EVEN MORE ECONOMIC GOOD NEWS - GDP 2ND QTR 2017

Glory be, but GDP is revised upward for the 2nd quarter of 2017 to 3.0%!*  Warren buffet, however, is a spoil sport and says that it doesn't feel like 3% to him, more like 2%..**

Gross domestic product increased at a 3.0 percent annual rate in the April-June period, the Commerce Department said in its second estimate on Wednesday. The upward revision from the 2.6 percent pace reported last month reflected robust consumer spending as well as strong business investment.

Growth last quarter was the strongest since the first quarter of 2015 and followed a 1.2 percent pace in the January-March period. 

...........................................................................

Retail sales and business spending data so far suggest the economy maintained its stamina early in the third quarter. Other data [the ADP National Employment Report] on Wednesday showed private employers ramped up hiring in August, adding 237,000 jobs to their payrolls. That was up from 201,000 jobs in July.

Click on figure to enlarge)

Consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, grew at a 3.3 percent rate, the fastest in a year, reflecting more spending on motor vehicles, cellphones, housing and utilities than previously estimated.

That was revised up from the 2.8 percent pace reported in July and accounted for the bulk of the pickup in economic growth in the second quarter.

But stronger consumer spending came at the expense of saving amid sluggish wage gains. The saving rate slipped to 3.7 percent from 3.9 percent in the first quarter. The second-quarter saving rate was previously reported at 3.8 percent.

Households cannot, however, continue to rely on savings indefinitely to fund their consumption. This raises doubts on the sustainability of the robust pace of consumer spending.

* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/30/us-revised-second-quarter-gdp.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/30/warren-buffett-this-doesnt-feel-like-a-3-percent-gdp-economy.html

RATINGS AND THE WALL

The Washington Post has a feature called the Daily 202 that has very good discussions.  One on august 24th regards Trump's Border Wall Brinkmanship  May Leave Republicans In Congress Holding The Bag:

Everyone's image has taken a hit. Fabrizio reports that Trump's favorability rating has slipped from 78 percent among Republicans in June to 71 percent now. 

Trump's need to always say its someone else's fault seems to be working:

Ryan's favorability has dropped from 56 percent to 52 percent in that period. McConnell has slipped the most, however. The Kentucky senator was viewed favorably by 38 percent of Republicans and unfavorably by 30 percent in Fabrizio's June survey. Now he's viewed favorably by 27 percent and unfavorably by 44 percent. Again, this is among Republicans.

Trump's approval rating is 75 percent among Republicans in Fabrizio's poll, but just 54 percent approve of the job Republicans in Congress are doing.

Asked who they blame more for the failure to repeal and replace Obamacare, 18 percent picked Trump and 82 percent picked Republicans in Congress.*

Alas, Trump has given up on his joke that Mexico will pay for the border wall, but he really wants the wall as a monument to himself and it has little to do with his base.  When he addresses his rally now, he has to say "Who will eventually pay for the wall?"  the crowd can still yell back "Mexico" but it won't have the same ring.

-- Only about 1 in 3 Americans want to build the border wall, but they happen to be the same people who still support Trump. Even the right-wing polling firm Rasmussen, whose results skew Republican, found in an automated national poll last month that 56 percent of Americans oppose building a border wall "to help stop illegal immigration," while 37 percent back it. A more reliable survey from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center showed in February that 35 percent support the wall and 62 percent oppose it.*

McConnell continues the Republican orthodoxy that that they are trying to create jobs, but jobs are incidental to trying to grow the economy.

McConnell's statement mentioned a host of "shared goals" that he is in "regular touch" with the administration about, including the budget, but notably he omitted any mention of the border wall:  "We are working together to develop tax reform and infrastructure legislation so we can grow the economy and create jobs; to prevent a government default; to fund the government so we can advance our priorities in the short and long terms; to pass the defense authorization and defense appropriations bills so we can support our troops and help implement an effective strategy against ISIL; to provide relief from Obamacare; and to continue our progress for our nation's veterans."*

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/08/24/daily-202-trump-s-border-wall-brinkmanship-may-leave-republicans-in-congress-holding-the-bag/599e285130fb0435b8208fa7/?utm_term=.c1a2fca2a871

ELITES FIGHT BACK

In an August 21, 2017 article by James Hohmann  with Breanne Deppisch and Joanie Greve, "The elites Strike Back"Getting Under Trump's Skin" are the following quotes:

The growing number of groups canceling galas, stars boycotting ceremonies and chief executives resigning from advisory boards is further isolating Trump.
..............................................................................

