IT'S US VERSUS THEM!

The concept of  IT'S US vs. THEM is a basic feeling in human nature.  It may well be hardwired in our brains and only overcome by much education, but, under the surface, it may be still there.

Also think of a corollary that when one of THEM joins US, we accept THEM and the new US start to worry about the former THEM.  Think of your favorite football team.  If one of the stars of the hated THEM joins us, THEM might be accepted.  If you are a Redskins fan, the THEM might be a star from Dallas who joins US.  We may even cheer the new arrival and they become loyal to US.  But this acceptance involves small numbers.

Not surprisingly this US vs. THEM effect has been studied.*

However, we don't always accept THEM, particularly if THEM is a large number as in immigration.  Today we see this not only in the U.S. but Europe as well.  In Britain it appeared as Brexit.  The continued affect may be seen in elections of other countries like France and Germany as 2017 develops.

In U.S. history US (American citizens) have usually not been immediately accepting of THEM  It goes way back.  For example, when the potato famine in Ireland led to a large migration of THEM to US (the U.S.), they were not immediately accepted.  In fact, there were stores looking for employees that said Irish need not to apply.  To some extent, the Irish literally fought their way into being US through boxing.  Eventually WE did accept them, some time after the massive migration stopped.  The same could be said about Italians.  For signs, see: https://images.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search;_ylt=A0LEVjvD3JBY9pwAbBsnnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTEyNzJ2NW0xBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMyBHZ0aWQDQjI2MThfMQRzZWMDc2M-?p=Irish+Need+Not+Apply&fr=yhs-mozilla-002&hspart=mozilla&hsimp=yhs-002

There was a time when migration of Chinese were not allowed to join US (America).  It was called the Chinese Exclusion Act,** not suspended until 1943!  It was the first law applying to a specific ethnic group.

Then we shouldn't forget that Black Mark on our history of interning Japanese-Americans into special camps during WW-II.  Some  financial compensation along with an apology was given to more than 100,000 of these by President Reagan in 1988.***

Lesser known was the registration of ethnic Germans in WW-I and internment of ethnic Germans and some Italians-Americans (mainly non-citizens but also some German-Americans) also during WW-II.***  (See my biographical piece What Nationality Are We Anyway:  http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/11/what-nationality-are-we-anyway-biography.html)

So we should not be surprised if today the issue of THEM is Muslims in view of a small fraction of them being Terrorists. It is proposed that Muslims coming into the U.S. should be registered.****  Curiously, the internment of Japanese-Americans during WW-II is given as a precedent for this although the interred Japanese were eventually given compensation with a small amount of money and an apology by Republican President Ronald Reagan!  I wonder if the proposer knew this?

I find it interesting that death by certain causes is accepted as a daily occurrence but death by a Muslim Terrorist is considered a disaster.  Consider that around 30,000 people are killed by automobile accidents per year so in 15 yrs after 9/11, about 450,000 people have been killed by automobile accidents.  The figures for death by gunshot (murders and accidental plus suicide) are similar.   Neither of these bother US and are accepted, whereas deaths from THEM, Muslim terrorists, don't total 100 people (94 though 2016*****) over the same 15 yrs and many of US are scared to death.

Panic is not necessarily always from murders but can also be induced by disease, for example, the Ebola scare of 2014.  Many did not believe that Ebola cannot be transmitted through the air but direct contact with an infected person was needed.  There were those scientists that said "Ah, but it can mutate!"(though it didn't)   There were demands that people who had been in the infected countries, i.e. THEM, not be allowed back in the U.S. or at least should be held in isolation (quarantined) or self quarantined.  Then as now Politicians and pundits called for the immediate cessation of flights from the affected countries in order to “keep America safe.” *****
.................................................................
While incubating the virus, Duncan [first infected person to return to the  U.S.] had contact with 43 people, including close family members, who were monitored for symptoms for 21 days. In that time, he was with his fiancée, sharing a bed, for almost a week. At the hospital, a total of 76 other people were involved in Duncan’s care and likewise monitored for three weeks. Other than the nurses Pham and Vinson, who cared for Duncan while he was at the height of his illness, no one else developed Ebola.*****

I find it discouraging that there has been no evolution on the issue of  US vs. THEM fears over the decades.  We often can find a THEM to be fearful of.  I am not immune to this myself.  When I lived in Southwest Washington D,C., I would become very alert to my surroundings as I walked through a rather poor part of Southeast Washington, D.C. to a favorite restaurant.   African Americans would be sitting on their front porches or stoops. Passing through my mind was the thought of some African American yelling "Get Him!"  It was a thought that fortunately never developed into reality.

