When I was very small, my mother coached me on going to my first day at kindergarten. she would let me off and pick me up so I wasn't lost but in good care in the meantime. So when she let me off for school, I just marched in with no crying or hysterics. After school, my mother did pick me up and took me to a candy store to get a piece of candy for being such a good boy. While I was trying to decide what piece of candy I wanted, the store keeper asked my mother what the event was that was being honored. She said for being a good boy at my first day of school to which the store keeper replied, "Before you know it he will be in college." I cried and cried because I knew I couldn't do college work.
But wait, there is a sequel to this funny story. As it turned out, I was to spend 11 years in college accumulating Bachelor of Science and Bachelor of Geological Engineering degrees, a Master of Science, and, from the Marines of educational institutions, a Ph.D.
If truth be known, I am of rather average intellect so how did all this happen? For one thing you have to want it or be highly motivated or as one professor commented, "You've got a bit of a bull dog in you."
I recognized that in the Earth sciences, there was a lot of terminology (Medicine would be another field requiring lots of memorization.). I've been told you cannot improve your memory, but that is not true. After school while I waited for my mother's piano teaching to be over, I would practice memorizing poems, any poem of my choice. I got so at one time I could recite the entire Gunga Din by Rudyard Kipling and The Ballad Of The Northern Lights by Robert Service. I could look down a list of 20 items twice and remember it for 48 hrs, which proved invaluable for tests.
The last of the principal things was to learn not to panic. If I couldn't answer the first question, I should go on until I found one that I could answer, then look for another and work my way to the hardest question. Sometimes by that point my mind had cleared, and I could even answer the hard question. Later in my brief teaching career, I found I could control the average grade on a test to a large extent as to whether I put the hardest question first or last on the examination In fact I got so I would work myself up before an examination. I'd jump up and down and repeat strings of things I knew on the examination topic (Repeat the 30 uranium minerals was one I recall or how to derive the radioactive decay equation was another.). Get the blood circulating and the mind sharpened. I call it intellectual athletics.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Sunday, October 21, 2012
AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM
For some time, I have been made uncomfortable about the frequent appeal to American Exceptionalism.* Why do we need to keep mentioning ourselves of this? It seems to me that if you really believe this, you don't have to keep talking about it. Now it turns out that I am not the only one who is bothered by this: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/21/sunday-review/candidates-and-the-truth-about-america.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20121021. Please read this article as I will not address the health issues contained therein.
Yes, of course, we are the only nation to send men to the moon and the only nation not only to bring them back alive but with loads of lunar samples to boot. To do this we had to develop miniaturized computers for lunar exploration (Apollo Program) and Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (IBM). We developed the World Wide Web (WWW) and the Geographic Positioning system (GPS), originally for military purposes. These were all Federal government initiatives. Once given these tools, private industry has been able to develop them further into civilian use. It was a great ride. The main role of private industry is to take an invention and incrementally improve it. Thus we have smart phones like Blackberries and iPhones I, II, III, IV, and now V among others. After some false starts, we now have iPad I, II, and III plus many other tablet computers by other companies. Slowly people are beginning to pay bills with their smart phones. And a multitude of companies offer goods for sale on the internet. These are all wonderful gadgets, but they are not the grand projects of yesteryear.
It was said after WW-II that jet aircraft would find military purposes, but would always be too expensive for commercial use. Now the airline industry is dominated by jet aircraft. On a trip to Hawaii several years ago, a rancher told us that he economically shipped his cattle back to the mainland on Boeing 747s. He could even physically load more cattle on the airplane, but he couldn't because it would overheat the plane. Wonderful. Incidentally, the Boeing 747 was originally developed for military purposes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747).
But somewhere along the line, we seemed to lose it. When? I think it was when we passed up development of the supersonic commercial airplane in the early 1970s. We have competitors now. Our automobile industry let the Germans and the Japanese into the market with more reliable automobiles. I heard the other day that the best selling automobile in California is the Toyota Prius, a hybrid of gasoline and electric motors. We couldn't develop a commercial hybrid car in this country because gasoline was too cheap. There was no incentive for American's to buy high milage gasoline cars because the annual cost of gasoline was at noise level so they had to be developed elsewhere where the price of gasoline is high. Cheap gasoline is slowly disappearing because it sells on global markets that control the price to a large extent. Yes, the Federal government is trying to get the electric car developed so maybe we will catch up on the next generation of automobiles. It is a fine goal with lots of Americans saying it is not worth the effort and cheering every failure. We probably can look forward to growth of the natural gas automobile, something I rode in when in Japan in 1965, but you do lose trunk space.
