her husband, maybe daily.** I only hope they do have some good times together. Shes seems to have made an adjustment to the situation, perhaps for the sake of her child. Perhaps she hopes that her husband hears her efforts and will modify his nature some, especially toward her.
I think she is the perfect example of my saying: "Marry a rich spouse and be miserable in comfort."***
I tell myself that I shouldn't feel sorry for her, but I do.****
* http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/melania-trump-anti-bullying-campaign-husband-donald-treatment-us-president-first-lady-a8017236.html
**https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/04/donald-melania-trump-marriage
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/06/best-sayings-of-everett-estes-ford.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/11/im-also-beginning-to-feel-sorry-for.html
I think she is the perfect example of my saying: "Marry a rich spouse and be miserable in comfort."***
I tell myself that I shouldn't feel sorry for her, but I do.****
* http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/melania-trump-anti-bullying-campaign-husband-donald-treatment-us-president-first-lady-a8017236.html
**https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/04/donald-melania-trump-marriage
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/06/best-sayings-of-everett-estes-ford.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/11/im-also-beginning-to-feel-sorry-for.html
Monday, October 23, 2017
SOLAR ENERGY- OCTOBER 2017
The Solar industry continues to perform well, though it may be flat next year for some reason:
It’s an abrupt turn after a good year for the industry. The Guggenheim Solar exchange-traded fund (TAN) is up 31% since Jan. 1, compared with the Nasdaq Composite’s 21% rise. Those returns reflected the strong demand enjoyed by the solar industry, as developers and installers raced to get ahead of the threatened U.S. tariff and reductions planned by China in 2018 for domestic solar projects. June-quarter shipments of modules rose 68% year over year at JinkoSolar, while shipments rose 89% at JA Solar. And the ITC’s move toward tariffs may spur continued stockpiling of orders by these companies’ customers in the year’s remaining months.
http://www.barrons.com/articles/will-new-tariffs-dim-the-solar-power-boom-1506746992
It’s an abrupt turn after a good year for the industry. The Guggenheim Solar exchange-traded fund (TAN) is up 31% since Jan. 1, compared with the Nasdaq Composite’s 21% rise. Those returns reflected the strong demand enjoyed by the solar industry, as developers and installers raced to get ahead of the threatened U.S. tariff and reductions planned by China in 2018 for domestic solar projects. June-quarter shipments of modules rose 68% year over year at JinkoSolar, while shipments rose 89% at JA Solar. And the ITC’s move toward tariffs may spur continued stockpiling of orders by these companies’ customers in the year’s remaining months.
http://www.barrons.com/articles/will-new-tariffs-dim-the-solar-power-boom-1506746992
Saturday, October 21, 2017
GEN. JOHN KELLY
When Gen. John Kelly was chosen to head Homeland Security, I was relieved, but that was premature. He started to deport illegals. Supposedly he was to concentrate on illegals who are criminals, but he went after low-hanging fruit - mothers of American born children. How could he do this? I thought we weren't going to breakup families? Well one had been convicted of shoplifting a decade or more before, but was clean since. Why didn't they deport her when she was convicted of shoplifting?
Then it occurred to me that most military officers are very conservative. I used to say 90% are that way, but others have said I am too optimistic.
It also occurred to me that for someone who sent young men off to battle and possibly be killed or accrue life-changing injuries, maybe separating mothers from their children isn't so hard. I even heard they looked into deporting the children along with the mother.! Aren't they all heart?
So I was happy when Kelly was chosen to be President Trump's new Chief Of Staff. It got him out of Homeland Security where he turned out not to be a good fit, and I thought that Chief Of Staff was a position where he might do some good in getting some order into the Presidency. I do think he did some of that, and I bet it wasn't easy.
Unfortunately President Trump chose to call the mother of Sgt. La David Johnson who was mysteriously killed in Niger along with three other sergeants. This is not the sort of thing Trump does well and sure enough the mother, her parents and Fl Rep. Frederica Wilson took offense at Trump's well meaning but botched attempt at consolation.. Rep. Frederica, who was in the car and heard the conversation because it was on speaker phone, was interviewed on TV and was indignant at Trump's failed attempt quoting part of what Trump said. Her comment was backed up by a grandparent of Sgt. Johnson.
Why was Frederica in the car? She had founded an organization called 5000 Roll Models that is a dropout prevention program for minority boys and Sgt Johnson was one of her successes. As a result she became close to the family.
Well then Gen. Kelly decided to get into the act because the President made things worse by criticizing Rep Wilson and mentioned Gen. Kelly's dead son and former President Obama.
Gen. Kelly started out all right and was doing what I expected him to do when all of a sudden he went into a tirade over Rep. Wilson:
“It stuns me that a member of Congress would have listened in on that conversation. Absolutely stuns me,” he said, adding that the death of someone serving their country in the military was sacred*
He compared her to an empty barrel. Some trying to defend Gen Kelly said that he may not know the history of the family and Rep. Wilson. Well I knew and I thought that a general would want to know the facts before shooting off his mouth.
Also Gen. Kelly, I'm sure inadvertently, said that a lot of things were sacred but no longer. In these he mentioned women used to be sacred (ah, that is what he said) but no longer . I'm not sure he knew he was taking a swipe at President Trump.
Then somehow, Gen. Kelly reached into his inner Trump and
It turns out that Kelly was mistaken about Wilson. He attacked her for praising her own role in securing funding for a new FBI building in her district. In fact, she had only taken credit for helping to name it, and she did so in a humble and bipartisan way.**
Well, Rep. Wilson wouldn't back down and neither would Gen. Kelly, and naturally bully Trump wasn't helping (and, as we have come to expect, still isn't). What a mess when something started out with the intent of consolation
In my experience high level military officers are diplomatic, especially Generals and Admirals ( Michael Flynn is an exception), and I am not sure why Gen Kelly exploded without knowing the facts. Perhaps because President Trump brought Gen. Kelly's son, killed on duty, into the picture? Clearly Gen. Kelly is not the man I thought he was.
Did I mention that Rep. Wilson is an African American woman. "Get in the back of the bus and shut up!"
* http://nypost.com/2017/10/19/kelly-defends-trumps-call-to-gold-star-widow/
https://twitter.com/repwilson?lang=en
** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/20/john-kelly-changed-the-game-commentary.html
Then it occurred to me that most military officers are very conservative. I used to say 90% are that way, but others have said I am too optimistic.
It also occurred to me that for someone who sent young men off to battle and possibly be killed or accrue life-changing injuries, maybe separating mothers from their children isn't so hard. I even heard they looked into deporting the children along with the mother.! Aren't they all heart?