I asked my minister once if he knew of any evolution towards the teachings of Christ in the 80+ generations  since his death (a female generation is considered to be 25.5 yrs).  I'm not sure if he ever responded.

* http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/1/28/14425658/fear-of-refugees-explained
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Exclusion_Act
*** http://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2013/08/09/210138278/japanese-internment-redress
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internment_of_German_Americans
**** https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/11/17/japanese-internment-is-precedent-for-national-muslim-registry-prominent-trump-backer-says/?utm_term=.204d570b8eff
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/18/kelly_file_debate_trump_surrogate_carl_higbie_vs_cair_leader_hassan_shibly_on_muslim_registry.html
***** https://www.newamerica.org/in-depth/terrorism-in-america/what-threat-united-states-today/
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/medical_examiner/2015/10/ebola_panic_anniversary_predictions_of_a_u_s_epidemic_didn_t_come_true.html

PRESIDENT TRUMP'S FIRST WEEK

Well, how did President Donald (the Bully) Trumps' first week go?  As for me, at best it was embarrassing and at worst it was a disaster. Admittedly my view is not held by all.  I heard a group of three Trump supporters who viewed his first week as a grade of A by two and A- by the third.

Trump tried to bully the president of Mexico, Enrique Pena Nieto, about paying for The Great Wall of Trump and the Mexican President said NO and canceled a meeting with our president.  This prompted a long telephone call between the two presidents to sort of patch things up, after which they issued joint messages.  It turns out that Nieto is unpopular with the people of Mexico, and Trump probably inadvertently raised Nieto's pole standings by Nieto's standing up to bullying.   Trump seemed genuinely surprised by Nieto's response.  Not surprisingly, President Trump has continued his campaign of trying to the American media into submission.

Other countries are advising Trump not to build the wall, such as the Mayor of Berlin.

There is the temporary 4 mo. ban (possibly to be extended) on Muslim refugees from seven Arab countries from coming to the U.S.  to "protect" us from terrorists (Christians and other minority religions are excluded from the ban).  It turns out, however, that none of the terrorist attacks in the U.S. , including 9/11, involved citizens from these seven countries!   Still this view of terrorists coming to the U.S. from these seven countries in spite of the facts is also held by some other Republicans.  There is resistance by Republicans to the fact that the current vetting process has been pretty good.  At any rate, this has prompted law suits from people who have valid visas to come to America and a big reaction from countries  like Germany.  This one is yet to be settled though some damage has been already done in any event.**

Then there are a group of gag orders for scientists in EPA, Agriculture,* and other agencies doing research.  The gag order in Agriculture has now been rescinded.  Though the gag order for EPA remains in place, the freeze on grants has been lifted.  I presume the gag order on EPA will also soon be rescinded.  I don't recall any instance of gag orders on my science during my 34 yrs as a Federal government researcher but some others report having experienced it before.

There seems to be a general resistance to facts by Republicans whom seem to prefer to rely on feelings, not facts.   Kellyanne Conway once even claimed there are no such things as facts.  This was also seen in the Bush-43 White House that politicized scientific committees by insisting that a representative be included who followed the biblical origin of life (Creationism).

Perhaps the worst orders during the first week involved the firing of four senior officials of the State Department before there is even a Secretary of State (who is expected to be approved next week); however, Rex Tillerson at least knew about the request for resignations and maybe has some ideas for replacement.
They [fired] include Patrick Kennedy, who had been the undersecretary of management since the George W. Bush administration, as well as Assistant Secretary of State for Administration Joyce Anne Barr, Assistant Secretary of State for Consular Affairs Michele Bond, and Gentry Smith, who directed the Office of Foreign Missions.***

These people were fired without replacements, presumably to be replaced eventually with neophytes.  While these members are so-called Schedule C appointments, who serve at the pleasure of the President, one would expect an orderly transition, but that is not to be.