In solar energy, we have many competitors, but it is gradually getting cheaper. Our government did try to develop solar panels that did not use expensive glass (Solyndra; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solyndra), but the glass panel industry lowered the price of glass to make the cylindrical solid state panels uneconomic and the company declared bankruptcy. We might have cheered forcing down the price of solar panel glass, but all the emphasis was on the failure of the company. I would be surprised if something like the Solyndra method is developed by some other country in the future.
What I find strangest of all is the growing claims that college is not worth it or what I call the Dumbing Down of America: (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/10/dumbing-down-of-america-if-you-listen.html)
We have lost the spirit of exceptionalism in this country. We can get it back if we stop having such negative leadership and return to having more optimistic leadership. Stop emphasizing why we shouldn't do things and return to a can do spirit. Quit insisting that government can't develop things when history has shown that they can.
* A word not in my spell checker, by the way, but see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_exceptionalism
Thursday, October 18, 2012
PRESIDENTS AND THE PRICE OF GASOLINE
The following is excerpted from CNBC (October 18, 2012): https://www.cnbc.com/id/49461923. You are encouraged to read the whole article.
Recent history seems to have borne out that view. Despite the recent Bush administration's strong support for the oil and gas industry, pump prices rose from a low of about $1.20 a gallon in late 2001 to a peak of $4 a gallon before crashing below $2 shortly before he left office in 2009. Shortly after Obama took office, prices began a steady climb and kept rising but remain just shy of that 2009 peak.
................................
U.S. energy policy has encouraged the exploration and production of crude oil, the biggest single variable in the pump price of gasoline, through tax subsidies that promote drilling. Those tax breaks, which were expanded during the Bush administration, have helped spur a boom in domestic production that has reversed a 20-year decline in U.S.
U.S. demand for gasoline peaked in 2007 and has been declining steadily since then. Part of the reason, as Obama mentioned in Tuesday’s debate, is that the recession cut into demand for energy. But gasoline consumption is also falling because the cars and trucks are becoming more fuel-efficient. Obama cited his administration’s efforts to drive fuel efficiency standards higher.
As domestic demand has fallen, U.S. refiners have continued to squeeze more out of each barrel of oil. If the U.S. market were a closed system, the surplus gasoline would tend to drive down prices. But the system isn’t closed. With domestic demand falling and capacity inching higher, refiners have been exporting gasoline to overseas markets. Last year, the U.S. became a net exporter of gasoline and other refined products for the first time since 1949. (BOLDING MINE FOR EMPHASIS)
Meanwhile, the price of gasoline is FALLING! Excerpted from CNBC (October 17, 2012).: https://www.cnbc.com/id/49449346 Again I encourage you to read the whole article.
Recent history seems to have borne out that view. Despite the recent Bush administration's strong support for the oil and gas industry, pump prices rose from a low of about $1.20 a gallon in late 2001 to a peak of $4 a gallon before crashing below $2 shortly before he left office in 2009. Shortly after Obama took office, prices began a steady climb and kept rising but remain just shy of that 2009 peak.
................................
U.S. energy policy has encouraged the exploration and production of crude oil, the biggest single variable in the pump price of gasoline, through tax subsidies that promote drilling. Those tax breaks, which were expanded during the Bush administration, have helped spur a boom in domestic production that has reversed a 20-year decline in U.S.
U.S. demand for gasoline peaked in 2007 and has been declining steadily since then. Part of the reason, as Obama mentioned in Tuesday’s debate, is that the recession cut into demand for energy. But gasoline consumption is also falling because the cars and trucks are becoming more fuel-efficient. Obama cited his administration’s efforts to drive fuel efficiency standards higher.
As domestic demand has fallen, U.S. refiners have continued to squeeze more out of each barrel of oil. If the U.S. market were a closed system, the surplus gasoline would tend to drive down prices. But the system isn’t closed. With domestic demand falling and capacity inching higher, refiners have been exporting gasoline to overseas markets. Last year, the U.S. became a net exporter of gasoline and other refined products for the first time since 1949. (BOLDING MINE FOR EMPHASIS)
Meanwhile, the price of gasoline is FALLING! Excerpted from CNBC (October 17, 2012).: https://www.cnbc.com/id/49449346 Again I encourage you to read the whole article.
A dramatic spiral for gasoline prices in some key battleground states comes just three weeks before the U.S. presidential elections.
