REAL STATUS OF OBAMACARE

Contrary is popular Republican claims, the ACA {Obamacare} isn't about to die according to an CNBC report (quotes in italics, you are urged to read the full articles cited):

But Obamacare isn't in a "death spiral," and although Trump can take steps to weaken it, he'll be unable to destroy it the way he and other Republicans would like.

The article mentions three specific problems, however:

High Premiums
Health insurance premiums saw a huge spike in 2016, rising an average of 22 percent. Were these sky-high price increases a regular occurrence or a one-time course correction? Trump hopes it's the former, and that rising premiums will turn people against Obamacare.*

"Empty Shelf Counties"

The other big headline from open enrollment was the lack of insurer choices in some counties. Unlike with high premium increases, this doesn't seem to be a one off. One-third of counties have only one insurer offering individual & family plans, and 16 counties in Tennessee have no insurers at all thanks to Humana exiting the market.*

Low Millennial Enrollment

Insurance works by pooling risk, and sharing the costs to cover that risk. Young people are less likely to use their health insurance, but they're still paying for it, helping to spread out the costs. Having more people enrolled helps stabilize a carrier's risk pool and lower the overall premiums.*

It is my impression that states such as California and Washington that set up their own system that the ACA is working well with lots of health care insurers to choose from.  It is in the states that opposed participation in the ACA where the Federal government set up plans that are the problem.

Kentucky
Kentucky, which has the unhealthiest county in America, that set up its own exchange, may be having trouble as the current Republican governor is trying to repeal it (see figure), however, problems exists largely because of poverty (quotes in italics):**

From 2014 to 2015, 85% of the increase in premature deaths was attributed to a rapid increase in deaths among people aged 15 to 44. The report notes that many issues contributed to the increase, but the drug overdose epidemic is a "clear driver of this trend" among those 25- to 44-year-old.**

Of the 30 factors RWJF [Robert Wood Johnson Foundation] considered when ranking counties — including housing and education — Breathitt County in eastern Kentucky was ranked dead last in health outcomes and Clay County was last in health factors. **
................................................................
"The eastern Kentucky counties have a lot of problems that they have to overcome, starting with high poverty levels," says Ben Chandler, CEO of the Foundation for a Healthy Kentucky. "We've got a lot of work to do in the eastern part of the state."**

(click on figure to enlarge)

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/29/trying-to-kill-obamacare-now-will-haunt-trump-later-commentary.html
** http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/03/29/suburban-drug-overdoses-fuel-spike-premature-death-rate/99728380/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatoday-newstopstories

STATES STILL TRYING TO GET INTO ACA MEDICAID EXPANSION

State legislatures rush to get into ACA expanded Medicaid.

Louisiana succeeded, but the governor of Kansas is expected to veto Medicaid expansion passed by both houses and the margins in both houses are not enough to overcome the expected veto.*

Including Washington D.C., 32 states have signed up for the Medicaid expansion.  Other states interested are (See quotes in italics below):

In Maine, where Republican Gov. Paul LePage has vetoed Medicaid expansion efforts by the state legislature, voters are set to cast ballots next fall on a referendum that would authorize expansion.*

On Monday, Virginia's Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe proposed amending language in the state budget to authorize him to move toward Medicaid expansion, which has been opposed by the Republican-led General Assembly.*

Also Monday, Georgia's Republican Governor Nathan Deal said he is looking into making changes to the state's Medicaid program "as long as mandates under the basic Obamacare legislation remain in place."*

Below is a map of the U.S. showing which states have accepted the Medicaid expansion (orange) and which states have yet to accept the expansion.**

(Click on figure to enlarge.  On my screen enlarging is not much help.)

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/28/kansas-legislature-votes-to-expand-medicaid-other-states-eye-similar-moves.html
** http://familiesusa.org/product/50-state-look-medicaid-expansion

TRUMP'S BASE ESCAPES SILVER BULLET

Who would ever have thunk it.  Obamacare was saved by the hard right (Freedom Caucus) of the Republican Party, a group that probably doesn't like any type of healthcare.  By turning down the American Health Care Act (AHCA), the ACA  (Obamacare) lives!