Afraid of losing major contributors, a stampede of charities has canceled planned fundraising events at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida:

On Thursday, the Cleveland Clinic, American Cancer Society and American Friends of Magen David Adom pulled out.

On Friday, the Salvation Army, American Red Cross and Susan G. Komen joined them.

On Saturday, the Preservation Foundation of Palm Beach canceled its dinner dance that had been scheduled for next March. This alone probably represents a quarter-million in lost revenue.

On Sunday, the Palm Beach Zoo and an elder care organization called MorseLife both announced that they will not hold their annual fundraisers at Mar-a-Lago.

Both the Palm Beach Habilitation Center and the Kravis Center are calling emergency board meetings for early this week to discuss whether to keep their events at the club, per today’s Palm Beach Post.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/08/21/daily-202-the-elites-strike-back-getting-under-trump-s-skin/599a4e1230fb0435b8208f3a/?utm_term=.df1fcbb3079d

SHERIFF JOE

Once again President Trump supports a white supremacist in Sheriff Joe by pardoning him.  At least he is getting a lot of criticism for doing this from his Republican colleagues.  Republicans accept white supremacist votes, but it is not polite to vocally support them, just quietly throw them a bone now and then.  But I hope I am too cynical and that many of the critics really mean what they say.

Among those giving criticism are Senators John McCain (McSane?) and Jeff Flake, House Speaker  Paul Ryan, and John Kasich.  Sheriff Joe lost his last election big (13 points).


Speaking of prominent birthers, Trump also asked the crowd what they think of Arpaio. The former Maricopa County sheriff, who lost reelection last year, was recently convicted on criminal contempt charges related to racially profiling Hispanics even after a federal judge ordered him to cut it out. "So was Sheriff Joe convicted for doing his job?" Trump asked as the crowd cheered. "You know what, I'll make a prediction: I think he's going to be just fine, OK?"

Illustrating how off script Trump was, White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters asking about Arpaio just hours before the rally that "there will be no discussion of that today at any point"*

* http://webmailb.juno.com/webmail/new/5?session_redirect=true&userinfo=8b254f2f4f26b1dc56d8fe41da329a7b&count=1503766790&cf=sp&randid=935215862

ALL U.S. COUNTIES WILL BE COVERED BY ACA PLAN

Remember Republican politicians saying (with a sad look on face) that they will have so many counties that won't be covered by the ACA in 2018?

As many as 82 counties in states such as Tennessee, Nevada, Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin and Washington had appeared at risk of lacking any exchange coverage in 2018 after expected withdrawals by insurers, according to a tally by the Kaiser Family Foundation. * 

Well now that it looks like the ACA will live for another year, magically all counties in the U.S. will be covered by ACA.

For awhile there was one hold out - Paulding Co. in Ohio - but now even that is covered.  Oh the embarrassment of it all, being the ONLY counyt in the U.S. not to have heath care insurance.  What can the health be like in such a county to deserve that?   Does everyone have a pre-existing condition or what?

CareSource’s chief executive, Pamela Morris, said the decision “was the right thing to do as a mission-driven company.” CareSource was able to agree to offer exchange plans in Paulding County because it has a presence in a neighboring county in the adjacent state of Indiana and thus has a network of health-care providers there. Ms. Morris said CareSource, which offers exchange plans in four states, was “fully committed” to those marketplaces, despite uncertainty about federal decisions related to the health-law marketplaces.*

At any rate, the hero of the moment is a non-profit health  insurance company called CareSource.  Another company - Centene Corp. - has covered Nevada

Then the Republican politicians claim that so so-many counties have just one insurer.  Heck, here in North Carolina we have had just one insurer since the git go.  After alo, the state refused to construct its own plan and left it up to the Federal government.