Ohio voters have watched prices at the gas pump drop by nearly 20 cents on average in the past week. At the same time, retail gas prices have plunged more than 10 cents in Wisconsin and Illinois.
.....................................
"I suspect that both candidates can guarantee $3 to $3.25 gal gasoline in Ohio after this week's gasoline debacle," said OPIS analyst Tom Kloza. "You will see some sharp retail drops in battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, and Nevada in the next few weeks."
.......................................
But while the notion that the government could somehow control gasoline prices is appealing, the reality is that the price you pay is set daily, sometimes hourly, by market forces around the world.
A series of U.S. refinery glitches and tight supplies in some regions caused gasoline prices to surge earlier this month to the highest prices since the spring. But the switch to a less expensive winter grade of gasoline, weak refinery demand and increase of supplies in certain areas caused gasoline prices to start coming down. An unexpected increase in U.S. gasoline supplies in the past week could cause pump prices to fall even further.
Monday, October 15, 2012
WOMEN AND MAMMOGRAMS
Dr. Jill Vecchio, a Colorado Radiologist who is head of the Breast cancer section at Lutheran Hospital claims that women now can have mammograms only every other year starting at age 50 and going to age 74. If the exams are given every year the physician is subject to a fine and can even be put in jail.* I don't have a dog in this fight, but I did find the following:
Medicare
As a part of the Affordable Care Act, Medicare covers the full cost of a mammogram once every 12 months for all women with Medicare aged 40 and over. (Women are eligible for Medicare if they are age 65 and older, are disabled, or have end-stage renal disease.) Medicare also pays for a clinical breast exam when it is done for screening or prevention. See the whole article at: http://www.cancer.org/Cancer/
Thus, I cannot confirm the hysterical claim by the good breast cancer specialist who says mammograms are allowed only every other year beginning at age 50 and that it is illegal to perform mammograms every year and that she could be fined and put in jail. As nearly as I can tell, the breast cancer specialist has a political ax to grind and is either ill informed or lying. She gives no reference for her claim.
However I also found the following concerning the age 50 and every other year:
The reason is that, based on the findings, giving mammograms to women every other year from ages 50 to 69 reduces breast cancer deaths by 16.5 percent over a lifetime. If screening is started at age 40 and continued every other year, there's a 19.5 percent lifetime reduction in deaths from breast cancer. That 3 percent difference translates roughly to saving one woman's life for every 1,000 who are screened but also causing hundreds of false positive results (when an abnormality is detected that isn't really cancer) and dozens of unnecessary biopsies. http://abcnews.go.
The Mayo clinic recommends that mammograms be annual starting at age 40. (http://www.mayoclinic.com/
In spite of this, there are dangers from mammograms because of the x-rays and false positives: Many women have undergone unnecessary chemotherapy, radiation and mastectomies after receiving false positive results on a mammogram. http://www.naturalnews.com/
A few comments: I am surprised at the small percentage of breast cancer deaths saved by mammograms. I thought it was close to 100%. I am also surprised there is no danger from the extreme compression of the breast in performing mammograms, but I can find no evidence of this: http://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-to-know/health/answering-your-questions-about-mammograms/4076/
* https://www.youtube.com/embed/6e3udzHIiVs?feature=player_detailpage
Saturday, October 13, 2012
THE LIGHT
I had already traversed the campus several times, and the light was still on. I had been in a perfect state of drunkenness, and it seemed that everything should be my way. But The Light, as usual, was on. At the time I was attending a small, well-known west coast institute of technology. The light referred to my office where my office mate was sitting. For some time, I had been pacing about the campus when at the far end of the campus an Indian student shouted, “Hey man! What are you doing? You have already walked the campus many times.”
"Come with me, and I'll show you." We walked down the walk, past the famous old oak, until we came to The Light. I pointed up at it and said, "There, do you see that, that light up there? It is on. One night, just one night, I would like to see it off at this time."
For some time this light had bothered me. Oh, it was indeed possible to come when the light was off. For the light went out at exactly 10:30 every night. In some respects, getting to the office before the light was on wasn't too hard, either. All one had to do was get there before 8:15 in the morning, between 11:30 A.M. and 1:00 P.M., or between 4:30 and 6:10 in the evening. There was a class before 8:15 A.M. so that was no contest, but I hated to rush my supper. It was only at noon that I was often victorious and was able to tell my office mate’s callers that he was swimming a mile, then having his lunch, and would return between 1 and 1:10 PM. Yet, I had come to dread walking into the office when The Light was on. My office mate was friendly enough, all right, and quite helpful, but what I had come to dread was his regular habits. In truth, I was used to being The Student and was strongly affected by the present situation. Several times I had rushed through my supper in order to get to the office first and turn on The Light. Yet, I knew this to be a Pyrrhic victory, and it was unsatisfying. What I craved was to go to office at my leisure and still get there first, at least occasionally.