Why was Trump's base saved?  It turns out that counties that favored Trump have a high percentage of people on Medicaid.  Medicaid was cut back to pre-Obama days and the savings would have been given to the wealthiest who now pay a surtax of 3.8 percent on capital gains:  Quotes follow:*

Among those hit the hardest under the current House bill are 60-year-olds with annual incomes of $30,000, particularly in rural areas where healthcare costs are higher and Obamacare subsidies are greater.
In nearly 1,500 counties nationwide, such a person stands to lose more than $6,000 a year in federal insurance subsidies. Ninety percent of those counties backed Trump, the analysis shows.

And 68 of the 70 counties where these consumers would suffer the largest losses supported Trump in November.*

(Click on figure to enlarge)

And the wealthiest would benefit the most from tax cuts:**

The single biggest tax cut included in the bill is the repeal of the 3.8 percent tax the Affordable Care Act applied to capital gains, dividend, and interest income for families with $250,000 or more in income ($125,000 for singles).

Repealing that tax is a change that, by definition, only helps the rich, or at least the affluent. If you’re part of a married couple and, like the vast majority of Americans, make less than $250,000 a year, or earn more than that but have little investment income, it doesn’t affect you at all.
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By contrast, members of the top 0.1 percent, who each on average make more than $3.75 million annually, would get an average tax cut of $165,090. 
...................................................................
Then there’s the 0.9 percent Medicare surtax, a hike on wage income in excess of $250,000 a year ($200,000 for unmarried people). The Republican bill would repeal this surtax and, in so doing, give everyone in the bottom 90 percent an average tax cut of $0, per the Tax Policy Center.  The richest of the rich, the top 0.1 percent, would get an average cut of $30,520.**

* http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-obamacare-trump-supporters-20170312-story.html
** http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/3/7/14844362/ahca-ryancare-trumpcare-tax-cut-rich

MINIMUM GUARANTEED INCOME - II

What I call Minimum Guaranteed Income* is now more popularly called Universal Basic Income (UBI).  Such income will be used as a buffer for people that are made obsolete by automation in its various forms.  At any rate, some process must be developed to find a way to support hundreds of thousands of "workers" no longer needed in the workforce.  Finland is trying this out.

The idea is that people will get some sort of minimum income (maybe something like $2000/mo.)  where you have a modest home, TV, and food, and those who want a better life can seek it in the paid jobs on top of the MBI that are remaining.

How would you fund such a plan?  The idea occurs to me that some sort of property tax could be put on each automated machine.  This idea is not as outrageous as it sounds.  Right now you have to pay state and maybe local property tax on each automobile you have.  Perhaps you would tax things rather than people.

The latest article is from CNBC:**

Meanwhile, developments in robotics and artificial intelligence have grave implications for the labor force. A report issued this week from consulting firm PwC found that more than a third of U.S. jobs were at risk from automation, upping the ante for policy makers to cushion the blow to workers.

Advocates for UBI argue that a guaranteed paycheck could serve as a way to fight poverty and uncertainty in an evolving U.S. economy, and encourage workers to take more risks in the job market if they had some extra money as a cushion.

The idea has gained prominent backers such as TeslaTCEO Elon Musk, who recently told CNBC he supported UBI — joining a growing list of tech execs who've voiced support for the concept as a solution to unemployment that will be caused by future automation — the rise of the robots. Silicon Valley's Y Combinator President Sam Altman and eBay Founder Pierre Omidyar have also expressed support for a universal income.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/07/miimum-guaranteed-income.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/25/universal-basic-income-debate-sharpens.html

GROWING DIVIDEND PAYERS BETTER DURING RISING INTEREST RATES

It seems like we are in for a period of rising interest rates.  In this case, you might be interested in stocks that perform well during rising interest rates, e.g. stock with rising dividends (see figure).*  Perhaps it stands to reason because the rising dividends help counteract the rising interest rates.  Thus as interest rates rise, you get more money.

(click on figure to enlarge)

If you wish information on dividend growers and those you can DRIP you can see http://www.dripinvesting.org/tools/tools.asp. The table is updated monthly by dFish (Pen name).

