Sunday, January 26, 2014

GLOBAL HOUSEKEEPING: The Challenge Is Issued (1990)


Comment:    From Geotimes, 1990, p. 6

A revolution in research, especially Earth-Science research, began in the 1970s as the public became more concerned about the environment.  It was on the first Earth Day, April 22, 1970, that the famous cartoon character Pogo rendered his immortal phrase, “We have met the enemy an’ he is us.”

However I prefer to begin with the Clean Air Act of 1970 because this was the beginning for major funding for environmental studies.  Although the act is not perfect and often criticized, figures from EPA show that particulates, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide all have decreased markedly in our air.

The Clean Water Act of 1972 followed the Clean Air Act.  Progress has been slower for water, but some key pollutants, such as lead, have decreased significantly.

We earth scientists know that, “The present is the key to the past,” so we normally look backward in time.  In the environmental and natural hazards areas, the present and the past can also be used to forecast the future. Climate is an example of how geologic prediction can be used most effectively.  And now, climate issues are of global concern.

We have become increasingly aware through the global politics of the last year, that we are citizens of one world, that many of the actions we take not only affect us but others as well.  Global housekeeping is a challenge for us all.


Release of gaseous pollutants into the atmosphere knows no national boundaries.  We are learning that things done with the best intentions can foul the global environment.  We have learned just how difficult it is to produce something that is totally benign, yet beneficial to humanity.  For example, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) – those wonder compounds developed as nontoxic, nonexplosive, colorless, odorless refrigerants to replace the dangerous ammonia and  sulfur dioxide – degrade the ozone layer in the stratisphere.

Evidence indicates that certain gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFCs, and ozone) are increasing in the troposphere.  These radiatively active gases let short wavelength radiation from the sun pass through Earth’s atmosphere yet absorb heat reflected from Earth.  In the simplest model, the heat absorbed from the troposphere will be proportional to the amount of these radiatively active gases – the more of these gases, the higher the global temperature.  This concept is now well known as the “greenhouse” effect.

If the greenhouse effect develops as general circulation models suggest it will, consequences will accompany increasing global mean temperatures.  The global warming will be greater at higher latitudes than near the equator; winters will warm more than summers, and midcontinent areas will experience increasing dryness.  Some other possible consequences are that sea levels may continue to rise, perhaps by a half meter or more, and violent storms may increase in number and severity.  Increased temperatures in the troposphere could result in cooling of the stratisphere which, with CFSs in the stratosphere, could result in deterioration of the ozone layer.

However, neither rising sea level nor increasing temperature is a necessary consequence of the increasing human contributions of greenhouse gasses.  Even with some increase in increased warming, expected increases in resulting precipitation might result in accumulation of snow and ice in polar regions rather than in melting of the ice caps.  It is possible that greenhouse could be counterbalanced.  For example, warmer temperature should result in more evaporation of ocean water, increasing the humidity of the atmosphere.  More humidity means more moisture is available for forming more low-level clouds that could have a cooling effect.  The increase in low-level coulds need not be large, only about four percent, to completely counteract the expected greenhouse effect over the next 50 years.  Were it not for the geologic record, researchers could easily develop models where the global mean temperature remains constant.  However, the geologic record shows that temperature fluctuates and that it is about as warm now as it has been at any time in the last two million years.

All this has been well covered by the news media.  But seldom considered is the likelihood of some changes occurring from greenhouse gas buildup even without global warming.  For example, increasing carbon dioxide would have a fertilizing effect and increased cloudiness might also result in increased precipitation.  Both of these possibilities could stimulate plant growth.  Of course growth of weeds would also be stimulated, and increased precitation might cause flooding.  Global warming is receiving considerable official attention.  The number of congressional hearing on the topic has increased; global change is a presidential initiative; and plans are well advanced for congressional action.  Whether we are convinced that the proposed warming will or will not occur, most of us agree that it is dangerous to let these greenhouse gases accumulate.

But we should not delude ourselves.  The prime source of basic energy for the next 20 years is going to be coal.  The quickest and largest savings on carbon-dioxide emissions can be expected to come from conservation.