Note one of the dismissed is Patrick Kennedy, 63, who was a Bush-43 appointee.  He has 43 yrs of government experience in a variety of positions,***

Ambassador Joyce Anne Barr, 66, has 38 years of experience in the government in a variety of positions.***

Ambassador Michele Thoren Bond, 63, with 39 yrs of experience in various position beginning with the foreign service.  She has been in her current position for only about a year.***

Gentry Smith, 58, may be the most serious loss as he had 39 yrs in the State Department so a lot of institutional knowledge is being lost.  He was appointed to his present position by President Obama.***

All these are eligible for retirement so the loss is ours and not theirs.  Long ago, I too was "invited" to retire from the government.  In time I have grown to feel it was all for the best as I was no longer a political football.

Perhaps you recall the hullabaloo when the Clinton Administration fired the Schedule C travel office for the White House, a far, far less serious matter, but at least they had a replacement in mind.

I can't see how all this ends well.

* https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/01/24/usda-science-researchers-ordered-to-stop-publishing-news-releases-other-documents/?utm_term=.d68618fd176d
** http://thefederalist.com/2015/11/18/the-obama-administration-stopped-processing-iraq-refugee-requests-for-6-months-in-2011/  Reince Priebus has said that President Obama did a 6 mo. pause on people coming from Iraq; however, that pause was quite different in that the fingerprints of some terrorists  who came to the U.S. were found on devices in Iraq.  The pause was to allow a stiffening of the immigration policy
*** https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/01/state-department-resignations/514550/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_F._Kennedy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joyce_Anne_Barr
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michele_Thoren_Bond
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gentry_O._Smith

BULLY IN THE CHINA SHOP

NAFTA:   I will have a short discussion about the much maligned NAFTA.  Initiated by former President George H.W. Bush and signed into law by former President Bill Clinton in 1994, NAFTA has helped boost U.S. exports to Canada and Mexico, the nation's largest and 3rd largest trading partners. not including the Europe Union as a whole. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement).

"Goods exports totaled $236 billion; goods imports totaled $295 billion. The U.S. goods trade deficit with Mexico was $58 billion in 2015. "

........................................................................

"The top import categories (2-digit HS) in 2015 were: vehicles ($74 billion), electrical machinery ($63 billion), machinery ($49 billion), mineral fuels ($14 billion), and optical and medical instruments ($12 billion)"*

President Trump has succeeded in raising the hackles of the Mexicans by trying to bully them into directly paying for the Great Wall of Trump.  Not surprisingly Mexico confronted the bully and said hell No.   If the U.S.had problems with Mexico before, now they seem to be a disaster.

There is a proposal to put a border tax of 20% on Mexican exports to the U.S.  Please note that the only government owned operation in the above list  of  imports is the mineral fuels so all the border tax would be paid by private industry, often U.S. companies.  So with a border tax, it will be the U.S. consumer who pays the tax because of increased pricing, everything else considered equal.  However, everything else is not equal and the value of the dollar index is expected to rise.  If the dollar index were to rise by 20% (which might happen if the border tax applies to all countries), then I think (but do not know) that the whole thing is a wash.

Institution of the border tax would, of course, scrap NAFTA.  the proposal is to use that money gained from the border tax to pay for the Great Wall of Trump.  At any rate, I am sure that it is the U.S. consumer that pays the tax thus the Great Wall of Trump.

Under consideration by the Republicans is to make the border tax universal, e.g. apply to all countries.  I hope the Republicans think this whole thing through, something they are not known to do. ** In addition to the complexity of the dollar index, Mexico is almost certain to institute a border tax of their own.  It was NAFTA that got Mexico to do away with their import taxes and exports from the U.S. to Mexico rose greatly as a result.  So our border tax plus Mexico's new border tax probably ends up costing U.S. jobs.