You will find that a few companies have increased their dividend more than 60 yrs now (AWR-American States Water 62 yrs, DOV-Dover Corp. 61 yrs, GPC-Genuine Part 61 yrs, PH-Parker Hannifin 61 yrs, NWN-Northwest Natural Gas 60 yrs, EMR-Emerson 60 yrs, PG-Proctor & Gambel 60 yrs.  MMM-3M 59 yrs is knocking at the Sexy 60s door next year. There are quite a few stocks that have raised their dividend for more than 50 yrs.

You should not buy these stock blindly because there are those who have dropped from the list.  The first stock to hit the 60s number (DBD-Diebold-Nixdorf) promptly cut their dividend after 60 yrs.  As they say, do your own due diligence.

* https://www.clearbridge.com/perspectives/institutional/2016/dividend-strategy-rates.html

WILL STOCKS GO DOWN? WHY NOT UP?

This is kind of a hurried post and will become mute tomorrow, maybe, but if the AHCA fails in tonight's vote in the House, the thought by the "experts" is that the stock markets will go down, maybe even 5% (a thousand points on the DJIA).  I would think the stock markets should go up because the ACHA is an awful bill, but I bow to the forecasters.  Why down instead of up?  The following quote from an article in the CNBC may tell the reason:

First, though infrequently discussed in detail, the failure of the American Health Care Act (AHCA) to pass the house and/or Senate means there will be no reduction in the 3.8 percent capital gains tax surcharge on wealthy individuals.

It could be that the very wealthy paying the surcharge dominate the market.  There is no limit to greed.  They would rather not pay the tax than help provide the poor, sick, and aged with health care coverage.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/22/trumps-health-care-plan-failure-could-trigger-a-market-correction.html

SEE WHAT HE DOES

We are told not to listen to President Donald Trump but see his actions.  Well, his initial actions are pretty orthodox Republican. I can't think of any of his cabinet appointments that aren't orthodox Republican appointments.  A possible exception was the turncoat Rick Perry who formerly wanted to do away with the Energy Department until he found out what the Energy Department does.  This is kind of humorous until you think about actions Republicans like to take without knowing what they are doing.  Kind of sobering, yes?

Trump signed a bill to permit the deranged (mentally disturbed) to buy guns.  That is a positive?

President Trump visited the CIA.  I suppose it was to do some fence building.  The beginning of his talk did that (but I think he was laying it on a bit thick); however, about a third of the way through, Trump started a harangue against the news media saying they had falsified he views on the intelligence committees and on the CIA in particular.  I guess we are supposed to believe the CIA falsified Thump tweets and he never made them.

I suppose we also are to believe that Trump never compared the CIA to the Nazis (“I think it was disgraceful, disgraceful that the intelligence agencies allowed any information that turned out to be so false and fake out. I think it’s a disgrace, and I say that is something that Nazi Germany would have done and did do,” Mr. Trump said at a press conference Wednesday in New York City.) or that the CIA Director leaked untrue information *  President Trump tweeted ("much worse - just look at Syria (red line), Crimea, Ukraine and the build-up of Russian nukes. Not good! Was this the leaker of Fake News?")**.

Trump now has a problem with veracity and I developed a Scale of Lying*** called the Trump Scale.  But lying is a harsh term and efforts are made to avoid it e.g. not truthful.  Many decades ago, I developed a saying "I'm not accusing you of lying, I am just saying you are not telling the truth."

Kellyann Conway, Counselor to the President, has come up with the most imaginative alternative  expression for lying: "Alternative Facts."  I think that at least sometimes Trump actually believes his lies, but this does not mean they are true.  So when he says something like he has talked to a few intelligence officers (at the highest levels)  about water boarding, my first thought is. "I wonder if he has actually talked to a couple of intelligence officers."  Though water boarding may have worked initially, now everyone knows what is going on.  In fact U.S. troops are trained to resist it.****

Probably the worst of all his lies is his accusation that President Obama "wiretapped" him.  OK, I'll buy that he really meant "surveillance."  This serious lie is discussed more in other posts on this blog and I won't repeat things here.

It is hard to see how this ends well.

POSITIVES:  I think it was fair for President Trump to press Angel Merkel of Germany (who has become the leader of the Free World) to pay up to the 2% of their budget for NATO that they promised to do, but I think it wasn't right to snub her afterward in the Photo Opportunity where he refused to shake hands with her.  Germany is a wealthy country and I don't see why they cannot contribute their fair share.