But here I was, pacing back and forth with the light from the office streaming out on me, muttering oaths, dreading the moment that I must enter, noting well that The Light was the only one on in the building. Sometimes I would stay extra late after my office mate left just to enjoy the light being on because I wanted it on and to play the record player as loudly as I wanted. Oh, the joy and freedom of it! But now The Light was on already and here I was cowering before it, out in the dark.
"Once more across the campus," I said. "Just one more time, and then maybe I can stand it."
With this the Indian student left me to my misery and struck out on his own. On my return from the walk across the campus, I muttered, “What am I!” With that I pulled out my key and rushed up to the third floor. I couldn’t see any light peeking out from under the door, searching for me, laughing at me, nor could I hear any sound from the radio which my office mate always played. I steeled myself and put the key to the lock, twisted, pushed, and opened the door.
The light beamed out. I nodded, blinking. There was a wide-eyed return glance through thick glasses. “Sounds like Handel,” I said.
“The Messiah,” he replied.
1957
Revised 1999
"Come with me, and I'll show you." We walked down the walk, past the famous old oak, until we came to The Light. I pointed up at it and said, "There, do you see that, that light up there? It is on. One night, just one night, I would like to see it off at this time."
For some time this light had bothered me. Oh, it was indeed possible to come when the light was off. For the light went out at exactly 10:30 every night. In some respects, getting to the office before the light was on wasn't too hard, either. All one had to do was get there before 8:15 in the morning, between 11:30 A.M. and 1:00 P.M., or between 4:30 and 6:10 in the evening. There was a class before 8:15 A.M. so that was no contest, but I hated to rush my supper. It was only at noon that I was often victorious and was able to tell my office mate’s callers that he was swimming a mile, then having his lunch, and would return between 1 and 1:10 PM. Yet, I had come to dread walking into the office when The Light was on. My office mate was friendly enough, all right, and quite helpful, but what I had come to dread was his regular habits. In truth, I was used to being The Student and was strongly affected by the present situation. Several times I had rushed through my supper in order to get to the office first and turn on The Light. Yet, I knew this to be a Pyrrhic victory, and it was unsatisfying. What I craved was to go to office at my leisure and still get there first, at least occasionally.
But here I was, pacing back and forth with the light from the office streaming out on me, muttering oaths, dreading the moment that I must enter, noting well that The Light was the only one on in the building. Sometimes I would stay extra late after my office mate left just to enjoy the light being on because I wanted it on and to play the record player as loudly as I wanted. Oh, the joy and freedom of it! But now The Light was on already and here I was cowering before it, out in the dark.
"Once more across the campus," I said. "Just one more time, and then maybe I can stand it."
With this the Indian student left me to my misery and struck out on his own. On my return from the walk across the campus, I muttered, “What am I!” With that I pulled out my key and rushed up to the third floor. I couldn’t see any light peeking out from under the door, searching for me, laughing at me, nor could I hear any sound from the radio which my office mate always played. I steeled myself and put the key to the lock, twisted, pushed, and opened the door.
The light beamed out. I nodded, blinking. There was a wide-eyed return glance through thick glasses. “Sounds like Handel,” I said.
“The Messiah,” he replied.
