TRUMP: FLIP-FLOPPER IN CHIEF

Donald Trump is not known for his consistency.  If you are interested in seeing a list of his changing positions see: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/24/a-full-list-of-donald-trumps-rapidly-changing-policy-positions.html

Covered are extensive discussions of (in order): Immigration, Proposed Muslim Ban, Minimum Wage, Taxes, Defeating ISIS, Voting For The Iraq War, Guns, 2011 Intervention In Libya, Japan and Nukes, Climate Change, National Debt, Abortion, Money In Politics, Violating U.S. And International Laws With Regard To Torture, Terrorism, Visas for High Skilled Workers, Border Control And The Refugee Crisis, Ku Klux Klan and David Duke, Iran Nuclear Deal, and Health Care.

Stay tuned for new changes.

I think Trump will not change his position on building the wall as he can envision the Great Wall Of Trump to rival the Great Wall Of China.  I think he can find some subtle way for Mexico to appear they are paying for it if he becomes president, like, say, an old bill is found involving the annexation of Texas that has never been paid, and, now with interest, it comes to $55 billion.  So Trump pays off the old debt and Mexico pays for the wall.  Is everybody HAPpy!

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND COLLEGE GRADUATE JOBS LOOK GOOD IN 2016

The Consumer Confidence Index was quite good in August 2016.  Still a significant number said the jobs were hard to get (As always, you are encouraged to read the full articles):
The Consumer Confidence Index hit 101.1 in August, The Conference Board said. Economists expected consumer confidence to hit 97 in August, according to a Thomson Reuters consensus estimate.*
..................................................................
While a growing share of respondents expect their incomes to improve, the outlook on jobs was mixed. More respondents said jobs were plentiful, but those claiming jobs are "hard to get" also rose. Similarly, while the the proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead rose to 14.2 percent, up from from 13.5 percent, 17.5 percent of respondents still anticipate fewer jobs going forward.*

On the other hand for college graduates:
National starting salaries for professional occupations are expected to increase 3.6 percent, on average, next year, according to a 2017 salary report from staffing firm Robert Half.**
.................................................................
"With skilled professionals in high demand and short supply, more hiring managers are willing to negotiate compensation with potential hires," Paul McDonald, Robert Half's senior executive director, said in a statement. "Top candidates are receiving multiple offers and will lose interest when faced with a lengthy hiring process."**

(Click on figure to enlaarge)

For newly minted college graduates, it's the best job market in years. Overall, employers are estimated to hire about 5 percent more graduates from the class of 2016 than last year, according to a separate report by the National Association of Colleges and Employers.*

* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/30/consumer-confidence-for-august-2016-reported-by-the-conference-board.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/30/base-salaries-get-a-boost-.html

PRESIDENT TRUMP'S BUSINESS INTERESTS

If you watch any news programs at all, you will see how the news media wants to destroy the Clinton  family Non-Profit Foundation. if Hillary becomes president (and even want her to Do It Now).  As the Clinton's do not get any monetary benefit from the foundation, the cause is to destroy any emotional benefit the Clinton's get from guiding a Non-Profit Foundation in their name.

The news media seems unconcerned about Donald Trump becoming president and not doing anything to separate him from his For-Profit Business Operations.  Does the news media really believe there are no conflicts of interest for a president owning far flung business operations while he is president?  Is it really all right for a president operating far flung for-profit business operations while president but not all right for the president being associated with a Non-Profit Foundation?  I find this to be weird.  I think our country has its priorities  all screwed up.*  Even if such a president doesn't do things to favor his companies, do we really want a part-time president?

Let's say that the news media becomes concerned about Trump's business operations after all and would Trump's business operations be put in a "blind trust."  Is a blind trust with his family running it really all right?  Perhaps, but the news media doesn't like the idea of Chelsea Clinton, Hillary's daughter, remaining on the board of their Non-Profit Foundation.

Some suggest that the Clinton Foundation be folded into another Foundation like the Gates Foundation.  Well The Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet, has done the equivalent of this and donated billions of dollars to the Gates Foundation.  So their is some justification for doing it.  But I believe he sits on the board of the Gates Foundation.  I'm not sure the Gate's would like to have Bill Clinton on their board, but maybe it could be worked out.  Would this give the Clintons the same emotional rewards?  Would this satisfy the news media?