So I was happy when Kelly was chosen to be President Trump's new Chief Of Staff. It got him out of Homeland Security where he turned out not to be a good fit, and I thought that Chief Of Staff was a position where he might do some good in getting some order into the Presidency. I do think he did some of that, and I bet it wasn't easy.
Unfortunately President Trump chose to call the mother of Sgt. La David Johnson who was mysteriously killed in Niger along with three other sergeants. This is not the sort of thing Trump does well and sure enough the mother, her parents and Fl Rep. Frederica Wilson took offense at Trump's well meaning but botched attempt at consolation.. Rep. Frederica, who was in the car and heard the conversation because it was on speaker phone, was interviewed on TV and was indignant at Trump's failed attempt quoting part of what Trump said. Her comment was backed up by a grandparent of Sgt. Johnson.
Why was Frederica in the car? She had founded an organization called 5000 Roll Models that is a dropout prevention program for minority boys and Sgt Johnson was one of her successes. As a result she became close to the family.
Well then Gen. Kelly decided to get into the act because the President made things worse by criticizing Rep Wilson and mentioned Gen. Kelly's dead son and former President Obama.
Gen. Kelly started out all right and was doing what I expected him to do when all of a sudden he went into a tirade over Rep. Wilson:
Kelly also blasted Democratic Rep. Frederica S. Wilson for listening in and politicizing the call that Trump had made.
He compared her to an empty barrel. Some trying to defend Gen Kelly said that he may not know the history of the family and Rep. Wilson. Well I knew and I thought that a general would want to know the facts before shooting off his mouth.
Also Gen. Kelly, I'm sure inadvertently, said that a lot of things were sacred but no longer. In these he mentioned women used to be sacred (ah, that is what he said) but no longer . I'm not sure he knew he was taking a swipe at President Trump.
Then somehow, Gen. Kelly reached into his inner Trump and
It turns out that Kelly was mistaken about Wilson. He attacked her for praising her own role in securing funding for a new FBI building in her district. In fact, she had only taken credit for helping to name it, and she did so in a humble and bipartisan way.**
Well, Rep. Wilson wouldn't back down and neither would Gen. Kelly, and naturally bully Trump wasn't helping (and, as we have come to expect, still isn't). What a mess when something started out with the intent of consolation
In my experience high level military officers are diplomatic, especially Generals and Admirals ( Michael Flynn is an exception), and I am not sure why Gen Kelly exploded without knowing the facts. Perhaps because President Trump brought Gen. Kelly's son, killed on duty, into the picture? Clearly Gen. Kelly is not the man I thought he was.
Did I mention that Rep. Wilson is an African American woman. "Get in the back of the bus and shut up!"
* http://nypost.com/2017/10/19/kelly-defends-trumps-call-to-gold-star-widow/
https://twitter.com/repwilson?lang=en
** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/20/john-kelly-changed-the-game-commentary.html
Thursday, October 19, 2017
S&P500 CRASH OF 1987 VS. TODAY'S 2017 MARKET
Today (October 19th, 2017) is the 30th anniversary of Black Monday when the DJIA plunged more than 20%. so naturally people are looking for a sign that we are there again. Attention has been drawn to the similarity of the S&P 500 stock price rise and 1987. What they don't knte is the on the Friday before Black Monday was a dark Friday. If you carefully look at the figure,* you will see a sizable drop in the S&P 500 before the biggie. This we haven't seen. In fact, the S&P 500 was already on a general downtrend for at least a month before the biggie. The peak was hit in July.
Even if we do have a crash, we should remember that both the DJIA and the S&P500 were up around 3% for the year, not great but certainly not bad. somehow that doesn't get mentioned.
While the S&P 500 has been hitting new highs lately, it is creeping up and not jumping up (not obvious from the figure).
One interesting thing going on right now is not only are American companies earnings very good, but there is an increasing global economy that should be good for U.S. multinational companies. While I don't believe that market will go straight up (today's drop doesn't surprise me), I stick to my forecast for the year that the indices will creep to new all time highs during the year.
* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/18/sam-stovall-2017-chart-of-the-stock-market-looks-eerily-similar-to-87.html
Even if we do have a crash, we should remember that both the DJIA and the S&P500 were up around 3% for the year, not great but certainly not bad. somehow that doesn't get mentioned.
While the S&P 500 has been hitting new highs lately, it is creeping up and not jumping up (not obvious from the figure).
One interesting thing going on right now is not only are American companies earnings very good, but there is an increasing global economy that should be good for U.S. multinational companies. While I don't believe that market will go straight up (today's drop doesn't surprise me), I stick to my forecast for the year that the indices will creep to new all time highs during the year.
* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/18/sam-stovall-2017-chart-of-the-stock-market-looks-eerily-similar-to-87.html
Wednesday, October 18, 2017
LIGHTS GOING OUT IN AMERICA?
We seem to have entered a time where the lights are going out in America. They already are in my state of North Carolina with our HB-2 legislation where transgender people must go to the bathroom of their birth. so far as I know, I have never met a transgender person,r in a bathroom, locker room, or elsewhere. I have even been places with unisex bathrooms where men an women do their thing in the same bathroom together. Though at first I felt uncomfortable, I quickly got used to it. I mean you can go into stalls and close the door can't you?
I'm not sure when it started. Maybe with the Supreme Court decision of Citizen's United where it was ruled that companies are people. Chairmen of the Board and CEOs (usually the same person) not only could make their personal contributions to politics but that of their companies as well and didn't even have to tell their stock holders (allegedly the owners) what they were doing. Well maybe some of the major stock holders know.
But is was clear when the Supreme Court ruled that owners of a privately-held company could pick and choose what parts of a law they wouldn't obey based on their religious beliefs - the Hobby Lobby Case. In the case in question it was including contraceptives in health insurance under the ACA health law. It was clear that the division between church and state was over.
Mind you, there was already an exemption for religious organizations to comply with the contraceptive issue for their own employees. The problem was that the Federal government would take care of the matter so that the company could be guilt free, but The Little Sister's of The Poor weren't satisfied and sued the government. The Supreme Court ruling was that the two sides should work out something.
Now our President has sided with the Little Sister's Of The Poor and religious groups won't have to comply with the law. In theory of course, you don't have to work for religious organizations like the privately held Hobby Lobby or the Little Sister's Of The Poor and about 200 other religious organizations. So now, the president, not surprisingly, is allowing all lawsuits claiming they should not have to obey the contraceptive provision of the ACA because of the religious beliefs avoid any Federal workaround.