Maximizing natural-gas and solar-power use as well as major reforestation efforts will help.  The value of nuclear power will be reconsidered.  As to long-term options, the major effort in the U.S. in on nuclear-fusion power with a budget of about $350 million a year.   Also, several other countries are exploring the use of hot-dry rock geothermal power.

As we work toward a better future, it is bound to be a bumpy course.   However, as for now, we can take some comfort that life expectancy is still increasing in spite of current levels of pollution.  The global population is growing, but, so far, technology has kept ahead, in spite of changes in climate.  Food distribution may be a problem, but currently food production is not.

To create an even better life will be a challenge just as it always has been.  This challenge is going to require hard work and all kinds of talent: We will need geologists as well as engineers, philosophers as well as scientists, and, perhaps, informed teachers most of all.

Bruce R. Doe     
Mailstop 923, U.S. Geological
Survey, Reston, Va. 2209

The University of Missouri, Rolla, presented Doe with an Honorary Doctor of Science degree last May at its graduation ceremony. The text here is adopted from a speech Doe made for the occasion.


Friday, January 24, 2014

THE PROBLEM WITH INTERRUPTING (A Cautionary Tale) BY LINDA EVE DIAMOND (Poem)

She said I couldn’t love you
He snapped a quick reply:
You said you did, you lied to me, but then all women lie.

With that, he gathered up his things and spewed a harsh goodbye.
She would have loved him always, but he had one awful flaw.
He interrupted her every sentence, her every little thought.

But oh, how she cried when he walked out the door.
The rest of her sentence would have been 
more!
©2013 Linda Eve Diamond, The Beauty of Listening

(First published at www.LindaEveDiamond.com in 2011)

Monday, January 20, 2014

ROCKHOUND BY VIOLET NESDOLY (Poem)

Soapstone and sandstone
porphyry, slag…
I fill all my pockets
and carry a bag.

Scoria, gabbro
schist, mica and flint
in rust, white or yellow
smooth, banded or glint.

Argillite, anthracite
quartz and feldspar—
hurry them home
to my rock collect jar.

Tiger’s eyes, unakites
agates and shales
dream of their middle-earth
riverbed tales.

Travertine, basalt
obsidian, chalk.
Listen. Be still.
You might hear the rocks talk.

Serpentine, marble
jade, pumice and tuff…
I can’t stop collecting
I’ve never enough!

This poem first appeared on the blog of poet Tabatha Yeatts (July 2012) and is reprinted from
"My Daily Poem:. (September 16, 2013).


FIRST FIVE STOCK TRADING DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR

A part of the lore of the stock markets is that ass the first five trading days of the new year go, so will the year.  The first five trading days this year were down which signals a down year.*  In addition, the year of mid-term elections (such as 2014) is usually the weakest of the stock market years.  On the other hand, both janet Yellon (new Chairman of the Fed) and Ben Bernanke (outgoing chairman) forecast this will be a good year economically.  If so, I think it would be unusual for the stock markets to go down.

Jose Ursuaa former colleague of mine at Goldman Sachs, has run these numbers all the way back to 1928. He finds that when stocks rallied during the first five days, there was a 75.4 percent chance of a rally for the year. For the period since 1950, the probability rises to 82.9 percent. Few rules in finance are as unambiguous as that. So when the first five days has been net positive for the Standard and Poor’s -- and I’m feeling bullish in any case -- I’m especially confident.


This year I’m still feeling pretty bullish, but the five-day rule is against me. U.S. stocks fell 0.5 percent -- nothing drastic, but down nonetheless. Over the whole period since 1928, a negative start implies a 47.8 percent chance of a negative year; since 1950, the figure’s about the same, 46.4 percent. In both cases, call it 50-50.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-14/what-five-days-of-trading-tell-us-about-2014.html

Sunday, January 19, 2014

BOUGANVELLIA - COSTA RICA

Photograph by Patricia Cox, January 2014, taken with her iPad:



Friday, January 10, 2014

"I AM NOT A BULLY," CHRIS CHRISTIE

The first thing that came to mind when I heard Chris Cristie's comment that, "I am not a bully." was Nixon's statement, "I am not a crook."  Don't get me wrong, I thought that Gov. Chris Christie was admirable on his attention to the devastation of Hurricane Sandy on New Jersey.  He clearly can be ingratiating when he wants to be and be "in your face" when it comes to getting aid for New Jersey.  I can also believe that his close aide, Deputy Chief of Staff Bridget Ann Kelly, never told him about the retribution she ordered against a New Jersey mayor for not endorsing the governor.  It is to preserve deniability by the "big guy," and I presume she knew that if things blew up, which they did, she would have to go as did David Wildstein, a Christie appointee.  I also assume that if Chris Christie ever became president, he would treat other national leaders with respect and probably the ambassadors as well.  But having seen clips over the years of Christie publically outing his constituents over their comments, he is a bully.*

* From the NEW York Times on December 24, 2013: "It began with an anecdote of a New Jersey assemblyman who got a nasty note from Christie after making some relatively innocuous radio comments.

The gesture would come to seem genteel compared with the fate suffered by others in disagreements with Mr. Christie: a former governor who was stripped of police security at public events; a Rutgers professor who lost state financing for cherished programs; a state senator whose candidate for a judgeship suddenly stalled; another senator who was disinvited from an event with the governor in his own district.
In almost every case, Mr. Christie waved off any suggestion that he had meted out retribution. But to many, the incidents have left that impression, and it has been just as powerful in scaring off others who might dare to cross him.
The bridge e-mails show that it's not just Christie. His aides are in on it, too. Christie staffer Bridget Anne Kelly e-mails David Wildstein, a Christie appointee on the Port Authority, saying, “Time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee.” He's a bully with a staff of bullies."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/08/chris-christies-problem-is-that-hes-really-truly-a-bully/
.

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

FRAC OIL AND GAS

(From a post on Motley Fool, Macro Economic Trends and Risks Board # 441799)

I don't know about you, but I don't feel good about the U.S. exporting frac oil.  The news this morning was all excitement over the U.S. becoming the largest exporter of oil in 20 yrs (or something).   I have been for frac oil (and natural gas) because I thought it would get us out of the Middle East debacle. But frac oil uses lots of resources, the most important being an average of 3 million gallons of water PER HOLE. So far as I know, little of this water is recycled for other holes and even less is reclaimed. Water is a resource also! And those vicious compounds that are being poured into the water to "enhance" recovery of oil and natural gas come from something also. You don't just drill a hole and oil or natural gas comes rushing out. A lot else is involved.

And even to export LNG (Liquid Natural Gas), the process is expensive and a LOT of NG is wasted to cool the supply ships and the pipes carrying the LNG and producing the LNG.

Though I can see some value in strategic sales, I donno, it looks like a great waste to me if it is done just for revenue.

Sunday, January 5, 2014

FURTHER THOUGHTS OF LOVE (Poem)

FURTHER THOUGHTS of  LOVE
(Dedicated to My Wife
Upon Our Marriage in year 1990 )

As lovely as an ocean of flowers
On a dewy, cool summer morn.

As warm as a summer’s evening
Under the stars and the moon, now new.

As sweet as the gentle hum of honey bees
Seeking nectar from open blooms.

As indescribable as the smell of the air
After a summer’s soft, cleansing rain.

As enjoyable as the bird’s songs,
Singing to mates, unseen and unknown.

As refreshing as the early morning breeze
Ruffling my hair, caressing my face.

As joyful as being with you,
Sharing the summer’s panorama.

       April 28. 2000

THOUGHTS OF LOVE (Poem)

(Dedicated to My Future Wife on
the 19th Anniversary of Her 39th Birthday)

As lovely as the first snow of fall,
Large flakes mounding on long green needles
Of balsam fur.

As gentle as the rising winter sun
Casting soft pink light through the trees
On a winter morn.

As cozy as a wood fire casting soft light,
Shared with someone special who loves you,
On a winter night.

As soft as a winter fog settles,
Casting stark dark limbs with an icy hue
Around an icy lake.