The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation estimates that 1,448 counties now appear likely to have just one exchange insurer—nearly half of all U.S. counties—while another 1,013 are projected to have two. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, this year, 1,021 counties had one exchange insurer, while the figure was 225 in 2016. The counties with fewer insurers tend to be largely rural.

The expected shifts for next year also continue trends that have emerged over time in what types of companies are committing to the exchanges. Medicaid-focused insurers such as CareSource and Centene, which is planning to expand its marketplace offerings and has agreed to help fill bare counties in Missouri, as well as Nevada and other states, are increasingly central to many states’ exchanges. Blue Cross Blue Shield plans also remain the backbone of many states’ exchanges*.

Naturally if you leave it up to the insurance companies, they will try to limit competition so they have divided up the country to their advantage with each company having a monopoly in each state not covered by the state.  Its called "having a moat" or "high barrier to entry." and not the nasty word monopoly.

* https://www.wsj.com/articles/ohio-county-gets-affordable-care-act-coverage-ending-risk-of-marketplace-gap-1503591859

OH, WERE YOU GONE? (Biographical)

In case you haven't noticed, my last post was August 19th.  The problem was that the IRS decided to audit my 1959 income tax return.  The thing that bothered them was the claim of a large income deduction for alimony paid to my first wife by court order.  They want me to prove the court order.  It turns out that the divorce decree was in September 1989, nearly 28 years ago!

I have moved many times since then.  But it was my lucky day and it turned out that the divorce settlement was in the front of the first file I pulled!  I also have found my 1099 from the OPM (Office of Personnel Management) showing the court ordered deduction from my income.  I also found the annual OPM adjustment statement for 2017 showing the court ordered deduction.  The sums to my ex are directly paid to her by OPM and do not go though my hands so there is no problem with cashed checks. Whew!

I then took the opportunity to file things laying around that took a lot of time.  Well, now things are in pretty good shape.

PERSONAL DEBT

I have reproduced a large part of the CNBC reference below because I didn't know how to condense it.  The credit is all there's.

Americans have more debt than ever before. As of March 31st of this year, American households collectively held $12.73 trillion in debt, surpassing the record $12.68 trillion reached in 2008.*

Student Debt
      Federal

If you are unable to make a payment on your federal
student loan by its due date, you have a 270 day grace
period in which to pay. Every payment you miss will hurt
your credit score and impact your ability to borrow in
the future.

Once this period is over, your debt goes into default and
the federal government is able to garnish your wages, 
Social Security check and federal tax refund. Federal 
student debt is typically handed over to third-party 
collection agencies who charge penalties and fees —
 as much as 18 percent of the balance.*

       Private
"The only remedy that a private lender has is to sue 
you, and they are suingyou under state law
and every state differs."*

Medical Debt
It's important to pay off medical bills as quickly as possible in order to protect your credit score. Insurance companies have been known to sue individuals for not paying medical bills, and 99.4 percent of medical debt is reported by third-party collection agencies who can be particularly aggressive.*
.............................................................................
If the claim does not have an error, experts suggest that you negotiate with your medical provider. Doctors can provide discounts for patients who are unable to make payments and some medical providers will offer financial aid options for low-income patients.

Housing Debt

According to GoBankingRates, "If you miss your 
first mortgage payment, your lender will typically 
offer you a grace period of 15 days. During these 15 
days, you can send in your payment without being 
considered delinquent."

When this grace period is over, you will likely face a late 
fee as high as 2 to 5 percent of the monthly payment 
amount on your mortgage.

If you miss a second payment, your mortgage will likely 
go into default. At this point, the U.S. Department of 
Housing and Urban Development suggests that
borrowers take advantage of free housing counseling
 programs.

After 90 days, you will likely be served a Demand Letter 
indicating you are delinquent on your loan. This is your
 last chance to make a payment on your mortgage.

After missing four mortgage payments, the foreclosure 
process typically begins. During this process, you have 
the right to remain in your home. The lender will submit 
a Notice of Default followed by a Notice of Sale. Within 
21 days of the Notice of Sale, the house will be put up 
for auction, at which point you must vacate.