Weirdness over contraceptives has been around for some time. The paleo-religious have even invented the view that a fertilized human egg deserves personhood and doing anything that might not bring this personhood to birth should be against the law. Notice that the definition of pregnancy is when a fertilized egg has attached to the womb wall. This procedure can take days, even a week or more so there are plenty of opportunities for something to happen to prevent the pregnancy. A woman could pass the egg, for example. I have not found any studies on this, admittedly they would be difficult, but I suspect this is what happens in most cases. But there are drugs a woman can take to ensure that the fertilized egg does not adhere to the womb wall such as the Morning After pill. This is what the paleo-religious are after.
So what does this mean? Do women have to collect any passed eggs to see if they are fertilized and if they are to name them and give them a proper burial? Our Vice-President was after something like this with aborted fetuses, i.e. that the must be given a proper burial by law.
Where all this will end up, I don't know. Still, we are a long way from ISUS that would throw gay men off a building top and murder fornicators. I believe in the early days of our country, there were laws that you had to go to church and there were people there to ensure you didn't go to sleep. There is the statement, "There is freedom of religion, not freedom from religion." Of course there is an exception to this for Muslims in America. Will they be required to convert to Christianity. If they refuse, what happens? And what happens to Jews?
As for Gays, there are Evangelicals who will quote you verses in the Bible that say we should kill homosexuals. The "liberal" Evangelicals say "Not yet, they should be first be given a choice to recant." As if they can.
How far will this develop? We have a political party where all their Representative, Senators and, even, the President oppose abortion - 100%. They could have passed a law without Democrats that removed the contraceptive provision from the ACA. Why didn't they? Why did they rely on the Supreme Court for this legislation?
I'm not sure when it started. Maybe with the Supreme Court decision of Citizen's United where it was ruled that companies are people. Chairmen of the Board and CEOs (usually the same person) not only could make their personal contributions to politics but that of their companies as well and didn't even have to tell their stock holders (allegedly the owners) what they were doing. Well maybe some of the major stock holders know.
But is was clear when the Supreme Court ruled that owners of a privately-held company could pick and choose what parts of a law they wouldn't obey based on their religious beliefs - the Hobby Lobby Case. In the case in question it was including contraceptives in health insurance under the ACA health law. It was clear that the division between church and state was over.
Mind you, there was already an exemption for religious organizations to comply with the contraceptive issue for their own employees. The problem was that the Federal government would take care of the matter so that the company could be guilt free, but The Little Sister's of The Poor weren't satisfied and sued the government. The Supreme Court ruling was that the two sides should work out something.
Now our President has sided with the Little Sister's Of The Poor and religious groups won't have to comply with the law. In theory of course, you don't have to work for religious organizations like the privately held Hobby Lobby or the Little Sister's Of The Poor and about 200 other religious organizations. So now, the president, not surprisingly, is allowing all lawsuits claiming they should not have to obey the contraceptive provision of the ACA because of the religious beliefs avoid any Federal workaround.
Weirdness over contraceptives has been around for some time. The paleo-religious have even invented the view that a fertilized human egg deserves personhood and doing anything that might not bring this personhood to birth should be against the law. Notice that the definition of pregnancy is when a fertilized egg has attached to the womb wall. This procedure can take days, even a week or more so there are plenty of opportunities for something to happen to prevent the pregnancy. A woman could pass the egg, for example. I have not found any studies on this, admittedly they would be difficult, but I suspect this is what happens in most cases. But there are drugs a woman can take to ensure that the fertilized egg does not adhere to the womb wall such as the Morning After pill. This is what the paleo-religious are after.
So what does this mean? Do women have to collect any passed eggs to see if they are fertilized and if they are to name them and give them a proper burial? Our Vice-President was after something like this with aborted fetuses, i.e. that the must be given a proper burial by law.
Where all this will end up, I don't know. Still, we are a long way from ISUS that would throw gay men off a building top and murder fornicators. I believe in the early days of our country, there were laws that you had to go to church and there were people there to ensure you didn't go to sleep. There is the statement, "There is freedom of religion, not freedom from religion." Of course there is an exception to this for Muslims in America. Will they be required to convert to Christianity. If they refuse, what happens? And what happens to Jews?
As for Gays, there are Evangelicals who will quote you verses in the Bible that say we should kill homosexuals. The "liberal" Evangelicals say "Not yet, they should be first be given a choice to recant." As if they can.
How far will this develop? We have a political party where all their Representative, Senators and, even, the President oppose abortion - 100%. They could have passed a law without Democrats that removed the contraceptive provision from the ACA. Why didn't they? Why did they rely on the Supreme Court for this legislation?
Monday, October 16, 2017
NEW GILDED AGE?
Lobbyist Bruce Mehlman sees a similarity between today, and what is known as the Gilded age of the 1890s:*
He likens Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, Google’s Larry Page and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos (who also owns The Washington Post) to captains of industry like Andrew Carnegie, John D. Rockefeller and Cornelius Vanderbilt.*
“Back then you had iconic innovators who built these dominant companies and amassed great fortunes. You've got that again today,” Mehlman explained in an interview. “You saw income inequality spike. The last time it was as high for the top 10 percent as it is today was the Gilded Age. … In politics, you saw a rich few increasingly dominating spending to impact elections — similar to today.”*
One thing on which I heartily agree with Mehlman is the lingering effect of the Great Recession.
President Trump’s win should be viewed partly as an aftershock of the Great Recession, just as the fear that lingered after market crashes in 1873 and 1893 affected the outcome of multiple elections.*
Perhaps Republican Teddy Roosevelt (26th President) is best known for the Expediting Act of 1903 that broke up the steel, meatpacking, oil, and railroad cartels, but he was also known for improving food safety and conservation. The Gilded Age is usually felt to be the period from about 1870 to 1900 so Teddy Roosevelt might be said to have ended the Gilded Age.
* https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/10/04/daily-202-why-a-republican-strategist-thinks-we-re-in-a-new-gilded-age/59d4454530fb0468cea81d53/?utm_term=.cf9ae4da1f8e
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expediting_Act
He likens Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, Google’s Larry Page and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos (who also owns The Washington Post) to captains of industry like Andrew Carnegie, John D. Rockefeller and Cornelius Vanderbilt.*
“Back then you had iconic innovators who built these dominant companies and amassed great fortunes. You've got that again today,” Mehlman explained in an interview. “You saw income inequality spike. The last time it was as high for the top 10 percent as it is today was the Gilded Age. … In politics, you saw a rich few increasingly dominating spending to impact elections — similar to today.”*
One thing on which I heartily agree with Mehlman is the lingering effect of the Great Recession.