U.S. goods exports to Mexico in 2015 were $236 billion, down 1.6% ($3.9 billion) from 2014 but up 97% from 2005. U.S. exports to Mexico are up 468% from 1993 (pre-NAFTA). U.S. exports to Mexico account for 15.7% of overall U.S. exports in 2015.**

I hope present day politics doesn't screw NAFTA up.

There is some modification of NAFTA in the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) (a trade agreement between Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru,Singapore, the United States and Vietnam.) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Pacific_Partnership); however, we are going to trash that before it begins and cede Asia to China.

It is hard for me to see how all this ends well.

* https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/mexico 

** For example, Republicans were all for the President having a line item veto, apparently never thinking that there might be a Democratic President; however President Clinton was elected.  When he used the line item veto, Republicans howled and took it to the Supreme Court that said it was unconstitutional.   Some Republicans still want the line item veto.

CARBON DIOXIDE/METHANE EMISSIONS- 2016

A recent article on CNBC claims that the energy sector will hold North America together not matter what else happens.*  A lot of progress has been made in reducing the carbon emissions from power plants:

The U.S. electric power sector consumes more energy than the transportation sector, which includes automobiles, planes and trains. Still, carbon emissions from power plants have managed to fall below those from transportation because carbon intensity from electric power generation has fallen faster.**
.................................................................
Natural gas facilities are also cheaper to build and operate, according to Robert Godby, director of the Center for Energy Economics and Public Policy at the University of Wyoming. New rules that require plants to install expensive technology to mitigate emissions, as well as the uncertainty of future regulations, have also dissuaded utilities from building new coal-fired plants, he told CNBC in an interview in December.**

(Click on figure to enlarge)

What we need is an evaluation of how much natural gas is emitted into the atmosphere in the extraction and transmission of the gas to the power plants.  The loss in extraction is methane that has 72 times the effect of carbon dioxide***  Leakage at least used to be substantial enough to make use of natural gas a negative saving on greenhouse gases and the break even value on leakage is estimated to be only 2.8%.***  Usable natural gas is usually processed to remove carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and hydrogen sulfide.  These inert compounds are commercial valuable in the form of dry ice (from carbon dioxide) and commercially used gases that eventually get released into the atmosphere.  The hydrogen sulfide, however, gets converted to sulfuric acide aerosols by a photo chemical reaction that generally cools the atmosphere.

Currently it is estimated that 2% of total greenhouse gas emissions come from the country's natural gas industry. In 2006, the natural gas industry operated over 38,000 miles of natural gas pipelines that were made of cast iron, the leakiest of all types of gas piping. In 2009, 4,000 miles of new pipes were laid.^[15] Further studies of methane gas loss rates need to be completed to access the situation globally. Assessing these loss rates will help reduce methane leaks from natural gas distribution in the United States.^[16]
Current USEPA estimates place global leakage of methane at 3 trillion cubic feet annually^[15], or 3.2% of global production^[17]. Direct emissions of methane represented 14.3% of all global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2004
......................................................................
In an April 2013 report the EPA lowered its estimate of how much of a potent heat-trapping gas leaks during natural gas production. It was reported that "tighter pollution controls instituted by the industry resulted in an average annual decrease of 41.6 million metric tons of methane emissions from 1990 through 2010, or more than 850 million metric tons overall. That's about a 20 percent reduction from previous estimates. The agency converts the methane emissions into their equivalent in carbon dioxide, following standard scientific practice."***

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/24/energy-holds-north-america-together-no-matter-what-happens-with-trump.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/20/us-power-plants-emitting-less-carbon-dioxide-than-transportation.html
*** http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Natural_gas_transmission_leakage_rates

AFFORABLE CARE ACT AND SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS

There are those who tirelessly claim that the ACA (Obamacare) is hurting small business, but the reverse may well be true as small businesses are increasingly signing up with the ACA.*  Quotes from the reference are in italics

One out of every 5 Obamacare customers — 1.4 million people — was a small-business owner, self-employed or both, in 2014, the first year Affordable Care Act plans were available, a government report issued Thursday revealed