An update after writing the above.  It seems like the Clintons are in the process of folding up their foundation, or most of it.  The Gates Foundation won't take it because the Clinton Foundation is a active foundation, i.e. they actually distribute medications (e.g. AIDS and diarrhea) and things whereas the Gates foundation is a grants (pass-trough) foundation.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/09/what-does-this-mean.html

WHERE IS TEDDY ROOSEVELT WHEN WE NEED HIM

Teddy Roosevelt was known For his aggressive use of United States antitrust law, he became known as the "trust-buster". He brought 40 antitrust suits, and broke up major companies, such as the largest railroad and Standard Oil, the largest oil company.*^]

EpiPins and other drug costs.

Then there are the medications that suddenly increase in price overnight when the rights to manufacture are sold to another pharmaceutical company. A few of the notable:  **

• Cycloserine for tuberculosis, from $500 to $10,800 for 30 pills.

• Ofirmed, an injectable painkiller, from $410 to$1,019.52 for 24 vials.

• Vimovo for symptoms of arthritis, from $160 to $1,678.52 for 60 tablets.

• Edecrin, a duretic, from $470 to $4,600 per vial.

• Benznidizole, treats Chagas disease, a $60,000 per treatment increase.

• EpiPen, for kids with life-threatening allergies, a 400% increase since acquisition.

• But the ignominius topper is Daraprim. The day after purchase by Turing Pharmaceuticals, CEO Martin Shkreli bumped the price of this 62-year-old drug from $18.50 to $750. and bragged about it in the press. The medication is a critical treatment for a parasitic infection that could be fatal to those with compromised immune systems due to conditions like AIDS/HIV and cancer.

On EpiPins, the drug costs less than a dollar a dose, and I presume it may cost a few dollars to manufacture the injector, certainly less than $10 total but with the EpiPin charge of $608!  As a result of the uproar, Mylan Laboratories is offering a $300 coupon discount.   Heather Bresch, CEO of Mylan, tried to gain sympathy for their charge for an Epi-Pin ($274 for two pins with the rest added on my middle men and final sales) if she hadn't given herself a 672% increase in salary.   My medigap insurance company (the large non-profit GEHA) is charging $200+ for the EpiPin from a special negotiation, whereas I paid $56  back in 2013, I believe.

We need someone like a trust buster to stop this charging all the traffic will bear.  In my youth companies priced a new product to regain their development and manufacturing costs over two years, then they usually reduced prices somewhat.  But with prescription drugs, the price starts high and just increases with time.  There is no real competition with prescription drugs.  If one company raises the price of a drug, the competitors happily raise theirs also.

What we need is a law that says the a purchased drug must sell for less than the charge before the purchase.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theodore_Roosevelt
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/25/mylan-expands-epipen-cost-cutting-programs-after-charges-of-price-gouging.html
*** http://itsnutsoutthere.blogspot.com/

NEW HOME SALES NEAR A NINE YEAR HIGH

Wow, new home sales suddenly near a nine year high.  I find the median home price to be shocking:
The median price for a new home slipped 0.5 percent from a year ago to $294,600.*
To buy such a home, I think you should earn over $92,000/yr to buy a home at the  median price; however, an online calculator says you can do it with an income of $55,200** that is somewhat more than the median HOUSEHOLD income that was a bit more than $53,000/yr in 2014, the most recent figure available***

* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/23/new-home-sales-for-july-2016-reported-by-the-commerce-department.html
** http://michaelbluejay.com/house/howmuchhome.html
*** http://www.deptofnumbers.com/income/us/

TEXAS WOMEN DYING IN CHILD BIRTH IN TEXAS

There is a big increase in Texas of mothers dying in childbirth.*
The rate at which women die in Texas from pregnancy-related complications is higher than in any other US state—or even in the rest of the developed world, reports theGuardian. A study in the journal Obstetrics and Gynecology found that the maternal mortality rate in Texas doubled in a two-year span, from about 18 per 100,000 births in 2010—a year with 72 deaths—to about 36 in 2012, which saw 148 deaths. In the 48 states not including Texas and California, the rate was 23.8 deaths per 100,000 in 2014, up 27% from 18.8 in 2000. California was the only state to see a drop. The authors say the hike in the death rate in Texas—no other state saw a similar uptick—is difficult to explain "in the absence of war, natural disaster, or severe economic upheaval," per the Guardian.