President Trump’s win should be viewed partly as an aftershock of the Great Recession, just as the fear that lingered after market crashes in 1873 and 1893 affected the outcome of multiple elections.*
Perhaps Republican Teddy Roosevelt (26th President) is best known for the Expediting Act of 1903 that broke up the steel, meatpacking, oil, and railroad cartels, but he was also known for improving food safety and conservation. The Gilded Age is usually felt to be the period from about 1870 to 1900 so Teddy Roosevelt might be said to have ended the Gilded Age.
* https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/10/04/daily-202-why-a-republican-strategist-thinks-we-re-in-a-new-gilded-age/59d4454530fb0468cea81d53/?utm_term=.cf9ae4da1f8e
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expediting_Act
Sunday, October 15, 2017
IS THE U.S. TAXED TOO MUCH?
Our president keeps saying an untruth that we are the highest taxed people in the world. I noted a few months ago* that is not true, but I thought that the figure below** from CNBC adds something to the discussion:
(Click on figure to enlarge)
It turns out that we are not even close to being the highest taxed though we are above the OECD average, but that is not good enough, I guess. There are several ways to look at taxes. Another way is to look at taxes as a percent of GDP,** This way shows America is the 4th lowest in the world and way below the OECD average (See the figure in the first reference* and 2nd figure in the scecond reference, which are the same except for the number of decimal points). Only Korea, Chile, and Mexico are lower in taxes as percent of GDP.
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/08/taxes-america-versus-world.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/06/sorry-president-trump-the-us-is-not-the-highest-taxed-nation-in-the-world.html
It turns out that we are not even close to being the highest taxed though we are above the OECD average, but that is not good enough, I guess. There are several ways to look at taxes. Another way is to look at taxes as a percent of GDP,** This way shows America is the 4th lowest in the world and way below the OECD average (See the figure in the first reference* and 2nd figure in the scecond reference, which are the same except for the number of decimal points). Only Korea, Chile, and Mexico are lower in taxes as percent of GDP.
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/08/taxes-america-versus-world.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/06/sorry-president-trump-the-us-is-not-the-highest-taxed-nation-in-the-world.html
Saturday, October 14, 2017
GLOBAL ECONOMY OUTLOOK IS GOOD, ALSO GOOD FOR STOCKS
There is worry that the stock market is getting toppy and could have a sizable correction. One thing bolstering the stock market is that the global economy is on the rise and, of course, many U.S. companies are multinational and should be able to take advantage of this rise.* Thus, in contrast, there are also those who say that this bull market may have more to run.** One thing that sort of reassures me is that in setting new all-time highs in this century, the S&P 500 has changed to creeping higher rather than boldly moving higher as happened in the 1980s and 1990s. See the figure from the reference:*
(Click on figure to enlarge)
My guess is that the current trend will continue. I wrote earlier in this year that I thought the stock market would creep higher and that is what it is doing so long as the president leaves the economy alone. The president temporarily talked down aircraft manufacturers, but they have recovered in spades. Investors are always skittish. I think Boeing is one of the best performing stock this year.
The health care stocks were hit on Friday the 13th by the president changing the rules on the ACA. In toto, however, health care stocks have recovered nicely from a bad 2016. I'm not sure he can do this because the subsidies he is removing are in the law. Whether the current decrease in the value of healthcare stocks is temporary, remains to be seen. They started to drop before Friday the 13th that may have been in anticipation of the president's actions.
The IMF upgraded its global economic growth forecast for this year by a tenth of a percentage point to a 3.6 percent annual growth rate, compared with its last report in July. For next year, the IMF expects the world economy to grow at a 3.7 percent annual growth rate. The improved outlook was driven by stronger numbers on global trade, investment and consumer confidence.*
The hurricanes are not expected to impact corporate earning much.
** http://www.barrons.com/articles/who-says-this-stock-market-is-overpriced-1507956689
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/20/fed-says-hurricanes-will-have-no-lasting-economic-impact.html
My guess is that the current trend will continue. I wrote earlier in this year that I thought the stock market would creep higher and that is what it is doing so long as the president leaves the economy alone. The president temporarily talked down aircraft manufacturers, but they have recovered in spades. Investors are always skittish. I think Boeing is one of the best performing stock this year.
The health care stocks were hit on Friday the 13th by the president changing the rules on the ACA. In toto, however, health care stocks have recovered nicely from a bad 2016. I'm not sure he can do this because the subsidies he is removing are in the law. Whether the current decrease in the value of healthcare stocks is temporary, remains to be seen. They started to drop before Friday the 13th that may have been in anticipation of the president's actions.
The IMF upgraded its global economic growth forecast for this year by a tenth of a percentage point to a 3.6 percent annual growth rate, compared with its last report in July. For next year, the IMF expects the world economy to grow at a 3.7 percent annual growth rate. The improved outlook was driven by stronger numbers on global trade, investment and consumer confidence.*
The hurricanes are not expected to impact corporate earning much.
"Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria have devastated many communities, inflicting severe hardship," the post-meeting statement said. "Storm-related disruptions and rebuilding will affect economic activity in the near term, but past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term."
New York Fed President William Dudley recently suggested that the ultimate impact of the storms actually could be a modest boost to the economy due to rebuilding activity. The "broken windows" economic theory has its detractors, but Dudley is not alone in suggesting that storm rebuilding results in some growth.***
* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/13/want-to-know-where-stocks-are-headed-keep-an-eye-on-the-global-economy.html** http://www.barrons.com/articles/who-says-this-stock-market-is-overpriced-1507956689
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/20/fed-says-hurricanes-will-have-no-lasting-economic-impact.html
Thursday, October 12, 2017
REX TILLERSON
On the surface of it, it seemed like a good idea to get the recently retired (age 65) both Chairman and CEO of Exxon Mobile (stock symbol XOM)* to be Secretary Of State (It has become common for one person to hold both positions.). It is the largest U.S. oil company with a world-wide span so he had a lot of experience of dealing with foreign leaders and had, at least met, many of them.
But what they had not taken into account was that Tillerson retired from being equivalent to a Head Of State whereas the President was maybe wealthier but was head of a "Mom and Pop" real estate company (with no Mom). In more graphic terms, it was like having a General work for a Sargent. It wasn't preordained to failure, but it is tricky. It got off on the wrong foot Early on there was trouble when Tillerson was not allowed to pick his own Deputy, a position I assume is currently being held by an Acting-Deputy Civil Servant.