The same Treasury Department report also found that workers whose incomes were not primarily from wages were almost three times more likely to buy health insurance coverage from an Obamacare exchange than wage earners in 2014.
....................................................................
"These data show that the Affordable Care Act (ACA's) Health Insurance Marketplaces are playing an especially crucial role in providing health coverage to entrepreneurs and other independent workers," the duo wrote.* (The duo is two officials at the Treasury and the Health and Human Services Department in a blog post detailing the report.)
.....................................................................
California had more than 480,000 small-business owners and self-employed/sole proprietors covered through those plans, while Florida had almost 290,000 such people covered. States with small populations such as Vermont, Idaho, Montana, Maine, New Hampshire and Rhode Island were among those with a high share of small-business owners relying on Obamacare plans. 
.....................................................................
[Noah]Lang,[CEO of Stride Health, a California-based insurance broker], whose clients include Uber, Etsy, TaskRabbit and other gig-based companies,** said he expected participation in Obamacare plans to increase this year among small-business owners and the self-employed.

Note The ACA is not applicable to me as I am in a work related plan and I am not really familiar with the ACA.

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/12/small-business-owners-self-employed-bought-many-obamacare-plans.html
** GIG Economy: A way of working that is based on people based on temorary jobs or doing separate pieces of work, each paid separately, rather than working for an employer.
(http://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/gig-economy)

GRINCH THAT STOLE THE SANTA KLAUS RALLY

As the so-called Trump Rally went on for the stock markets, I began to wonder if the Trump Rally was simply borrowing the Santa Klaus Rally?  Well that seems to be the case.  The Santa Klaus Rally wasn't negative but it was barely positive (see figure).

Traditionally the Santa Klaus Rally is the last three trading days of the old year and the first two trading days of the new year.  On this basis, the S and P 500 started the Rally period at 2268.88 on December 27, 2016, and ended it at 2270.75 on January 4, 2017 or an increase of  +0.082%.  The figures for other indices are: +0.19% for both the DJIA and the NASDAQ Composite, +0.58% for the NASDAQ 100, and +0.74% for the Russell 2000.

(Click on figuire to enlarge)

Another piece of Wall Street lore is that the first five trading days of the new year show you how the year will go on stocks: if positive, the year will be positive and, if negative, the year will be negative.  So how did it do.  I'm pleased to say it did pretty good.  The S and P 500 gained 1.34%.  The DJIA gained 0.63%.  The NASDAQ Composite gained 2.76%,  The NASDAQ 100 gained 3.31%; however the Russell 2000 gained only 0.02%.

Though this indicator is positive for 2017, we need to remember that 2016 started as the worst ever period for stocks although the year ended up quite good.  Also consider that most years are positive for the stock market so you would on average do well if you just stayed in the market year after year, called "long-term buy and hold."

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/18/narrowest-dow-range.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/18/business-euphoria-over-trump-gives-way-to-caution-confusion.html

DONALD TRUMP AND RUSSIA

President-Elect Donald Trump is full of praise for Vladimir Putin and trying to destroy our intelligence agencies, especially the CIA, to say nothing of NATO.  Putin is slamming those who criticize Trump.  Clearly, Trump is some sort of asset of Russia, perhaps unwittingly, but an asset none the less.   Putin has Trump all covered with syrup without Trump noticing he has tipped the pitcher. Putin could hardly contain himself in his actions to maneuver Trump.  Many have noted that Putin is the one person whom Trump never criticizes..Putin must be laughing wildly at his luck,  This is far more than just trying a reset with Russia and very, very scary.

Should Trump succeed in his attempt to destroy the CIA and many veteran agents leave the organization, we will be, in a manner, defenseless while new hires get experience.  We are depending now on veteran employees of the CIA to be so patriotic that they will stay.  I'm not sure what the outgoing Director of the CIA (John Brennan) means when he says that Trump has crossed a line, but it doesn't sound good.

If a number of the nominated cabinet members mean what they are saying in their nomination hearings, we will heavily depend on them to preserve the nation.

I also am wondering if the Republican's and Trump's attack on health care, among other things, will revitalize something like the demonstrations against the Vietnam War.  The Women's March is expecting more than 200,000 demonstrators on Saturday though well short of the million that was their original target.