There are some things I am in favor of in Trump's Executive orders.   I'm for the Keystone XL Pipeline for environmental purposes, but also it is the cheapest way to transport crude.  I consider myself an environmentalist and I believe all environmentalists understand that a pipeline is safer than transport by train or truck.  But what they want is to stop the extraction of the oil in the first place.

I feel I don't know enough about the Dakota pipeline to make a decision; however, my understanding is that it is all but finished.   If it is worry about the pipe breaking under the river, you could have a pipe inside a pipe for added safety and have it wired to detect any liquid leaking to the outer pipe, for example.  But I guess the pipe line is going to be finished shortly and that it is too late for the.

HOPES: I hope that Trump gets around to reinstate the Yucca Mtn. radioactive waste repository.  I was against it in the beginning and for granite storage; however, I came to understand the merits of Yucca Mtn..  You know where the water recharge area of the aquifer is and you know where it exits at Ash Meadow Springs where you could monitor the seepage.  Opponents say what if we have a retrograde society that doesn't know about radioactivity (say survivors of a nuclear war).  I guess I believe in that case, it doesn't matter.

I also would hope that President Trump gets around to approving oil exploration in the 1002 area of ANWR (Alaska Natural Wildlife Area).  You don't know whether there is oil there until you bring it in (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/12/you-dont-know-until-you-bring-it-in.html).  The evaluators have already moved the best target area once, fortunately away from the calving area..  ANWR oil prospects are only in a very small part of the Refuge, but it does contain a lot of caribou.  Caribou have accommodated themselves very nicely in the adjacent area.

* http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/15/cia-director-john-brennan-blasts-trump-for-nazi-ge/
** https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/820789938887294977
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/the-scale-of-lying.html
**** http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2016/may/24/todd-wilcox/waterboarding-works-us-senate-candidate-todd-wilco/

LIES AND LEAKS

It doesn't seem to have occurred to anyone that Donald (The Bully) Trump may have leaked the stuff about Michael Flynn himself.  Why would he do such a thing?  Well, Flynn was getting pretty hot.  You knew he was a Russian asset and had been a Turkish agent, but it was going to come out that Flynn had been a Turkish agent all through the election process into the time when he became Trump's"security adviser.  So Trump is not only the liar-in-chief,* but I suspect he is the leaker-in-chief also.  What secret information Flynn transferred to the Russians and Turks is yet to be disclosed.

Presidents themselves make leaks to the press so Trump would hardly be the first to do such a thing.**

Personally, I don't believe anything Trump says.  I would have to check even if he told me that it is raining outside.  Take his comments on playing golf.
Trump has played golf at least 10 times since becoming president in late January, despite the fact that he teed off several times at his immediate predecessor Obama for indulging that very same hobby while in office.

"He played more golf last year than Tiger Woods," Trump said of Obama in December after being elected president.

"We don't have time for this. We have to work," Trump said at that time.

And, at an August campaign event, Trump said: "I'm going to be working for you. I'm not going to have time to go play golf."***

I'm sure you recognize that this comment as to Obama is called "Do as I say, not as I do."  But he actually lied about such a simple thing as playing golf.

We are only past the 2nd month of the Trump administration and it seems like forever.  I don't see how he can make it through his first term.  He is doing everything he can to alienate our allies when he is all praise for Vladimir Putin, the Russian dictator.

Certainly there are grounds to impeach him already with his Obama wiretap accusation maybe being the worst, but he is basically giving the Republicans what they want in policies.  And it could be worse.  Remember that many Republicans don't like TrumpRyanhealthcare because throwing 24 million people off of health care isn't conservative enough.  They want even more thrown off.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/the-scale-of-lying.html
** https://books.google.com/books?id=Pne7AAAAIAAJ&pg=PA68&lpg=PA68&dq=Presidents+themselves+make+leaks+to+the+press.&source=bl&ots=slYMgC91W_&sig=qTqOqIydsypEa5NP_jaMtsm_pvU&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj1tdXcyOrSAhVQ1GMKHculCKsQ6AEIJjAC#v=onepage&q=Presidents%20themselves%20make%20leaks%20to%20the%20press.&f=false
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2006/04/weve_found_the_leaker_in_the_white_house.html
*** tp://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/20/president-trump-uses-golf-as-chance-to-do-presidential-business.html