Even by October 2017, only one of six Deputy Secretaries is filled (two are listed as vacant, i.e. not even an acting person in the position); only three of six Under Secretaries are occupied: two of the 24 Assistant Secretary positions were filled and both of those by holdovers,** surprisingly. Only six of 10 positions equivalent to Assistant Secretary have been selected. Because the President wants to downsize the Department of State, I doubt the open positions (acting or vacant) will be filled. I assume the offices of the positions listed as vacant are actually dissolved, but what happened to the staffs? Have they been redistributed?
Tillerson is not communicative. For me to know what is going on in negotiations between countries is not important, but he has also not communicated to the State Department staff about what is going on with the reorganization. At any rate, reports are that he is unpopular with the staff and some "experts" say he is the worst Secretary of State ever. It is said he didn't want the job in the first place, but that his wife said it was his patriotic duty. Others say he is determined to master the job. So there you have it.
The Secretary of Defense, the Chief of Staff plus Tillerson, however, are said to what is keeping our nation from complete chaos. (e.g. Sen. Corker). I find it interesting that the National Security Adviser to the President is not included in the group. I don't know what that means - though it appears he is considered ineffective?
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rex_Tillerson
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Assistant_Secretary_of_State
But what they had not taken into account was that Tillerson retired from being equivalent to a Head Of State whereas the President was maybe wealthier but was head of a "Mom and Pop" real estate company (with no Mom). In more graphic terms, it was like having a General work for a Sargent. It wasn't preordained to failure, but it is tricky. It got off on the wrong foot Early on there was trouble when Tillerson was not allowed to pick his own Deputy, a position I assume is currently being held by an Acting-Deputy Civil Servant.
Even by October 2017, only one of six Deputy Secretaries is filled (two are listed as vacant, i.e. not even an acting person in the position); only three of six Under Secretaries are occupied: two of the 24 Assistant Secretary positions were filled and both of those by holdovers,** surprisingly. Only six of 10 positions equivalent to Assistant Secretary have been selected. Because the President wants to downsize the Department of State, I doubt the open positions (acting or vacant) will be filled. I assume the offices of the positions listed as vacant are actually dissolved, but what happened to the staffs? Have they been redistributed?
Tillerson is not communicative. For me to know what is going on in negotiations between countries is not important, but he has also not communicated to the State Department staff about what is going on with the reorganization. At any rate, reports are that he is unpopular with the staff and some "experts" say he is the worst Secretary of State ever. It is said he didn't want the job in the first place, but that his wife said it was his patriotic duty. Others say he is determined to master the job. So there you have it.
The Secretary of Defense, the Chief of Staff plus Tillerson, however, are said to what is keeping our nation from complete chaos. (e.g. Sen. Corker). I find it interesting that the National Security Adviser to the President is not included in the group. I don't know what that means - though it appears he is considered ineffective?
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rex_Tillerson
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Assistant_Secretary_of_State
Monday, October 9, 2017
SEX AND POWERFUL MEN
Do you get the impression that we have entered a new age? It seems like the days are gone when powerful men , ah, "ask" women for favors to achieve something.
Think of what has gone on even this year. There has been the ascension of a sexual predator to the Presidency,* Bill Cosby, the male Venture Capital sex scandal,** the sex scandals at Fox News (esp. Roger Ailes and Bill O'Reilly),*** the Harvey Weinstein sex scandal**** and we are only in October. Of course these are only the most lurid cases, and there are many others. We are only seeing the tip of the iceberg.In the past, there are also our presidents like Roosevelt who had a mistress while he was president, plus womanizers who have "IT" like Kennedy, and, of course, Bill Clinton. We didn't know about Roosevelt and Kennedy until after they were dead.
One of scandal of note is the anti-abortion Repub. congressman Tim Murphy case who urged his mistress to get an abortion (http://nypost.com/2017/10/05/anti-abortion-congressman-caught-in-sex-scandal-wont-seek-reelection/). This is more funny than anything because there is no indication the mistress was forced to be a mistress.
The idea is going around that that men knowing to be womanizers should have their political donations returned. What they don't seem to realize is that most large political donations by men would have to be returned.
Some men run scared of being accused of a sexual harassment (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/09/upshot/as-sexual-harassment-scandals-spook-men-it-can-backfire-for-women.html). I know because when I was in a stage of my career and was the first- or second-line supervisor of 120 to 140 people (depending on the number of temps), I ran scared. I used to have my administrative assistant (a woman) in the office when I was interviewing or having to discipline a woman employee. As it was three times in five years I was accused of sex discrimination (but not harassment). I managed to survive these. Of a different note, I was accused of "gross misuse of trust" by the safety officer for not shown monthly safety movies to my employees. This was right after I had received the Safety Manager Of The Year Award! I won't go into the details because this is a side issue of this post, but I began to feel like big Julie, the guy in Guys and Dolls, who said he was a law abiding citizen, "... as has been proved by my record: Thirty-three arrests and no convictions!."
Sexual harassment is something I never approved of because in my youth I had a very tight moral code; still, I can think of incidents where I might have been accused of sexual harassment. I write some more about this in my piece "Some Men Have It, Most Don't" (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/some-men-have-it-most-dont.html). Women never seemed to have any qualms about telling me to get lost. But then I not only did not have ""IT" but was not a powerful man.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_sexual_misconduct_allegations
** https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2017/06/30/venture-capital-sexual-harassment-scandal/103336512/
*** http://www.newsweek.com/new-allegations-emerge-heres-rundown-fox-news-sex-and-harassment-scandals-646950
**** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/08/harvey-weinstein-fired-by-weinstein-company-board.html
Think of what has gone on even this year. There has been the ascension of a sexual predator to the Presidency,* Bill Cosby, the male Venture Capital sex scandal,** the sex scandals at Fox News (esp. Roger Ailes and Bill O'Reilly),*** the Harvey Weinstein sex scandal**** and we are only in October. Of course these are only the most lurid cases, and there are many others. We are only seeing the tip of the iceberg.In the past, there are also our presidents like Roosevelt who had a mistress while he was president, plus womanizers who have "IT" like Kennedy, and, of course, Bill Clinton. We didn't know about Roosevelt and Kennedy until after they were dead.
One of scandal of note is the anti-abortion Repub. congressman Tim Murphy case who urged his mistress to get an abortion (http://nypost.com/2017/10/05/anti-abortion-congressman-caught-in-sex-scandal-wont-seek-reelection/). This is more funny than anything because there is no indication the mistress was forced to be a mistress.
The idea is going around that that men knowing to be womanizers should have their political donations returned. What they don't seem to realize is that most large political donations by men would have to be returned.
