Wednesday, January 30, 2013

MEXICAN BORDER SECURITY: HOW MUCH?

As the clip below attests, we have expanded our border security with Mexico considerably, to say the least.

The 2007 McCain/Kennedy immigration bill — the one that failed in the Senate — set out a series of goals for securing the border. As Suzy Khimm reports, even though the bill failed, we’ve met almost all its border security goals anyway. “The 2007 bill proposed to erect 300 miles of vehicle barriers, 370 miles of fencing, 105 radar and camera towers, and four drones; by 2012, we completed 651 miles of vehicle fencing--including 352 miles of pedestrian fencing and 299 vehicle barriers--300 towers, and nine drones, according to Customs and Border Patrol.” (http://webmailb.juno.com/webmail/new/5?session_redirect=true&userinfo=8b254f2f4f26b1dc56d8fe41da329a7b&count=1359561528&cf=SP2&randid=1581243125)

There are those in congress who want to link immigration reform to yet more border security.  How much are we willing to spend to keep illegal Hispanics out and at what damage to our economy?  Illegal immigration has slowed to a trickle which some attest to our poor economy rather than all we are doing on border security.  At some point the cost to keep an illegal immigrant  out of the U.S. soars.  Stringent state anti-illegal immigration laws are further restricting undocumented workers.  At the same time you are hearing of farmers who are not planting full crops or letting part of their crops rot in the fields because they can not get the help to harvest it, mostly done by undocumented workers estimated to be 70% of the workforce. (http://business.time.com/2012/09/21/bitter-harvest-u-s-farmers-blame-billion-dollar-losses-on-immigration-laws/)

It appears to me that border security is not a key issue at this point.  The price tag, until now, has not been public. But AP, using White House budgets, reports obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests and congressional transcripts, tallied it all up: $90 billion in 10 years (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2011/06/26/us-border-security-huge-costs-with-mixed-results-2/).  About a half million illegals were caught in 2010 (463,000 vs. 1.6 million 10 yrs ago).  At this rate, we are spending more than  $180,000 to catch an illegal immigrant.

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

FINANCING MEDICARE B: A COMMENT

In 2010 there were 47.5 million people on Medicare (http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0146.pdf)  Looking at the table, it looks like the number of people on Medicare is growing about 0.1 million/year so in 2013, the number should be close to 47.8 million.  Each of these people pay a deductible of $300 on the first $300 of expenses.  Suppose the deductible is raised by $10 to $310, then $480 million in additional revenues would be raised.  If the deductible is raised by $20 to $320, nearly a billion dollars would be raised.  This should help Medicare expenses considerably and not be too arduous on even those poor who can raise the $300.  Though this option has been discussed elsewhere, it does not receive any press.  I think it is preferable to raising the age of qualification, for example.

As distasteful as it is to our politicians, there should be tort reform too at the very least.

The reduction in reimbursements to doctors, has now been rejected by law and the so-called annual "doctors fix" has been made permanent.

Hospitals have agreed to a lowing of their rates because they expect increased activity from the increased personal coverage of Obamacare.

Saturday, January 26, 2013

BENGHAZI (RIP)

Now that a couple Senators have shown their ill manners to Hillary Clinton over Benghazi, maybe this issue can be put to rest.  Maybe congress will supply more funds for security (If it is a real issue.) or maybe they won't.  A number of Republicans insist on trying to make Benghazi a huge political issue, but it didn't work in the presidential election and it is not working now; they just can't get public notice in spite of much media support.  But I'm sure the issue will come up again if Hillary runs for president in 2014.

I thought that in her testimony it was interesting that closing the consulate in Benghazi had been discussed, but the option had been discarded by the ambassador and Clinton because it was felt that some contact was needed with the "home" of the group that has taken hold of the country in spite of its dangers.  In view of this, perhaps more security should have been provided, but just how many has never been discussed that I know of.  Since the attacking force was estimated to be a couple of thousand, it seems to me that the security would at least have had to be in the hundreds, which probably would have been impossible.  I suspect that though the area was known to be dangerous, no one expected such a large force to attack the consulate.  This turned out to be wrong, of course, and is unfortunate.  But life moves on.