SELLING HEALTH INSURANCE ACROSS STATE LINES

From a legal point of view, insurance companies could have national programs for health insurance now if all the states would allow it.  There is a big problem, however, in that the insurance company would have to negotiate providers and other aspects of the health care in each state to establish a national program.  Right now, say you live in North Carolina, you could probably sign up for health care in, say, Alabama, but would you want to go to Alabama to see a provider?*

Also what would happen if a provider had a national plan instead of a state plan is the low-rate community plan would increase and the high rate communities would decrease, each to some unknown extent.

Also I don't know why no health insurance company will service some counties.  Is the county heath really that bad that they feel they cannot make money servicing those counties?

There are some national programs now.  The AARP health care backup plan is national, the VA of course**, and the FEHP (Federal Employees Health Program) is national.

While congress is under Obamacare, they are reimbursed 72% of the gold plan, but nothing if they choose a lower rated plan.  If they qualify for retirement (You need at least 5 yrs of service), they can retire under FEHP.

*https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/01/upshot/the-problem-with-gop-plans-to-sell-health-insurance-across-state-lines.html
http://www.naic.org/documents/topics_interstate_sales_myths.pdf
** https://www.va.gov/HEALTHBENEFITS/cost/insurance.asp

SPEED IN LIFE (Biographical)

I always wanted to fly the super sonic Concord one way to Europe or back again, Just once.  But the price always kept ahead of me.  When I could fly round trip to Europe for $1,000 on a sub-sonic flight, the Concord was $1,700 one-way, and I felt I couldn't justify it.

In Seattle, Boeing has an airplane museum including a Concord that you can actually go into.  You couldn't sit down because they had a plastic "canopy" covering the seats, but you could walk down the isle.  It looked kind of cramped.  Actually I found the Boeing museum very interesting.  We were supposed to go on a Bay boat ride, but it was very foggy.  We wouldn't have seen anything so we went to the museum.  It was one of those occasions where you were glad that things turned out as they did,  As the old saying goes, "Life is what happens while we plan other things."

I did go on the Bullet Trains in Japan on a few occasions, however.  It was very pleasant and smooth with no sensation of speed.

I flew on Boeing 727s a lot and loved it.  I liked the way you got pushed back in your seat as they accelerated on takeoff.  And in the air, there was this whistling sound so you had some sensation of speed.  And then there were the "ride 'em cowboy" landings at high speed to prevent flame-out of the engines.

But life is not all about speed.  Mahatma Gandhi has said, "There is more to life than increasing its speed." http://www.great-quotes.com/quote/531411.  He also said, "Speed is irrelevant if you are going in the wrong direction." (http://www.azquotes.com/quote/856033) 

I  have learned over the years to slow down and try to enjoy each day at a time.  During the election period I kept have this urge to get to the next primary or whatever.  I would have to tell myself to try to enjoy the day I am in.  The news media does not help as they are always trying to tell what is going to happen when, in a few days or weeks, we will find out.  After all I am 85 yrs old when no male on either side of my family lived to 75.  I feel like I could go a long ways yet, but who knows?  Each Sunday I have a flute of champagne to celebrate getting though another week.

FREEDOM FROM DISCRIMINATION VERSUS FREEDOM TO DISCRIMINATE

It is popular these days to say that the Democratic Party stands for nothing.  That is totally untrue.  One thing it stands for is Freedom From Discrimination.  This freedom has long encompassed Jews, women, minorities (especially African Americans and Hispanics but also Asians), Gays, and more recently transsexuals.  This tenet has been in effect for over 50 yrs. since the Solid South left the Democratic Party to be the Southern Strategy of the Republican Party.  This gives the Party a clear majority; however, it has also created some problems because after awhile several of these groups feel the Party has not done enough for them which ends up costing them elections.

A particularly good example was the election of 2004 when John Kerry was the Democratic candidate for President.  Gays picked this election to press their cause and that the Democratic party was not doing enough for them.  This cost the Democrats to lose Ohio and the election.  A second example is the election of 2016 when Hillary Clinton was the Democratic candidate for president.  In this case there was some rebellion among most of the groups the Democrats supported.  Women, African Americans, and Hispanics did not vote for Clinton in sufficient numbers to put Clinton over the top.