Some men run scared of being accused of a sexual harassment (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/09/upshot/as-sexual-harassment-scandals-spook-men-it-can-backfire-for-women.html). I know because when I was in a stage of my career and was the first- or second-line supervisor of 120 to 140 people (depending on the number of temps), I ran scared. I used to have my administrative assistant (a woman) in the office when I was interviewing or having to discipline a woman employee. As it was three times in five years I was accused of sex discrimination (but not harassment). I managed to survive these. Of a different note, I was accused of "gross misuse of trust" by the safety officer for not shown monthly safety movies to my employees. This was right after I had received the Safety Manager Of The Year Award! I won't go into the details because this is a side issue of this post, but I began to feel like big Julie, the guy in Guys and Dolls, who said he was a law abiding citizen, "... as has been proved by my record: Thirty-three arrests and no convictions!."
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_sexual_misconduct_allegations
** https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2017/06/30/venture-capital-sexual-harassment-scandal/103336512/
*** http://www.newsweek.com/new-allegations-emerge-heres-rundown-fox-news-sex-and-harassment-scandals-646950
**** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/08/harvey-weinstein-fired-by-weinstein-company-board.html
Sunday, October 8, 2017
HOW LONG WILL THE HUMAN SPECIES LAST?
Earlier this year in June I published a piece called "What Is The Meaning Of Life?" In this article I said that the meaning is: I have thought about this question a great deal and have decided that the meaning of human life is that we are a gigantic experiment by Nature to see if an animal capable of rational thought can survive, and I believe the jury is still out.*
Much to my surprise there is now an article by a statistician - J. Richard Gott - who gives an estimate of when humanity will become extict:
Assuming that you and I are not so special as to be born at either the dawn of a very long-lasting human civilization or the twilight years of a short-lived one, we can apply Gott's 95 percent confidence formula to arrive at an estimate of when the human race will go extinct: between 5,100 and 7.8 million years from now.**
...........................................................................
Much to my surprise there is now an article by a statistician - J. Richard Gott - who gives an estimate of when humanity will become extict:
Assuming that you and I are not so special as to be born at either the dawn of a very long-lasting human civilization or the twilight years of a short-lived one, we can apply Gott's 95 percent confidence formula to arrive at an estimate of when the human race will go extinct: between 5,100 and 7.8 million years from now.**
...........................................................................
Interestingly, Gott's Copernican estimate for human life is in line with what we know of species' life spans from the fossil record. Mammalian species typically last around 1 million years before going extinct. You could argue that our species' intelligence gives us a survival edge over say, a mastodon or a rabbit, which could make us more likely to beat those odds.
But as Gott points out, our Neanderthal ancestors were around for only 300,000 years, while Homo erectus survived for about 1.6 million. They were smarter than the animals around them, but from a longevity standpoint they were completely unremarkable. Why should we be any different? Why should we be special?**
I'll give this the name of Gott's Estimate, that is at 95% probability, It looks good to me. We'll see if it is true. There may be a nuclear war but some of hunaity will probably survive but in a weakened condition. As I pinted out:
While humans being have been around for 6 million years, sounds like a long time, there are many animals that have lived far longer: Sturgeons have been around nearly 200 m.y. (million years) (but we may drive them to extinction), Lampreys and Coelacanths have been around about 360 m.y., Horseshoe Crab has survived for 445 m.y., Jellyfish 505 m.y., and the record goes to the Sponge that has been around for 769 m.y. Yes, human beings have a long way to go to compete with animals with the longest histories.*
While humans being have been around for 6 million years, sounds like a long time, there are many animals that have lived far longer: Sturgeons have been around nearly 200 m.y. (million years) (but we may drive them to extinction), Lampreys and Coelacanths have been around about 360 m.y., Horseshoe Crab has survived for 445 m.y., Jellyfish 505 m.y., and the record goes to the Sponge that has been around for 769 m.y. Yes, human beings have a long way to go to compete with animals with the longest histories.*
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/06/what-is-meaning-of-life.html
** https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/10/06/we-have-a-pretty-good-idea-of-when-humans-will-go-extinct/?tid=hybrid_experimentrandom_1_na&utm_term=.cd7d51a37b7c
Friday, October 6, 2017
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING AND RETAIL SURVIVAL -2017
Construction spending is the highest since 2004, well before the Financial Armageddon (Great Recession) of 2008-2009. this continues the good news about the economy.. following are some quotes from CNBC:
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity surged to a reading of 60.8 last month, the highest reading since May 2004, from 58.8 in August.
.....................................................................
In August, spending on private residential projects increased 0.4 percent, rising for a fourth straight month. Spending on nonresidential structures [e.g oil and gas wells, state and local government] increased 0.5 percent, snapping two straight monthly declines.*
Spemding on Federal construction projects continued to decline.
(Click on figure to enlarge. See reference.*)
As for small business retail:
So what's the answer for small businesses trying to survive in the Age of Amazon? Focus on coexisting with the online retail giant instead of competing. After all, with 92 percent of retail sales still happening in brick-and-mortar stores, these small and local retailers have a huge opportunity to maintain and grow their business by keeping shoppers buying local.**
The CNN report on small business says that 45% pof small businesses don't have a web site.**
According to a survey done by BrightLocal, "74 percent of consumers say that positive reviews make them trust a local business more."** "If you can't beat them, join them?" If your products are the types of things that are sellable in Amazon's environment (i.e. consumer products, more modes price points, easy to understand and merchandise digitally), joining the Amazon marketplace can be extremely helpful for growing your business and getting your feet wet in e-commerce. If you are going to sell ... through a third party like Amazon, adopt shipping and return procedures and plan for the changes among staff and business process that go along with it. Is your business prepared to take on these initiatives? If so, this is something to think about as you look to attract more digital shoppers.**
Still:
Eighteen percent of U.S. retail ratings are in the CCC range, as the industry continues to grapple with increased competition, changing shopping patterns and steep discounts to attract shoppers. A CCC rating indicates that an obligation is vulnerable to nonpayment and that the ability to pay the obligation could hinge on whether business conditions are favorable. ***
Examples of bankruptcy filings are: Toys-Are-Us, Radio Shack, The Limited, Payless ShoeSource, and Vitamin World****
* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/02/september-ism-manufacturing-index-august-construction-spending.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/02/how-main-street-usa-can-survive-amazon-age.html
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/02/stressed-retail-industry-plunging-deeper-into-junk-territory-sp-says.html
**** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/23/here-are-the-retailers-that-filed-for-bankruptcy-protection-in-2017.html
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity surged to a reading of 60.8 last month, the highest reading since May 2004, from 58.8 in August.
.....................................................................
In August, spending on private residential projects increased 0.4 percent, rising for a fourth straight month. Spending on nonresidential structures [e.g oil and gas wells, state and local government] increased 0.5 percent, snapping two straight monthly declines.*
Spemding on Federal construction projects continued to decline.