The increase coincides with Texas cutting health care funding for women.

http://www.newser.com/story/229968/texas-saw-spike-in-maternal-mortality-hard-to-explain-in-absence-of-war.html?utm_source=part&utm_medium=united&utm_campaign=rss_home

HILLARY CLINTON IN GOOD HEALTH BUT IS TRUMP?

Republicans have been accusing Hillary Clinton of being in poor health.  The following reference discusses her health that is good.  Included in the article is a URL to Hillary's physician  report that concludes she is in good health.

But is Donald Trump in good health?  He has cancelled his heavily promoted speech on immigration for Thursday, August 25 (perhaps no surprise) in Colorado, but he has also cancelled his rally for the following day in Las Vegas (August 26) and another at the end of the month (31st) in Portland, Oregon.  You know how he loves these rallies.  They are his life's blood.  What's the matter with Trump?

Note added 08-29-2016: two Critiques of Trump's health letter by another doctor: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jennifer-gunter/im-a-doctor-heres-concerning-trumps-medical-letter_b_11565838.html
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/donald-trumps-doctor-is-a-gastroenterologist-you-wouldnt-go-to-one-unless-you-had-health-problems/25740/

http://www.newser.com/story/229968/texas-saw-spike-in-maternal-mortality-hard-to-explain-in-absence-of-war.html?utm_source=part&utm_medium=united&utm_campaign=rss_home

NEW POLITICAL/ECONOMIC SYSTEM NEEDED

A most interesting article has been published by Howard Marks and I recommend reading it in its entirety.*  Following are just a few quotes from the article leading up to the thesis that a new political/economic system is needed (Bolding in quotes are in the original.):

If something might have negative consequences in the real world, politicians seem to feel free to ignore them. If someone annoying, like a journalist or an opposing candidate, asks about potential consequences, it’s easy these days to misrepresent them or deny they exist. And if it turns out that costs or consequences were willfully ignored, no redress is available: election victories based on unmet promises can’t be rescinded, and candidates can’t be sued over falsehoods on the stump.
.................................................................
Trump cites unfair competition from China as a main source of our loss of manufacturing jobs. As I pointed out in “Economic Reality,” however, in recent decades the U.S. has lost roughly ten times as many potential jobs to increased productivity, mechanization and automation as it has actual jobs to low-cost competition from China.
.................................................................
We often see poll results showing that increasing numbers of Americans doubt their children will live better than they do. We’d like them to, but why should they? Other than technological improvements which doubtless will continue to make life better for everyone, why should our standard of living improve monotonically? And improve relative to the rest of the world? Certainly the advantage in this regard can shift to other countries, just as it shifted to us in the past.
..............................................................

I’ll move toward summing up on the causes of today’s conditions by quoting from Thomas Friedman in The International New York Times of June 30. I think he did a great job of capturing the situation:

It’s the story of our time: The pace of change in technology, globalization and climate have started to outrun the ability of our political systems to build the social, educational, community, workplace and political inovations needed for some citizens to keep up.

.................................................................

The strategy includes more investment in the nation’s buckling infrastructure and expanding unemployment and health insurance. It calls for paid sick leave, parental leave and wage insurance for workers who suffer a pay cut when changing jobs. And they argue for more resources for poor families with children and universal early childhood education. (The International New York Times, August 3, emphasis added)

This is a very liberal agenda, and many Americans would say the whole and many of its parts constitute undesirable government intervention. What, then – if anything – should be done to arrest the trends described above? If we don’t do something, it’s likely that the income and wealth gap will continue to grow; the downside of globalization will continue to be felt; and our political process will continue to be riven by widespread dissatisfaction.

Though Mr. Marks does not specifically endorse a guaranteed minimum annual income,**  he comes very close to saying it.  There may well be other solutions, but this is one that should be considered.

* http://www.barrons.com/articles/howard-marks-time-to-face-political-reality-1471547346?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_2
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-basic-income-controversary.html

DONALD TRUMP'S BIGGEST CON

There is nothing quite like trying to con the public into voting for you for president when you have no qualifications.  Even Obama had a few.  What is the old saying: You can fool all of the people some of the time., you can fool some of the people all of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time.  Well Donald Trump is trying.