Although at one time the Republican Party was socially fairly liberal and supported the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965, you can't imagine the Republican Party doing such a thing today.  I think that the desire to feel that we are superior to someone else is programmed into us in a basic way, perhaps hard wired into our brains.  It can only be sometimes overcome by education.  But we still have the present Republican Party trying to find legal ways to prevent African Americans, in particular, from voting and the thought of Gays getting married drives them wild.

There are even Evangelical ministers who claim there are at least two passages in the Bible allowing or saying we should kill Gays.*  One of these has said yes we should kill them, but not yet.  First they should be given a chance to repent.  This reminds me of when I visited Natchez, MS, many years ago.  My late wife wanted to go into Antebellum houses.  In one of these in a glass case, I saw a book titled, "The Biblical Case For Slavery."  Thus it is common to find reasons in the Bible to discriminate against someone.

Furthermore, the Republican Party has become a religious party.  I don't know of a single Republican Senator or Representative who isn't against abortion, even going back before pregnancy begins where some contraception methods prevent a fertilized egg from attaching to the womb wall.   Many are opposed to these sorts of contrceptives. The excuse for this is again based on religious grounds.  The result is that many otherwise Republicans feel they cannot run for office because they disagree with the antiabortion strictures of the Republican Party (examples are Michael Bloomberg and Condoleezza Rice).

The result is that the long tradition of the Separation Of Church And State in America** is breaking down.  Currently the degradation of this tradition involves the case of companies being able to pick and choose a part of a law, like the health care ACA, that they don't want to obey on religious grounds (the Hobby Lobby case), thus allowing religion to trump U.S. law.  The result does not mean employees of the company can't get abortions, but, since it is part of the law, ultimately the U.S. government must pay for the abortions.

Thus there is a very basic separation between the Democratic and Republican Parties.

* http://www.thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/davidbadash/christian_pastor_says_gays_worthy_of_death_at_conference_with_3_gop_presidential_candidates
**  Jefferson wrote,

"I contemplate with sovereign reverence that act of the whole American people which declared that their legislature should 'make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof,' thus building a wall of separation between Church & State." ....................................................... However, the Court has not always interpreted the constitutional principle as absolute, and the proper extent of separation between government and religion in the U.S. remains an ongoing subject of impassioned debate" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separation_of_church_and_state_in_the_United_States)

WORKFORCE NOT COUNTED

On March 1st of this year, John W. Schoen in an article for CNBC writes (Quotes in italics):*

When President Donald Trump promises to "get Americans back to work," he often points to the roughly 94 million people who are out of the labor force.

But while the number is accurate, it's hardly an indication of massive unemployment. Many of the people who are outside the workforce either don't want a job or can't work.
..............................................................
Of those who are able to work and want a job, only about 7.6 million can't find work, as of the latest data.
..............................................................
Some 20 million people are estimated to be attending college in the U.S. While many of them are working to put themselves through school, millions of them are not actively looking for work until they graduate and are not counted in the Labor Department's count of the workforce.

Another large group of those in the "not in the labor force" category are unable to work. About 56.7 million people — roughly one in five Americans — had a disability in 2010, according to the Census. More than half of them report that their disability is severe. Among those aged 21 to 64, about 40 percent were employed.


The biggest increase in people leaving the workforce stems from the 55 and older demographic, as the demographic bulge of baby boomers reaches retirement age.

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/01/trumps-94-million-missing-workers-claim-is-misleading.html

FEDERAL EMPLOYEES DWARFED BY PRIVATE CONTRACTORS

If you work in the Federal government as a Civil Servant, you know of the pressures to "outsource" functions of your bureau.  I have been retired from the USGS for more than 20 years, but while I worked for them, the following outsource of parts of the bureau occurred:  the shuttle to transport employees from Reston, VA, to the Interior Dept.; the Photo Lab; and the library.