Ronald Reagan had an embassy bombing and the Marine barracks bombing in Lebanon and an embassy bombing in Kuwait; yet, many feel he was a great president.  So I suspect that in the end, Clinton will be forgiven what turned out to be a  bad choice in a distinguished career.

Some people seemed to be surprised that Hillary could fight back against ill manners, but they don't know the group of women who came of age at the beginning of the women's rights era.  They may have had a velvet exterior, but, if that didn't work, they were all nails underneath.   I saw it in geology.  Though a trickle of women geologists already existed, those in the 60s and 70s were still pioneers. And they had to have a lot of determination and iron will to go into "man's" fields.  It would be wise to remember this.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

NO ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS FROM CUBA


Did you know that any Cuban that gets to our shores is a legal immigrant?  Thus when Marco Rubio, whose parents immigrated from Cuba, speaks you must remember that he speaks from a privileged group of immigrants?  Thus his experience is much different from your ordinary Hispanic illegal immigrant and he is not a good spokesman for them.
The wet foot, dry foot policy is the name given to a consequence of the 1995 revision of the Cuban Adjustment Act of 1966 that says, essentially, that anyone who fled Cuba and got into the United States would be allowed to pursue residency a year later. After talks with the Cuban government, the Clinton administration came to an agreement with Cuba that it would stop admitting people found at sea. Since then, in what has become known as the "wet foot, dry foot" policy, a Cuban caught on the waters between the two nations (i.e., with "wet feet") would summarily be sent home or to a third country. One who makes it to shore ("dry feet") gets a chance to remain in the United States, and later would qualify for expedited "legal permanent resident" status and, eventually, U.S. citizenship
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet_feet,_dry_feet_policy

Thus when people are opposed to granting a path to citizenship for Hispanics from, say, Mexico, they should be aware that immigrants from Cuba are given a path and have been for decades.
This post is not intended to be about Marco Rubio but about the privileged status of Cuban immigrants.  He does have some contradictions, however, in that he is for smaller government yet for the space program.  For those who wish to read more about Marco Rubio, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marco_Rubio.

Monday, January 14, 2013

OUTSTANDING EVENTS OF 2012: MY VIEW

Below are my views of the outstanding events of 2012.  Yours may be different.

1.  The reelection of Obama to a second term.  Whether you think the reelection of Obama  was a great success or a great disaster, I choose this as the number one story because I never dreamed he would be reelected because the unemployment figures were too high and, though there was a glacially slow economic recovery, it was not nearly fast enough.  I had even written an article called Best One-Term President Ever? back in August of 2010 from which I never changed my mind (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/08/best-one-term-president-ever.html).  Also whether you like it or not, Obamacare is preserved, a genuinely major piece of legistation (if unwieldy) that many presidents tried to get but couldn't.  But the comeback kid came back again. (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/obama-reelection)

2.  The Sandy Hook Elementary School, Newtown, CT, Massacre.  I give this a high occurrence in December of 2012 a high rating because the massacre of 20 first graders seems to have caught the public attention greater than other mass murders like that at Columbine in Aurora, CO, in April of 1999 or even the Aurora movie theater massacre earlier in 2012 during July.  Of course, the massacre of six school officials in addition to the first graders adds a little to the concern, also.  As a result of this massacre, it seems there might actually be some legislation to curb the use of semi-automatic weapons.  The two most likely seem to be , reducing the size of magazines in the rifles and pistols to 10 bullets and background checks of gun purchasers.  I would actually limit magazines to 6 bullets in view of our Wild West heritage famous for the six gun. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandy_Hook,_Connecticut)

3.  Hurricane Sandy  This category 1 storm of October, 1012, that devastated northeastern U.S., is notable not only for its damage, but also the resistance of the House of Representatives to act on helping restore the area, something that had become informally mandated in our code.  This lack to act has northeastern politicians screaming bloody murder, even at their own political party.  The storm had a triple whammy in not only the wind speed, but it occurred at high tide at the time of the month for highest tides.  The storm also lasted longer because it was "blocked" by a high pressure ridge to the north. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy).  A discussion seems to have been started over whether the Federal government should get involved in the reconstruction of devastated areas (They didn't for the famous San Francisco earthquake of April, 1906, for example, or more recently for the Exxon Valdez oil spill in March of 1989 in Alaska), whether any funds provided for such reconstruction should be offset in other parts of the budget, or whether special funds should be appropriated. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy)