Building the wall on our Southern Border has become a trivial issue.  To paraphrase what Sen. McCain said years ago about the border fence," build the dang wall."  At least it will provide temporary work for a lot of employees in the construction industry, except we are told there is not much slack there.

BORDER ADJUSTMENT TAX

The latest thing is something called a Border Adjustment Tax that is creating quite a row among Republicans.*

Currently, U.S. corporations are taxed on their worldwide profits at 35 percent. The House GOP plan would change that radically.

The new tax formula would tax domestic revenue (minus domestic costs) at a much lower rate of 20 percent. The net effect would be one that favors exports over imports.*

So the costs of importing goods would be wold be higher because you can't deduct the cost of the import:

But economists who support the tax say the policy would lead to a sharp rise in the value of the dollar — anywhere from 20 percent to 25 percent. As a result, retailers' costs will go down so much that it will be a wash to consumers, they say.

I have no opinion on this - whether it is good or bad - as it is above my pay grade, but it is something we should know about. You can read up on a few opinions.**

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/10/what-is-a-border-adjusted-tax-mean-and-will-it-happen.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/13/forget-obamacare--heres-the-real-republican-civil-war.html
** https://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/2016/09/28/shocker-paul-krugman-makes-a-sensible-and-accurate-observation-about-tax-policy/

FATHER-IN LAW -- SON-IN-LAW

I find it endearing that Donald Trump seems to have such high regard for his son-in-law Jared Kushner.*  I agree that he should be allowed to be an official adviser to President Donald Trump and have an office next door.  Heck, let him have a desk in the Oval Office.

I don't know much about Jared Kushner, so in a way I'm flying blind, but I presume he is more rational than his father-in-law.  He seems to want to pursue a political career.  I have to wonder if Trump's sons are a bit jealous of Kushner's closeness to their father.  Trump also seems to favor Ivanka, his daughter.  Perhaps letting the sons run the Trump empire will make up for it somewhat.  Of course they are not supposed to talk to their father about the business.  Ha, ha!

Kushner's brother Joshua** runs a health care business in New York called Oscar.  This may help Kusher moderate Trump's view on Obamacare.  Trump has said he wants the replacement to come shortly after the repeal, essentially simultaneously.  Joshua is said to have not voted for Trump.

Republicans want to get Obama's name off the health care law very much which after all has the acronym of ACA (for Affordable Care Act).  Obama is willing to have his name removed, but the media won't let it happen.  After all, the ACA IS largely the conservatives health plan which is why they are having such a problem coming up with a replacement.***  They didn't vote for it out of spite as a part of their political scorched Earth policy.

The ACA was supposed to get insurance companies to compete with each other; however, they have avoided this by backing out of the plan so that there is only one company to choose from in most places.  Various Republicans have wanted health insurance to be national where it is now run by each state.  This presumably would make health insurance companies compete.  This suggestion is interesting because it goes against state's rights.  But I'm for it.  In fact I am in a national plan that is voluntary and covers preexisting conditions.

Kushner may help Trump from being impeached.  What for?  Well, it could be a lot of things, but his too, too friendliness with Putin may eventually do it.  In fact one comedian asked if one could impeach a President-Elect before he gets into office.

Frankly, I think Trump is safe at least until he names a Supreme Court Justice, where the Republican establishment dearly wants input more than anything.  So far they have gotten their way on the cabinet appointments.

In addition to his over friendliness with Putin, Trump seems on a track to destroy the U.S. intelligence agencies, especially the CIA.  This makes me very nervous if a large number of the veteran CIA agents leave.  It is rumored that many are getting their resume's ready.

There is a lot of attention being made of the Russians having a dossier on Trump that includes unverified accusations of Trump being attended to by some "ladies" while he was in Russia.  I'm sure that the Russians have a dossier on Trump but not sure about the "ladies."  The trouble is that we know Trump is a womanizer and that he talks big on his sexual possibilities from the tape on the bus, so the accusations are not too wild.  But who knows for sure?  I also  wouldn't put it past Putin to have pictures rigged.