In most cases the same employees did the work but through private for-profit companies usually at lower pay and fewer benefits.  Mail delivery, however, was different.  In Reston, mail delivery had been terrible for some years and it was contracted to an outfit of mentally challenged people.  I thought, "Merciful Heavens.  Now we will never get our mail and what we do get probably belongs to someone else."  But that was not the case at all.  These people knew their route like a clamped iron jaw and when they came down a hallway pushing their cart, you better get out of the way.  The Mail Must Get Through.

So mail delivery improved remarkably.  It could be scary, however, as once I got on the elevator  and one of the mail workers was already there.  I mumbled Hello.  He was a tall, strong looking guy with arms like tree trunks. and he said to me, "Why do you hate me?"  I said, "What?" He replied, "Why do you hate me?"  I replied, "I don't hate you."  Though I had seen him around, I didn't know him.  If this guy swung one of those tree trunks at me, he could have easily knocked me to the floor so the next floor I got off the elevator and waited for another.  But don't get me wrong, the mail delivery part was wonderful.

Following are large excerpts from an article from the National Review, that tells you a lot more about how government work is done by outsourcing but you ought to look at the whole article:

In 1960, when John Kennedy was elected president, America’s population was 180 million and it had approximately 1.8 million federal bureaucrats (not counting uniformed military personnel and postal workers). Fifty-seven years later, with seven new Cabinet agencies, and myriad new sub-Cabinet agencies (e.g., the Environmental Protection Agency), and a slew of matters on the federal policy agenda that were virtually absent in 1960 (health-care insurance, primary- and secondary-school quality, crime, drug abuse, campaign finance, gun control, occupational safety, etc.), and with a population of 324 million, there are only about 2 million federal bureaucrats.*  

So, since 1960, federal spending, adjusted for inflation, has quintupled and federal undertakings have multiplied like dandelions, but the federal civilian workforce has expanded only negligibly, to approximately what it was when Dwight Eisenhower was elected in 1952. Does this mean that “big government” is not really big? And that by doing much more with not many more employees it has accomplished prodigies of per-worker productivity? John J. DiIulio Jr., of the University of Pennsylvania and the Brookings Institution, says: Hardly.*

........................................................................

Since 1960, the number of state- and local-government employees has tripled to more than 18 million, a growth driven by federal money: Between the early 1960s and early 2010s, the inflation-adjusted value of federal grants for the states increased more than tenfold. For example, the EPA has fewer than 20,000 employees, but 90 percent of EPA programs are completely administered by thousands of state-government employees, largely funded by Washington.*

A quarter of the federal budget is administered by the fewer than 5,000 employees of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) — and by the states, at least half of whose administrative costs are paid by CMS. Various federal crime and homeland security bills help fund local police departments. “By conservative estimates,” Dilulio writes, “there are about 3 million state- and local-government workers” — about 50 percent more than the number of federal workers — “funded via federal grants and contracts.”*

But wait, that is not all:

Then there are for-profit contractors, used, Dilulio says, “by every federal department, bureau and agency.” For almost a decade, the Defense Department’s full-time equivalent of 700,000 to 800,000 civilian workers were supplemented by the full-time equivalent of 620,000 to 770,000 for-profit contract employees. “During the first Gulf War in 1991,” Dilulio says, “American soldiers outnumbered private contractors in the region by about 60-to-1; but, by 2006, there were nearly as many private contractors as soldiers in Iraq — about 100,000 contract employees, not counting subcontractor employees, versus 140,000 troops.” Today, the government spends more (about $350 billion) on defense contractors than on all official federal bureaucrats ($250 billion).*

Finally, “employment in the tax-exempt or independent sector more than doubled between 1977 and 2012 to more than 11 million.” Approximately a third of the revenues to nonprofits (e.g., Planned Parenthood) flow in one way or another from government. “If,” Dilulio calculates, “only one-fifth of the 11 million nonprofit sector employees owe their jobs to federal or intergovernmental grant, contract or fee funding, that’s 2.2 million workers” — slightly more than the official federal workforce.*

To which add the estimated 7.5 million for-profit contractors. Plus the conservative estimate of 3 million federally funded employees of state and local governments. To this total of more than 12 million, add the approximately 2 million actual federal employees. This 14 million is about 10 million more than the estimated 4 million federal employees and contractors during the Eisenhower administration.*  Comment added: Many of these work for companies encircling the Washington, D.C. area called informally "Beltway Bandits."