Just last night he generically "regretted" saying certain hurtful things.*  What things and to whom?  After he made his statements about the Khans, he was asked if he had any regrets and he said no.  He was also asked after his statements about McCain whether he regretted his comments, and he said no (Though Trump eventually endorsed McCain.).  Just what did he regret?  What he has been saying is carefully constructed to appeal to a certain group of people, mainly in the Republican Party.  So finally he appears to be making a pivot to being more reasonable, but the bar is set so low that his unreasonable statements are now endorsed as reasonable.   He is really saying the same things but in a more pleasant fashion. He said that he would never lie to you which is maybe his biggest lie.

He added: "But one thing I can promise you is this: I will always tell you the truth."

Perhaps he is regretting his showing an unflattering picture of Heidi Cruz as he has said that he wouldn't have sent it if he had it to do things over, but earlier he always has said that he has no regrets on everything else.

 Soon after saying this he said he was financing his own campaign.  Just last July (2016), he was bragging about how he had raised $80 million for his campaign in just a few days.

My opponent on the other hand wants a 550% increase in Syrian refugees. Her plan would bring in roughly 620,000 refugees from all refugee-sending nations in her first term, on top of all other immigration. Hillary Clinton is running to be America’s Angela Merkel, and we’ve seen how much crime and how many problems that’s caused the German people.**


It is really something for the Great Liar to call Hillary Clinton a liar, this from a man who is said to make a misstatement (lie) very 5 min.***

I am unable to confirm that Hillary Clinton plans to bring in 620,000 refugees from "all refugee-sending  nations in her first term."  This is certainly a lie.  First of all, the figure is totally unrealistic to do in four years or even eight years because of our immigration policies.  It might be possible for her to bring in 65,000 Syrian refugees  (the 550% increase from 10,000) in her first term, but it is most unlikely as Obama has been unable to get close to his goal of 10,000 Syrian refugees by the end of this year.

Donald Trump says that he plans to end American Nation building of other countries.  Well, George W. Bush (Bush-43) said that and Obama said that .  I think both were sincere when they said it, but when it comes down to it, we can't seem to resist.

And now Donald Trump is trying to con African Americans into voting for him while speaking to totally white audiences (or close thereto).  Lots of luck with that, Donald.

Working people should keep in mind that Donald Trump has said that the American worker is overpaid.  For example:****
"Taxes too high, wages too high," he later added. "We're not going to be able to compete against the world. I hate to say it, but we have to leave it the way it is. People have to go out, they have to work really hard and they have to get into that upper stratum. But we cannot do this if we are going to compete with the rest of the world. We just can't do it."

The one thing I am sure of the Donald Trump wants to do is build the Great Wall of Trump on our Southern border to compete with the Great Wall Of China.

But will the Great Con work and yield him the presidency?

* http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/18/politics/trump-i-regret-sometimes-saying-wrong-thing/
** http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-never-lie-227183
*** http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/trump-fact-check-errors-exaggerations-falsehoods-213730 (We chronicled 4.6 hours of stump speeches and press conferences, from a rally in Concord, N.C., on Monday to a rally on Friday in St. Louis.  The result: more than five dozen statements deemed mischaracterizations, exaggerations, or simply false – the kind of stuff that would have been stripped from one of our stories, or made the whole thing worthy of the spike. It equates to roughly one misstatement every five minutes on average.)
**** http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/donald-trump-wages-too-high

JOBS, PRODUCTIVITY, AND GDP

Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Management says he thinks there is something wrong with the  declining productivity numbers and also the low GDP.*  I've also felt that there is something wrong with GDP.**

Paulsen said he believes something is amiss because today's productivity data is out of sync with the long-term historical trend.

Throughout the post-World War II era, productivity grew faster than normal when real wages also exceeded average growth, at least until the economic recovery that began in 2009, Paulsen said. But throughout the seven-year recovery, real wages have grown above average, while productivity has lagged the historical average.*

.................................................