If you home is foreclosed, your credit score will be 
severely damaged, but you will not likely face legal 
repercussions.*

Auto Debt

Auto loan balances grew by $10 billion in 2016 
according to the Federal Reserve Board.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau explains 
that if you miss payments on an auto lease, the 
consequences are dependent on your specific contract.
 If you miss a payment on your auto loan, you will likely 
receive a Notice of Missed Payment within a few weeks.

Depending on the specifics of your situation, your lessor 
is then allowed to repossess your car so long as it does 
not "breach the peace." The definition of this legal term
 varies by state, but generally means your car cannot be
 taken through physical force — if your car is in your 
garage, the lessor cannot remove it from your home.

A lessor can, however, use a Starter Interrupt Device 
(SID), which remotely deactivates a vehicle's ignition 
system. Many states have found that remotely disabling 
a vehicle does not "breach the peace."

Your contract and state law may give you the right to 
"cure," or reinstate, your lease after you have missed 
a payment. Check with your state attorney general or
 consumer protection office to see if you have this right.

If your car is repossessed, you may face a hefty 
termination fee and your credit score will be damaged .* 

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/10/heres-what-happens-if-you-dont-pay-off-the-most-common-types-of-debt.html?recirc=taboolainternal

ECONOMY: CONSUMER SENTIMENT, RETAIL SALES, UNEMPLOYMENT

The economy purred along in July

Consumer sentiment increases in August early august:
The consumer sentiment index, a survey of consumers by The University of Michigan, rose to 97.6 in August. Economists estimated the index would increase to 94.
..............................................................
The index measures 500 consumers' attitudes in future economic prospects, in areas such as personal finances, inflation, unemployment, government policies and interest rates.*

Retail Sales
In the retail sales report, online sales were positive, up 1.3 percent, or 11.4 percent annually, about in line with recent months despite an expected kick from Amazon's Prime Day in July, Swonk said. Department stores however did better than expected, up 1 percent but still down for the year. Amazon's self proclaimed shopping holiday in July was met by in store and online promotions by many other retailers.**.

Meanwhile, industrial production was up a bit in July

Industrial production—a measure of everything made by factories, mines and utilities—grew 0.2% in July from a month earlier, the Federal Reserve said Thursday. Economists had expected a 0.3% increase.

Mining and utility output climbed steadily, but a slowdown in factory output suggested underlying softness in the economy. Factory output fell 0.1%, the second monthly decline in three months. Production of vehicles and parts fell sharply, outweighing a rise in the production of other goods.

...........................................................................
Capacity use, a measure of slack across industries, was flat at 76.7%.***

Unemployment Claims
Unemployment claims as claims/100,000 workers is a new record because of the increase in employment since 1970.
It was the 128th week that claims remained below 300,000, a threshold associated with a robust labor market. That is the longest such stretch since 1970, when the labor market was smaller. The unemployment rate is 4.3 percent.****
......................................................................................

The survey's measure of new orders surged to 20.4 from 2.1 in July. Firms also reported that shipments continued to rise.

As a result, workers put in more hours. The average workweek index increased to 18.8 in August from 3.8 in the prior month.

A third report from the Fed showed manufacturing output fell 0.1 percent in July as the production of motor vehicles and parts tumbled 3.6 percent.****

Youth Summer Unemployment
I don't recall seeing any information on national youth unemployment before:

The unemployment rate among young Americans fell this summer to match the lowest level in nearly a half-century.

The jobless rate for Americans between 16 and 24 years old fell to 9.6% in July from 11.5% a year earlier, the Labor Department said Wednesday. The rate reflects those actively seeking but unable to find a job.

Last month’s figure, while more than double the rate for all adults, matched July 2000 as the lowest midsummer jobless number since 1969. But the historically low rate comes with a big caveat: A far smaller share of young people are seeking summer jobs than in decades past.****

* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/18/august-us-consumer-sentiment.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/15/consumers-are-shopping-showing-economy-may-be-stronger-than-expected.html
*** https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-industrial-output-up-modestly-in-july-1502975099
**** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/17/us-weekly-jobless-claims-aug-12-2017.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/summer-youth-unemployment-falls-to-lowest-level-since-1969-1502899458

SOLAR ENERGY - 2017

The development of solar energy continues its parabolic increase.

