LEAGUE OF NATIONS ALL OVER AGAIN?

The League of Nations for world peace was apparently the brain child of our president Woodrow Wilson, but in the end the United States didn't sign on, essentially killing the League of Nations.  As C. Northcote Parkinson has said (paraphrased) "Buildings for the League of Nations were finished in 1938 and so was the League of Nations."  I have used this phrase before that appears in his book "Parkinson's Law."*

There are complaints that the Iranian Nuclear-Inspections Agreement don't go far enough and should cover many more items of Iran's abuse.  Indeed I have covered this approach in item 7 of my Basics Of Bureaucracy title "Keep It Simple."**  Achieving bureaucratic things goes with a power law.  It is not twice as hard to achieve two things compared to one thing in one plan, it is 2squared times as hard, or 4 times as hard.  I believe it was right to approach only one matter in the negotiations. Even that proved to be nearly impossible.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/basics-of-bureaucracy.html
This is not however, Parkinson's Law which states that work expands to fill the time available.  This saying is a favorite of mine used many times.  I have proposed a corollary that states, "Work expands to cover all the flat spaces available."

** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/basics-of-bureaucracy.html#uds-search-results

IRANIAN-NUCLEAR INSPECTION AGREEMENT

Recently (July 16, 2015, op-ed in the Wall Street Journal*) William Tobey commented on the 24 day inspection delay in the Iranian-Nuclear Inspections and claimed the time could be delayed for months for reasons he itemizes.  I am unable to evaluate his claims except to say that it is only the suspected sites that are in the 24-day period.  In declared sites, inspections can be made at any time: 24/7.  This matter was also clarified by a letter-to-the-editor of the WSJ on July 23,2015.  I have heard President Obama and Secretary Karry say this on TV prior to Mr. Tobey's op-ed dated July 16, 2015 so I don't understand his confusion on this matter.

Also on July 26, the WSJ published an editorial properly talking about the 24-day period to search suspicious sites.  They too say that Iran may interpret items in the agreement to stretch out the 240day waiting period.  They say that the current declared sites all were once suspicious sites and conclude that Iran will have plenty of time manipulate the inspections in order to carry out their mission.  I'm not sure how long it takes to set up a site, carry out its function, dismantle it and clean up the site sufficiently that the inspectors can't detect what is going on.  I suspect a matter of, say, 6 mo. is insufficient having been involved in complex research problems involving radioactivity (e.g. nuclear test detection and nuclear waste disposal), but current researchers on making bomb facilities should know better than I.

So far as I know, this matter of the 24 days to inspect suspicious sites has yet to be thoroughly discussed, Mr. Tobey's analysis being the most thorough.  I for one would like to read a rebuttal to Mr. Tobey's claims.

Neither Mr. Tobey nor the WSJ put forth an alternative Nuclear-Inspection Plan.  I presume they hope that increasing sanctions would eventually bring Iran to its knees and say "Uncle."  Well escalation didn't work all that well in the Vietnam War nor did 40+ yrs of sanctions on Cuba bring them to their knees.  Dictatorships can let their people suffer  for very long periods of time.

And what do critics think will happen if the Agreement is not accepted?  How long will adversarial countries like Russia and China stick with us on sanctions, much less increase them?  As others have claimed, I thank that without inspections, Iran will have a free hand to go ahead with making a bomb, if they wish to.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-iranian-nuclear-inspection-charade-1437001048

IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHOSE OX IS GETTING GORED

Republican candidates are objecting to Donald Trump criticizing them.  Marco Rubio says Trump has no class.  Fair enough, but then he goes on to say our current president has no class.  I guess being rude only applies when you are criticizing someone in your own party.  Those in the other party are fair game.

"We already have president now who has no class," Rubio said, citing Obama doing selfie-stick videos and inviting YouTube stars to the White House and going on "comedy shows" to talk about serious issues such as Iran.

"It is important for us to have a presidency that restores dignity and class to the White House," Rubio said.*

A problem for Republicans is that everything Trump has to say are feelings held by a lot of Republicans.  There are those who DO feel that Mexicans are sub-human.  There ARE those who feel that you shouldn't be captured, but go down fighting or commit suicide if fighting is impossible.  Some say that Trump has peaked.  Well I don't know about that, but I do hope those who favor what he says are only 25% of the Republican Party.

* http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/marco-rubio-says-obama-like-trump-has-no-class/2238257

JUST UNBELIEVABLE!

So a lady who happens to be African American is pulled over on an open highway because she didn’t signal a lane change in Texas.  It is against the law to do so.  Well, I think it was a cheap shot, but did the officer just write her a citation and go on his way?  No, he demanded that she put out a cigarette (Is smoking in a car against the law?) and yelled at her a number of times to get out of the car.  She eventually did this when the officer threatened to “Light you up.” with his taser.  She ends up being jailed for three days (!) when she dies from asphyxiation.  The claim is that she hung herself with a plastic bag in the jail cell (Why they should have left such a thing in a jail cell, I have no idea).  Or maybe they hung her up or something.  No matter, the problem is SHE WAS STOPPED FOR AN ILLEGAL LANE CHANGE (NO SIGNAL) ON AN OPEN HIGHWAY, SERVED THREE DAYS IN JAIL, AND ENDS UP DEAD.  Dead over an illegal lane change? Unbelievable!  May the saints preserve us.