"If productivity is stronger, then so is growth, which might explain why profits have done so well, why auto sales are at record highs, why we've returned to full employment," he said. "It might explain a lot of things that are tough to explain if we're really only growing sub-2 percent," he said.*

(Click on figure to enlarge)

The new figures are from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as Jolts. The report is released with a one-month lag from the main jobs report , which showed the economy added  255,000 jobs in July. The Jolts report, which only goes through June, shows the monthly rates at which people quit one job or are laid off, and the rate at which people are hired.

The report has presented a consistently mixed picture in recent years. On the one hand, it has shown very low layoff rates, which aligns with data showing relatively few Americans have been filing jobless claims in recent months. But it has also shown the pace of hiring into new jobs has been slow to recover. Because switching jobs is one of the key ways that American workers get raises, the report helps explain why, for so much of the economic recovery, wage gains have been hard to come by.***  (Bolding mine)

I have put the final phrase above in bold because it seems to be in conflict with other reports.  Perhaps the key is in "for so much of" whereas other reports are dealing with more recent reports dealing wiht the economic recovery.

There has been a remarkable number of weeks with new unemployment claims being below 300,000:

Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a strong labor market, for 76 straight weeks. That is the longest such stretch since 1973, when the labor market was much smaller.

The labor market is now viewed as either at or near full employment, suggesting limited scope for more declines in claims.****

(Click on figure to enlarge)

* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/12/heres-why-productivity-isnt-growing-the-data-are-wrong-says-paulsen.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/economy-better-than-gdp-suggests.html
*** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/08/10/rate_of_layoffs_matched_a_record_low_in_june/?mod=djemRTE_h
**** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/18/us-weekly-jobless-claims-aug-13-2016.html

ECONOMY BETTER THAN GDP SUGGESTS.

When one hears about the GDP, the country seems to be barely limping along.  But all or nearly all other news seems to be optimistic.  Earlier this month, for example, I posted a piece on how a large number of CEO's are optimistic about the next year and another large group say they think it will be about the same.*  More recently I have seen another optimistic statement.**

U.S. consumers are also the healthiest they've been in 10 years, he noted, with rising wages, a declining unemployment rate and bank loans growing. *.
..............................................................
Meanwhile, JPMorgan Funds chief global strategist David Kelly thinks the U.S. stock market can still go up in the short run.  ......
 I think the U.S. economy is going to gradually overheat here."

What's this, rising wages, decreasing unemployment, bank loans going up?  Also the stock market is still going up?  Sounds optimistic to me.  Some even say we are entering an economic bubble.  There may be two problems however.  One is the large amount of inventories on hand, especially in the petroleum industry, and the other is a lack of fixed investment in the U.S.***  In spite of all the optimistic news, it seems like CEO's and their Boards are hesitant to invest in fixed investments (new plant and equipment).  I guess industry is able to feed the voracious consumers with existing fixed investments what with cheap labor overseas and automation at home.  If this remarkable economic recovery from a near-death economic recession isn't able to get industry to expand in the U.S., what will?  It is as if industry is on strike for lowering the corporate tax rate, even though few corporations pay the full rate.  Not very patriotic.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/ceos-optimistic-about-next-year.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/15/with-market-highs-heres-where-experts-are-putting-their-money.html
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/new-analysis-of-gdp.html

WHO FOUNDED ISIS AND WHO CARES ANYWAY?

Of course neither Obama nor Hillary Clinton founded ISIS but who did?  It was Abu Musab al Zarqawi in 2004.*

Though Trump is getting criticized for his language, the more standard Republican reply is more polite but is every bit as faulty as Trump.  They ASSUME that leaving maybe 10,000 troops in Iraq would have stiffened the Iraq military, and they wouldn't have been so easily defeated by ISIL as actually happened.  Maybe but they DON'T know that.  After all more than 10,000 troops were left in Afghanistan, and the Taliban regrouped in Pakistan and came back stronger than ever.  Furthermore, the elected Prime Minister if Iraq, Milaki, wanted us to leave and said if any American troops remained they would have been under Sharia Law.**  You can imagine the uproar the first time a U.S. soldier raped a Muslim woman and was sentenced to death by stoning.  Of course, I suppose we could have just ignored their decision on Sharia Law, but would we then have been occupiers and go in and rescue the soldier?  How popular would that make us?