    February 24,1988

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

ITEMS WITH THE MOST HITS & MY FAVORITES - V

An eclectic blog (November, 2009, through December, 2015) with sections on Biography, Commentary (General, Economics and Investing), Fiction, Health Care, Oil and Gas, Politics, Photographs, and Poetry (Children's Poems, General, Health, and Space Poems) and (new) Poems By Others: http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/reunite-gondwanaland-2009-june-2011.html  As of the April 20, 2016, the blog contains 580 items.

The Reunite Gondwanaland Table of Contents has the most page views of 430.  In the new Poems By Others Section, Ogden Nash's poem Fossils closely following the table of contents: 428 [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/01/fossils-by-ogden-nash-poem.html] as the blog bears down on 38,000 hits.

By the end of 2015 there were five posts that totaled more than 200 page views: My Maternal Grandmother (Biographical) with 209 hits [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/10/my-maternal-grandmother-biographical.html], Muammar Qadaffi And Me (Biographical) with 212 hits [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/12/muammar-qaddafi-and-me-biographical.html] (It was popular because of the overthrow of the Libyan dictator Qadaffi.), The Tea Cup Seismograph with 215 [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-tea-cup-seismograph-biographical.html], You Are So Lucky (Biographical) with 223 hits [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2009/11/you-are-so-lucky.html] (No doubt popular because of the Great Japanese Earthquake of 2011 and deals with my first three days in Japan in 1965).  [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/01/working-underground-my-rational-self.html], and The Break Even Price Of Fracking [ http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/10/break-even-price-of-fracking-oil.html.] with 300 (The only post of mine to break 300).

There are at more than ten others with 100 to 199 hits, none of which are biographical and only one from 2015: The leader among these is Trump Or Cruz [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/12/trump-or-cruz.html] with 177 page views, and followed closely by Working Underground [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/01/working-underground-my-rational-self.html] with 170.  But there are twoe more posts from 2015 topping 100: Who Buys Isis Oil with 104 [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/11/who-buys-isis-oil.html]; and 13 Things That Don't Make Sense (Book Review) - Part I with 100 [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/06/13-things-that-dont-make-sense-book.html].

Each piece I have written is like a child and I love them all, but it is common that some children are loved more than others. My personal favorite continues to be the Effectiveness Of Taxes from May 7, 2010 with 62 hits [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/05/effectiveness-of-taxes.html] followed by Basics of Bureaucracy from July 26, 2011 with 127 hits [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/basics-of-bureaucracy.html]. In the former, I point out why decreasing taxes on individuals is an inefficient way to stimulate the economy. I liked this so much that I refer to it in three other pieces. Alas the reading public did not agree as to its great value. In the latter that was written many years ago, I give some real rules of dealing with bureaucrats in a humorous fashion.

Let me give three Honorable Mentions. I wouldn't say this is a favorite of mine, but it can be important to some, i.e. Preferred Stock Investing from November 27, 2011 with 185 hits [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/11/preferred-stock-investing.html]. I have invested for about 60 years, but never got involved in preferred stocks until the last decade. I would also like to mention one poem Upon the Second Anniversary Of Apollo 11 from January 9, 2010 with only 11 hits, the first landing on the Moon [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/01/upon-second-anniversary-of-apollo-11.html]. Normally a couplet or more just pops into my mind and I construct a poem around it (An example is So How About An Asteroid from July 20, 2011 with 72 hits) that contains my favorite couplet that I have written: Who could possibly be annoyed/About the study of an asteroid. The Second Anniversary of Apollo Eleven, however, was little noticed which I thought was terrible as this was the first time I sat down to compose a poem from scratch.

FINAL THOUGHTS OF LOVE (Poem)

My dear wife of more than 23 yrs died on December 09, 2013 due to complications of a fall.  I wrote her a trilogy of poems on love.  Below is the last.


FINAL THOUGHTS OF LOVE
(In Memory of  Marjorie, My Wife)

I saw you yesterday,
A great white puffy cumulus cloud
Drifting slowly across the sky

You opened up and gave me
One of your beautiful smiles
And then moved on.

I reached out to give you a kiss,
But you were too far beyond my reach
And will be so long as I remain on this Earth.

But some day, some year
I will join you
Two puffy white cumulus clouds

Slowly, slowly
Making our way across the sky
Hand in hand.