(Click on figure to enlarge)

I include the figure below because it shows no new coal mines introduced for energy for two years (2015-2016) and a very small number in 20014

http://webmailb.juno.com/webmail/new/5?session_redirect=true&userinfo=8b254f2f4f26b1dc56d8fe41da329a7b&count=1502898396&cf=sp&randid=1380375327
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/15/business/energy-environment/solar-trade-tariffs-imports.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/us-solar-market-grows-95-in-2016-smashes-records

WOULD ROBERT E. LEE HAVE APPROVED?

First of all, did the Unite The Right Group (White Separatists such as KKK and antisemites_and others who want to Take Our Country Back Again) have a permit for the demonstration at Emancipation Park where the statue of Robert E. Lee has stood only since the 1920s?  Actually they did not.  Their permit was only for the demonstration to be held at McIntyre Park.  They wanted it at Emancipation Park because of the "symbolism of the Robert E. Lee statue."

The organizers have a profound misunderstanding of Robert E. Lee.  He actually was against secession.  He only agreed to side with the South if Virginia was attacked.  Obviously Lee was conflicted.  I find it interesting that though Lee was loyal to the Union and didn't want to see it broken up, he was more loyal to Virginia.

So far as I can tell, Lee never owned slaves himself.  His wife Mary Anna Randolph Custis, who came from a very wealthy family, is said to have had 2 or 3 house slaves.  When his wife's father died (George Washington Parke Custis), Lee took over the job of executing the will that included freeing Custis's many slaves after five years.  This he did in a conflicted manner (please see the reference for details.*).

When Texas seceded from the Union in February 1861, ... Lee went back to Washington and was appointed Colonel of the First Regiment of Cavalry in March 1861. Lee's colonelcy was signed by the new President, Abraham Lincoln. Three weeks after his promotion, Colonel Lee was offered a senior command (with the rank of Major General) in the expanding Army to fight the Southern States that had left the Union.*
.......................................................................

A key source cited by defenders and critics is Lee's 1856 letter to his wife:^[68]

... In this enlightened age, there are few I believe, but what will acknowledge, that slavery as an institution, is a moral & political evil in any Country. It is useless to expatiate on its disadvantages. I think it however a greater evil to the white man than to the black race, & while my feelings are strongly enlisted in behalf of the latter, my sympathies are more strong for the former. The blacks are immeasurably better off here than in Africa, morally, socially & physically. The painful discipline they are undergoing, is necessary for their instruction as a race, & I hope will prepare & lead them to better things. How long their subjugation may be necessary is known & ordered by a wise Merciful Providence.

— Robert E. Lee, to Mary Anna Lee, December 27, 1856*

Would Robert E. Lee have approved of what happened in Charlottesville, at the University of Virginia?  A resounding NO.  After the war, Lee became the president of Washington University (later renamed Washington and Lee University)
In his public statements and private correspondence, Lee argued that a tone of reconciliation and patience would further the interests of white Southerners better than hotheaded antagonism to federal authority or the use of violence. Lee repeatedly expelled white students from Washington College for violent attacks on local black men, and publicly urged obedience to the authorities and respect for law and order.^[131] In 1869–70 he was a leader in successful efforts to establish state-funded schools for blacks.^[132] He privately chastised fellow ex-Confederates such as Jefferson Davis and Jubal Early for their frequent, angry responses to perceived Northern insults, writing in private to them as he had written to a magazine editor in 1865, that "It should be the object of all to avoid controversy, to allay passion, give full scope to reason and to every kindly feeling. By doing this and encouraging our citizens to engage in the duties of life with all their heart and mind, with a determination not to be turned aside by thoughts of the past and fears of the future, our country will not only be restored in material prosperity, but will be advanced in science, in virtue and in religion."^[133]*

The question might be raised whether it was right for anti-demonstrators  to block the way  of the Unite The Right Group?  Since the location the Unite The Right Group chose to congregate was not approved , perhaps one can respond yes.  We do have free speech in this country, no matter how disagreeable, but there are limits such as the case of yelling "FIRE" in a crowded theater.