4. The Inactivity Of Congress It may seem strange to have the lack of something be big news, but, like the dog that didn't bark in the night of Sherlock Holmes fame, I think it is a big story.  As you can see from the attached graph, the productivity of congress has been generally decreasing since at least 1980, and, in 2012, hit a new low of 200 bills (Please note this is over two years, not one), down from about 900 bills in 1980.  Most bills are to do things like name post offices, and days, weeks or months of the year like National Pickle Day, or to extend existing laws.  Congress met only 151 days in 2001, for example.  The rest of time is spent fundraising, politicking, "fact finding," and hopefully studying.  Personally, I think congress is ignoring many serious issues, like dealing with the Federal deficit.  If you think we have passed enough laws in our more than 200 yr history and don't need many more, do we really need to pay for a "full time" congress?  Do we really need a full-time congress to pass only 200, mostly frivolous bills, over 730 days?
(http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/america-in-2012-as-told-in-charts/?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20130101)

5. The Debt Ceiling Crisis Certainly one of the top five news stories of 2011 was the Debt Ceiling Compromise of July 31.  Raising the debt ceiling is really not news.  It has been done dozens of times, but there were some aspects of this that made it rise near the top.  As a result nearly a trillon dollars of cuts to the Federal budget were enacted.

6.  The Fiscal Cliff  A big part of the "fiscal cliff" was the Sequester in which $500 billion would be taken from the DoD budget and $500 billion from the non-defense discretionary budget over the next 10 years, and the second was the formation of a Super Committee (actually enacted by the Budget control Act of 2011) to come to a better compromise.  If they didn't the Sequester would take effect.  It was thought that the Sequester would be viewed so bad by both Democrats and Republicans that surely the Super Committee would come up with something better.  My guess was that they wouldn't.  That the Sequester would be so distasteful to both parities that they would assume that it wouldn't happen.  Something was passed that neither party intended to let happen and so far it hasn't as the date that it was to take effect passed on January 1, 2013.  That is the state of America today.  Supposedly the date of the Sequester was kicked down the road a couple of months by the "Fiscal cliff" negotiations, but a Sequester kicked down the road once can be kicked down the road again.  My personal feelings are that the Sequester should have been allowed to take effect for the first year as the "fiscal cliff" is really not a cliff but a slope and could have been changed later if desired.  In fact the Sequester is not large enough to solve the Federal deficit problem by itself.  After much hemming and hawing, the fiscal cliff was largely solved by maintaining or somewhat modifying the Bush tax cuts those earning less than $400 thousand or $450 thousand for couples, and through raising revenues by termination of the Social Security Tax Holiday and terminating "temporary" tax cuts of those earning more than $400 thousand or $450 thousand for couples returning the rate from 35% to where it was in the 1990s of 39.6% .  This is pretty much a non-story and is only made so by the intransigence of certain political irresponsibility's.  The president won some but the Republicans won more.  The president campaigned on the level of tax cut termination to be $250 thousand and not $400 thousand.  He also wanted the inheritance tax to have an exemption of $3 million but settled on $5 million in the Bush tax cuts but got a rate of 40% for any excess rather than 35%.  Probably the key part of the compromise was kicking the can down the road on the Sequester.

7. Others I'll stop with the above but some other big events that I consider second tier were the The cruise ship Costa Concordia running aground, London Olympics, The Queen's Diamond Jubilee, the French elections, the Facebook IPO that was ill received after it got top dollar.  For a blow by blow listing of world's events in 2012 see: http://www.historyorb.com/events/date/2012.