Republicans also ASSUME that everything would have been all right in Syria if we only had inserted a small force early to overthrow Assad without plans for a successor; however, at the same time they bemoan our helping overthrow Qaddafi without plans for a successor.  Even now, Obama is unable to find a good plan for a successor to Assad in Syria should he be overthrown.  After all G.H.W. Bush resisted pursuing Saddam in Iraq because we didn't know who the successor would be and it might be someone even worse.***

Also when Assad overstepped the Red Line in Syria and used poison gas on his citizens, Obama is widely criticized for not bombing Assad's stronghold as promised.  Obama didn't do it because Assad promised to turn over his outlawed poison gases if he was not bombed.  These critics ASSUME that Assad was a goner if bombed; however, we really don't know that.  I'm sure that we could have destroyed a lot of buildings and probably killed a lot of civilians in the bombing, but it is doubtful if Assad himself would have been killed as he was no doubt secured in some well protected bunker.  I could understand people saying that Obama should have gotten more than "just" getting rid of the outlawed poison gases, but I have never heard this argument.

Seems like whatever you do in the Middle East is wrong.

* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/11/who-founded-isis-abu-musb-al-zarqawi-started-the-terror-group.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/08/iraq-and-afghanistan.html
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/07/syria-vs-libya.html

DOLLAR INDEX (25 YRS)

Ever wondered what the dollar looks like over a long period of time.  Bar Chart provides a chart of the Dollar Index ($DXY) over a 25 yr period.*  The Dollar Index is how the dollar trades against a basket of currencies.  The Euro constitutes about half the index because of all the countries that used to be involved but now are in the Euro.

You will note that the Dollar Index today is just about what it was in the early 1990s.  The steep strengthening of the Dollar Index was during the latter 1990s, the Clinton years, of a greatly expanding economy.   The recent steep strengthening is during the Obama recovery years from the Great Recession.  Note the weakening of the Dollar Index mainly occurred before the Great Recession.

(Clik on figure to enlarge)

* http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=$DXY&t=BAR&size=M&v=0&g=1&p=MO&d=X&qb=1&style=technical&template=

INCANDESCENT LIGHT BULBS LIVE!

I was in a supermarket and accidentally started looking at the light bulb display.  Much to my surprise , they had incandescent light bulbs.  As one always suspected, the light bulb industry could jack up their standards to meet the new standard.  What they came up with is the "halogen bulb" which is described as:

Halogen light bulbs utilize a fused quartz envelope (“capsule”) allowing for higher temperatures. Inside the quartz envelope is a vapor, originally iodine, now usually bromine. The tungsten filament evaporates as usual but the higher temperatures are sufficient to cause the tungsten to mix with the vapor instead of depositing on the envelope. Some of the evaporated tungsten is re-deposited on the filament. The combination of this “regenerative cycle” and higher filament temperature results in a bulb that has a longer life and slightly higher efficiency than standard incandescent bulbs. The higher temperature filament also produces the “white” light often associated with halogen bulbs.*

The result of all this is that a 43 watt incandescent bulb is equal to a watt tungsten bulb.  I bought a 3-way bulb for a table lamp.

Except for some tungsten maniacs (and maybe tungsten miners), everyone can relax.


* http://insights.regencylighting.com/was-there-actually-an-incandescent-light-bulb-ban

CEO'S OPTIMISTIC ABOUT NEXT YEAR

More good news on the economy.  A recent CNBC article* shows CEOs to be confident about the next year's economy even though productivity has been dropping.**  There is some hope that corporations will increase their fixed investments with 42% of the CEOs predicting increases.  Lack of fixed investments has been a drag on the economy.***

(click on figure to enlarge)

Of course, there are also those who predict a recession next year.****  We'll have to wait and see. as this remarkable recovery has gone on for a long time.****

* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/09/ceo-confidence-in-economy-continues-to-climb-survey.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/09/us-q2-2016-productivity.html (I find this article to be confusing.)
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/new-analysis-of-gdp.html
**** http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-11/congrats-on-winning-the-white-house-here-s-your-recession (Please note the URL title "Congrats On Winning The White House; Here Is Your Recession")

CAPT. HUMAYUN KHAN, PRESIDENT OBAMA, LIES, AND SCHIZOPHRENIA

Donald Trump has an attack "dog " who frequently appears on TV by the name of Katrina Pierson.  Like her hero, Katrina plays fast and loose with the truth.