Many, many of the Unite The Right Group came fully prepared for battle with helmets, military uniforms, shields, and arms (Virginia is a Right to Carry State).  One group also wore body amour.  Many of the anti-demonstration group were also dressed for a battle with helmets and what looked like bullet proof vests.

It was a very scary situation from the get go including the torchlight gathering the night before.  So far as I can tell, there was no gun fire, but there was the incident of the car ramming people and killing one.

On Sunday, the demonstrators had left, but Jason Kessler (the organizer of the Unite the Right Group) tried to speak, he was physically assaulted.  This sort of action certainly was unjustified, but is common in this age when anything judged to be politically incorrect can be physically assaulted.

From my readings on Robert E. Lee, I think he would have agreed to removal of his stature from the park as he tried very hard after the War not to be a focus of attention (see the quote above).

Note added (August 15, 2017): On Sunday there was a protest march in Seattle, WA.  In this case, the police kept the counter protesters separated from the demonstration so there was violence.  As a result, there was little coverage by the news media, and the only clips I saw were of the police restraining the anti-protesters..  This brings to mind a thought.  If there is a demonstration and there is no news coverage, is the demonstration worthwhile?**

Note added (August 30, 2017)  On several occasions before he died, former Confederate General Robert E. Lee expressed opposition to proposals to erect Civil War monuments and memorials, including some devoted specifically to the Confederacy.    A letter was quoted in a 21 November 1957 article in the Chicago Tribune:
“My engagements will not permit me to be present, and I believe if there I could not add anything material to the information existing on the subject,” Lee wrote to David McConaughy. “I think it well, moreover, not to keep open the sores of war, but to follow the examples of those nations who endeavored to obliterate the marks of civil strife and to commit to oblivion the feelings it engendered.”***
Also
Rather than raising battlefield memorials, he favored erasing battlefields from the landscape altogether…. Lee feared that these reminders of the past would preserve fierce passions for the future. Such emotions threatened his vision for speedy reconciliation. As he saw it, bridging a divided country justified abridging history in places.***



* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_E._Lee
**  http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/far-right-rally-goes-ahead-seattle-despite-violence-virginia-n792271
http://q13fox.com/2017/08/13/police-arrest-3-confiscate-weapons-as-hundreds-protest-peacefully-in-seattle/
*** http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/robert-e-lee-opposed-confederate-monuments/
http://www.snopes.com/robert-e-lee-confederate-monuments/?utm_source=bme&bt_alias=eyJ1c2VySWQiOiAiZGI1YjBlM2MtNDY3Ny00ZjEzLWJlMTYtYTkxM2MyYWJlNjg4In0%3D&utm_medium=manual&utm_campaign=wednesday_update

JOB OPENINGS HIT RECORD - JUNE 2017

There are more signs of a good economy (also see : Taxes: America Versus The World.*)

The number of openings was at 6.2 million on the last business day of the month, a record high, the report from the Labor Department said. This represents an increase from 5.7 million on the last business day of May.88
..............................................................
The Labor Department noted that the hiring rate was little changed at 3.7 percent in June, representing both total private and government hiring. Hires decreased for educational services by 29,000, but were little changed for all other industries.

We may be getting to a level where consumers can't keep up their pace of aiding the economy, however, as credit card debt is also at a record high.
"America's credit card balances have never been higher, but there's no reason to think they won't just keep climbing," says Matt Schulz, CreditCards.com's senior industry analyst. "Combine that with steadily rising interest rates and you have a potentially volatile mix."***

The credit card debt is the only blemish I see for the foreseeable future (but it could go higher), other than President Trump  be able to talk down the economy with his statements like attacking Northern Korea with a  "fire and fury like the world has never seen"****   Oh the nostalgia of it all.  remember "Shock and Awe" back in March of 2003 in Iraq?  Oh, the Good Old Days are here again.  The market was due for some sort of correction anyway.
In the longer term tax reform could be damaging but probably won't happen this year.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/08/taxes-america-versus-world.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/08/job-openings-hit-6-point-2-million-in-june.html
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/08/credit-card-debt-reached-a-record-high-heres-how-to-pay-it-off.html
**** This reminds me that this is the anniversary of the Nagasaki atom bombing.  It is also the anniversary of President Nixon resigning from office and 10th anniversary of the beginning of the Financial collapse (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/09/a-former-trader-recalls-the-day-the-credit-crunch-hit-commentary.html).

