STOCK MARKET BEHAVIER OVER THE LONG TERM - FROM 2016

Over the next long period of time (Motley Fool* picks 50 yrs, John Bogle** picks 10 yrs) the real return on the stock markets  is likely to be something like 5% (Bogle) to 5.5% (Motley Fool)

* http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/22/how-have-stocks-fared-the-last-50-years-youll-be-s.aspx
At the end of 1965, the Shiller CAPE stood at 23.6, and today it stands at 24.3. The historical average is 16.7.
So, using just this one measurement, stocks are about as expensive today as they were 50 years ago. If the next 50 years show returns in the same ballpark as the past 50 -- and they are working off roughly the same valuation starting point -- then investors will do acceptably if they're expecting returns in the area of 5.5% over that time period.
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/26/jack-bogle-theres-no-stock-pickers-market.html
Amid earnings season Bogle warns that the market may see five percent investment return, well below the norms over the next decade, but "it's better than nothing and certainly no reason to get out of the market," he said.

TRANSSEXUALS, RESTROOMS, AND LOCKER ROOMS

As I live in North Carolina, the topic of bathroom and locker room use by transsexuals is current and keeps coming up on TV because of a law called HB2.*  Mississippi too has passed a bathroom and locker room law.

Estimates of what percentage of Americans are transsexuals range widely from 0.1% (1 in a thousand) to 0.5% (1 in 200).  It seems possibly that you may not even encounter a transsexual in your lifetime.

In the North Carolina law, transsexuals are to use the bathroom and locker room of their birth gender.  Well I think that as to bathrooms you probably wouldn't know the person going into the stall was for the women's restroom was a male unless he/she was wearing a beard or maybe if you struck up a conversation with them.  Ditto for a women transsexual going into the men's restroom.

Locker rooms are something else, of course, except for those transsexuals who have had a complete sex change operation,** whether it is from male to female or female to male as they both would have the same, um, equipment or lack thereof.  That is the man actually is a woman who has had a complete hysterectomy and a women actually looks like a man complete with a penis.***  Apparently they can even have sex.  I suspect that you wouldn't even know, at least from a casual look.  These people certainly belong in their new sex restroom and locker rooms.  Uterine transplantation is even in experimental phases.  Apparently there are some health insurance plans that cover such operations.

Another thing is that in most places, women now wear trousers and many sport a mannish haircut.  A lot of such women could maybe "pass" in the male restroom without a sex change operation.  I think that male transsexuals who still have their, um, equipment steer clear of women's locker rooms.  There is no problem with their wearing trousers and sport a mannish haircut and still identify themselves as a woman.

With this post, my interest in the topic is finished.

* http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article68401147.html
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sex_reassignment_surgery
*** https://www.quora.com/Will-complete-sex-changes-including-all-internal-organs-and-full-fertility-ever-be-possible
https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=A0LEVvfYKxxX5D4A8D4nnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTByaWg0YW05BGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwM4BHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--?qid=20100110033224AAZWDdI&p=complete%20sex%20change

UNEMPLOYMENT FILINGS LOWEST SINCE 1973 - II

Well, jobless claims continue to decrease with the latest week estimated to be below 250,000. * Although jobs seem to be plentiful, apparently the wages workers are getting leave them mad-as-heck.**

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, hitting its lowest level since 1973, suggesting the labor market continued to gain momentum despite weak economic growth.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 247,000 for the week ended April 16, the lowest reading since November 1973, the Labor Department said on Thursday.*
.......................................................................
Jobless claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with healthy labor market conditions, for 59 weeks, the longest stretch since 1973.*
.......................................................................
The economy has been constrained by a strong dollar and weak global demand, which have undermined exports. Lower oil prices are also a drag, as they have eroded the profits of energy firms and prompted them to slash spending on capital projects.*
.......................................................................
The four-week average of the so-called continuing claims decreased 10,750 to 2.17 million, also the lowest reading since November 2000.*

I guess I won't give a weekly blow by blow of the jobs picture, but will tune in now and then.

* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/21/us-weekly-jobless-claims-april-16-2016.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/04/unemployment-filings-lowest-since-1973.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/04/job-winners-and-losers.html

ITEMS WITH THE MOST PAGE VIEWS AND MY FAVORITES - V

An eclectic blog (November, 2009, through December, 2015) with sections on Biography, Commentary (General, Economics and Investing), Fiction, Health Care, Oil and Gas, Politics, Photographs, and Poetry (Children's Poems, General, Health, and Space Poems) and (new) Poems By Others: http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/reunite-gondwanaland-2009-june-2011.html  As of the end of 2015, the blog contains 540 items with 120 published in 2015, a few greater than last year's 111.