Friday, January 11, 2013

WORKING UNDERGROUND: MY RATIONAL SELF AND EMOTIONAL SELF (Biographical)

I suppose that most of us have been in a commercial cave at some point.  You know the ones with the stalactites (from the ceiling), and stalagmites (those rising from the ground).  You walk on limestone if dry or on a wooden boardwalk if wet.  Some of us have been in a real mine on a tourist visit.  I know of a good gold mine in Cripple Creek, Colorado, that I took my wife down 1,000 ft and walked around.  Here the gold mineral is silver looking because the gold is a gold telluride.

I doubt that many of us have been down in a working mine.  I had a brief career doing so.  The only reasons that I think a non-miner would want to do this is curiosity or that they are not permitted to do so.  My longest bout of working in a mine was in 1957 at the Balmat #2 mine* at Balmat, New York, which, at the time, was America's largest zinc mine with an ore of sphalerite (zinc sulfide) in marble, but, as underground mines go, was only a medium-sized mine. I was collecting samples for a Ph.D. thesis in geology so I had the run of both active and inactive parts of the mine.  I was working for the, now defunct, St. Joseph Lead Company whose main properties were in Missouri with an ore predominantly of galena (lead sulfide).

Since I was being paid, there was a thought that maybe they could get something good from me.  They settled on my trying to see what geological information I could recover from the stopes* *  (large rooms from which ore was removed) shot out in WW-II.  At that time they mined as fast as they could, following the ore, with no record kept of the geology.  When I would go underground I would sort of deaden my senses as the moldy stench issued from the inclined shaft.  I would get off the hoist at the appointed level, maybe 500 ft, and go to the floor of a stope, a void that was maybe 200 ft deep, 200 feet across, and 500 ft long.  I had to use a compass to navigate my way across a stope, to record the geology on the other side, because there was so much moisture in the air.  I would have to climb over or find a way around large blocks of marble, a cubic yard or more in dimensions.  Some of these blocks had dust three quarters of in inch deep, some a quarter inch and some were clean.

My rational self told me that, if a block came down while I was in a stope,  the probabilities were that it would not land where I was, but my emotional self didn't believe it.  Though the temperature in these stopes was around 55 degrees and at no point did I ever feet hot, I would come out at noon or so dripping with nervous sweat.

In more modern stopes, there were pillars to hold the back (roof) up and every once in a while there would be a loud BANG!  A "bullet" of marble would be shot off from a pillar from stored up stress in the rock during marble formation.  A limestone formation for some reason would be taken down thousands of feet into the Earth where it became hot and under high pressure.  It became plastic and shear stresses folded and refolded and maybe folded it again, but at some point it gradually rose to the surface through uplift and erosion.  All the folding and refolding made following the geology to be difficult.  I think that if you ever were hit by one of these "bullets," it could kill you, but I never heard of anyone hit.  Again the probabilities were with you.  My boss was in the Balmat #3 mine talking to a miner at the hoist entrance when a cubic yard of marble fell killing the man he was talking to only a yard or so away.  Mind you, the hoist area is supposed to be the safest place in an underground mine.  But overall, the Balmat mines were really safe with little timber work needed.  If you see timber is used in a mine, you may think that is a safe spot, but actually it is a dangerous spot because timber wouldn't be used if it was safe.

Once when I was in the active part of the mine, I heard the loud hissing sound of compressed air used in the drilling equipment, a sign that a charge was going to go off to break up the ore for mining.  Because of the echo, I couldn't tell where the hissing was coming from, and, as I ran around the passages,  my God, I realized I had come right upon a face of ore where I could see the wiring and holes for blasting.  Damn, I had gotten myself right in front of the blast so I quickly turned around and franticly ran away.  Luckily the charge didn't go off while I was at the face, but you can bet my heart was pounding fiercely.

At the Edwards mine some miles away from the Balmat #2 mine, there were Y-shaped stopes.  Several of us were in one of these one day, several thousand feet underground, when we heard of block of rock bouncing its way down one of the limbs of the Y.  There was an echo and we couldn't tell where the block was coming down so we ran out of the stope.  My boss fell and was sliding along the wet muck, his right arm  up in the air when by accident he caught a cable protecting a winze (an underground shaft) dropping 200 ft.  Fortunately this stopped his slide or he would have gone down and certainly been killed.