DONALD TRUMP, STAND UP COMEDIAN

Donald Trump is arguably the best comedian ever at what they call stand up.  After all, how many comedians have been able to pack an arena time and again like a rock band?

He's got his routine down and now even reads it from prompters almost like Obama.  He is getting pretty good at it too.  Last year he was kind of stiff using prompters but no longer.  Even so, the attendees love the oldies and never seem to get tired of them.

He's got his "call and response" routine down too.  He says "Who will build the wall (between the U.S. and Mexico)?"  The crowd enthusiastically responds: "Mexico!"
He says, Hillary's 33,000 missing e-mails, and the crowd responds "Lock her up, lock 'er up, lock 'er up!."
He could add to this.  For example when he says the Russian thing is a hoax, the crowd could respond, "Fake news, fake news, fake news!"  He's missing out.  It would be a good one (Donald, it is all right to steal this one from me).

But the crowd misses some of the old-time jokes like, "Punch him in the mouth," "I'll pay the legal bills," and "In the old days, they would carry him out on a stretcher."  Of course, for some groups the jokes just don't go over, such as when he said to the police gathering, "Throw the suspect into the back of the Paddy* Wagon," and "Let the suspects bang their heads getting into the back seat of a police car."  Some people just can't take a joke.  His stand up routine didn't go over well with the management of the Boy Scouts either. (Though the scouts seemed to like it.)  Donald, you've got to know your audience.

So after an evening of cheering and waving placards, sometimes even before the joke is over (the oldies are the goodies), the faithful go home, smiling, one more time after an evening of fun.

* What is the origin oft the name Paddy Wagon?  A nickname given to a vehicle police use to transport prisoners. The name came from the New York Draft riots of 1863. The Irish at the time were the poorest peoplein the city. When the draft was implemented it had a provision for wealthier people to buy a waiver. The Irish rioted, and the term Paddy wagon was coined. (http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=paddy%20wagon)
Also see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_van

U.S. ECONOMY CONTINUES ITS IMPROVEMENT - JULY 2017

The economy of the nation purrs along.  So far President Trump or congress hasn't done anything to ruin the economic recovery from the Great Recession.  In fact, some of his deregulation may help some companies with time, but it is too early to expect anything now.

Factory goods orders jumped 3.0 percent, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. That was the largest gain since October 2016 and followed two straight monthly declines. May's data was revised to show orders falling 0.3 percent instead of the previously reported 0.8 percent drop.*

Jobless claims continue their great string of weeks below 300,000, something not seen since 1970.  In fact, if you look at jobless claims per 100,000 workers, the current string is a great record because of so many more workers.
Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market, for 126 straight weeks. That is the longest such stretch since 1970, when the labor market was smaller. The labor market is near full employment, with the jobless rate at 4.4 percent.**
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Retailers have accounted for 245,616 of the 556,493 new jobs that have been announced so far this year, according to Challenger tracking. Online retail giant Amazon plans to hire about 50,000 workers this month at its warehouses and sorting centers.**
Note that re retailers are doing net hiring although many companies are shedding workers.
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The four-week moving average of continuing claims edged up 750 to 1.96 million, remaining below the 2 million mark for the 14th consecutive week.

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Note that the overall trend in jobless numbers seems to be on a slight downward trend.

Meanwhile, wage growth continues to increase at a modest, sustainable pace;

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So long as President Trump and congress keep their hands off the economy, it will do well for the foreseeable future.  I would support a 10% drop in the corporate maximum tax rate to see if it will pay for itself.  This means the average company would pay around 18-19% without taking away any tax aids.

Note added August 4:  The preliminary July jobs report was bullish:
The U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs last month, according to the Labor Department, well above the expected gain of 183,000.
(https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/04/us-stocks-jobs-report-beats-fed.html)

* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/03/june-factory-orders.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/03/us-weekly-jobless-claims-july-29-2017.html

STATE DEPARTMENT VACANT DESKS?