For example Katrina Pierson said, "It was under Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton that changed the ‘rules of engagement,’ that probably cost his [Khan’s] life.*

Now Capt. Humayun Khan died in 2004.  Of course, President Obama didn't become President until 2008.  Heck, he wasn't even elected to become a U.S. Senator until 2004.  He was in the Illinois Senate in 2004 until late in the year when he was elected to the U.S. Senate and didn't take office until 2005.

I've personally known a number of people like Katrina Pierson, and you can't say anything so bad about Obama that these people  won't believe it and pass it on.  An example is where Obama is born.  When Obama finally presented the original of his birth certificate in Hawaii, these people said it was a forgery.  There is absolutely no way that you can get these people to believe that Obama is American born.  many of these same people, however, were ready to accept Ted Cruz as American born because his mother is an American citizen, but then so was Obama's.

The HuffPost/YouGov Pol in January of 2016 finds "that 53 percent of Republicans still doubt Obama’s citizenship. At the same time, an overwhelming 70 percent don’t have any doubt Cruz is American and eligible to be president."**  It takes a little schizophrenia to do this, but Trump followers do such things all the time.

Well, Obama did make the keynote address at the 2004 Democratic National convention and is famous for saying the phrase, "Well, I say to them tonight, there is not a liberal America and a conservative America — there is the United States of America. There is not a black America and a white America and Latino America and Asian America — there's the United States of America."

* http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/8/3/1556235/-Trump-s-spokesperson-says-that-Captain-Kahn-s-death-in-2004-was-caused-by-Obama-s-2008-policies?detail=email&link_id=6&can_id=af3794f2758d0c72ac0763afb2350d28&source=email-donald-trump-may-be-acting-crazy-but-its-keeping-the-news-away-from-the-one-story-he-wants-to-bury-2&email_referrer=donald-trump-may-be-acting-crazy-but-its-keeping-the-news-away-from-the-one-story-he-wants-to-bury-2&email_subject=donald-trump-may-be-acting-crazy-but-its-keeping-the-news-away-from-the-one-story-he-wants-to-bury
** http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/republicans-trump-cruz-canadian-birth-eligibility_us_56940e76e4b0c8beacf7fe2d

JOBS BY PRESIDENT - JULY 2016 REPORT

The preliminary July jobs report looks very good with 255,000 new jobs after June with 292,000 new jobs.  In the figure below, it is seen that most of the previous presidents have increased employ with the same slope.  The slope in increasing employment in the Obama administration was the same as Clinton, Reagan, and Carter, but his presidency started from a lower level.  The difference is in the base from which employment started to rise.  Thus Clinton added the most jobs because he uniquely never had a recession!

The exceptions are George Bush (Bush-43),who had employment tail off near the end of his term as we headed into the financial Armageddon (Great Recession) and his father G. H. W. Bush (Bush 41) who never got traction in increasing jobs.

(click on figure to enlarge)

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/05/charts-whats-the-real-unemployment-rate.html

TRUMP-PUTIN LOVE AFFAIR

I don't know about you, but the thing that worries me the most about Donald Trump is his mysterious love affair with Vladimir Putin, the dictator, I mean president, of Russia.

Is it because Putin has said some nice things about Trump and flattery will get him everything?

Is it because Trump likes dictators (strong men)?

Maybe it is a combination of the two.

But how far will Trump go in this love affair.  He seems to favor what Putin wants: destruction of NATO (because countries haven't paid their fair share), a breakup of Europe letting Putin take the Baltic States, Poland and who knows how many other countries (if they haven't paid their share of NATO),?  Just how much is Trump in Putin's pocket?

This paramount worry is in addition to comments he has made about ISIS and killing families, etc.

I find Trump very scary on foreign policy.

NEW ANALYSIS OF GDP

The big drag on the GDP is companies working off inventory.  Most recessions are inventory recessions so we are lucky that consumers are making the GDP slightly positive,  Once inventories are worked off, GDP should improve?

(Click figure to enlarge)

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/29/us-gdp-numbers-first-quarter-growth-is-routinely-understated.html