It is hard for me to see this ending well.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Kushner
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joshua_Kushner
*** Mitt Romney's in Massachusetts was slightly more conservative than a plan put forth by Richard Nixon.  The ACA is slightly more conservative than the Massachusetts plan.

WHY DID VOTERS REACT SO DIFFERENTLY TO THE GREAT RECESSION?

The economy has been good for a number of years and increasing good as time goes on.  I have wondered why so many white working men are so angry that they nominated and voted for Donald Trump?  I'm not alone in concluding that we are dealing with a hangover from the Great Recession (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-great-recession-vs-great-depression.html).  Normally people feel good and optimistic when things are getting better, even from a low level.  The problem is that people are not feeling the increasingly good economy.  I even have a post considering this very thing (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/how-good-do-things-have-to-get-before.html).

And why did the voters react so differently to the Great Recession when they became so angry?  In the Great Depression, there was anger at the Republican party in power when the recession started (Herbert Hoover).  Starting with the 1932 Presidential election of Franklin Roosevelt, the U.S. went for nine elections with the Democrats in power for seven of them, broken only by the election twice of a hero who picked being a Republican over a Democrat (Gen. Eisenhower).  The anger following the Great Recession that also started under a Republican President (George W. Bush); however, was focused on the party in power during the recovery (Barack Obama).  My projection is that Barack Obama will eventually be noted for being President during the Great Recovery.

The WSJ has a most interesting presentation on jobs and wages.*  All the seven figures presented are very good and I suggest you look at the  entire article.  Below I'll present two of the figures.

The U.S. economy added 156,000 jobs in December, the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7% and wages grew at the strongest pace since 2009. Here’s a closer look at how that compares.

Job growth slowed in December, as employers added fewer jobs than economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected. But it was the 75th straight month of job creation, in the final full month of President Barack Obama’s term. That marked the longest stretch of job growth on record back to 1939.

In the figure, you can see that the employment decline bottomed in 2010  with employment starting to rise in 2012 and  picking up steam as the years progressed.  The decline in participation rate is  not understood and can be only partially explained by retirement of Baby Boomers, the oldest of whom were 54 when the decline started.  It started a long time ago in 2000, flattened in 2004-2007 and resumed and steepened during the Great Recession.  Note the decline in job participation rate that may be flattening in recent months.

(Click on figure to enlarge**)

After wages bottomed in early 2012 they continued to rise slowly.  Thus beginning with 2015, wage gains started to increase at a good clip (See figure**); yet the increase did not seem to be felt by voters, nor the media for that matter that continued to comment on the slow recovery.


(Click on figure to enlarge.**)

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/06/unemployment-rose-in-december-but-a-more-realistic-rate-is-even-higher.html
** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2017/01/06/the-december-jobs-report-in-seven-charts/
*** http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/05/us-weekly-jobless-claims-dec-31-2016.html

TEENAGER (Poem)

(Stimulated by The Late Patricia Clark)

In my old age
I enjoy doing things
That I missed out on
In my youth.

Being a teenager
In my second childhood
Is much better
Than the first.

December 14, 2014

ITEMS WITH THE MOST PAGE VIEWS AND MY FAVORITES - VI

Herein is my sixth annual summary of posts on my blog "Reunite Gondwanaland."  As of the end of 2016, the blog had 51,000 page views and contains more than 700 items of which more than 170 were published in 2016, compared to 120 in 2015 that was a few greater than 2014's 111.

Much to my surprise, the posted article with the most page views, all time, is titled simply "Infrastructure Program" with more than 440 page views (My first post to top 400 page views) (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/11/infrastructure-program_23.html).  Number two on the list is titled "Detroit ?" that appeared on October 26, 2016 (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/detroit.html) with more than 350 page views published in October of 2016 (It was actually my first post to top 300 page views).  Number 3 of the top ten is the "Break Even Price Of Fracking" with 297 page views from October  8, 2014 (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/10/break-even-price-of-fracking-oil.html).

Also joining the select list of posts with more than 200 page views is a biographical piece titled simply "Enabling" with more than 220 page views  and posted on October 10, 2016 (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/enabling.html).  There are four other biographical pieces with more than 200 page view which, in order of the decreasing number of page views are: "My Maternal Grandmothers" (October 7, 2013), "You Are So Lucky" (November 23, 2009), "Tea Cup Seismograph" (August 12, 2014), and "Muammar Qaddaf And Me."