As for small business retail:
So what's the answer for small businesses trying to survive in the Age of Amazon? Focus on coexisting with the online retail giant instead of competing. After all, with 92 percent of retail sales still happening in brick-and-mortar stores, these small and local retailers have a huge opportunity to maintain and grow their business by keeping shoppers buying local.**
The CNN report on small business says that 45% pof small businesses don't have a web site.**
According to a survey done by BrightLocal, "74 percent of consumers say that positive reviews make them trust a local business more."** "If you can't beat them, join them?" If your products are the types of things that are sellable in Amazon's environment (i.e. consumer products, more modes price points, easy to understand and merchandise digitally), joining the Amazon marketplace can be extremely helpful for growing your business and getting your feet wet in e-commerce. If you are going to sell ... through a third party like Amazon, adopt shipping and return procedures and plan for the changes among staff and business process that go along with it. Is your business prepared to take on these initiatives? If so, this is something to think about as you look to attract more digital shoppers.**
Still:
Eighteen percent of U.S. retail ratings are in the CCC range, as the industry continues to grapple with increased competition, changing shopping patterns and steep discounts to attract shoppers. A CCC rating indicates that an obligation is vulnerable to nonpayment and that the ability to pay the obligation could hinge on whether business conditions are favorable. ***
Examples of bankruptcy filings are: Toys-Are-Us, Radio Shack, The Limited, Payless ShoeSource, and Vitamin World****
* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/02/september-ism-manufacturing-index-august-construction-spending.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/02/how-main-street-usa-can-survive-amazon-age.html
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/02/stressed-retail-industry-plunging-deeper-into-junk-territory-sp-says.html
**** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/23/here-are-the-retailers-that-filed-for-bankruptcy-protection-in-2017.html
Thursday, October 5, 2017
OPTIMISM ON THE U.S. ECONOMY
Our president has kept his hands off the economy so far, and the outlook continues to be very good. Even the public is progressively getting optimistic. We already are in the 3rd longest economic recovery ever at 100 months (begun June 2009) and bearing down on the 2nd longest.
The third-quarter CNBC All-America Economic Survey found 43 percent of the public believes the economy is excellent or good, a record high in the 10-year history of the survey. Thirty-six percent believes the economy will get better, down a couple of points from last quarter, but just 23 percent say it will get worse, down 6 points.*
Let's hope the president manages to mess up his tax plan. like he did with repealing and replacing Obamacare. I do think it might be worth it to lower the maximum corporate tax rate some, possibly to 25% or maybe the 22% suggested by some; however, going to 15% is ridiculous.
To keep track, the 2nd longest economic expansion was for 106 months from February 1961 to December 1969 (Kennedy-Johnson).** The longest was 120 months from March 1991 to March 2001 (Bush-42 - Clinton). Assuming the president and congress don't mess it up, the present recovery should become the 2nd longest about next April.
Added later: The Manufacturer's Index is the best since 2004 and the Seivices Index the best since 2005.*** But (quote in italics)
Regardless, what's clear is stocks are very overbought. How overbought? The relative strength indicator (RSI), a widely watched momentum indicator of stock movements in the last several weeks, has the Russell 2000, industrials, financials and energy sectors all with an RSI over 90. That is WAY overbought. Readings below 40 are considered oversold, anything over 70 is overbought, and over 90? ***
* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/03/american-optimism-about-the-economy-fails-to-lift-trumps-approval-ratings.html
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_economic_expansions_in_the_United_States
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/05/tax-cuts-fueling-the-market-melt-up-but-signs-show-stocks-are-way-overbought.html
The third-quarter CNBC All-America Economic Survey found 43 percent of the public believes the economy is excellent or good, a record high in the 10-year history of the survey. Thirty-six percent believes the economy will get better, down a couple of points from last quarter, but just 23 percent say it will get worse, down 6 points.*
Let's hope the president manages to mess up his tax plan. like he did with repealing and replacing Obamacare. I do think it might be worth it to lower the maximum corporate tax rate some, possibly to 25% or maybe the 22% suggested by some; however, going to 15% is ridiculous.
To keep track, the 2nd longest economic expansion was for 106 months from February 1961 to December 1969 (Kennedy-Johnson).** The longest was 120 months from March 1991 to March 2001 (Bush-42 - Clinton). Assuming the president and congress don't mess it up, the present recovery should become the 2nd longest about next April.
Added later: The Manufacturer's Index is the best since 2004 and the Seivices Index the best since 2005.*** But (quote in italics)
Regardless, what's clear is stocks are very overbought. How overbought? The relative strength indicator (RSI), a widely watched momentum indicator of stock movements in the last several weeks, has the Russell 2000, industrials, financials and energy sectors all with an RSI over 90. That is WAY overbought. Readings below 40 are considered oversold, anything over 70 is overbought, and over 90? ***
* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/03/american-optimism-about-the-economy-fails-to-lift-trumps-approval-ratings.html
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_economic_expansions_in_the_United_States
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/05/tax-cuts-fueling-the-market-melt-up-but-signs-show-stocks-are-way-overbought.html
Wednesday, October 4, 2017
WHEN DID I GIVE UP ON GUN CONTROL?
After the Las Vegas shooting massacre last Sunday, I wondered when I gave up on gun control? I concluded it was when over 80% of those polled were for background checks and congress shot down the legislation on it.*
I've published a lot on guns and have listed 17 posts below.** Though I have included a few that mention guns tangentially, I have also omitted a few.
These mass murders constitute only a small fraction of the gun deaths in a year in the U.S. and don't happen very often which is their attraction, I guess. It has been 22 months since the San Bernardino event and 5 yrs since Sandy hook. The TV news media loves these things. MSNBC spent the whole day in saturation coverage on the Las Vega story preempting all their normal programming. Newspapers were better.
Gun deaths from murders, suicides, and accidents approximate the number of automobile deaths in a year and we have accepted both as a routine cost of living in the US.