So, today’s government is indeed big (3.5 times bigger than five and a half decades ago), but dispersed to disguise its size.*

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/445230/federal-government-growth-continues-while-federal-employee-numbers-hold

SOMETHING DOESN'T ADD UP

On the one hand we are told all these workers haven't had a raise in more than 35 yrs, (see figure),* but on the other hand we are told that wages are increasing  at over a 2 % rate in recent years, somewhat higher than official inflation figures with 2016 having the largest income increases in years.**  Seen on the figure is that average hourly wages hit a bottom in 1994 and have been gently rising since.

(Click on figure to enlarge)

Paulsen [Jim Paulsen , chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management.] points to several other indicators, particularly gains in median income, that the Fed should use as green lights for more rate hikes.  Bolding and underlining mine.***

On the other hand, credit card debt seems alarming, though many of the poor do not have credit cards because of low credit ratings:***
As we reported last week, personal finance site WalletHub recently sounded the alarm, reporting that consumers racked up a record $21.9 billion in new credit card debt in the third quarter alone, the largest increase since 2007. It predicts 2016 will end with a net increase of about $80 billion in credit card debt, with the average household owing more than $8,000.***

A new report from the personal finance site NerdWallet looks at total consumer debt, putting the total at $12.35 trillion. Credit card debt alone, it says, averages $16,061 per household..***

In my personal working career, I wasn't piggish I just wanted a 10% raise in salary.  I think three times in my career I got that, but it wasn't long before I wanted another 10%.  Still, I always paid my credit card off monthly, except for a few unusual occasions.

* http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/
** https://www.fastcompany.com/3055151/the-future-of-work/employees-will-get-the-biggest-salary-increase-in-years-in-2016
*** http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/22/january-2017-existing-home-sales.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/06/fed-interest-rate-hike-in-march-is-big-deal.html
*** https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/rising-concern-about-credit-card-debt-121416.html
http://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/credit-card-debt-statistics-1276.php

PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS ABOUT HEALTH CARE THAT ....

An unfortunate characteristic of our President Trump is that you can't believe anything he says.  He can't hardly seem to say a sentence without some lie or misstatement in it.  He does this even when there are photo clips available of him showing that he is wrong.  But I guess his base will believe anything he says.

His recent gaffs are tweets saying that President Obama tapped his Trump Tower phone.  He, of course, is twisting and turning trying to deflect the news media researching his association with Vladimir Putin.  He also points out how many times President Obama met with Putin, something that is beside the point.  James R. Clapper, who was Director of National Intelligence up to January 20, 2017, says he should know if Trump's phone was being bugged and he is unaware of it.  This may be the most authoritative statement among many others including a statement by the Obama Administration.  The more this goes on, the more it looks like there is something fishy about President Trump's love for Putin.

President Trump may have opened another venue with his claim indicating the Trump got bugged because the FBI was following another lead that led to Trump!

So many of Trump's associates have met with the Russian ambassador or other Russians that it is weird.  It seems like meeting with a Russian is a requirement.  And it starts with a claim that they did not meet with any Russians, well maybe to shake hands at the Republican convention that the Russian ambassador attended.

It is hard to believe that this ends well.

That said, I would not want to see President Trump to resign as long as he is defending Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid. President Trump has vowed 14 times not to cut Social Security and Medicare, including several times not to cut Medicaid. (March 15, 2013; April 18, 2015; May 7, 2015 twice; June 16, 2015)*  One Republican governor, John Kasich of Ohio, is also defending Medicaid.**  If Trump was to resign, his replacement would be Mike Pence, the Vice-President, who has vowed to cut all of them.***

Note added March 6, 2017: Now it is reported that the Director of the FBI, James Comey, also refutes Trump's claim that Obama tapped his phone in the Trump Tower (http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/06/fbi-director-comey-asked-justice-department-to-reject-trumps-wiretap-claims.html).

* https://medium.com/senator-bernie-sanders/14-times-donald-trump-promised-not-to-cut-social-security-medicare-and-medicaid-99beefa9f584#.bpc2flxl7

** http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/25/politics/governors-medicaid/

*** http://www.ncpssm.org/EntitledtoKnow/entryid/2221/mike-pence-s-long-history-attacking-social-security-medicare