Rounding out the top 10 viewed posts of mine on the blog, surprisingly, is a very short piece called "What Does This Mean?" from September 28, 2012 with more than 210 page views.  The piece is so short that I reproduce the text here in its entirety: What can you say about a nation that opposes unions  for teachers, firemen, and police, but supports the professional National Football League referee's union?  Are our priorities straight?

There is a section on Poems By Others on the blog.  In this small collection is a fun poem by Ogden Nash that I have called "Fossils" from January 9, 2013.  It has racked up more than 560 page views.  There are many ways to see this poem on the internet so I am rather surprised to see so many people found it on my blog.  It is a good one for sure.  It was included in the music for Carnival of The Animals by Camille Saint-Saëns.  You may hear this music at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBGEf4urGNo

People are making use of my Table of contents now with more than 1,440 page views (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/reunite-gondwanaland-november-2009-2016.html)

Though all the above is gratifying, my own favorites depart from my "winners" to some extent.  I feel that the best post I ever wrote is "Effectiveness of Taxes"  (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/05/effectiveness-of-taxes.html). This appeared May 7, 2010,  is listed as receiving 124 page views, not bad, but also not in the top 10 and. Basics of Bureaucracy [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/basics-of-bureaucracy.html] with 134. In the former, I point out why decreasing taxes on individuals is an inefficient way to stimulate the economy. I liked this so much that I refer to it in three other pieces. In the latter that was written many years ago, I give some real rules of dealing with bureaucrats in a humorous fashion.

New to this group is a series of three posts examining the Great Recession Vs. The Great Depression (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-great-recession-vs-great-depression.html; http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/12/great-recession-versus-great-depression.html; and http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/12/great-recession-versus-great-depression_9.html) .  Here I note how dangerous financial collapses are relative to recessions and the Great Recession involved a financial collapse somewhat like 1929.  There is a dangerous hangover from financial collapses.  After the 1929 financial collapse many people turned to Soviet-Style Communism, fortunately not enough to alter our political system.  In the 2008-2009 financial collapse, people turned to Donald Trump, not truly a member of either political party (Democrats or the establishment Republicans).  It is yet to be seen how this turns out.

Let me give two Honorable Mentions. I wouldn't say this is a favorite of mine, but it can be important to some, i.e. Preferred Stock Investing [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/11/preferred-stock-investing.html]. I have invested for about 60 years, but never got involved in preferred stocks until the last decade. I would also like to mention one poem Upon the Second Anniversary Of Apollo 11, the first landing on the Moon [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/01/upon-second-anniversary-of-apollo-11.html]. Normally a couplet or more just pops into my mind and I construct a poem around it. The second anniversary of Apollo Eleven, however, was little noticed which I thought was terrible so this was the first time I sat down to compose a poem from scratch.

 Also among poems, my favorite couplet that I have ever written is in  "So How About An Asteroid" (Poem) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/so-how-about-asteroid-poem.html]:
Who could possibly be annoyed
About the study of an asteroid.

My favorite stanza is from  "On Age 82" (Poem) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/09/on-age-82-poem.html]: 
I do not text
And do not tweet
I'm 82 years old
Feeling kind of beat.

http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/04/items-with-most-page-views-and-my.html

THE REPUBLICAN'S DRAIN THE SWAMP?

So the Republicans got back together last Monday and Paul Ryan said, "We have the House, the Senate, and the Presidency, so what is the most important thing to do first?"

"O Boy, Oh Boy, Oh Boy, let's bury the independent ethics committee," says one member.

YAH, Yah, Yah the rest agreed.

After a lot of constituent phone calls to Representatives and a Trump tweet, the motion was withdrawn on Tuesday, but that does not take away that the Republican Representatives voted to annihilate the independent ethics committee as the most important first thing to do.

You say we have to depend on congress to keep President Trump in line?

ARE YOU KIDDING ME!!!
We need President Trump to keep congress in line
It is hard to see how this ends well.