Gun violence in the United States results in tens of thousands of deaths and injuries annually.[1] In 2013, there were 73,505 nonfatal firearm injuries (23.2 injuries per 100,000 U.S. citizens),[2][3] and 33,636 deaths due to "injury by firearms" (10.6 deaths per 100,000 U.S. citizens).[4] These deaths consisted of 11,208 homicides,[5] 21,175 suicides,[4] 505 deaths due to accidental or negligent discharge of a firearm, and 281 deaths due to firearms use with "undetermined intent".[4] Of the 2,596,993 total deaths in the US in 2013, 1.3% were related to firearms.***
(Click on figure to enlarge. See Wikipedia for article.***)
I only publish this item because it is a new variation on a theme.. First of all, is the shooter's age - 64- that is unusual. Second is the extreme measures he took in setting up his attempt complete with surveillance cameras and 29 guns! It is obvious he did not just "snap." He reserved a corner room in a hotel on the 32nd floor. He had to break out the windows of the room to fire his weapons. I'm surprised someone didn't hear the falling glass as the holes are quite large so a lot of glass fell. Lastly, the terrorist not only used semi-automatic weapons but modified them with something called a "bumper stock"*** to simulate an automatic weapon. Apparently this bumper stock can be bought easily for as little as $40, but $99**** is what I found Googling. He also sent his girlfriend out of the country and then wired her $100,000. This was a well thought out plan.
(Click on figure to enlarge. See Wikipedia for article.***)
Well, we are not going to give up our guns anymore than we are likely to give up our automobiles. Interestingly, Australia is a country that did give up many of their guns.
Uniform legislation agreed to by all states and territories -- the national government has no control over gun ownership or use -- specifically addressed mass shootings: Rapid-fire rifles and shotguns were banned, gun owner licensing was tightened and remaining firearms were registered to uniform national standards.
In two nationwide, federally funded gun buybacks, plus large-scale voluntary surrenders and state gun amnesties both before and after Port Arthur, Australia collected and destroyed more than a million firearms, perhaps a third of the national stock, according to Professor Philip Alpers of the University of Sydney, who is editor of gunpolicy.org. No other nation had attempted anything on this scale. The national government also banned the importation of new automatic and semiautomatic weapons. And the buyback was paid for by a special one-off tax on all Australians. (http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/world/us-australia-gun-control/index.html)
Estimates are that there are 300 million guns in America. All the Federal and state legislation since the Sandy Hook massacre has been to loosen gun laws.
* http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/gun-background-checks-house-234564
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/04/number-senators-voted-against-background-checks-proposal/
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/01/death-and-injuries-by-guns-in-us.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/07/guns-guns-guns-again-again-again.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/09/let-me-see-if-ive-got-this-right.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/02/actually-guns-do-kill-people.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/10/deaths-from-domestic-and-foreign-causes.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/12/can-he-hold-out.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/04/prey-animals-and-predator-animals.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/07/what-about-8000-others.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/01/us-has-most-of-everything-including.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/06/guns-and-illegal-terrorists-in-america.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/12/selective-polling.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/04/trumps-first-100-days-legislation.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/03/see-what-he-does.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/02/stock-price-outlook-for-2017.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/11/usa-nation-of-scaredy-cats.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/05/if-i-had-to-have-republican-president.htm
*** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States
**** http://www.slidefire.com/l
https://www.gunsamerica.com/blog/bumpfire-systems-stock-review-video/
I've published a lot on guns and have listed 17 posts below.** Though I have included a few that mention guns tangentially, I have also omitted a few.
These mass murders constitute only a small fraction of the gun deaths in a year in the U.S. and don't happen very often which is their attraction, I guess. It has been 22 months since the San Bernardino event and 5 yrs since Sandy hook. The TV news media loves these things. MSNBC spent the whole day in saturation coverage on the Las Vega story preempting all their normal programming. Newspapers were better.
Gun deaths from murders, suicides, and accidents approximate the number of automobile deaths in a year and we have accepted both as a routine cost of living in the US.
Gun violence in the United States results in tens of thousands of deaths and injuries annually.[1] In 2013, there were 73,505 nonfatal firearm injuries (23.2 injuries per 100,000 U.S. citizens),[2][3] and 33,636 deaths due to "injury by firearms" (10.6 deaths per 100,000 U.S. citizens).[4] These deaths consisted of 11,208 homicides,[5] 21,175 suicides,[4] 505 deaths due to accidental or negligent discharge of a firearm, and 281 deaths due to firearms use with "undetermined intent".[4] Of the 2,596,993 total deaths in the US in 2013, 1.3% were related to firearms.***
I only publish this item because it is a new variation on a theme.. First of all, is the shooter's age - 64- that is unusual. Second is the extreme measures he took in setting up his attempt complete with surveillance cameras and 29 guns! It is obvious he did not just "snap." He reserved a corner room in a hotel on the 32nd floor. He had to break out the windows of the room to fire his weapons. I'm surprised someone didn't hear the falling glass as the holes are quite large so a lot of glass fell. Lastly, the terrorist not only used semi-automatic weapons but modified them with something called a "bumper stock"*** to simulate an automatic weapon. Apparently this bumper stock can be bought easily for as little as $40, but $99**** is what I found Googling. He also sent his girlfriend out of the country and then wired her $100,000. This was a well thought out plan.
Well, we are not going to give up our guns anymore than we are likely to give up our automobiles. Interestingly, Australia is a country that did give up many of their guns.
Uniform legislation agreed to by all states and territories -- the national government has no control over gun ownership or use -- specifically addressed mass shootings: Rapid-fire rifles and shotguns were banned, gun owner licensing was tightened and remaining firearms were registered to uniform national standards.
In two nationwide, federally funded gun buybacks, plus large-scale voluntary surrenders and state gun amnesties both before and after Port Arthur, Australia collected and destroyed more than a million firearms, perhaps a third of the national stock, according to Professor Philip Alpers of the University of Sydney, who is editor of gunpolicy.org. No other nation had attempted anything on this scale. The national government also banned the importation of new automatic and semiautomatic weapons. And the buyback was paid for by a special one-off tax on all Australians. (http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/world/us-australia-gun-control/index.html)
Estimates are that there are 300 million guns in America. All the Federal and state legislation since the Sandy Hook massacre has been to loosen gun laws.
* http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/gun-background-checks-house-234564
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/04/number-senators-voted-against-background-checks-proposal/
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/01/death-and-injuries-by-guns-in-us.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/07/guns-guns-guns-again-again-again.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/09/let-me-see-if-ive-got-this-right.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/02/actually-guns-do-kill-people.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/10/deaths-from-domestic-and-foreign-causes.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/12/can-he-hold-out.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/04/prey-animals-and-predator-animals.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/07/what-about-8000-others.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/01/us-has-most-of-everything-including.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/06/guns-and-illegal-terrorists-in-america.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/12/selective-polling.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/04/trumps-first-100-days-legislation.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/03/see-what-he-does.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/02/stock-price-outlook-for-2017.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/11/usa-nation-of-scaredy-cats.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/05/if-i-had-to-have-republican-president.htm
*** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States
**** http://www.slidefire.com/l
https://www.gunsamerica.com/blog/bumpfire-systems-stock-review-video/
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