For a year after my underground experiences, I was very sensitive to any cracking sound, such in a building cooling at night in the winter.  I would flinch and quickly look around.  I suppose today you would say I was suffering from post traumatic stress disorder.

* http://instruct.uwo.ca/earth-sci/fieldlog/Grenville/balmat.htm
** http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoping_(mining)

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

FOSSILS (Poem) by Ogden Nash

The following poem was written by Ogden Nash in 1949 to be recited in Part XII Fossiles of  "The Carnival Of the Animals" by Saint-Saens composed in 1886 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Carnival_of_the_Animals)


At midnight in the museum hall
The fossils gathered for a ball
There were no drums or saxophones,
But just the clatter of their bones,
A rolling, rattling, carefree circus
Of mammoth polkas and mazurkas.
Pterodactyls and brontosauruses
Sang ghostly prehistoric choruses.
Amid the mastodontic wassail
I caught the eye of one small fossil.
"Cheer up, sad world," he said, and winked—
"It's kind of fun to be extinct."

For reasons unknown, I learned this poem in a shortened form:

At midnight in the museum hall
The fossils gathered for a ball
There were no drums or saxophones
But just the clatter of their bones
Amid the mastodontic wassail
I caught the eye of one small fossil
"Cheer up, sad world," he said and winked --
"It's not so bad to be extinct."

Tuesday, January 8, 2013

HOW THE FEUD STARTED (Poem) by Arthur Guiterman

I've decided on occasion to republish certain poems that I find interesting.  The following poem I read in High School and later memorized, though through lack of use, have mostly forgotten.  Enjoy!

How the Feud Started
by
Arthur Guiterman


Before there were Pineapples, Peaches, or Plums,
The Dog and the Cat were Companions and Chums.

(They lived in a Highly Respectable Grotto,
Where "God Bless Our Home" was their Favorite Motto)

The Dog had a Parchment, a Parchment had he,
Proclaiming his Right to be Happy and Free.

(This Charter was signed by the Patriarch Noah,
And Witnessed in Form by the Goat and the Boa.)

The Dog went a-hunting on Mount Ararat;
The Parchment he left in the Care of the Cat.

{His Trust in the Cat was Complete and Abiding,
The Dog, then as ever, was Much Too Confiding.)

The Cat, who was always a Rover in Soul,
Grew bored with the Cavern and went for a Stroll.
(Beguiled by the Song of the Birds in the Bowers,
He ambled and rambled for Hours and Hours.)
Then out from their Crannies the Mouse People crept,
And lunched on the Parchment that Puss should have kept.
(They flocked with their Children, their Nephews and Nieces.
They shredded the Charter and ate up the Pieces.)
When Home came the Dog near the Close of the Day,
The Last of his Freedom was whisking away!
(He Leaped! - but the Tails disappeared in a Flicker.
The Dog may be Quick, but the Mouse Folk are quicker.)
When Home strolled the Cat as the Twilight grem dim,
The Dog paid the Utmost Attention to Him!
(The Cat, who in Climbing was always a Leader,
Escaped by a Whisker and ran up a Cedar.)
So, seeking his Vengeance--and justly at that--
The Dog, through the Ages, still chases the Cat.
(The Cat, with Equivalent Justification,
Has chosen the Mouse as his favorite Ration.)


From The Mirthful Lyre (Harper & Brothers, 1918).
This poem is in the public domain.

MEDICARE FINANCES

The problems with the future financing of Medicare are well advertised and have been known for decades.  I do not support the proposal to do away with Medicare entirely and replace it with a "voucher" system.  Instead we must reduce the costs of Medicare.  One component of the $716 billion in expenses "removed" by Obama from Medicare, the so-called "Doc Fix," of reducing the payments to physicians was always unlikely and is now gone.  Hospitals, however, had agreed to cutting their costs because of increased patient "flow" from Obamacare.  There has been resistance to other cuts which were called by insulting names like "death panels" and "rationing."*  About the only cut in Medicare services proposed likely to pass is raising the age of eligibility from 65 to 67, but this could be self defeating by leaving a large group of people without health care and pushing them into emergency rooms, the highest medical cost option.  At times there is mention of tort reform to cut the costs of "defensive medicine," but this proposal never seems to gain traction.  I would hope this would get done.