1957
Revised 1999
Monday, October 8, 2012
THE OBAMACARE "COMMITTEE"
One frequently hears about a committee (panel or board) in Obamacare that is going to make judgements about what benefits you will get. Most recently Mitt Romney made the complaint in the first presidential election debate. The committee is actually called the Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB) or, originally the Independent Medicare Advisory Board. This IPAB is explicitly restricted to making savings without affecting rationing, beneficiary costs, coverage or quality of care , but is given the task of meeting certain goals as to the cost of Medicare.* Furthermore Congress can overrule the Board with a supermajority vote, but then must find the savings elsewhere.* Lastly the IPAB consists of 15 members appointed by the president but subject to congressional confirmation.* The President must consult with the Majority Leader of the Senate on the appointment of three members, the Speaker of the House of Representatives on appointment of three others, and then consult for three each with the Minority Leaders of these two bodies.* This leaves three to be appointed by the Administration as ex-officio non-voting members.* The members will serve six years in staggered terms.*
The obfuscation of the real IPAB purpose is, of course, done for political reasons. IPAB in fact replaces a previous Medicare Payment Advisory Committee (Med Pac) whose recommendation of cuts to Medicare have been ignored by Congress.* You are advised to read the entire article in Wikipedia.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Payment_Advisory_Board)
The obfuscation of the real IPAB purpose is, of course, done for political reasons. IPAB in fact replaces a previous Medicare Payment Advisory Committee (Med Pac) whose recommendation of cuts to Medicare have been ignored by Congress.* You are advised to read the entire article in Wikipedia.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Payment_Advisory_Board)
Friday, October 5, 2012
EIGHTEEN SMALL BUSINESS TAX CUTS
The 18 Small Business tax cuts frequently claimed by President Obama are excepted from:
http://boss.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/02/revisiting-president-obamas-small-business-tax-cut-claims/
From the 2009 stimulus, the Affordable Care Act, and other legislation:
• A new small-business health care tax credit.
• A tax credit for hiring unemployed workers in 2010.
• Temporary extension of bonus depreciation tax incentives to support new investment.
• 75 percent exclusion of small-business capital gains, for stock acquired in 2009 and 2010.
• Temporary expansion of limits on small-business expensing.
• Five-year carryback of net operating losses, available through fall 2009.
• Reduction of the built-in gains holding period for small businesses to seven years, from 10, in 2009 and 2010.
• Temporary small-business estimated tax payment relief.
Tax provisions in the 2010 Small Business Jobs Act (both The Agenda and the I.R.S. have published summaries):
• 100 percent exclusion of small-business capital gains, for stock acquired in late 2010 and 2011.
• A further increase to the expensing limit to $500,000 for 2011 (in 2012, the limit falls to $139,000).
• A further extension of 50 percent bonus depreciation through 2010.
• A new deduction for health care expenses for the self-employed in 2010.
• Tax relief and simplification for cellphone deductions.
• An increase in the deduction for entrepreneurs’ start-up expenses in 2010.
• A five-year carry-back of general business credits in 2010.
• Lower penalties for failing to report listed (that is, abusive) tax shelters.
Since then, the president has added two more tax cuts to the list, according to a Small Business Administration spokeswoman, who supplied an update:
• Increasing bonus depreciation to 100 percent for 2011 (from the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization and Job Creation Act of 2010, the compromise law that keeps the Bush income tax cuts in place through this year; for 2012, bonus depreciation falls to 50 percent and then expires).
• Tax credits for hiring veterans, ranging from $2,400 to $9,600 (from the Veterans Opportunity to Work to Hire Heroes Act of 2011).
• A tax credit for hiring unemployed workers in 2010.
• Temporary extension of bonus depreciation tax incentives to support new investment.
• 75 percent exclusion of small-business capital gains, for stock acquired in 2009 and 2010.
• Temporary expansion of limits on small-business expensing.
• Five-year carryback of net operating losses, available through fall 2009.
• Reduction of the built-in gains holding period for small businesses to seven years, from 10, in 2009 and 2010.
• Temporary small-business estimated tax payment relief.
Tax provisions in the 2010 Small Business Jobs Act (both The Agenda and the I.R.S. have published summaries):
• 100 percent exclusion of small-business capital gains, for stock acquired in late 2010 and 2011.
• A further increase to the expensing limit to $500,000 for 2011 (in 2012, the limit falls to $139,000).
• A further extension of 50 percent bonus depreciation through 2010.
• A new deduction for health care expenses for the self-employed in 2010.
• Tax relief and simplification for cellphone deductions.
• An increase in the deduction for entrepreneurs’ start-up expenses in 2010.
• A five-year carry-back of general business credits in 2010.
• Lower penalties for failing to report listed (that is, abusive) tax shelters.
Since then, the president has added two more tax cuts to the list, according to a Small Business Administration spokeswoman, who supplied an update:
• Increasing bonus depreciation to 100 percent for 2011 (from the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization and Job Creation Act of 2010, the compromise law that keeps the Bush income tax cuts in place through this year; for 2012, bonus depreciation falls to 50 percent and then expires).
• Tax credits for hiring veterans, ranging from $2,400 to $9,600 (from the Veterans Opportunity to Work to Hire Heroes Act of 2011).
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