The Reunite Gondwanaland and Table Of Contents has the most page views with 430.  Close behind in the new Poems By Others Section, Ogden Nash's poem Fossils with 428  [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/01/fossils-by-ogden-nash-poem.html] as the blog bears down on 37,000 page views.

Of my own posts, there is the first 300 page viewer from 2014, The Break Even Price of Fracking Oil [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/10/break-even-price-of-fracking-oil.html] with 300 page views.

Four other items have at least 200 page views: You Are So Lucky (Biographical) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2009/11/you-are-so-lucky.html] with 230 (Which deals with my first three days in Japan in 1965); The Tea Cup Seimograph [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-tea-cup-seismograph-biographical.html] with 215 (It was no doubt popular because of the Great Japanese Earthquake of 2011.);  Muammar Qaddafi And Me (Biographical) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/12/muammar-qaddafi-and-me-biographical.html] with 212 (No doubt popular because of the overthrow of the Libyan dictator Qaddafi); and My Maternal Grandmother (Biographical) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/10/my-maternal-grandmother-biographical.html]  with 209 page views;

More than 10 posts have at least 100 page views.  The highest of these is Trump Or Cruz? [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/12/trump-or-cruz.html] with 177 page views; closely followed by Working Underground: My Rational Self and My Emotional Self with  170 page views [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/01/working-underground-my-rational-self.html].  Two other posts from 2015  that topped 100 page views are:Who Buys Isis Oil with 140 [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/11/who-buys-isis-oil.html]; and 13 Things That Doen't Make Sense (Book Review) - Part I  [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/06/13-things-that-dont-make-sense-book.html] with 101.

Each piece I have written is like a child and I love them all, but it is common that some children are loved more than others. My personal favorites are Effectiveness Of Taxes [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/05/effectiveness-of-taxes.html] with fewer than 100 page views and Basics of Bureaucracy [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/basics-of-bureaucracy.html] with 114. In the former, I point out why decreasing taxes on individuals is an inefficient way to stimulate the economy. I liked this so much that I refer to it in three other pieces. Alas the reading public did not agree as to its great value. In the latter that was written many years ago, I give some real rules of dealing with bureaucrats in a humorous fashion.

Let me give two Honorable Mentions. I wouldn't say this is a favorite of mine, but it can be important to some, i.e. Preferred Stock Investing with 131 hits [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/11/preferred-stock-investing.html]. I have invested for about 60 years, but never got involved in preferred stocks until the last decade. I would also like to mention one poem Upon the Second Anniversary Of Apollo 11, the first landing on the Moon [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/01/upon-second-anniversary-of-apollo-11.html]. Normally a couplet or more just pops into my mind and I construct a poem around it. The second anniversary of Apollo Eleven, however, was little noticed which I thought was terrible so this was the first time I sat down to compose a poem from scratch. 

Also on poems, my favorite couplet that I have ever written is in  So How About An Asteroid (Poem) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/so-how-about-asteroid-poem.html], with 80 page views: Who could possibly be annoyed/ About the study of an asteroid.  My favorite stanza is from  On Age 82 (Poem) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/09/on-age-82-poem.html] with 133: 

I do not text

And do not tweet

I'm 82 years old

Feeling kind of beat.

CRUZ AGAINST DILDOS - REALLY

The degree that Republicans like to control what goes on in our bedrooms seems to know no bounds and even would be sort of funny if they weren't so serious.  The late Supreme Court Justice Scalia, for example, bemoaned the disappearance of laws that made masturbation illegal. * Sometime candidate for President and former Senator Rick Santorum bemoaned the repeal of a Connecticut law that barred married people from using contraceptives in their bedrooms.* Now Senator and Presidential candidate Ted Cruz supported a bill banning the use of dildos.**  (Incidentally, the reference works if you can highlight it and copy it into the address bar.)  He claimed it was like hiring a prostitute.  Fortunately his case was thrown out by a Federal appeals court.