More than a decade ago, a writer's group of which I was a member was nearly entirely composed of seniors.  Once we had a discussion concerning what cuts in Medicare did we think we could live with.  The unanimous choice was "rationing" of major operations, say a limit of one each of heart, liver, lung or kidney transplants and two hip or knee replacements per patient.  So far as I know, no politician has proposed such a limit.  Yes, this is rationing, but Medicare is full of rationing already as I have discussed before.**  More recently, I recently got a shot for shingles.  These are not covered by Medicare and cost me $225, but I know of five people who have had shingles, including my wife, and it is serious business.  One friend lost an eye to it, and another was on heavy doses of pain killers for a year.  I think that ultimately more rationing is inevitable.

I don't know how we get to this point, but "fixing" Medicare is going to require a stop to trying to gain political points through unpleasant names and false accusations*** and both political parties are going to have to jump off the "cliff" together.****

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/12/death-panels-715-billion-from-medicare.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/05/medicare-rationing.html
***  http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/10/dr.html, http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-obamacare-committee.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/02/after-you-alphonse.html

Friday, January 4, 2013

NEVER SATISFIED

The news is full of statements of how the Republicans were taken by the President.  If they regret there were no big budget cuts, I can understand, but the tax situation seemed to fulfill all they wanted.  The $5 million estate tax was retained (but at 40% rather than 35% for excess over that) when the president wanted $3.5 million and 35%.  Everyone gets a tax cut on the first $400,000 ($450,000 for couples) of income with the wealthiest paying what they did in the nifty nineties at 39.6%.  Except for the wealthiest 1% of Americans, the Bush tax cuts were made permanent.  I thought the Republicans were angling to make the Bush tax cuts permanent for this for years.  Because Obama campaigned on making the level $200,000 (and $250,00 for couples), it would seem he lost this battle and Republicans won.

Individual tax extenders for individuals, business, and energy also add to the deficit.  This may be a draw as I believe both sides wanted at least parts of this.  Republicans may not have wanted to extend the unemployment insurance so count this as an Obama win.  The "doc fix" also was included and costs an amazing $25 billion over the 10 years.  I think this was also a draw.

Were Republicans really against restoring the 2% cut in payroll tax?  I would count this as a Republican win though there is a tendency to call it a tax increase.  Is no temporary tax cut temporary?  I thought Republicans feel that Social Security is in trouble.  Oh, they want to do away with it entirely and make it a 401-k.  Still I think Republicans won this.

Now there is a lot of brave talk about how much making the Bush tax cuts permanent will contribute to the deficit, but it turns out that all depends on how you start.  If you assume that the Bush tax cuts would be fully suspended, there would be close to $4 trillion added to the deficit, but if you count where the budget was in 2012, there is actually a decrease in the deficit by, I think, something like $760 billion.

Unfortunately the Sequester was kicked down the road, but it seems to me that both sides don't like it.  The Republicans don't like the cut in defense and the Democrats don't like the cuts in non-defense.  The Republicans can never seem to spend too much on defense, even though we spend more than the next 10 largest defense spending countries combined.  So both sides have oxen that they don't want gored.  That is why we have a deficit problem.

Over all, it seems to me that the Republicans won on the tax compromises.  They just never seem satisfied.

I don't see much happening to Medicare unless both sides agree to jump off a cliff together.  After all, Obama has paid politically for every modification he has proposed as things as "Death Panels" and "Rationing."  There is a lot of rationing in Medicare today.  For example, I recently found that Medicare does not cover shots for shingles.  As I know of five people who have had it (one losing and eye and another taking large doses of pain killers for a year), including my wife, I got it and paid the $225 myself.

Some figures in this post are from http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/congress-jumps-off-fiscal-cliff-pulls-parachute-rip-cord/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+OTB+(Outside+The+Beltway+%7C+OTB)