These sorts of things are happening to African Americans all over the U.S. it seems.  I'm just counting police here and states involved are Missouri, New York, Ohio, and Texas.  Have I missed something?  Remember the guy who choked to death from police activity for selling single cigarettes?  The boy with the pellet gun who was frantically killed by police?

MEDICARE/MEDICAID

Republicans don't like health care for the poor.  Republicans, along with Democrats and Independents, like Medicare, however

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/16/medicare-medicaid-popularity-high-ahead-of-birthday.html

BUILDER SENTIMENT AT DECADE HIGH

The nation's single-family home builders are feeling a lot better about their business, even as mortgage rates move higher. A monthly sentiment index rose to the highest level in July since November of 2005.*
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"This month's reading is in line with recent data showing stronger sales in both the new and existing home markets as well as continued job growth," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "However, builders still face a number of challenges, including shortages of lots and labor."*

Construction was the hardest hit industry during the "Great Recession," but now has labor shortages.  We missed a major opportunity to do infrastructure improvements at low cost by not doing them in the "Great Recession."
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U.S. commercial real estate is the midst of a big foreign investment boom that is likely to continue, according to one prominent expert.**

China is leading the boom, but money also is coming from Canada, Norway, the Middle East and elsewhere, Jonathan Gray, global head of real estate at Blackstone, said at the Delivering Alpha conference presented by CNBC and Institutional Investor.**

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"There's not a ton of building going on, leverage in the system is reasonable and we still think this economic cycle has a bit of a ways to go," he said. "That's why we're optimistic."**

* http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/16/builder-sentiment-hits-decade-high-rising-to-60.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/15/real-estate-boom-not-over-blackstone-expert-says-at-delivering-alpha.html

WHO WORKS THE MOST AND LEAST?

If you work 40hrs/wk for 52 weeks, you will have worked 2080 hrs for the year.  So who works the longest and who works the least in 38 major countries (China not included)?*

Who works the longest? Turns out it is Mexico (2,237 hrs/yr), South Korea (2,i63 hrs/yr), and, surprise, Greece (2.060hrs/yr).  A problem with Greece is that only about 52% of the labor force works.  In contrast 60.5% of the Mexican labor force works and 61.5% (rank 21 out of 38 major countries) of the South Koreans (rank 7).

Then who works the least?  Surprise.  In 38th and last place is Germany at 1,362 hrs/yr, followed by Norway at 1,408 hrs/yr and Netherlands at 1,421 hrs/yr. Germany has about 60.3% of the work force occupied (20th place), Norway at 71.2%(!) (3rd place), and Netherlands at 65.2%  (10th place).  Who beats Norway for work force participation - Sweden at 71.5% (1,607 hrs/yr), and at Number 1 Iceland at 81.4% (1,846 hrs/yr).

The hottest economies were Latvia, Chile and Turkey, all at 4.2% increase in GDP during 2013.  Not surprisingly, Greece had the worst economic performance with a 3.9% decline in GDP, followed by Italy at -1.7% and Portugal at -1.6% (because it is mentioned so much,Spain declined by 1.2%).

Well, where was the U.S. in this?  We ranked 16th in hours-worked/year (1,788 hrs/yr), 9th in GDP gain at 2.2%, and 13th in work force participation (63.2%).

* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/07/10/are-americans-working-less-than-the-rest-of-the-world/?mod=djemRTE_h

MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES CONTINUE TO DECLINE

As can be seen from the figure below, delinquent payments on mortgages continue to decline and are at levels last seen in 2008.*

* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/07/09/the-share-of-americans-behind-on-home-equity-loans-is-the-lowest-since-2008/?mod=djemRTE_h

DEFENSE SPENDING AS PERCENT OF GDP

A recent report shows how much ahead the U.S. is relative to other countries in defense spending as percent of GDP:*

(Click to Enlarge)

Note that only four countries are spending at least 2% of their GDP on armed forces, the recommended number.  They have another figure giving the amount of defense spending for each country in British Pounds that looks even more dramatic.

Of course here in the U.S., there are those who feel that we could never spend enough on defense.  One of our problems is that we have our forces spread all over the world and have done so since WW-II.  If your goal is to preserve American favorability in trade (imports as well as exports), then you must maintain huge armed forces.  And then we "must" continue to develop new and more expense "defense" items in case of another world war.

*

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/ampp3d/nato-summit-members-not-pulling-4156751

WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION'S LONG DROP

The thing I don't understand about the U.S. drop in workforce participation rate is how are these people living?  The men's drop is remarkable and started before 1990.  The women are dropping out too, but started later around the year 2000.  This drop for women is contrary to all other major countries!*  In the second figure, note the spectacular rise in workforce participation rate of women in Japan.  The drop of men in Japan's workforce participation rate started in the 1970s, but began to rise again around 1995 and has leveled off in recent years.

* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/06/26/the-u-s-stands-out-on-labor-force-participation-rates/

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING IN MAY HIGHEST SINCE 2008

U.S. construction spending advanced 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.036 trillion in May, the highest level since October 2008, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.*

* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/07/01/u-s-construction-spending-hits-new-postrecession-high/?mod=djemRTE_h