I probably could find more examples if I tried, but these are enough.  We actually have and had such people in the highest levels of our government.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2009/12/in-end-liberalism-wins.html
** http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/04/13/1514818/-Call-of-the-Dildos-The-Ted-Cruz-Story?detail=email&link_id=2&can_id=af3794f2758d0c72ac0763afb2350d28&source=email-the-first-lady-of-crazy-conservatives-is-facing-a-hostile-takeover-after-endorsing-trump&email_referrer=the-first-lady-of-crazy-conservatives-is-facing-a-hostile-takeover-after-endorsing-trump&email_subject=the-first-lady-of-crazy-conservatives-is-facing-a-hostile-takeover-after-endorsing-trump

JOB WINNERS AND LOSERS

I'm kind of baffled because on the one hand, jobs are increasing, layoffs are declining and voluntary quitting is increasing.  It would seem like the jobs picture is pretty good.  Then one hears about how unhappy workers are.*

For one thing, it seems to have something to do with education.  If you have a bachelor's degree you are probably in the same boat you were back in 2001 (see Figure).  If you have less than that, you haven't done well in recent years, but if you have an advanced degree, you are doing well.  One sees articles that say getting a degree isn't worth it, but that is baloney.  If you have less than a Bachelor's degree, however, it seems like maybe you shouldn't have bothered with higher education.

For another thing, there is a real decline in manufacturing jobs whereas jobs in education and health are rapidly increasing.  Next comes professional and business services.  Jobs in retail trade have been essentially flat in this century, but leisure and hospitality jobs continue to increase.**

One of the more glaring examples of how strong pessimism has become is Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index. The measure gauges the difference between respondents who say the economy is improving or declining. The most recent results are not good.

Fully 59 percent say the economy is "getting worse" against just 37 percent who say it is "getting better." That gap of 22 percentage points is the worst since August, according to Gallup, which polled 3,542 adults. The index carries a sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.**

(Click on Figure to Enlarge.*

* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/14/most-americans-think-economy-is-getting-worse.html
** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/04/12/is-life-better-than-it-was-decades-ago-for-some-voters-probably-not/?mod=djemRTE_h

ABORTION CONTROL THROUGH VASECTOMIES

I ran across this item the other day on controlling abortions through vasectomies.  Somehow I think it won't be adopted:

 

You just never know what you’ll find while frolicking on Facebook. Last weekend I noticed a typed anonymous blurb circulating and getting lots of likes/shares. Finally, I took a few seconds to read it:

“Since straight men ages 15-29 are most likely to impregnate women accidentally, I’m sure the GOP could get behind mandatory vasectomies for them staring at 15. Reversal is usually highly successful, and could be allowed at age 30, or earlier with wife’s permission. Both procedures are cheaper and easier than childbirth in terms of time, materials, and discomfort. More reliable business for doctors, the event industry could get behind it, and churches won’t complain. Win-Win-Snip-Snip.” -Writer Unknown*

* http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/4/12/1514092/-The-perfect-meme-on-how-to-reduce-abortions-GOP-can-I-get-an-AMEN?detail=email&link_id=8&can_id=af3794f2758d0c72ac0763afb2350d28&source=email-cartoon-north-carolinas-backward-bills&email_referrer=cartoon-north-carolinas-backward-bills___57953&email_subject=samantha-bee-proves-how-much-harder-it-is-to-book-the-nras-mascot-than-it-is-to-buy-an-arsenal

UNEMPLOYMENT FILINGS LOWEST SINCE 1973

The jobs picture continues to improve with weekly jobless claims (as of April 9, 2016) staying below 300 for more than a year now, something not seen since 1973.  At the same time continuing claims are also low and the least since 2000.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, revisiting a level last seen in 1973 as the labor market continues to strengthen despite a sluggish economy.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 253,000 for the week ended April 9, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That matched the level for early March, which was the lowest since November 1973.*

Claims for the week ending April 2 were revised to show 1,000 fewer applications received than previously reported. 
 ...................................................................
The four-week average of the so-called continuing claims fell 10,250 to 2.18 million, the lowest level since mid-November 2000.*

* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/14/us-weekly-jobless-claims-april-9-2016.html

MOVED TO NORTH CAROLINA (Biographical)

We moved to North Carolina in September of 2005 because my late-wife wanted to live about half-way between her summer cottage in Highlands, NC, in the SW corner of the state and her oldest son's home in northern Virginia.  I probably would have rebelled while Jesse Helms was a Senator, but he was gone.  I had some questions about the politics of the state; however, it seems to be left center in its politics.  They had a very liberal voting policy, for one example and a 2% tax on food whereas it was 6.75% on everything else for another.

I hadn't realized it but it turned out that, in the county I was to live (Moore), my vote didn't count except in state wide or national elections.

Then in 2012, Republicans took over the state House and Senate and governorship and the lights started to go out across the state.  The first thing they did was to reduce the number of polling places, reduce the number of early voting days, and require a "legal" photo ID.  Republican Gov. McCrory said he would veto any future bill  restricting abortions, but, when the time came, he caved in and signed the bills.*  Curiously for a state that wanted to attract retirees, a bill was passed to eliminate a health tax deduction for members of continuing care facilities (though now this law has been overturned).