From last May:As President Trump begins his first foreign trip, seven of the nine senior State Department roles under Secretary Rex Tillerson remain vacant, including his top deputy. The only two officials in senior roles were appointed by former President Obama and have been kept on.*  

If you believe the news media, there are all sorts of desks at the State Department with no one sitting at them.  Rest assured that someone is at those desks, except they are staffed probably by experienced Civil Servants with the title "Acting" before their names.  Actually I think that President Trump has no intention of staffing those desks with political appointees, and, if truth be known, things at State are probably working better with the Acting staff

One exception is the Deputy Secretary of State who actually runs things..  Tillerson's choice was black balled by the White House and remains vacant.

So all of the nine Associate and Assistant Secretaries of State are being held by competent people,not by political appointees who don't know what they are doing and are only there to get something on their resumes.  Two of the positions are held-over by Obama appointees (a surprise), but the other seven are vacant.

In a case like this, usually everyone moves up.  Somewhere near the bottom there are probably some things not getting done (lower priority), but they aren't urgent.

Things are any better on ambassadorships.:
There are roughly 200 positions at the State Department that require Senate confirmation, including key ambassadorships, the vast majority of which remain unfilled more than 100 days into the new administration.*

It may not be well known, but many ambassadorships are held by Civil servants because, well, people don't want to go there.  among the missing are:
The United States lacks ambassadors to NATO, the European Union, France, Germany, and Russia, Smith noted. For some of these diplomatic positions, Trump has yet to officially name nominees.*

The above statement is somewhat out of date because Jon Huntsman has been nominated as Ambassador to Russia in mid-July.  Huntsman is a former Utah governor, Ambassador to China under Obama, and presidential candidate for the Republican Party.  Former Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson was nominated for Ambassador to NATO as of the end of June.  Jeffrey Loria, owner of the Miami Marlins baseball franchise, is expected to be nominated as Ambassador to France.  Also Woody Johnson (owner of the New York Jets football franchise) was nominated as Ambassador to the UK as of late June.  I guess these sports team owners were big donators to to Trump's cause. So far as I know, none of these have been confirmed as of early August.

If I was a Republican, I would be very mad that the plums of victory are not being filled.

http://thehill.com/policy/international/334327-worries-mount-about-vacancies-in-trumps-state-department

TAXES: AMERICA VERSUS THE WORLD

Late last July, President Trump talked about taxes:
At a rally in Youngstown, Ohio, on Tuesday, President Donald Trump said that, in America, "we have the highest taxes in the world." In reality, the United States has average or below average taxes compared to similar economies.*
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Regardless of how you measure the tax burden, the President's claim is not borne out by the facts. As measured by percentage of GDP, numerous European countries that provide more social services tax their citizens more heavily than the U.S. does, the BBC reports: "In 2015, the U.S. tax take came in at 26.4 percent of GDP, well below countries such as Italy at 43.3 percent, France at 45.5 percent and Denmark at 46.6 percent."*

You can see this reflected in a chart by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget in 2016, which uses slightly different numbers. By their calculations, Denmark comes in at over 50 percent. But the U.S. remains steady at 26 percent, significantly below the average of 34 percent. As such, America is actually "among the lowest-taxed countries in the OECD."*

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* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/26/trump-claims-america-has-the-highest-taxes-in-the-world.html?recirc=taboolainternal

TRUMP CLONE IS OUT

Poor President Trump, he finally gets someone who he identifies with and has to get rid of him before he is even confirmed.  I'm referring, of course, to Anthony Scaramucci, the pit bull, Trump brought in to get rid of Reince Priebus and Priebus's friend Sean Spicer.  Scaramucci served his purpose.  At least he got rid of Priebus, someone Scaramucci hated, obviously with a passion, for keeping him out of the White House.

Trump, of course, loved the Mooch, as he was called, and his "colorful language."   Spicer was not tough enough on the job and the Mooch suited Trump just fine.  Trump loved the "salty" language (remember grabbing women by the P***y?).  Trump saw a younger, shorter, thinner clone of himself.  Remember Trump was known as "the short fingered vulgarian" for 25 yrs before he ran for president.

If I was Priebus or Spicer, I would be grateful to be out of that zoo.

I wouldn't count out Scaramucci just yet.  He could well return.