The latest thing is a bill, HB2, that discriminates against the LGBT.**  Bruce Springsteen has cancelled his concert in NC even though 14,000 tickets had been sold, and PayPal has rescinded a plan to locate an office here with 400 employees.  Other companies have expressed displeasure with the law.

Are there any lights left on in North Carolina?

* http://www.charlotteobserver.com/opinion/op-ed/article52991410.html
** http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/4/5/1510907/-North-Carolina-GOP-now-in-full-on-delusional-damage-control-after-losing-PayPal-over-HB2?detail=email&can_id=af3794f2758d0c72ac0763afb2350d28&source=email-cartoon-trump-smash&email_referrer=cartoon-trump-smash___56058&email_subject=to-be-arab-and-american&link_id=17

PUNISHING WOMEN FOR ILLEGAL ABORTIONS

Donald Trump has created quite a stir saying women having illegal abortions should be punished.  Everyone feigns such outrage, but women are and have been punished right now for having abortions.

In 2014, a woman in Pennsylvania has been sentenced to 18 months in jail for illegally procuring so-called “morning after” pills on the Internet for her 16-year-old daughter, who had an unwanted pregnancy.

In 2011, an Iowa pregnant woman fell down a flight of stairs and  confided in the nurse that she hadn't always been sure she'd wanted the baby. She'd considered both adoption and abortion before ultimately deciding to keep the child. Next thing Taylor knew, she was being arrested for attempted feticide. Apparently the nurse and doctor thought that Taylor threw herself down the stairs on purpose.*

National Advocates For Women in 2014 reported that in Alabama the word child includes even the egg from the moment of fertilization.  Their research finds more than 130 women have been arrested under the chemical endangerment of “children” law. Prosecutors have actually used the law that was meant to protect women to punish those who have used Marijuana or other illegal drugs while pregnant even though the babies were born healthy.

Just in March of this year the Illinois governor signed a bill making abortions illegal for fetus defects like Down’s syndrome and making the donation of fetal tissue a felony crime.  North Dakota previously adopted a bill in 2013 banning fetal abnormality abortions.

A Tennessee woman faces attempted murder charges after trying to terminate her pregnancy in a state with some of the strictest laws against pregnant women. But unlike similar cases in the past, where women faced jail time for taking illegal abortion pills or simply miscarrying, Anna Yocca used a frighteningly archaic method to end her pregnancy: She inserted a bent metal coat hanger into her uterus.The charge will probably be reduced to aggravated assault later this year because the baby survived though very damaged.**

This is just a sampling of punishment for women having abortions.

Most of the above from:
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/12/global-conservative-religious-movement.html
* https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/04/01/indiana-woman-jailed-for-feticide-its-never-happened-before/
** http://thinkprogress.org/health/2015/12/14/3731679/hanger-abortion-tenneessee/

JOB HIRES, QUITS, AND LAYOFFS FEBRUARY 2016

Things continue to look up in the overall job market, though the recovery in uneven.  See quote and figure from the WSJ below.  Many people lost their homes and retirements in the Great Recession and are yet to recover, thus the angry voters in the ongoing political primaries.

More Americans were hired to start a new job in February than in any month since before the recession that began in 2007—about 5.4 million people.

The data comes from the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, which tracks underlying churn in the U.S. labor market, the millions of people who quit one job or start a new one each month.

Tuesday’s report also showed an increase in the number of people who voluntarily quit a job in February, which rose to about three million from 2.9 million. Labor economists generally regard the overall rate of quitting as a sign of the labor market’s health. When the economy is thriving, more people have the opportunity or the confidence to search for a better job.*

 * http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/04/05/americans-hiring-rose-in-february-to-the-highest-since-before-the-recession/?mod=djemRTE_h

WHITE FLOWERING RED BUD?

Hard to believe, but there are native Red Bud that bloom white!  Seems a contradiction in terms.

[Ceris canadensis] Forma alba has white flowers.
‘Royal White’ is a white-flowered cultivar noted for its pure white flowers. ‘Royal White’ was discovered in 1940 by Royal Oakes of Bluffs, Illinois, as a seedling from a native tree. It is uncommonly found in commerce. The more common white redbud found in commerce is C. canadensis f.[ for Forma] alba. In comparison to C. canadensis f. alba, ‘Royal White’ is a more compact tree, blooms earlier, is more floriferous and produces larger flowers. ‘Royal White’ is synonymous with and sometimes called ‘Royal’.